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TEM.NASDAQ
Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock
Health Care · Life Sciences Tools & Services

AI-enabled precision medicine company combining diagnostics, clinical data, and analytics to improve oncology and broader care decisions.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock.

Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock (TEM.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 21 September 2026Deep analysis 21 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is arithmetic, not narrative. Tempus has genuinely crossed from cash-burning data experiment to scaled diagnostics platform — Q2 2026 brought $382.5 million revenue, first GAAP net income and positive — yet growth decelerated from 83% to 22% while the September re-rating to 9.9x sales already borrowed the 2027 margin bridge [1][7]. Base case: Personalis closes, ADLT pricing lifts 2027, climbs toward the low twenties by 2030, but consumes most of that fundamental progress. Investors collect mid-single-digit annualised returns along a violently uneven path.

  • FY2026 guidance of $1.595-1.605 billion with ~$65 million implies roughly 225x EV/ today.
  • Assume $4.0 billion 2031 revenue at 22% ; 18x on ~215 million shares approximates $105.
  • Cross-check: that $20 billion equity equals about 5x 2031 sales, still premium to mature diagnostics comparables.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.19.7643.0666.3689.65112.95Jun 2024Apr 2026Jan 2028Nov 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
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Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
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Published advisor forecast2031-03-18100
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Published advisor forecast2031-09-18105

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when reimbursement and data monetisation arrive together rather than sequentially. Broadened MolDX coverage pushes NeXT Personal volumes through Tempus's existing hospital channel, MRD revenue quadruples, and the 100,000-genome library converts into nine-figure pharma licences at software margins. Consolidated growth reaccelerates above 25% with near 30%, and the multiple expands rather than compresses because mix shifts toward recurring data revenue. The share price roughly doubles from here.

Bear case

The bear case activates when decelerating growth meets a reimbursement cut. Q3 and Q4 2026 print near 20%, the guided second-half reacceleration fails, and analysts who chased targets above spot reverse hard. Personalis integration consumes management attention while Signatera defends share on price; a 2028 PAMA reset then erases the ADLT uplift. Goodwill exceeding tangible equity forces a write-down, and a 3.7-beta stock with no earnings floor retraces toward its $36 low.

Current crowd narrative

The tape treats Tempus as the proven AI-in-healthcare winner: a first GAAP-profitable quarter, a transformational MRD acquisition and a 54% one-month gain have hardened into settled fact [1]. The anchoring bias is stark — consensus targets of $62-68 now sit below spot, meaning the crowd is pricing upgrades that have not yet been written, not fundamentals already delivered [19][20].

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd overestimates these shares at $77.80 — modestly overpriced, not absurdly so. The overlooked evidence is arithmetic: market capitalisation roughly doubled from $7.48 billion in July to $14.2 billion in September without any change to FY2026 guidance [9]. That is pure borrowing the 2027 margin bridge in advance. The blind spot is the exchange-ratio : the rally mechanically cheapens Personalis, which sell-side then cites as accretion, which justifies the rally. Circular logic, genuine business.

Convergence catalyst

Q3 2026 results, due late October, are the first clean read on whether the guided second-half reacceleration to roughly 24% is real or arithmetic. A print near 22% with unchanged guidance breaks the upgrade cycle. First observable sign: analysts trimming rather than chasing targets.

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