AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Intuit (INTU) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
STRONG BUY
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
STRONG BUY$375
+23.8%+24.4% incl. dividends5-Year
STRONG BUY$685
+125.9%+131.6% incl. dividendsLatest flagship insight
Proprietary Ledger Moats And Aggressive Share Retirements Challenge Autonomous Software Disruption Fears
Reports show high consensus that mission-critical accounting ledgers, assisted compliance demand, and massive share repurchases anchor durable cash generation. The primary friction centers on entry-level tax pricing concessions and small-business rate sensitivity. Investors weigh disciplined capital returns against long-term risk of agentic workflow commoditization.
This is the latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), Universal Investor (Polymath), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Elon Musk (Visionary), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Michael Burry (Vulture), Machiavelli (Insider). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
Gemini
Claude
ChatGPTExecutive Summary
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If you invested $10,000 in Intuit at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $23,163 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
* Return is calculated incl. 0.5% net dividend yield for Intuit.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (USD) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 314.35 | +3.68% | +3.68% | First-quarter results test revised guidance and restructuring benefits. While non-GAAP reporting changes and tax pricing adjustments create headline noise, persistent QuickBooks Online subscription expansion and aggressive share repurchases absorb selling pressure, establishing an operational valuation floor. |
| Q1 2027 | 328.65 | +4.55% | +8.40% | Early filing season channel checks test whether lower entry-level pricing stabilizes DIY tax churn. Resilient mid-market accounting growth and Credit Karma lead generation offset high-rate macro volatility, allowing tentative multiple stabilization ahead of peak earnings. |
| Q2 2027 | 356.06 | +8.34% | +17.44% | Spring filing season results confirm that TurboTax Live assisted adoption offsets softer self-directed volume. Strong seasonal cash flows, structural cost savings from earlier headcount reductions, and heavy buyback execution drive the initial decisive equity rerating impulse. |
| Q3 2027 | 375.22 | +5.38% | +23.76% | Full-year fiscal 2027 audited results confirm double-digit Global Business Solutions growth and expanding operating margins. Investors acknowledge durable platform earnings, but normalized cash taxes and persistent four percent benchmark interest rates cap speculative valuation multiple expansion. |
| Q4 2027 | 390.52 | +4.08% | +28.81% | First-quarter fiscal 2028 execution highlights growing payments attachment and payroll monetization across QuickBooks accounts. Ongoing float retirement and disciplined expense management support steady capital appreciation, overcoming broader enterprise software multiple compression. |
| Q1 2028 | 408.80 | +4.68% | +34.83% | A second post-reset filing season verifies that paid consumer tax retention has stabilized without destructive discounting. Expanding Intuit Enterprise Suite adoption among mid-market firms provides non-seasonal revenue stability, reinforcing institutional investor confidence. |
| Q2 2028 | 434.39 | +6.26% | +43.27% | Record peak season cash generation underscores operational leverage in assisted workflows. Proprietary automated assistance lowers service delivery costs, enabling substantial free cash flow that management directs into accelerated share retirements and regular dividend growth. |
| Q3 2028 | 449.33 | +3.44% | +48.20% | Fiscal 2028 closes with operating margins durably widened past twenty-eight percent. Sustained net share count reduction translates solid operating growth into superior per-share earnings expansion, despite conservative fiscal 2029 forward guidance anchoring multiples. |
| Q4 2028 | 458.46 | +2.03% | +51.21% | Competitive product launches from lightweight automated bookkeeping startups introduce temporary sentiment friction. However, core general-ledger retention remains resilient, and steady payments volume growth sustains fundamental earnings progress into the fiscal second quarter. |
| Q1 2029 | 477.12 | +4.07% | +57.37% | Stabilizing macroeconomic liquidity and firm domestic consumption stimulate small-business formations. Rebounding loan origination fees across consumer marketplaces complement solid pre-season tax activations, maintaining consistent upward trajectory across primary reporting divisions. |
| Q2 2029 | 502.88 | +5.40% | +65.86% | Seasonal filing results demonstrate that assisted digital workflows dominate complex consumer tax categories. Prolific free cash flow conversion funds continuous open-market share buybacks, driving sustained capital appreciation as per-share intrinsic value steadily compounds. |
| Q3 2029 | 521.49 | +3.70% | +72.00% | Fiscal 2029 audited results validate enduring platform pricing power and gross margins holding above eighty-one percent. The market rewards five years of disciplined capital allocation, narrowing the equity risk premium toward established software infrastructure peers. |
| Q4 2029 | 538.75 | +3.31% | +77.69% | Mid-market accounting contracts expand multi-product attachment, embedding merchant banking and automated payroll deeper into client workflows. High switching barriers minimize enterprise churn, insulating subscription cash flows from broader macroeconomic late-cycle deceleration. |
| Q1 2030 | 559.44 | +3.84% | +84.52% | Pre-tax filing metrics show steady paid customer onboarding across consumer and business segments. Continuous domain-specific model enhancements improve internal staff productivity, expanding gross margins and supporting modest equity advancement heading into peak spring collections. |
| Q2 2030 | 585.62 | +4.68% | +93.15% | Another pristine spring cash harvest delivers massive operating liquidity. With diluted share count permanently reduced by over fifteen percent from 2026 levels, per-share earnings power reaches new highs, driving steady equity valuation advancement. |
| Q3 2030 | 600.32 | +2.51% | +98.00% | Full-year fiscal 2030 performance shows annual free cash flow approaching eleven billion dollars. The business demonstrates that mission-critical financial software thrives alongside technological evolution, supporting elevated returns on invested capital without speculative multiple excess. |
| Q4 2030 | 619.05 | +3.12% | +104.18% | Embedded business-to-business payments and international platform expansion provide incremental revenue momentum. Disciplined reinvestment preserves wide cash margins, allowing steady share repurchases to compound earnings per share through periodic macroeconomic growth pauses. |
| Q1 2031 | 639.10 | +3.24% | +110.79% | Mature autonomous bookkeeping and tax compliance agents handle routine small-business transactions seamlessly. Unshakable compliance moats prevent open-source alternatives from capturing enterprise share, ensuring highly visible, high-margin cash generation into the final forecast year. |
| Q2 2031 | 666.58 | +4.30% | +119.86% | Flawless execution during the 2031 filing season delivers record seasonal cash flows. Exceptional operating margins and cumulative share retirement reward long-term institutional holders, driving quoted equity toward long-term intrinsic value targets. |
| Q3 2031 | 684.98 | +2.76% | +125.93% | The five-year forecast closes with the company established as an indispensable financial operating system. A substantially shrunken share count, resilient pricing power, and peer-leading cash conversion deliver a triumphant multi-year fundamental compounding outcome. |
The investment case rests on the structural durability of mission-critical business ledgers, where high migration friction, embedded payments, and regulatory compliance liabilities insulate cash flows from generic algorithmic disruption. Severe multiple contraction reflects market anxiety over artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry and deliberate entry-level pricing resets. However, sustained Global Business Solutions expansion and rapid assisted-tax adoption generate immense owner earningsowner earningsAn estimate of cash available to owners after operating costs, taxes, and the capital spending needed to maintain competitive capacity.View full glossary entry. With capital expenditurescapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry near one percent of revenue and net leverage negligible, free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry comfortably funds substantial share retirements, driving per-share compounding even if terminal valuationterminal valuationTerminal valuation is the estimated value of an asset or business beyond the explicit forecast period in a discounted cash flow model.View full glossary entry multiples remain permanently below previous software peak levels.
Key insights
- Ledger data gravitydata gravityThe tendency for applications, services, and users to cluster around large or difficult-to-move datasets.View full glossary entry and statutory compliance obligations create asymmetric switching barriers, preventing uncertified autonomous agentsautonomous agentsSoftware systems that perceive context, make decisions, and execute tasks with limited direct human intervention.View full glossary entry from dislodging core accounting records despite software interface commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry.
- Deliberate entry-tier tax pricing concessions protect top-of-funnel customer volume, successfully channeling complex filers into higher-margin assisted tiers that expand average revenue per customer.
- Relentless capital returnscapital returnsDistributions of capital to investors, commonly through dividends or share repurchases.View full glossary entry at depressed valuation multiples mechanically accelerate per-share earnings growth, decoupling equity compounding from broader macroeconomic and multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry dependencies.
The business acts like a vital digital utilitydigital utilityA digital service treated like essential infrastructure because users rely on it continuously for core operations.View full glossary entry for small businesses and taxpayers. While investors worry that new artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry tools will replace traditional accounting software, running payroll and filing official taxes carry legal risks that businesses will not trust to unverified bots. By trimming low-end tax prices, automating customer support, and using massive cash flow to buy back its own stock, the company steadily grows value for shareholders.
Key insights
- Small businesses stay locked in because moving financial history and payroll systems is complicated, expensive, and risky.
- Human-assisted tax services generate much higher fees, offsetting lower prices on basic self-filing software across the platform.
- Aggressive stock repurchases steadily reduce the total share count, increasing each remaining share's slice of corporate profit.
Deep Dive
Prevailing market sentiment treats the enterprise as an aging software incumbent vulnerable to artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry and regulatory disruption. Media commentary and sell-side downgrades emphasize decelerating fiscal 2027 revenue guidance, entry-level tax customer churn, and higher interest rates pressuring small businesses. This collective narrative assumes software interfaces lack defensibility and that open-source agents will rapidly destroy core accounting and tax preparation moats.
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Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market sentiment treats the enterprise as an aging software incumbent vulnerable to artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry and regulatory disruption. Media commentary and sell-side downgrades emphasize decelerating fiscal 2027 revenue guidance, entry-level tax customer churn, and higher interest rates pressuring small businesses. This collective narrative assumes software interfaces lack defensibility and that open-source agents will rapidly destroy core accounting and tax preparation moats.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd underestimates value by mistaking cyclical guidance moderation and a deliberate entry-level pricing reset for structural business obsolescence. Market pricing conflates generic text-generating models with mission-critical financial systems of record, which carry legal liability, banking integrations, and entrenched audit defensibility. Furthermore, the crowd overlooks that the executive suspension of federal direct filing removes an existential competitive overhang. With an asset-light model generating robust owner cash flow, aggressive buybacks exploit this valuation discount to drive substantial per-share compounding.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? The primary convergence catalyst is the spring 2027 tax season report. Demonstrating stabilized consumer filing units following the entry-level price reset, paired with accelerated TurboTax Live assisted monetization and double-digit Global Business Solutions expansion, will directly refute the commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry thesis. Visible floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry shrinkage from sustained multi-billion-dollar share repurchases provides an undeniable fundamental mechanism that forces sell-side earnings revisions and initiates steady valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry normalization across institutional portfolios.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Fear
- Volatility
- Moderate
- Cycle position
- Stabilization
Sentiment remains heavily anchored in fear, though opinions split between high-volatility capitulation and moderate-volatility stabilization. The decisive tension is whether the valuation de-rating represents terminal franchise disruption or a cyclical floor, directly impacting whether investors anticipate immediate multiple recovery or patient compounding.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macro regimemacro regimeA persistent combination of growth, inflation, policy, and liquidity conditions affecting asset prices.View full glossary entry of elevated benchmark interest rates near four percent and sticky inflation presents a mixed setup. Restrictive monetary policy exerts cyclical drag on small-business credit and partner loan origination on consumer platforms. However, negligible corporate debt and prolific self-funded cash generation insulate the company from refinancing stress, enabling accretive share repurchases during tech multipletech multipleA valuation ratio associated with technology businesses, commonly reflecting expected growth, scalability, margins, and risk.View full glossary entry compression.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The central debate across research reports concerns the trajectory of Intuit's valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry and the nature of its tax customer churn. One group views recent entry-tier share losses and guidance deceleration as evidence of emerging technological obsolescencetechnological obsolescenceThe risk that a product, asset, or capability loses economic usefulness because superior technology emerges.View full glossary entry, arguing that frontier models permanently cap price-to-earnings multiples near mid-teens. Opposing reports argue that the churn reflects a deliberate pricing error for sub-$50,000 filers, with core ledger data gravitydata gravityThe tendency for applications, services, and users to cluster around large or difficult-to-move datasets.View full glossary entry and assisted services remaining fully intact. The resolution hinges on whether the spring 2027 tax season demonstrates unit stabilization alongside sustained double-digit business platform expansion.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreModerate44/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QuickBooks ledger switching cost moatswitching cost moatA competitive advantage created when customers face meaningful financial, operational, technical, or learning costs to change providers.View full glossary entry | Competitive Positioning | +36% | +30% | QuickBooks serves as the primary operational system of record for millions of small enterprises, integrating bookkeeping, payroll, and merchant payments. Deep data gravitydata gravityThe tendency for applications, services, and users to cluster around large or difficult-to-move datasets.View full glossary entry and high migration costs create formidable retention. This lock-in preserves pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry, supporting double-digit revenue expansion and steady cash flows even as entry-level software faces emerging competitive alternatives. |
| Accretive share repurchase cash flywheel | Capital Allocation | +28% | +18% | Converting over forty percent of revenue into free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry enables aggressive countercyclical equity retirement. Deploying over five billion dollars annually into buybacks at trough valuation multiples shrinks outstanding shares by two to four percent net per year. This mechanical share reduction systematically compounds per-share earnings growth ahead of top-line revenue expansion. |
| Assisted tax and enterprise upselling | Innovation And Product | +25% | +22% | Monetizing specialized expertise through TurboTax Live and Intuit Enterprise Suite captures high-margin customer cohorts. Shifting complex filers into assisted tiers generates substantially higher revenue per customer, while mid-market enterprise accounts expand annual contract values. This structural upselling cushions the platform against low-end DIY price pressure and accelerates higher-margin service revenues. |
| Automated workflow cost structure rationalization | Operational Efficiency | +20% | +22% | A permanent seventeen percent workforce reduction combined with internal AI workflow automation slashes administrative overhead and customer support costs. Embedding automated reconciliation and assistance tools expands operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry toward thirty percent. By lowering service delivery expenses, incremental subscription revenues drop straight to operating income, driving durable operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry across the forecast horizon. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry DIY tax pricing concessions | Competitive Positioning | -16% | -12% | Management conceded customer losses among filers earning under fifty thousand dollars, guiding fiscal 2027 consumer tax growth down to two to three percent. Lowering entry-tier software pricing to stem churn dilutes average revenue per self-directed filer, converting a previously high-growth engine into a near-term revenue drag until assisted upselling offsets the reset. |
| Restrictive monetary policy small-business strain | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -14% | -10% | Benchmark interest rates near four percent and tight bank lending standards elevate borrowing costs and failure rates among small enterprises. Dampened new business formation restricts gross customer additions for accounting software, while reduced consumer borrowing velocity suppresses loan referral commissions on financial marketplaces, creating persistent cyclical drag across merchant and credit platforms. |
| Autonomous bookkeeping software commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry anxiety | Innovation And Product | -12% | -7.0% | Advances in frontier reasoning models enable low-cost startups to automate routine receipt processing and bank reconciliation, exerting pricing pressure on basic bookkeeping tiers. Even if complex audit liabilities preserve enterprise retention, pervasive market fear of application software commoditizationcommoditizationThe process where services become indistinguishable, leading to price-based competition and severe margin erosion.View full glossary entry caps valuation multiples, preventing the stock from reclaiming former premium software multiplessoftware multiplesValuation ratios applied to software businesses, commonly based on revenue, recurring revenue, earnings, or cash flow.View full glossary entry. |
| Mailchimp integration and marketing churn | Operational Efficiency | -9.0% | -8.0% | The standalone marketing automation unit continues to face sluggish growth and elevated micro-business customer churn under competitive marketing cloud pressures. Slower cross-selling into core accounting cohorts dilutes consolidated returns on capital, requiring ongoing engineering investments to maintain integration parity and diverting resources from core financial compliance platform enhancements. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open-source agentic accounting ledger disintermediation | 24% | -38% | Open-source multimodal reasoning models could achieve zero-shot financial reconciliation and native open-banking integration by 2028, enabling businesses to manage ledgers without commercial software. If unbundled tools bypass proprietary accounting interfaces, entry-level subscription churn could surge past twenty percent. This would collapse high-margin software revenues and compress valuation multiples, though audit liabilities keep probability below half. |
| StagflationarystagflationAn economic condition characterized by stagnant growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.View full glossary entry small business insolvency cascade | 22% | -30% | A severe macroeconomic stagflation shockstagflation shockA sudden change that weakens growth while increasing inflation.View full glossary entry driven by sustained high interest rates could trigger unprecedented insolvency rates across small businesses by late 2027. Systemic merchant failures would cause severe subscription cancellations in accounting software, collapse payment processing volumes, and spike credit losses. This shock would compress operating earnings by over twenty percent, though customer diversification keeps realization likelihood below half. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomous enterprise financial platform dominance | 30% | +38% | Intuit could achieve regulatory certification for fully autonomous, end-to-end small-business accounting and tax execution by 2028. Handling reconciliation, invoice financing, and tax preparation without human intermediaries would allow Intuit to capture substantial external bookkeeping budgets. This breakthrough would accelerate free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry past twelve billion dollars, though enterprise conservatism keeps probability below half. |
| Mid-market legacy ERP displacement breakthrough | 28% | +32% | Intuit Enterprise Suite could trigger cascading migrations from complex, expensive legacy mid-market ERP vendors by mid-2028. Providing multi-entity consolidation, integrated payroll, and merchant payments at a fraction of traditional software implementation costs would double mid-market subscriber counts. Consolidated revenue growth would accelerate toward eighteen percent, though enterprise implementation inertia restricts probability below half. |
Company Financial Analysis
Intuit Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
In fiscal 2026, revenue increased 14% to $21.4 billion, while operating income rose nearly 20% to $5.88 billion. Growth was led by business accounting and higher-priced assisted tax services, which compensated for slower volume in basic consumer tax filing. Net income reached $4.57 billion despite restructuring expenses. The key debate is whether slowing fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to 9%-10% signals serious competition or a temporary pricing reset. Because subscription renewals remain strong and free cash flow reached $8.62 billion, the underlying business continues to generate high-quality recurring profit rather than suffering operational decay.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 21.4B | USD 4.6B | USD 8.6B |
| 2025 | USD 18.8B | USD 3.9B | USD 6.1B |
| 2024 | USD 16.3B | USD 3B | USD 4.6B |
| 2023 | USD 14.4B | USD 2.4B | USD 4.8B |
| 2022 | USD 12.7B | USD 2.1B | USD 3.7B |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2025 | 57.0x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2024 | 61.8x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2023 | 60.7x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
| 2022 | 62.7x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Profit margins remained exceptionally strong in fiscal 2026, with gross profit margin reaching 81.3% and operating margin expanding to 27.4%. Profitability improved because customers adopted higher-value assisted tax services and small-business software subscriptions, which cost very little to deliver incrementally. A major workforce restructuring that cut 3,000 positions in mid-2026 will permanently reduce operating overhead. While lower prices on entry-level tax software will temporarily slow consumer margin gains, structural cost savings and premium enterprise upselling should keep overall profit margins expanding over time.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 5.9B | 27.4% | 21.3% |
| 2025 | USD 4.9B | 26.1% | 20.5% |
| 2024 | USD 3.6B | 22.3% | 18.2% |
| 2023 | USD 3.1B | 21.9% | 16.6% |
| 2022 | USD 2.6B | 20.2% | 16.2% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
The balance sheet is in excellent health, with $7.2 billion in cash and investments balancing out $7.7 billion in total debt. An interest coverage ratio of 23 times means the business generates far more than enough operating profit to handle its borrowing costs comfortably. This low-debt position insulates the company from high interest rates that trouble more heavily indebted competitors. Ample financial resources and strong annual cash flow give management the flexibility to comfortably fund business operations, protect dividend payouts, and buy back discounted shares without risking financial stability.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 8.4B | USD 7.2B | USD 3.7B net debt | 1.51x |
| 2025 | USD 6.6B | USD 4.6B | USD 3.8B net debt | 1.36x |
| 2024 | USD 6.6B | USD 4.1B | USD 3B net debt | 1.29x |
| 2023 | USD 7.5B | USD 3.7B | USD 3.8B net debt | 1.47x |
| 2022 | USD 7.5B | USD 3.3B | USD 4.7B net debt | 1.39x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
The company operates an extraordinarily capital-light business model, spending only about 1% of its revenue on physical equipment and facilities. Instead of spending billions building data centers, management relies on rented cloud infrastructure to deliver software updates and digital services smoothly. Investment is concentrated in research and development, which rose 15% to $3.38 billion to embed artificial intelligence into accounting and tax tools. Because maintaining physical assets requires minimal cash, nearly all operating profit turns into free cash flow that management directs into substantial share repurchases.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 221M | USD 3.4B |
| 2025 | USD 124M | USD 2.9B |
| 2024 | USD 250M | USD 2.8B |
| 2023 | USD 260M | USD 2.5B |
| 2022 | USD 229M | USD 2.3B |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Intuit Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in USD; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Quarter | Bear case (USD) | Base case (USD) | Bull case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291.06 | $317.48 | $324.41 | $750.26 | |
| $302.70 | $334.10 | $343.88 | $736.44 | |
| $324.21 | $361.56 | $378.10 | $743.40 | |
| $330.69 | $381.25 | $400.79 | $755.15 | |
| $340.61 | $398.28 | $420.83 | $776.22 | |
| $347.43 | $418.40 | $446.08 | $787.13 | |
| $361.32 | $446.67 | $481.77 | $802.83 | |
| $354.10 | $464.92 | $501.47 | $812.05 | |
| $364.72 | $479.63 | $526.09 | $839.18 | |
| $372.01 | $501.17 | $547.61 | $850.50 | |
| $383.18 | $530.48 | $585.94 | $872.39 | |
| $390.84 | $550.68 | $615.23 | $885.51 | |
| $398.66 | $570.29 | $639.84 | $909.56 | |
| $406.63 | $593.86 | $671.84 | $916.13 | |
| $418.83 | $623.45 | $712.15 | $936.51 | |
| $410.45 | $642.45 | $740.63 | $947.34 | |
| $422.76 | $662.89 | $770.26 | $969.59 | |
| $431.22 | $685.50 | $808.77 | $979.99 | |
| $444.16 | $716.74 | $857.30 | $999.60 | |
| $453.04 | $736.75 | $891.59 | $1,012 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
Independent evidence reveals a robust consensus on the core economic engine: small-business ledgers carry high switching costs, assisted tax services command premium pricing, and asset-light operations deliver superior cash conversion. However, several reports rely on correlated, factually stale premises regarding active government filing expansion, overlooking that federal direct filing was suspended by executive policy in late 2025. Reports grounded in audited SEC filings, verified Investor Day guidance, and normalized cash metrics warrant higher weighting. They correctly interpret entry-level tax customer churn as a deliberate pricing misstep for lower-income filers rather than terminal technological displacement. The strongest contrarian case notes that rapid advances in autonomous agentic software could eventually lower ledger switching friction and commoditize workflow guidance, permanently capping valuation multiples. Relative weights heavily favor analyses that incorporate verified regulatory developments, account for stock-based compensation transparency, and realistically model per-share compounding under sustained benchmark interest rates.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraHighest-quality empirical foundation directly citing Form 10-K disclosures and Investor Day transcripts. It correctly notes the Direct File suspension, adjusts owner cash flow for tax-relief windfalls, and models realistic per-share compounding without assuming multiple expansion.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5Exemplary empirical rigor grounded in primary source verification, including earnings calls and SEC filings. It accurately addresses the DIY pricing reset for sub-$50,000 filers, payments attach vs. seat growth, SBC reporting revisions, and restrained valuation expectations.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis analysis accurately integrates the late-2025 federal termination of IRS Direct File and the Fifth Circuit's FTC vacatur. It rigorously evaluates the 3,000-job restructuring, though it slightly downplays long-term price elasticity among price-sensitive consumer cohorts.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashExtensively corroborated by primary sources, accurately recognizing the legislative termination of Direct File and tracking mid-market expansion. It provides realistic assessments of Mailchimp churn and entry-level pricing concessions, maintaining strong causal consistency.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashExcellent forensic focus on cash-flow conversion, debt-to-equity resilience, and the formal dissolution of Direct File. It accurately maps macroeconomic credit frictions on consumer lending, balancing fundamental compounding against realistic valuation constraints.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides sound causal mechanics regarding switching costs and proprietary financial data, supported by solid cash conversion analysis. However, it partially incorporates the stale premise of active Direct File encroachment and overstates terminal multiple normalization potential.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe report correctly highlights small-business accounting lock-in and rapid TurboTax Live expansion. However, its projected multiple expansion back toward historical peaks relies on optimistic sentiment shifts rather than evidence of sustained multiple ceilings under restrictive interest rate benchmarks.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashDemonstrates strong forensic accounting rigor by verifying unblemished operating margins and minimal net leverage. Its limitation lies in repeating the common narrative that government filing remains an active competitive threat, slightly reducing its analytical independence.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashDelivers valuable analysis of mid-market Enterprise Suite upselling and Credit Karma customer acquisition funnels. Its relative weight is moderated because it treats Direct File as an ongoing active regulatory friction rather than a discontinued program.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashOffers sharp insights into statutory tax indemnity and accounting data gravity that generic AI wrappers cannot replicate. Nevertheless, its macro assumptions remain somewhat generic, and it overlooks the explicit accounting changes regarding share-based compensation.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis report provides sound logic regarding mid-market enterprise expansion and buyback compounding. However, it relies on the stale assumption of expanding IRS Direct File competition, which was discontinued by federal policy. Its aggressive multiple expansion projections lack conservatism under prevailing interest rate realities.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashWhile offering classic owner-earnings discipline and balance-sheet solvency analysis, the report treats IRS Direct File as an active, ongoing nationwide headwind, overlooking recent policy terminations. This empirical limitation warrants a reduced weight despite sound long-term reasoning.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashPresents strong first-principles reasoning distinguishing certified compliance audit trails from generic language models. However, it repeats unverified assumptions about expanding public tax software and posits an aggressive multiple recovery that clashes with persistent macroeconomic interest rate pressures.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashCorrectly identifies the capital-light nature of software cash flows and aggressive share repurchases. However, its repetitive arguments and reliance on ongoing IRS Direct File encroachment without verifying recent policy cancellations justify a minimal weight.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Intuit consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 60 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01Documentsec.gov
- 02Intuit Hosts Investor Day, Reaffirms First-Quarter and Fiscal 2027 Guidance :: Intuit Inc. (INTU)investors.intuit.com
- 03Intuit Inc. stock faces AI doubts as Investor Day approachesad-hoc-news.de
- 04Intuit Inc. stock falls sharply as Investor Day resets growth outlookad-hoc-news.de
- 05Intuit reports Q4 2026 earnings after stock’s 47% decline from peakeciks.org
- 06Intuit Enterprise Suite Summer 2026 Release: AI, Multi-Entity, Industry-specificerp.intuit.com
- 07Dear Intuit Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for September 17finance.yahoo.com
- 08Intuit Faces TurboTax Probes As Market Share And Trust Come Under Focusfinance.yahoo.com
- 09Intuit Investor Day Puts AI at Center of Growth Reset After Customer Missesfinance.yahoo.com
- 10Intuit Q4 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
- 11Intuit's TurboTax Live Is Thriving: Can It Offset DIY Choppiness?finance.yahoo.com
- 12Why Intuit Stock Dropped Todayfinance.yahoo.com
- 13Intuit (INTU) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
- 14Stifel reiterates Intuit stock rating at Hold with $300 target By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 15Cash Flow :: Intuit Inc. (INTU)investors.intuit.com
And 45 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
annual: 2015-07-31–2026-07-31, 12 periods; quarterly: 2023-10-31–2026-07-31, 12 periods
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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