Samsara Inc (IOT.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+48.7%
IOT.NYSE does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is arithmetic against operations. Operationally Samsara is winning: 30% ARR growtharr growthThe increase in annual recurring revenue over a specified period.View full glossary entry at a $2.1 billion base, a fourth straight GAAP-profitable quarter, 96% multi-product attach in large accounts. Financially, the market is paying 12.6x trailing sales at a 5% ten-year yield, and the September round trip from 45 back to 39.50 showed the discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry overruling a clean beat. Base case: growth decays from 26% toward the high teens, non-GAAP operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry grinds above 25%, and the sales multiple compresses toward 8-9x. Compounding revenue outruns compressing multiples, but only modestly per share after dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry.
- Revenue near $4.5-4.7 billion by FY2032 assumes 26% decaying to roughly 15% growth.
- Nine times forward sales on that base implies enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry approaching $40 billion.
- Roughly 650 million diluted shares then yields a high-fifties price, near 8% annualized.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-12-15 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-19 | 23.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-27 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-12 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-28 | 16.66 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-09 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-21 | 16.55 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-01 | 17.47 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-13 | 14.38 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-29 | 17.94 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-10 | 13.37 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-14 | 13.31 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-30 | 12.47 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-24 | 9.71 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-28 | 11.44 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 10.06 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-21 | 12.40 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-29 | 11.48 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-15 | 14.19 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-27 | 13.91 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-08 | 16.48 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 16.86 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-01 | 12.94 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-09 | 13.05 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-25 | 11.62 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-07 | 13.11 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-15 | 11.01 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-31 | 12.31 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-08 | 9.32 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-20 | 9.34 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-02 | 11.90 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 13.49 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-26 | 11.96 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-07 | 11.42 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-23 | 13.24 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 13.64 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-16 | 15.85 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-24 | 16.04 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-08 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-24 | 18.13 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 19.81 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-21 | 22.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-29 | 18.03 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 16.89 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-15 | 20.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-27 | 19.20 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-12 | 29.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-20 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-24 | 25.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-18 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-26 | 26.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 25.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-15 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-20 | 25.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-24 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-06 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-26 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-07 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-11 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-01 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 33.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-13 | 35.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-06 | 31.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-14 | 33.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-26 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-11 | 34.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-02 | 35.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-14 | 36.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-26 | 39.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-03 | 34.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-19 | 30.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 35.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-17 | 40.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 41.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-10 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-14 | 28.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-04 | 36.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-16 | 38.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-24 | 35.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 35.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-21 | 41.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-02 | 39.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-10 | 47.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-22 | 49.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-08 | 47.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 50.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-01 | 46.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-05 | 48.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-25 | 55.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-03 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 42.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-23 | 45.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 43.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 45.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-05 | 54.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-17 | 60.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-01 | 47.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 43.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-09 | 34.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-29 | 38.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-22 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-12 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-16 | 47.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-24 | 45.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 44.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-17 | 38.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-03 | 39.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-11 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-27 | 39.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-12 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-20 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-05 | 42.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-21 | 39.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-29 | 37.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-19 | 37.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-27 | 39.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-31 | 40.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-24 | 36.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-10 | 45.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-22 | 38.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-03 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-15 | 34.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-31 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-20 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-04 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-08 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-24 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-13 | 26.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-29 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 29.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-31 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 35.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-24 | 31.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-28 | 31.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-18 | 38.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-22 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-07 | 40.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-19 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-27 | 41.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-16 | 40.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 38.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 39.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 38.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 39.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 40.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 38.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 41.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 43.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 44.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 43.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 45.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 47.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 48.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 49.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 51.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 49.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 51.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 53.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 54.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 56.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 57.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 55.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 57.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 58.8 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when two clocks align: AI agents convert engagement into contracted ARRannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry just as inflation breaks and the Fed cuts. Sustained mid-twenties growth past FY2029 reframes Samsara as a durable compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry rather than a decelerating telematics vendor, which halts multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry; simultaneously, a falling discount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value. expands what investors pay for distant cash flows. Free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry recovers above 15% of revenue as the inventory build clears, validating the margin ramp. Both together support a price near ninety.
Bear case
The bear case begins the quarter net new annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. falls year over year. A newly public Motive, armed with IPO capital, discounts into the mid-market that the lost ITC case left unprotected; growth breaks below 18%, and the market discovers that reported profit was largely interest income rather than operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry. Persistent tariff and mineral costs keep cash conversion depressed, removing the offsetting proof. Multiple resets toward 5-6x sales, halving the share price despite rising revenue.
Current crowd narrative
Consensus treats durability as settled and price as the only question. The street raised targets to $48-55 after the Q2 beat [1][6], yet the stock round-tripped to 39.50 [8]. The anchoring bias is the February 2025 closing high of 60.96 [18]: bulls call 12.6x sales cheap versus memory, ignoring that a 5% ten-year yield redefines fair value for pure-duration software.
Alpha-gap assessment
Mild underpricing, but the edge is narrower than bulls claim. The overlooked evidence is forensic: trailing net income of $90.6 million exceeds trailing operating income of $19.4 million, meaning reported profitability is substantially interest on the cash pile, not operations. The crowd extrapolates a GAAP earnings inflection that rates giveth and could taketh away. Offsetting that, the market underestimates how rare sustained 30% arr growthThe increase in annual recurring revenue over a specified period. at a $2.1 billion base is, and pays only 11-12x forward sales for it.
Convergence catalyst
The FY2028 guidance print in early 2027 is the hinge. A guide above 22% revenue growth with free-cash-flow margin recovering would prove the inventory build was cyclical, not structural. First observable sign of repricing: net new annual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items. growing year over year alongside sequential gross-margin expansionmargin expansionAn increase in profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry.
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