Historical AI Consensus
This page preserves the research and market snapshot packaged for this batch. It is not updated with later prices or revised advisor outputs.
- Symbol
- TEM.NASDAQ
- Batch
- 7
- Published
- September 21, 2026
- AI Advisors
- 14
Historical AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock (TEM) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Published batch rating
NEUTRAL
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
SELL ALL$65
-16.6%5-Year
NEUTRAL$93
+19.9%Published batch insight
Valuation Reality Confronts Precision Oncology Data Engine Following Paper Profit Surge
There is high consensus that clinical data scale and reimbursement tailwinds support strong top-line compounding, but sharp divergence persists regarding near-term earnings quality and share dilution. While biopharma data licensing commands software-like margins, heavy laboratory overhead, convertible debt, and multiple compression limit near-term per-share equity appreciation.
This analysis preserves the original published batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Universal Investor (Polymath), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Michael Burry (Vulture), Machiavelli (Insider), Elon Musk (Visionary), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
Gemini
Claude
ChatGPTFull published thesis
Executive Summary
If you invested $10,000 in Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $11,991 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (USD) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 70.80 | -9.04% | -9.04% | Elevated Treasury yields and third-quarter earnings disclosures expose underlying operating losses as non-operating investment gains fade. Investors derisk speculative growth holdings, initiating valuation multiple contraction despite steady clinical test volumes. |
| Q1 2027 | 65.52 | -7.46% | -15.83% | Consolidation of the Personalis acquisition expands the diluted share count and brings first-year integration expenses. Fourth-quarter reporting confirms ongoing cash burn, prompting sell-side analysts to temper intermediate margin expectations. |
| Q2 2027 | 65.57 | +0.07% | -15.77% | Contractual Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test reimbursement pricing begins lifting realized revenue across solid tumor sequencing panels. Expanding diagnostic gross margins provide tangible evidence of operational progress, arresting immediate valuation multiple declines. |
| Q3 2027 | 64.89 | -1.04% | -16.64% | Expanded biopharma Insights licensing contracts and cross-selling of minimal residual disease assays through provider networks support revenue momentum. However, high discount rates and lab integration costs keep equity gains modest. |
| Q4 2027 | 64.84 | -0.07% | -16.70% | Approaching year-end, tax-loss rebalancing and elevated debt servicing costs induce mild multiple friction. Full-year figures demonstrate narrowed cash burn, though headline free cash flow remains negative, keeping price action subdued. |
| Q1 2028 | 64.64 | -0.31% | -16.96% | Full-year 2027 reporting highlights positive adjusted EBITDA, but persistent stock compensation and integration overhead restrain GAAP operating margins. Multiple compression toward mid-single-digit sales benchmarks limits upside following earnings. |
| Q2 2028 | 67.76 | +4.83% | -12.95% | Accelerated clinical adoption of minimal residual disease surveillance and broader commercial reimbursement drive strong volume growth. Laboratory throughput efficiencies lower per-sample sequencing costs, sparking renewed fundamental accumulation. |
| Q3 2028 | 68.97 | +1.79% | -11.39% | Multi-year pharmaceutical data renewals at higher contractual values expand high-margin Insights revenue. The improving revenue mix cushions the consolidated cost structure against broader macroeconomic stagnation and elevated borrowing rates. |
| Q4 2028 | 70.97 | +2.90% | -8.82% | Centralized laboratory automation across acquired testing facilities stabilizes gross margins near sixty-four percent. Operating cash flow approaches sustainable breakeven, removing acute financing anxiety and fostering solid quarterly price advancement. |
| Q1 2029 | 73.74 | +3.90% | -5.26% | First-quarter disclosures confirm the business is approaching sustainable cash-flow neutrality without reliance on investment gains. Core oncology testing demand demonstrates counter-cyclical stability, lifting institutional confidence and equity valuation. |
| Q2 2029 | 75.25 | +2.04% | -3.33% | Biopharma demand for clinical trial patient matching algorithms generates high-margin success fees. Positive operating cash flow allows the company to self-fund laboratory maintenance, validating the long-term data aggregation thesis. |
| Q3 2029 | 77.47 | +2.96% | -0.47% | Routine capital reinvestment in sequencing hardware and bioinformatics infrastructure temporarily moderates free cash flow conversion. Quoted equity prices experience modest consolidation as investors digest steady twenty-percent organic growth. |
| Q4 2029 | 79.29 | +2.34% | +1.86% | The company achieves its first full fiscal year of authentic GAAP operating profitability. Eliminating structural operating deficits triggers positive sell-side revisions and broader institutional accumulation across fundamental healthcare funds. |
| Q1 2030 | 80.92 | +2.06% | +3.96% | Selective competitor price discounting in standard hereditary panels prompts modest pricing concessions. However, expanding minimal residual disease surveillance volumes and high-margin data licensing preserve overall gross profit expansion. |
| Q2 2030 | 83.44 | +3.11% | +7.19% | Commercial rollout of proprietary predictive diagnostic algorithms deepens clinician lock-in across regional cancer networks. Operating leverage translates volume expansion directly into operating income growth, driving consistent equity appreciation. |
| Q3 2030 | 84.47 | +1.24% | +8.52% | Upcoming convertible note maturities prompt investor focus on capital structure refinancing terms. Elevated market rates prevent multiple expansion, but solid internal cash generation protects equity valuation from severe discounting. |
| Q4 2030 | 86.67 | +2.60% | +11.34% | Robust fourth-quarter enterprise software and data licensing true-ups deliver strong cash inflows. Management outlines a self-funding balance sheet roadmap, encouraging steady accumulation into the fiscal year-end close. |
| Q1 2031 | 89.32 | +3.06% | +14.75% | Mature clinical diagnostic contracts covering seventy percent of commercial lives deliver highly predictable cash collections. Reduced revenue volatility and improved working capital turnover support measured, fundamentally backed share-price gains. |
| Q2 2031 | 91.48 | +2.42% | +17.52% | Consistent double-digit operating margins across diagnostic testing and biopharma data segments validate structural scale economies. Compounding organic cash flows enable debt reduction without dilutive equity issuance. |
| Q3 2031 | 93.34 | +2.03% | +19.91% | The five-year forecasting window closes with the franchise valued as an established, profitable precision medicine infrastructure leader, where durable cash compounding comfortably balances normalized valuation multiples. |
Tempus AI presents a profound structural dichotomy between an expanding clinical-molecular data asset and a capital-intensive diagnostic laboratory engine currently trading near ten times sales. The base-case economic argument recognizes durable twenty-percent organic volume compounding across oncology sequencing and biopharma licensing, further bolstered by Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test reimbursement pricing. However, forensic analysis of second-quarter 2026 filings reveals that reported GAAP net profitability was engineered through approximately one hundred million dollars of non-operating marketable securities gains, concealing ongoing operating losses of seventy-six million dollars and negative free cash flow. In an environment defined by five-percent benchmark Treasury yields, the stock faces severe multiple compression toward normalized diagnostics benchmarks, compounded by impending equity dilution from the 1.5-billion-dollar Personalis transaction.
Key insights
- Headline accounting profits obscure persistent operational cash burn, demanding multiple quarters of genuine operating cash-flow generation to establish valuation support.
- The pending all-stock Personalis acquisition expands diluted share count toward 225 million shares, significantly dampening per-share earnings accretion over the intermediate horizon.
- High-margin biopharma data licensing provides indispensable operating leverage, but physical sequencing chemistry and lab overhead permanently cap blended gross margins below true software peers.
Tempus AI is building an impressive library of genetic and clinical cancer data that pharmaceutical companies pay top dollar to access. However, the company is often priced like a pure software tech giant even though three-quarters of its business involves running physical, expensive laboratory tests. A recent quarterly profit was actually caused by one-time investment gains rather than true business earnings, and the company continues to burn cash while issuing new shares for major acquisitions.
Key insights
- Most revenue comes from physical lab tests that carry high supply and labor costs, preventing pure software profit margins.
- A recent headline profit was driven by one-off investment gains, concealing real ongoing cash losses in daily operations.
- Upcoming share issuance to purchase another diagnostics company will dilute existing shareholders, limiting near-term stock price gains.
Deep Dive
Prevailing market sentiment treats the asset as an unassailable precision medicine artificial intelligence monopoly that has successfully achieved sustainable GAAP profitability. Sell-side commentary focuses on twenty-five percent revenue compounding, transformational minimal residual disease market acquisitions, and expanding biopharma data licensing. The crowd blithely assigns a ten-times sales multiple, anchoring on scientific prestige while overlooking that trailing free cash flow remains negative 273 million dollars.