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IOT.NYSE
Samsara
Information Technology · Application Software

Connected operations cloud company providing IoT telemetry, fleet management, safety, and workflow software for physical operations.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Samsara.

Samsara Inc (IOT.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is arithmetic against operations. Operationally Samsara is winning: 30% at a $2.1 billion base, a fourth straight GAAP-profitable quarter, 96% multi-product attach in large accounts. Financially, the market is paying 12.6x trailing sales at a 5% ten-year yield, and the September round trip from 45 back to 39.50 showed the overruling a clean beat. Base case: growth decays from 26% toward the high teens, non-GAAP grinds above 25%, and the sales multiple compresses toward 8-9x. Compounding revenue outruns compressing multiples, but only modestly per share after .

  • Revenue near $4.5-4.7 billion by FY2032 assumes 26% decaying to roughly 15% growth.
  • Nine times forward sales on that base implies approaching $40 billion.
  • Roughly 650 million diluted shares then yields a high-fifties price, near 8% annualized.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.4.2119.5534.8950.2365.57Dec 2021May 2024Nov 2026Apr 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-12-1524.7
Observed price2021-12-1923.3
Observed price2021-12-2729.4
Observed price2022-01-1224.8
Observed price2022-01-2816.66
Observed price2022-02-0924.5
Observed price2022-02-2116.55
Observed price2022-03-0117.47
Observed price2022-03-1314.38
Observed price2022-03-2917.94
Observed price2022-04-1013.37
Observed price2022-04-1413.31
Observed price2022-04-3012.47
Observed price2022-05-249.71
Observed price2022-05-2811.44
Observed price2022-06-1310.06
Observed price2022-06-2112.40
Observed price2022-06-2911.48
Observed price2022-07-1514.19
Observed price2022-07-2713.91
Observed price2022-08-0816.48
Observed price2022-08-1616.86
Observed price2022-09-0112.94
Observed price2022-09-0913.05
Observed price2022-09-2511.62
Observed price2022-10-0713.11
Observed price2022-10-1511.01
Observed price2022-10-3112.31
Observed price2022-11-089.32
Observed price2022-11-209.34
Observed price2022-12-0211.90
Observed price2022-12-1413.49
Observed price2022-12-2611.96
Observed price2023-01-0711.42
Observed price2023-01-2313.24
Observed price2023-01-3113.64
Observed price2023-02-1615.85
Observed price2023-02-2416.04
Observed price2023-03-0821.1
Observed price2023-03-2418.13
Observed price2023-04-0119.81
Observed price2023-04-2122.2
Observed price2023-04-2918.03
Observed price2023-05-0316.89
Observed price2023-05-1520.3
Observed price2023-05-2719.20
Observed price2023-06-1229.9
Observed price2023-06-2028.2
Observed price2023-06-2425.8
Observed price2023-07-1829.1
Observed price2023-07-2626.0
Observed price2023-08-0725.3
Observed price2023-08-1523.6
Observed price2023-09-0431.6
Observed price2023-09-2025.2
Observed price2023-09-2423.4
Observed price2023-10-0625.7
Observed price2023-10-2622.1
Observed price2023-11-0725.1
Observed price2023-11-1123.9
Observed price2023-12-0134.6
Observed price2023-12-0933.8
Observed price2023-12-1335.9
Observed price2024-01-0631.1
Observed price2024-01-1433.4
Observed price2024-01-2630.9
Observed price2024-02-1134.8
Observed price2024-02-1933.3
Observed price2024-03-0235.3
Observed price2024-03-1436.9
Observed price2024-03-2639.4
Observed price2024-04-0334.5
Observed price2024-04-1930.1
Observed price2024-05-0135.3
Observed price2024-05-1740.9
Observed price2024-05-2141.0
Observed price2024-06-1030.9
Observed price2024-06-1428.1
Observed price2024-07-0436.2
Observed price2024-07-1638.3
Observed price2024-07-2435.4
Observed price2024-08-0535.6
Observed price2024-08-2141.3
Observed price2024-09-0239.7
Observed price2024-09-1047.3
Observed price2024-09-2249.4
Observed price2024-10-0847.3
Observed price2024-10-1250.5
Observed price2024-11-0146.2
Observed price2024-11-0548.2
Observed price2024-11-2555.5
Observed price2024-12-0354.6
Observed price2024-12-1942.7
Observed price2024-12-2345.6
Observed price2025-01-1243.6
Observed price2025-01-1645.8
Observed price2025-02-0554.0
Observed price2025-02-1760.5
Observed price2025-03-0147.1
Observed price2025-03-0543.6
Observed price2025-03-0934.5
Observed price2025-03-2938.7
Observed price2025-04-0633.6
Observed price2025-04-2235.5
Observed price2025-05-1245.3
Observed price2025-05-1647.4
Observed price2025-05-2445.8
Observed price2025-06-0944.7
Observed price2025-06-1738.2
Observed price2025-07-0339.1
Observed price2025-07-1137.4
Observed price2025-07-2739.4
Observed price2025-08-1232.7
Observed price2025-08-2033.0
Observed price2025-09-0542.1
Observed price2025-09-2139.6
Observed price2025-09-2937.2
Observed price2025-10-1937.0
Observed price2025-10-2739.9
Observed price2025-10-3140.2
Observed price2025-11-2035.0
Observed price2025-11-2436.3
Observed price2025-12-1045.0
Observed price2025-12-2238.4
Observed price2026-01-0334.0
Observed price2026-01-1534.3
Observed price2026-01-3127.5
Observed price2026-02-0425.1
Observed price2026-02-2026.8
Observed price2026-03-0428.7
Observed price2026-03-0834.6
Observed price2026-03-2432.1
Observed price2026-04-1326.6
Observed price2026-04-2131.4
Observed price2026-04-2929.4
Observed price2026-05-1129.1
Observed price2026-05-3137.4
Observed price2026-06-0435.2
Observed price2026-06-2431.2
Observed price2026-06-2831.8
Observed price2026-07-1838.4
Observed price2026-07-2233.3
Observed price2026-08-0740.9
Observed price2026-08-1939.2
Observed price2026-08-2741.9
Observed price2026-09-1640.7
Observed price2026-09-2138.0
Observed price2026-09-2439.3
Observed price2026-09-2538.0
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1839.5
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1840.7
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1838.7
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1841.0
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1843.1
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1844.8
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1843.5
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1845.6
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1847.4
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1848.9
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1849.9
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1851.8
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1849.8
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1851.8
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1853.3
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1854.4
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1856.0
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1857.1
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1855.4
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1857.1
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1858.8

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when two clocks align: AI agents convert engagement into contracted just as inflation breaks and the Fed cuts. Sustained mid-twenties growth past FY2029 reframes Samsara as a durable rather than a decelerating telematics vendor, which halts ; simultaneously, a falling expands what investors pay for distant cash flows. recovers above 15% of revenue as the inventory build clears, validating the margin ramp. Both together support a price near ninety.

Bear case

The bear case begins the quarter net new falls year over year. A newly public Motive, armed with IPO capital, discounts into the mid-market that the lost ITC case left unprotected; growth breaks below 18%, and the market discovers that reported profit was largely interest income rather than . Persistent tariff and mineral costs keep cash conversion depressed, removing the offsetting proof. Multiple resets toward 5-6x sales, halving the share price despite rising revenue.

Current crowd narrative

Consensus treats durability as settled and price as the only question. The street raised targets to $48-55 after the Q2 beat [1][6], yet the stock round-tripped to 39.50 [8]. The anchoring bias is the February 2025 closing high of 60.96 [18]: bulls call 12.6x sales cheap versus memory, ignoring that a 5% ten-year yield redefines fair value for pure-duration software.

Alpha-gap assessment

Mild underpricing, but the edge is narrower than bulls claim. The overlooked evidence is forensic: trailing net income of $90.6 million exceeds trailing operating income of $19.4 million, meaning reported profitability is substantially interest on the cash pile, not operations. The crowd extrapolates a GAAP earnings inflection that rates giveth and could taketh away. Offsetting that, the market underestimates how rare sustained 30% at a $2.1 billion base is, and pays only 11-12x forward sales for it.

Convergence catalyst

The FY2028 guidance print in early 2027 is the hinge. A guide above 22% revenue growth with free-cash-flow margin recovering would prove the inventory build was cyclical, not structural. First observable sign of repricing: net new growing year over year alongside sequential gross-.

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