Tempus AI, Inc. Common Stock (TEM.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 21 September 2026Deep analysis 21 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+35.1%
TEM.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is arithmetic, not narrative. Tempus has genuinely crossed from cash-burning data experiment to scaled diagnostics platform — Q2 2026 brought $382.5 million revenue, first GAAP net income and positive adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry — yet growth decelerated from 83% to 22% while the September re-rating to 9.9x sales already borrowed the 2027 margin bridge [1][7]. Base case: Personalis closes, ADLT pricing lifts 2027, ebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue. climbs toward the low twenties by 2030, but multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry consumes most of that fundamental progress. Investors collect mid-single-digit annualised returns along a violently uneven path.
- FY2026 guidance of $1.595-1.605 billion with ~$65 million adjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations. implies roughly 225x EV/EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry today.
- Assume $4.0 billion 2031 revenue at 22% ebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue.; 18x on ~215 million shares approximates $105.
- Cross-check: that $20 billion equity equals about 5x 2031 sales, still premium to mature diagnostics comparables.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2024-06-14 | 40.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-22 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-26 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-30 | 33.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-08 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-16 | 40.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-24 | 38.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-28 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 39.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 38.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-13 | 42.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-21 | 71.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-25 | 62.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-02 | 53.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-10 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-14 | 51.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-18 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-22 | 55.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-30 | 56.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-08 | 48.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-20 | 48.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-24 | 46.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-28 | 43.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-05 | 44.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-09 | 75.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-21 | 52.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-25 | 63.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-29 | 62.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-07 | 49.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-11 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-27 | 35.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-31 | 33.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-04 | 39.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 34.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-24 | 51.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-28 | 51.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-05 | 69.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 68.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-17 | 83.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-21 | 68.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-01 | 54.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 53.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-13 | 42.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-17 | 49.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-25 | 58.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-02 | 49.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 42.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-10 | 40.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-14 | 43.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-22 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 53.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-04 | 55.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-08 | 65.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-16 | 65.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-20 | 62.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-28 | 53.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-01 | 60.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 66.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 71.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-21 | 67.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-29 | 64.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-03 | 61.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-11 | 56.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-15 | 55.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-23 | 64.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-27 | 62.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-31 | 56.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-08 | 60.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-16 | 75.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-20 | 73.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-24 | 77.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-01 | 77.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-09 | 81.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-13 | 86.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-21 | 86.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-25 | 77.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-03 | 91.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-11 | 95.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-15 | 91.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-23 | 87.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-27 | 91.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-31 | 89.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-08 | 71.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-12 | 71.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 65.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-28 | 77.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-02 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-06 | 76.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-14 | 69.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-18 | 62.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-22 | 65.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-30 | 60.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 69.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-15 | 68.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-19 | 67.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-27 | 66.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-31 | 59.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-08 | 56.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-12 | 50.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-16 | 52.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-20 | 58.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-28 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-04 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-16 | 50.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-20 | 47.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-24 | 48.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-28 | 42.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-05 | 47.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-09 | 44.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 55.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-25 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-03 | 55.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-07 | 49.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 48.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-15 | 43.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-23 | 46.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-31 | 52.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 52.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-12 | 47.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-20 | 49.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-24 | 51.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-28 | 57.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-06 | 60.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-14 | 58.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-18 | 51.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-22 | 47.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-26 | 42.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-03 | 46.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-11 | 55.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-15 | 51.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-23 | 68.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-27 | 70.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-31 | 63.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-12 | 60.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-16 | 70.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 78.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-23 | 76.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 82.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 85.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 77.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 69.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 65.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 70.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 73.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 78.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 74.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 78.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 82.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 86.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 88.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 83.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 88.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 91.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 94.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 96.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 91.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 97.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 100 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 102 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 105 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when reimbursement and data monetisation arrive together rather than sequentially. Broadened MolDX coverage pushes NeXT Personal volumes through Tempus's existing hospital channel, MRD revenue quadruples, and the 100,000-genome library converts into nine-figure pharma licences at software margins. Consolidated growth reaccelerates above 25% with EBITDA marginebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue.View full glossary entry near 30%, and the multiple expands rather than compresses because mix shifts toward recurring data revenue. The share price roughly doubles from here.
Bear case
The bear case activates when decelerating growth meets a reimbursement cut. Q3 and Q4 2026 print near 20%, the guided second-half reacceleration fails, and analysts who chased targets above spot reverse hard. Personalis integration consumes management attention while Signatera defends share on price; a 2028 PAMA reset then erases the ADLT uplift. Goodwill exceeding tangible equity forces a write-down, and a 3.7-beta stock with no earnings floor retraces toward its $36 low.
Current crowd narrative
The tape treats Tempus as the proven AI-in-healthcare winner: a first GAAP-profitable quarter, a transformational MRD acquisition and a 54% one-month gain have hardened into settled fact [1]. The anchoring bias is stark — consensus targets of $62-68 now sit below spot, meaning the crowd is pricing upgrades that have not yet been written, not fundamentals already delivered [19][20].
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd overestimates these shares at $77.80 — modestly overpriced, not absurdly so. The overlooked evidence is arithmetic: market capitalisation roughly doubled from $7.48 billion in July to $14.2 billion in September without any change to FY2026 guidance [9]. That is pure multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry borrowing the 2027 margin bridge in advance. The blind spot is the exchange-ratio reflexivityreflexivityThe feedback loop where investor perceptions influence asset prices, further reinforcing those perceptions in a cycle.View full glossary entry: the rally mechanically cheapens Personalis, which sell-side then cites as accretion, which justifies the rally. Circular logic, genuine business.
Convergence catalyst
Q3 2026 results, due late October, are the first clean read on whether the guided second-half reacceleration to roughly 24% is real or arithmetic. A print near 22% with unchanged guidance breaks the upgrade cycle. First observable sign: analysts trimming rather than chasing targets.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.