AI Consensus Investment Thesis
FICO: Fair Isaac Stock Price, Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year and 5 Year Targets
Fair Isaac: 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook and Rating
Fair Isaac (FICO) has an immediate Strong Buy & Keep consensus AI recommendation, based on 14 AI analysts.
The 1-year target is $1,023 for , with +27.92% expected return (+27.92% including net dividends) and a STRONG BUY rating.
The 5-year target is $1,664 for , with +108.07% expected return (+108.07% including net dividends) and a BUY rating.
Latest available market price: USD 800, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
Targets retain their original publication dates. Returns use the dated market close and the time remaining to each fixed target date. Current ratings also require fresh quotes and analysis, with more than 90 days remaining. Past targets have no forward return. Eligibility checked .
Fair Isaac Flagship Insight
Credit Scoring Monopoly Confronts Regulatory Modernization While Enterprise Software Compounding Accelerates
Across specialized reports, there is high consensus that entrenched secondary securitization standards and accelerating enterprise cloud platform revenue protect core cash flows. However, sharp divergence remains regarding whether regulatory mortgage fee competition and elevated debt service will permanently compress future corporate operating margins.
How were the Investment Thesis and Forecasts created?
14 AI advisors, guided by 9 analytical frameworks, contribute to the deep analysis by iPulse AI Engine.
Universal Investor (Polymath)
Superintelligence (Anthropologist)
Ray Dalio (Strategist)
J.P. Morgan (Titan)
Elon Musk (Visionary)
Warren Buffett (Value Purist)
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower)
Machiavelli (Insider)
Michael Burry (Vulture)
Ran across these frontier AI models
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Fair Isaac: forecast questions
What is Fair Isaac (FICO)'s 1-year price forecast?
Fair Isaac's 1-year target is $1,023 for Sept 2027. The current AI rating is STRONG BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +27.92%, or +27.92% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 800, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is Fair Isaac (FICO)'s 5-year price forecast?
Fair Isaac's 5-year target is $1,664 for Sept 2031. The current AI rating is BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +108.07%, or +108.07% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 800, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is the return basis?
Latest available market price: USD 800, as of 20 Oct 2026. These are model projections, not guaranteed future prices.
How can I compare the AI opinions and audit past Fair Isaac forecasts?
14 AI analysts contribute to this publication. AI Opinions shows individual advisor forecasts and reasoning. Forecast History preserves earlier published batches; their figures describe their original publication, not today's outlook.
How does an AI-generated forecast for Fair Isaac differ from Wall Street analyst consensus?
Wall Street consensus aggregates estimates from human analysts. For listed companies, these typically include brokerage price targets, earnings forecasts and ratings. iPulse AI's forecast for Fair Isaac is a separate AI consensus generated through its own research workflow. Different inputs, forecast dates, assumptions and weighting can therefore produce different targets.
We believe the era of investment research conducted only by human analysts is drawing to a close. Frontier models increasingly match or exceed expert work on selected professional benchmarks, including evaluations covering financial analysis. Research on multi-model synthesis also shows that combining model responses can improve on a single model's output in the tasks studied.
iPulse AI generates transparent investment research and market forecasts using a swarm of AI configurations, analytical frameworks and frontier models. The workflow applies multiple verification, challenge and synthesis layers, with selective editorial review under Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief. Published assumptions, disagreements and past forecasts remain available so readers can inspect the reasoning and audit outcomes.
For a research cycle covering 426 assets with 14 perspectives per asset, our internal workload model estimates approximately 114,000 hours of traditional analyst work. It assumes 16 hours per individual research report, 28 hours per consensus for synthesis and validation, plus shared data preparation. Parallel AI execution allows a deep-analysis cycle across hundreds of assets to complete in up to one day. The human-hours figure is an illustrative workload estimate, rather than measured time savings. Our research methodology explains the automated workflow.
Fair Isaac: Investment Thesis Summary
Dotted terms link to the glossary; hover or focus for a preview. Browse technical terms
If you invest $10,000 in Fair Isaac at the latest market close (20 Oct 2026): $20,807 by Sept 2031 versus $13,751 for S&P 500 benchmark.
Returns use the same dated market close, fixed targets and remaining dividend period as the forecast table.
The investment thesis resolves the tension between regulatory de-monopolization in conforming mortgage originations and the structural inertia of institutional credit plumbing. While federal housing directives approve alternative scoring models to curtail historic wholesale royalty increases, displacing embedded default calibrations across multi-trillion-dollar secondary securitization contracts requires years of operational validation. Concurrently, the business is executing a strategic pivot: high-margin cloud decisioning platform annual recurring revenue is compounding above sixty percent, gradually offsetting legacy software runoff and diluting mortgage revenue concentration. Valuation sensitivity remains acutely tethered to floating-rate debt service and capital allocation discipline. Management's multi-billion-dollar debt-funded share repurchases created deeply negative accounting book equity, elevating gross leverage just as higher benchmark yields inflate interest burdens. Deleveraging must temporarily supersede aggressive buybacks to safeguard credit metrics. The core economic risk is not immediate competitive obsolescence, but margin compression if political scrutiny freezes wholesale score pricing before enterprise software achieves sufficient scale to carry group growth.
Key insights
- Secondary securitization covenants and rating agency default telemetry create formidable switching barriers that insulate wholesale scoring royalties from rapid competitive displacement.
- Scaling platform software annual recurring revenue diversifies group earnings, transitioning terminal valuation from a politically contested tollbooth toward an enterprise SaaS compounder.
- Negative accounting equity and floating-rate debt maturities compel near-term deleveraging, temporarily restricting the mechanical share cannibalization that historically amplified per-share returns.
Fair Isaac: 5 Year Consensus Forecast
20 quarterly price targets, returns and rationale, with advisor range and benchmark
Forward returns are updated using the latest market close price of USD 800, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
The consensus target follows an expert-weighted price path synthesized from 14 AI advisor opinions. See Opinion weights and rationale for the exact allocation and reasoning.
Forecast methodology and reference values
Published targets are anchored on 18 Sept 2026 at USD 950. Original quarter-to-quarter target changes are retained. Forward returns use the remaining time to each fixed target date.
The pessimistic and optimistic advisor base cases are the lowest and highest published advisor base-case targets for each quarter. The advisor at either extreme can change between quarters. Benchmark values are in USD.
Scroll the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Evidence-Weighted Consensus Price Path | Individual Advisor Range & Reference Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus target (USD) | Forecast quarter-to-quarter price change | Forward price return | Forward return incl. net dividends | Forecast rationale | Pessimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | Optimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | |
| $952 | +0.24% | +19.04% | +19.04% | Fourth-quarter reporting reflects post-directive multiple compression as investors digest regulatory pricing scrutiny. Resilient free cash generation and initial enterprise platform software expansions absorb severe panic selling, establishing early fundamental stabilization. | $893 | $1,026 | $750 | |
| $962 | +1.06% | +20.29% | +20.29% | First-quarter results demonstrate that operational inertia and secondary market liquidity requirements prevent rapid lender defection. Modest scoring royalty retention and non-mortgage durability counterbalance sluggish mortgage application velocity under restrictive monetary conditions. | $821 | $1,097 | $736 | |
| $992 | +3.09% | +24.04% | +24.04% | Platform annual recurring revenue growth offsets legacy software runoff, improving consolidated revenue mix. Early direct licensing disclosures clarify retained per-loan economics, prompting modest earnings estimate revisions across institutional analyst models. | $780 | $1,163 | $743 | |
| $1,023 | +3.17% | +27.92% | +27.92% | Audited fiscal year-end metrics show mortgage revenue holding firm despite competitive rhetoric. Operating cash flows fund scheduled term-loan amortizations, reassuring credit markets and narrowing the equity risk discount. | $749 | $1,221 | $755 | |
| $1,057 | +3.30% | +32.17% | +32.17% | Conservative fiscal 2028 guidance removes worst-case regulatory rollback fears. Management prioritizes balance-sheet covenant headroom over leveraged repurchases, fostering modest multiple stabilization around normalized earnings as institutional allocators re-engage. | $734 | $1,270 | $776 | |
| $1,077 | +1.90% | +34.67% | +34.67% | Attention centers on approaching debt maturities as macro interest rates stay elevated. Stable non-mortgage scoring royalties support liquidity reserves, though debt-service requirements temporarily restrict discretionary capital allocation. | $741 | $1,309 | $787 | |
| $1,123 | +4.25% | +40.42% | +40.42% | Successful refinancing and scheduled amortization of term-loan obligations remove near-term liquidity overhangs. Platform software bookings accelerate across regional banking clients, supporting incremental operating leverage and equity appreciation. | $764 | $1,387 | $803 | |
| $1,164 | +3.71% | +45.55% | +45.55% | With core refinancing hurdles cleared, free cash conversion enables a return to measured open-market share repurchases. Deepening cloud platform decisioning workloads improve earnings visibility and support baseline valuations. | $779 | $1,466 | $812 | |
| $1,207 | +3.65% | +50.93% | +50.93% | Full-year fiscal 2028 results validate a more balanced revenue mix, reducing historical reliance on mortgage score price hikes. Stable software net retention rates support steady mid-single-digit valuation recovery. | $810 | $1,544 | $839 | |
| $1,248 | +3.44% | +56.05% | +56.05% | Alternative credit scoring adoption reaches an operational equilibrium without causing catastrophic market-share attrition. Gradual macroeconomic monetary easing begins thawing frozen residential mortgage turnover, lifting transactional scoring inquiry volumes. | $834 | $1,647 | $851 | |
| $1,291 | +3.38% | +61.43% | +61.43% | Lower benchmark borrowing yields stimulate mortgage refinancing inquiries, generating strong operational leverage across high-margin scoring channels. Enterprise software platform gross margins widen as cloud infrastructure migrations mature. | $830 | $1,718 | $872 | |
| $1,334 | +3.39% | +66.81% | +66.81% | Non-mortgage scoring in credit cards and auto lending delivers steady cash flow under annual contractual renewals. Reduced net leverage restores balance-sheet flexibility, allowing per-share earnings compounding to resume leadership. | $838 | $1,816 | $886 | |
| $1,372 | +2.84% | +71.56% | +71.56% | Fiscal 2029 performance confirms durable operating margins above forty-five percent. The investment narrative increasingly treats the enterprise as a diversified decisioning infrastructure provider rather than a vulnerable mortgage tollbooth. | $855 | $1,840 | $910 | |
| $1,413 | +2.97% | +76.68% | +76.68% | Software platform annual recurring revenue crosses critical scale thresholds, expanding international banking footprint. Disciplined liquidity management ahead of credit facility renewals keeps quarterly equity appreciation measured and fundamentally grounded. | $855 | $1,932 | $916 | |
| $1,459 | +3.24% | +82.44% | +82.44% | Revolving credit agreements renew on sustainable terms, removing residual capital structure uncertainty. Modest transaction volume growth across consumer credit verticals offsets the normalized, competitive pricing environment in conforming mortgages. | $864 | $2,048 | $937 | |
| $1,501 | +2.90% | +87.69% | +87.69% | Substantially lowered net debt enables consistent cash-funded share retirements. Expanding software platform operating leverage offsets mature domestic credit scoring volume trends, driving predictable per-share equity value accretion. | $855 | $2,141 | $947 | |
| $1,542 | +2.72% | +92.82% | +92.82% | Fiscal 2030 disclosures confirm that enterprise decisioning software represents a major share of total earnings. Valuation multiples trade stably as long-term compounder capital absorbs predictable recurring subscription flows. | $872 | $2,227 | $970 | |
| $1,577 | +2.28% | +97.19% | +97.19% | Next-generation analytics and fraud mitigation modules achieve broad commercial integration across tier-one lenders. High customer switching barriers preserve pricing discipline, generating dependable quarterly cash conversion. | $872 | $2,338 | $980 | |
| $1,622 | +2.85% | +102.82% | +102.82% | Disciplined cost control and organic free cash flow convert reliably into continued float contraction. Regulatory oversight settles into predictable administrative patterns, allowing core operations to drive steady equity compounding. | $881 | $2,432 | $1,000 | |
| $1,664 | +2.59% | +108.07% | +108.07% | The five-year forecast culminates with the business operating as a dual-engine analytics and enterprise decisioning leader. Normalized multiples reflect durable high-margin cash flows, reduced leverage, and sustained per-share intrinsic value. | $890 | $2,553 | $1,012 | |
Show remaining 18 quartersShow first 2 quarters only
All 20 quarters are displayed in the table above.
Fair Isaac Stock Analysis & Scenarios Deep Dive
Fair Isaac: Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? The prevailing market consensus treats recent federal directives authorizing alternative scoring models as an existential breach in the company's economic moat. Media commentary and sell-side downgrades anchor on dramatic price hikes since 2020, assuming margin-starved mortgage lenders will instantly defect to sub-dollar alternatives. Investors widely believe the loss of regulatory exclusivity permanently breaks pricing power, forcing severe multiple compression on an over-leveraged capital structure.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd underestimates value by conflating regulatory eligibility with operational substitution. While regulators permit rival scoring models, private secondary mortgage markets, rating agencies, and private-label securitizations require decades of historical default comparability hardcoded into underwriting algorithms. Furthermore, the market overlooks that conforming mortgages represent less than a third of group earnings, while non-mortgage scoring and cloud platform recurring software compound at robust double-digit rates, creating an attractive risk-adjusted entry point.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Audited fiscal reporting through 2027 that provides granular disclosures on mortgage score volumes, direct licensing adoption, and platform software recurring revenue will serve as the primary catalyst. Demonstrating that lenders retain core scoring protocols to preserve secondary liquidity while direct licensing captures back-end origination fees will dismantle fears of rapid revenue collapse, prompting upward earnings revisions and multiple stabilization.
Fair Isaac: Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed and Fear Sentiment
- Fear
- Volatility Regime
- High Erratic
- Convergence Cycle Position
- Capitulation
Sentiment reflects post-regulatory panic and capitulation selling. The decisive tension centers on whether mortgage score competition triggers immediate margin collapse or whether secondary market lock-in and enterprise cloud platform growth preserve long-term compounding, dictating the timing of multiple recovery.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The prevailing macro regime of higher-for-longer policy rates and five percent benchmark Treasury yields is a net headwind. Restrictive mortgage financing suppresses transactional home purchases and refinancing inquiries, directly limiting score inquiry volumes. Furthermore, elevated rates increase borrowing costs across several billion dollars in debt obligations, prioritizing cash allocation toward debt amortization over equity repurchases.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The primary disagreement across reports centers on whether the loss of regulatory mortgage exclusivity represents a permanent impairment of tollbooth economics or a manageable headline disruption. Bearish perspectives argue that recent earnings growth was an unsustainable artifact of aggressive price hikes that will reverse under sub-dollar competition, exacerbated by negative equity and rising debt service. Bullish analyses counter that secondary securitization lock-in and direct licensing will insulate cash flow while platform software ARR re-rates the business. This debate will resolve as early 2027 GSE loan delivery data reveals actual lender defection rates versus retained scoring volumes.
Fair Isaac: Critical Influencing Factors
Near-certain positive forcesTop Drivers & Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary securitization institutional inertia | Competitive Positioning | +26% | +20% | Secondary mortgage-backed securities covenants and rating agency criteria remain hardcoded to legacy scoring benchmarks. Multi-trillion-dollar institutional bondholders require long-term historical default calibration to model tranche risk, penalizing unfamiliar models with wider yield spreads. This operational friction prevents lenders from abandoning established scoring architecture, preserving wholesale royalty streams. |
| Enterprise cloud platform ARR expansion | Innovation And Product | +24% | +22% | The cloud-native decision management platform is expanding annual recurring revenue at over sixty percent, supported by net retention rates exceeding one hundred twenty percent. As global banks embed the software into mission-critical fraud and onboarding workflows, high switching costs decouple corporate cash generation from cyclical loan origination volumes. |
| Non-mortgage credit scoring dominance | Competitive Positioning | +18% | +16% | Outside conforming mortgages, the scoring franchise retains an entrenched ninety-percent market share across auto lending, credit cards, and personal installment credit. Because these verticals operate independent of housing regulatory mandates, established pricing schedules continue delivering predictable, high-margin licensing royalties across hundreds of millions of consumer files. |
| Direct licensing margin recapture model | Operational Efficiency | +16% | +18% | Management's direct licensing program bypasses credit bureau intermediaries by contracting directly with lenders and resellers. By combining nominal upfront inquiry pricing with closing fees on funded loans, the model defends net unit economics per origination, disarming consumer fee optics while capturing distribution margin previously lost to credit reporting agencies. |
Near-certain negative forcesTop Frictions & Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FHFA conforming mortgage monopoly dismantling | Regulatory | -25% | -22% | Federal housing directives permitting GSE lenders to deliver alternative credit scores terminate a three-decade regulatory exclusivity. With bureau-backed competitors aggressively discounting per-inquiry fees, lenders possess negotiating leverage that halts unilateral wholesale score price escalations and forces defensive concessions across price-sensitive origination pipelines. |
| Antitrust scrutiny and political retaliation | Political And Geopolitical | -15% | -12% | Bipartisan congressional investigations, state attorney general inquiries, and Department of Justice scrutiny targeting cumulative score price hikes create severe headline overhang. The persistent threat of civil investigative demands or statutory fee caps constrains management's pricing flexibility and elevates corporate compliance and legal defense expenditures. |
| Leveraged balance sheet refinancing friction | Capital Allocation | -12% | -10% | Aggressive debt-financed share repurchases drove stockholders' equity to negative levels, leaving gross debt near 5.6 billion dollars. In a benchmark rate environment near five percent, floating-rate interest charges absorb operating cash flow, constraining discretionary capital allocation and necessitating debt amortization over aggressive share buybacks. |
| Persistent mortgage volume macro stagnation | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -11% | -11% | Elevated benchmark policy rates and sticky mortgage yields continue to suppress residential housing turnover and refinancing activity. Because transactional scoring royalties depend directly on loan application velocity, prolonged origination depression limits aggregate pull counts, preventing transaction growth from compensating for competitive fee moderation. |
Fair Isaac: What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Event Risk Score: High 66/100Asset-level relative pressure from clustered consensus frictions and tail risks. This is not the probability or risk score of an individual force.Plausible downside scenariosTail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOJ antitrust civil enforcement decree | 28% | -38% | The Department of Justice Antitrust Division could file a formal monopolization lawsuit challenging credit score pricing tiers and reseller distribution contracts by late 2027. A binding judicial consent decree capping wholesale scoring fees or mandating structural separation of scoring from software would decimate operating margins and permanently impair annual free cash flow. |
| Regulatory mandate of bi-merge reporting | 32% | -30% | Federal housing authorities could formally mandate a transition from tri-merge credit reports to a bi-merge standard by 2028 to lower consumer closing costs. Requiring only two bureau pulls per mortgage application would instantly cut aggregate industry scoring volume by one-third, severely contracting high-margin royalty revenue and exposing fixed balance-sheet debt burdens. |
Plausible upside scenariosTail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary MBS covenants mandate next-generation scores | 35% | +38% | Secondary mortgage-backed securities investors and credit rating agencies could formally reject uncalibrated rival scores, mandating next-generation trended FICO algorithms across agency pools by 2028. Triggered by early securitization default divergences, institutional asset managers would require proven predictive models in servicing contracts, fully restoring pricing hegemony and triggering an immediate multiple rerating. |
| Global banking agentic platform standardization | 25% | +32% | Tier-one global commercial banks could standardize enterprise-wide fraud mitigation and autonomous credit decisioning onto the cloud platform by 2029. Triggered by strict governance requirements around AI explainability, scaled multi-year consumption contracts would accelerate software annual recurring revenue past 1.5 billion dollars, permanently decoupling corporate valuation from domestic credit bureau controversies. |
Company Financial AnalysisFair Isaac: Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included. View latest Fair Isaac financials here.
Earnings and financials
The company's recent financial results show impressive top-line growth, with trailing twelve-month revenue reaching $2.39 billion and free cash flow approaching $1.0 billion. This financial expansion was driven largely by significant wholesale price increases on mortgage credit scores, which flowed almost directly to operating profit with minimal incremental costs. However, these headline numbers conceal an important underlying dynamic. While revenue expanded rapidly, transaction volumes across mortgage originations grew only modestly. With housing regulators now challenging aggressive fee escalation, future earnings growth cannot rely solely on price increases and must increasingly depend on the rapid expansion of enterprise cloud software.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 2B | USD 651.9M | USD 769.9M |
| 2024 | USD 1.7B | USD 512.8M | USD 607.4M |
| 2023 | USD 1.5B | USD 429.4M | USD 464.7M |
| 2022 | USD 1.4B | USD 373.5M | USD 503.4M |
| 2021 | USD 1.3B | USD 392.1M | USD 416.2M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.0x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2024 | 94.1x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2023 | 51.0x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2022 | 28.1x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
| 2021 | 27.9x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
Operating profitability reached exceptional levels over recent periods, with gross margins climbing to 82.2% and operating margins exceeding 46.5%. This dramatic widening reflected pure operating leverage in the scoring segment, where delivering algorithmic queries incurs practically zero marginal distribution cost. Looking forward, this peak margin level faces natural stabilization. Increased pricing competition in conforming mortgages and the growing proportion of cloud software revenue—which carries necessary hosting and implementation expenses—will moderate consolidated operating margins, though they are expected to remain highly profitable above forty percent.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 924.9M | 46.5% | 32.7% |
| 2024 | USD 733.6M | 42.7% | 29.9% |
| 2023 | USD 642.8M | 42.5% | 28.4% |
| 2022 | USD 542.4M | 39.4% | 27.1% |
| 2021 | USD 505.5M | 38.4% | 29.8% |
Balance sheet and leverage
The balance sheet displays deeply negative stockholders' equity of negative $1.75 billion, which is an optical result of multi-billion-dollar share repurchases exceeding historical retained earnings rather than operational losses. However, borrowing to finance buybacks pushed total debt to roughly $5.6 billion, including a $1.5 billion term loan. While strong operating cash flows comfortably cover interest obligations with healthy coverage ratios, elevated benchmark interest rates make debt refinancing more expensive. Management must now prioritize scheduled debt repayment and covenant compliance over aggressive buybacks, temporarily pausing the rapid reduction of outstanding shares.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Reported net cash / (debt) | Debt less (cash + short-term investments), calculated | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 3.1B | USD 134.1M | USD 2.9B net debt | USD 2.9B | 0.83x |
| 2024 | USD 2.2B | USD 150.7M | USD 2.1B net debt | USD 2.1B | 1.62x |
| 2023 | USD 1.9B | USD 136.8M | USD 1.8B net debt | USD 1.8B | 1.51x |
| 2022 | USD 1.9B | USD 133.2M | USD 1.8B net debt | USD 1.8B | 1.46x |
| 2021 | USD 1.3B | USD 195.4M | USD 1.1B net debt | USD 1.1B | 0.99x |
Reported net debt retains the source definition, which can deduct cash alone. Cash plus short-term investments is broader liquidity; the separately calculated column subtracts that full amount from total debt for the same fiscal period and currency. Reported net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
The business operates an exceptionally capital-light model that requires minimal physical infrastructure. In fiscal 2025, capital expenditures consumed less than one percent of total revenue, as the core mathematical algorithms and cloud software do not require factories or heavy machinery. This allows over eighty percent of operating income to convert directly into free cash flow. Instead of heavy physical spending, management prioritizes research and development, investing $188 million in fiscal 2025 to advance cloud analytics and proprietary decision platforms. This disciplined intellectual reinvestment enhances predictive accuracy while releasing substantial cash flow to service debt and fund strategic initiatives.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 8.9M | USD 188.3M |
| 2024 | USD 25.6M | USD 171.9M |
| 2023 | USD 4.2M | USD 160M |
| 2022 | USD 6M | USD 146.8M |
| 2021 | USD 7.6M | USD 171.2M |
Behind the synthesisFair Isaac: How Each Individual AI Forecaster Opinion Shapes the Global Consensus
This publication’s recorded synthesis allocated voting influence across 14 advisor opinions. The weights and rationales below are retained from that synthesis.
The independently supported common pattern confirms that while headline regulatory directives authorize alternative scoring models, secondary mortgage securitization plumbing, private-label covenants, and non-mortgage verticals like auto and credit cards remain heavily anchored to legacy scoring architectures. However, correlated bullish assumptions frequently treat past triple-digit wholesale price escalations as permanently repeatable and assume aggressive debt-funded buybacks can persist unhindered. The strongest credible contrarian case highlights that recent revenue growth stemmed almost entirely from unit price increases rather than transaction volume, leaving gross margins exposed if regulatory scrutiny freezes pricing tiers while floating-rate debt service escalates. Material unsupported claims project rapid multiple re-expansion above historical software peaks despite negative accounting equity. Relative weights therefore prioritize empirically evidenced reports that anchor on audited financial filings, balance sheet deleveraging necessities, and realistic platform software transition dynamics over speculative monopoly rent preservation.
All 14 opinions
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 · 2026-07-24 releaseWeight: 15.2%
This exceptionally well-evidenced report uses audited SEC filings and regulatory releases to dissect the mortgage royalty structure and balance sheet debt covenants. Its rigorous, uninflated scenario accounts for frozen royalty rates and debt paydown requirements.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra · 2026-09-03 releaseWeight: 13.3%
This report provides excellent empirical grounding using primary SEC filings, realistically evaluating mortgage price elasticities against rising debt service costs. It balances direct licensing opportunities with near-term refinancing frictions, avoiding unverified valuation inflation.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 9.5%
This perspective demonstrates deep structural understanding of secondary mortgage covenants and the direct licensing closing-fee mechanism. It is weighted robustly, tempered only by somewhat ambitious multiple rerating timelines in its projected path.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.6%
Supported by verifiable regulatory and trade documentation, this report details non-mortgage scoring insulation and platform software growth. It earns a strong weight, though its long-term equity appreciation path slightly discounts persistent political headline friction.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.6%
The macroeconomic framing is disciplined, accurately linking benchmark yields to origination volumes and debt service constraints. It correctly captures the durability of non-mortgage scoring while presenting a balanced view of regulatory transition timelines.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.6%
Offering a sober and credible operational audit, this evaluation correctly flags the margin vulnerability of relying on price hikes over volume. It accurately diagnoses negative book equity risks, though it slightly underestimates secondary market inertia.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.7%
This analysis provides a valuable contrarian examination of credit bureau retaliation, antitrust risks, and terminal pricing resistance. It is moderately downweighted due to an overly aggressive assumption regarding the speed of lender defection to VantageScore.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.7%
The evaluation offers an incisive critique of debt-funded share cannibalization and mortgage revenue concentration. It is penalized for assuming an immediate collapse in gross margins that disregards substantial institutional switching barriers across secondary markets.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.7%
The analysis offers valid insights into secondary mortgage market inertia and enterprise cloud platform scaling. However, it relies heavily on uncorroborated multiple expansion and optimistic origination volume rebounds under tight monetary conditions.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 4.8%
The thesis correctly captures the earnings power of tiered score pricing and platform recurring revenue. However, it overstates the pace of long-term float shrinkage while minimizing emerging refinancing frictions in a higher-rate macro environment.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 4.8%
The analysis effectively highlights the structural switching barriers in private-label securitizations and the momentum of platform annual recurring revenue. However, it overstates long-term valuation multiples in an era of constrained mortgage originations.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 3.8%
While accurately highlighting the capital-light nature of algorithm licensing, this thesis underestimates regulatory fee intervention and ignores the balance-sheet vulnerabilities stemming from deeply negative accounting equity and heightened debt servicing costs.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 3.8%
The report presents a compelling vision of enterprise decisioning expansion, but projects excessive multiple expansion toward software peers. It downplays the immediate cash flow impact of regulatory scrutiny and floating-rate debt obligations.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.9%
The thesis provides creative framing around algorithmic rent extraction, but heavily overweights pricing elasticity while assuming continuous debt-financed repurchases despite covenant ceilings. Its aggressive projections lack sufficient empirical caution regarding policy risks.
References & Context
Research Provenance
Analysis generated by iPulse AI Engine v7 using recorded market data, operating under the editorial standards and supervision of Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief.
External references below are sources recorded by the researcher agents for this Fair Isaac forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher web40 available sources from this batch (97 recorded). The first 15 are shown below; expand to read the rest.
- Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement federalreserve.gov
- Credit Scores | FHFA fhfa.gov
- Homebuying Advances into New Era of Credit Score Competition | FHFA fhfa.gov
- FHA TOTAL | HUD.gov / U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) hud.gov
- Document sec.gov
- FAIR ISAAC CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 sec.gov
- FAIR ISAAC CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 sec.gov
- fico-20260630 sec.gov
- fico-20260630 sec.gov
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814547/000081454726000031/exhibit991erq32026.htm?utm_source=openai sec.gov
- Fair Isaac stock heads into the open after a 5.3 percent jump ad-hoc-news.de
- Why FICO Stock Moved Today | Fair Isaac Corporation | BestStocks beststocks.com
- FICO Score Initiatives & Updates certifiedcredit.com
- FICO Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN cnn.com
- Equifax Statement on FICO® 2X Price Increase for 2026 and Mortgage Direct License Program equifax.com
Show 25 more sources
- FICO Score 10T Adoption Momentum Surpasses 70 Mortgage Lenders | FICO fico.gcs-web.com
- Investor Presentation Q2 FY2026 April 28, 2026 1 fico.gcs-web.com
- FICO® Mortgage Direct License Program | FICO® Score ficoscore.com
- Fair Isaac (FICO) Is Up 12.1% After Launching Direct Mortgage Score Access Program – What's Changed finance.yahoo.com
- Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock Gets Fair Value Trim As Mortgage Rule Changes Stir Analyst Debate finance.yahoo.com
- Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com
- Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com
- FICO (FICO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool fool.com
- FICO Announces Earnings of $10.45 per Share for Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 | FICO investors.fico.com
- FICO Announces New Stock Repurchase Authorization, New Term Loan and Accelerated Share Repurchase Program | FICO investors.fico.com
- FICO Launches Cost-Cutting Direct License Program for Mortgage Lending | FICO investors.fico.com
- FICO Launches Cost-Cutting Direct License Program for Mortgage Lending | FICO investors.fico.com
- https://investors.fico.com/static-files/8cca812a-c1bf-4f9c-8a9e-225d9c76606e investors.fico.com
- US directs Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to approve VantageScore for all lenders | MarketScreener marketscreener.com
- US regulator says credit scoring firm FICO increasing prices for borrowers | MarketScreener marketscreener.com
- MBA Statement on FHFA Announcements on Credit Reporting and Scoring Modernization | MBA mba.org
- Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) morningstar.com
- FICO Announces Earnings of $10.45 per Share for Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 | Nasdaq nasdaq.com
- FICO Authorizes $2B Buyback, Launches $1.5B ASR - Pomegra News pomegra.io
- FICO Plunges 21% as FHFA Ends Credit Score… | Pomegra News pomegra.io
- Equifax counters FICO direct license program with bold pricing plan - Scotsman Guide scotsmanguide.com
- FICO adds $1.5B term loan, $2B buyback plan | FICO 8-K Filing stocktitan.net
- Trump Housing Chief Bill Pulte Smashes FICO’s Mortgage-Score Monopoly — Orders Fannie and Freddie to Approve ALL Lenders for VantageScore Effective Immediately * The Gateway Pundit * by Jim Hᴏft thegatewaypundit.com
- FICO Earnings Call: Platform Surge Amid Mortgage Headwinds - The Globe and Mail theglobeandmail.com
- Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Instructed to Accept VantageScore for All Lenders - The MortgagePoint themortgagepoint.com
57 additional sources are recorded in this batch; their citation details are not available in this publication.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
Archived context covering 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31. Its recorded scope includes technology and capital cycle; trade and industrial policy; monetary policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 13.3K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 22.7K tokens
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Archived context covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20. Its recorded scope includes monetary policy and rates; geopolitics energy and shipping; trade and industrial policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 84.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.4K words
- Characters
- 84.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 21.2K tokens
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental Context Passed as Input to the Models
Time range: Annual fiscal periods: 2014-09-30–2025-09-30, 12 periods; Quarterly fiscal periods: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods.
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
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