Intuit Inc (INTU.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkPrice-adjusted rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+74.5%
Includes 1.22% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is whether fiscal 2026 was a pricing mistake or the first crack in a moat. The evidence favours the former: management attributed lost DIY share to being mispriced for sub-$50,000 filers while assisted revenue grew 36%. Base case, growth settles at 8-10%, margins widen on the permanent headcount reduction, and roughly 6% annual share retirement does the per-share work. The multiple stabilizes near 15-17x rather than reclaiming thirty. Investors collect earnings growth plus a partial re-rate — a good return, not a moonshot.
- FY27 guidance of $20.12-$20.36 GAAP EPS on ~$23.4B revenue prices the anchor near 15x.
- TTM free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry of $8.62B funds $5.5B repurchases and rising dividends without adding leverage.
- Sixteen times roughly $29 FY31 on ~230M shares implies about $107B equity value.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 573 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-24 | 578 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-02 | 532 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-10 | 529 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-30 | 612 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-11 | 607 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-19 | 692 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-09 | 676 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 627 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-29 | 648 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 570 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 517 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-03 | 553 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-07 | 552 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 467 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-03 | 473 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 437 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 506 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-12 | 462 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-20 | 475 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 362 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-18 | 367 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-30 | 414 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-07 | 417 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-19 | 374 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-13 | 383 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 435 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 426 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 487 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 478 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-03 | 423 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 451 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-01 | 393 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-13 | 384 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-25 | 421 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-29 | 423 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-06 | 369 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 385 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 411 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-01 | 391 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 376 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-17 | 387 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-29 | 415 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 430 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-18 | 405 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-10 | 393 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 415 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-22 | 414 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-07 | 441 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-19 | 445 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-05 | 424 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-21 | 452 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-25 | 417 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-02 | 430 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-18 | 453 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-04 | 452 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 490 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-24 | 489 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-28 | 512 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-17 | 486 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 545 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-06 | 552 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-22 | 505 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 510 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-16 | 537 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-28 | 483 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 549 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-17 | 559 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-29 | 577 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 587 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 626 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-04 | 587 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-24 | 639 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-01 | 635 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-13 | 657 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 638 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-04 | 668 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 650 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-05 | 627 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-09 | 644 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-21 | 609 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-03 | 619 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 666 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-08 | 570 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-16 | 603 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-20 | 625 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-06 | 660 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-14 | 654 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 620 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 609 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-19 | 663 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-04 | 623 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 651 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-24 | 638 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-06 | 603 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-22 | 608 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-07 | 666 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-11 | 696 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-01 | 639 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-17 | 678 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-21 | 638 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-29 | 634 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-18 | 606 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-22 | 612 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 579 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-23 | 570 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-27 | 620 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-11 | 585 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 610 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 576 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 615 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-28 | 618 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-18 | 671 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 666 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-07 | 769 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 756 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 781 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-13 | 752 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-29 | 803 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-02 | 774 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-22 | 688 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-07 | 672 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-15 | 651 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-23 | 699 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-09 | 645 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 656 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-25 | 681 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-14 | 662 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-26 | 629 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-30 | 631 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-20 | 672 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-24 | 675 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-13 | 601 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-25 | 555 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-06 | 444 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-22 | 365 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-02 | 427 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 469 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 422 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 428 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-11 | 366 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-09 | 400 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-13 | 372 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 396 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-06 | 296 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-10 | 285 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-22 | 258 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-08 | 272 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-24 | 296 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-28 | 313 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-13 | 358 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-21 | 367 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-10 | 313 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-14 | 339 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 277 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 276 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 303 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 315 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 306 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 324 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 331 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 341 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 347 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 361 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 354 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 365 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 372 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 383 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 391 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 399 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 407 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 419 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 410 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 423 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 431 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 444 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 453 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when the 2028 filing season proves the price cut bought units rather than merely surrendering revenue. Recaptured DIY volume refills the free funnel, Credit Karma monetization improves, and GBS holds 14% on payments attach rather than seat growth. Earnings then compound in the mid-teens while the multiple normalizes toward twenty times as the AI-substitution narrative loses its evidentiary base. Buybacks executed at depressed prices magnify the per-share outcome considerably.
Bear case
The bear case activates if agentic bookkeeping substitutes for the ledger itself, not just for tax guidance. Online paying customer growth slides from 3% to negative, payments volume growth follows the departing subscriptions, and pricing concessions spread from the DIY low end into QuickBooks. Operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry reverses, buyback capacity shrinks with free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns., and the multiple compresses below twelve times declining earnings. Litigation over pricing disclosures would amplify the de-rating rather than cause it.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus trade treats Intuit as the first white-collar franchise AI dissolves. A 49% decline in 2026, a 20% single-session gap in May and Goldman's target cut to $276 hardened that belief [2][18]. Sell-side targets now span $250 to $921 — dispersion that confesses nobody has a terminal multipleterminal multipleValuation metric used to estimate the value of a company beyond the explicit forecast period.View full glossary entry. The anchoring bias is simple: last year's 48.5x is read as proof the story is over.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd underestimates these shares. Follow the evidence: units fell 2% to 39.0 million while management attributed the loss to pricing for sub-$50,000 filers, explicitly not AI [6][8], and TurboTax Live simultaneously grew 36% to nearly $2.8 billion [7]. That is mix reallocation, not substitution. Yet the price embeds terminal decay at roughly 15x guided FY27 GAAP of $20.12-$20.36 [12] with a 10.4% trailing FCF yieldfcf yieldFree cash flow divided by market value, showing cash generation relative to the asset price.View full glossary entry, while 6-7% of the floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry is retired annually.
Convergence catalyst
The May 2027 third-quarter report is the trial: it delivers the first full filing season after the deliberate low-end price reset. Positive TurboTax federal unit growth alongside GBS inside 13-14% would refute the decay thesis. First sign of repricing: multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry on in-line revenue.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.