Historical AI Consensus

This page preserves the research and market snapshot packaged for this batch. It is not updated with later prices or revised advisor outputs.

Symbol: RBRK.NYSE
Batch: 7
Published: September 20, 2026
AI Advisors: 14

Historical AI Consensus Investment Thesis

Rubrik (RBRK) Stock Forecast and AI Rating

Deep analysis published Sep 21 2026Original pricing snapshot Sep 18 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

12 min read

Published 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook

Forecast targets and rating

Published batch rating

NEUTRAL

Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.

2027

1-Year

PARTIAL SELL

$98

-8.5%

2031

5-Year

NEUTRAL

$129

+20.9%

Published batch insight

Enterprise Cyber Resilience Cash Compounding Collides With Hawkish Valuation Gravity

High consensus confirms Rubrik's operational excellence in zero-trust data resilience, driving rapid subscription expansion and positive free cash flow float. However, elevated sovereign bond yields and aggressive stock-based compensation dilution enforce substantial multiple compression, tempering long-term per-share equity appreciation.

Deep Forecast Analysis by iPulse AI Engine

This analysis preserves the original published batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency

Universal Investor (Polymath), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Elon Musk (Visionary), Machiavelli (Insider), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), Michael Burry (Vulture), J.P. Morgan (Titan). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.

Computed on these frontier AI models

Gemini

Claude

ChatGPT

Full published thesis

Executive Summary

If you invested $10,000 in Rubrik at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $12,094 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.

Rubrik · Synthesized ConsensusS&P 500 benchmark

Figure: Five-year synthesized consensus value path for Rubrik compared with S&P 500 benchmark. The path uses the synthesizer’s normalized opinion weights.

20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView table

Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.

Anchor: 106.71 USD1-year price return: -8.52%5-year price return: +20.94%

Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.

Twenty quarterly synthesized price forecasts in USD, with returns and rationale
Quarter	Target (USD)	Quarter return	Total return	Forecast rationale
Q4 2026	100.75	-5.59%	-5.59%	Restrictive monetary policy and five percent benchmark yields compress software multiples. Despite solid quarterly subscription billings, elevated starting sales valuations prompt institutional de-risking and profit-taking across high-beta technology portfolios.
Q1 2027	99.43	-1.31%	-6.82%	Fiscal year-end reporting highlights strong subscription expansion, but persistent GAAP operating deficits and material-rights accounting runoff dampen sentiment, keeping valuation multiples capped under higher-for-longer interest rate conditions.
Q2 2027	98.71	-0.72%	-7.49%	Enterprise software budget scrutiny and competitor pricing battles elongate enterprise procurement cycles. Valuation multiples absorb lingering macro pressure, though resilient gross margins above eighty percent prevent sharp fundamental deterioration.
Q3 2027	97.62	-1.11%	-8.52%	Heightened ransomware activity and federal zero-trust compliance deadlines drive steady enterprise additions. Expanding cloud data security posture management contracts stabilize billings, establishing a cyclical valuation floor across enterprise accounts.
Q4 2027	99.83	+2.26%	-6.45%	Seasonal enterprise budget flushes and accelerating Microsoft Azure co-selling partnerships deliver solid multi-year subscription bookings. Free cash flow generation cushions the equity against macro volatility, supporting modest price stabilization.
Q1 2028	102.18	+2.36%	-4.25%	Fiscal 2028 full-year results confirm operating leverage improvements, with subscription contribution margins expanding toward eighteen percent. Upfront deferred billings bolster cash reserves, encouraging institutional accumulation despite sticky discount rates.
Q2 2028	103.01	+0.81%	-3.47%	Aggressive pricing friction from consolidated legacy backup rivals prompts selective discounting in commercial renewals. Revenue growth continues, but slightly trimmed incremental contribution margins temper upward share-price momentum.
Q3 2028	105.33	+2.26%	-1.29%	Commercial monetization of agentic artificial intelligence security accelerates as enterprises adopt automated rollback protections. High-margin subscription module upsells lift net retention and drive a constructive fundamental quarterly performance.
Q4 2028	108.68	+3.17%	+1.84%	Large enterprise contract expansions and FedRAMP sovereign demand reinforce double-digit recurring revenue gains. Robust cash collections expand trailing cash flow, though employee equity issuance continues to restrain per-share appreciation.
Q1 2029	111.24	+2.36%	+4.24%	Fiscal 2029 results demonstrate narrowing GAAP operating losses as post-listing administrative expenses normalize. Strong annual cash generation crossing five hundred million dollars confirms the viability of Rubrik's self-funding model.
Q2 2029	112.35	+1.00%	+5.28%	Top-line revenue growth naturally moderates toward mid-twenties percentages as installed enterprise base expands. Multiples drift lower toward historical software norms, balancing fundamental cash-flow expansion with routine valuation multiple digestion.
Q3 2029	114.72	+2.12%	+7.51%	Deepening international expansion across European and Asian financial corridors offsets domestic market maturity. High switching costs and ninety-five percent logo retention ensure predictable subscription compounding across multi-cloud environments.
Q4 2029	118.01	+2.87%	+10.59%	Year-end enterprise security renewals demonstrate strong customer lifetime values. Broad market recognition of Rubrik's emergent tollbooth on enterprise agentic data workflows supports modest quarterly valuation appreciation.
Q1 2030	120.60	+2.19%	+13.02%	Fiscal 2030 financial results approach maiden GAAP operating breakeven, sparking positive revisions from institutional quality screens. Cash conversion remains elite, providing balance-sheet insulation against broader macroeconomic tightening.
Q2 2030	120.87	+0.22%	+13.27%	Management successfully addresses the June 2030 convertible senior notes maturity utilizing accumulated organic cash reserves. Resolving refinancing overhang reassures markets, though liquidity deployment temporarily restrains equity repurchase programs.
Q3 2030	123.79	+2.42%	+16.01%	Removal of debt overhang allows market focus to return to core unit economics. Expanding runtime artificial intelligence governance modules support healthy contract values, driving low-volatility per-share fundamental progress.
Q4 2030	126.07	+1.84%	+18.14%	Defensive zero-trust architecture shields Rubrik from cyclical corporate spending cutbacks. Maturing sales productivity delivers consistent high-margin subscription cash flows, supporting steady price performance into calendar year-end.
Q1 2031	127.92	+1.47%	+19.88%	Fiscal 2031 annual disclosures confirm full-year GAAP net profitability alongside substantial free cash flow. The board authorizes regular share repurchases, neutralizing ongoing employee dilution and improving per-share intrinsic compounding.
Q2 2031	128.23	+0.24%	+20.17%	Enterprise data protection market approaches broad modernization saturation, moderating top-line revenue expansion into the upper teens. The stock behaves like an established software utility, with cash returns anchoring valuation.
Q3 2031	129.06	+0.64%	+20.94%	The five-year forecast closes with Rubrik established as an indispensable enterprise resilience fixture. Normalized valuation multiples and durable twenty-percent-plus free cash margins anchor terminal equity value through the cycle.

Rubrik presents an exceptional economic franchise whose equity returns will be largely governed by valuation arithmetic rather than operational failure. The business operates as an indispensable enterprise resilience utility, commanding eighty percent gross margins and net revenue retention exceeding one hundred nineteen percent. Upfront multi-year subscription billing unlocks a negative working capital float, generating over three hundred million dollars in trailing free cash flow and eliminating sovereign debt reliance. However, at fourteen times trailing sales and a thin headline cash yield, starting valuation already prices in immaculate multi-year execution against five percent Treasury yields. As top-line expansion decelerates toward twenty percent, structural sales multiple compression toward eight times will absorb the majority of underlying revenue growth.

Key insights

Persistent stock-based compensation exceeding three hundred million dollars annually dilutes share count by three to four percent, divorcing operational growth from per-share intrinsic value.
Upfront subscription float decouples operating liquidity from negative GAAP net margins, insulating the enterprise from credit shocks despite negative accounting book equity.
Autonomous agent deployment transforms immutable data recovery from peripheral backup into essential operational runtime defense, defending terminal enterprise pricing power.

Deep Dive

Consensus treats Rubrik as an unassailable cybersecurity champion, celebrating thirty-eight percent top-line expansion, rapid annual recurring revenue growth, and positive headline free cash flow. Market participants assume secular ransomware threats and artificial intelligence tailwinds ensure perpetual pricing power. Investors willingly pay fourteen times sales, presuming optical cash flow demonstrates business maturity while treating persistent GAAP operating losses, negative book equity, and five percent bond yields as irrelevant.

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Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts

Where the published AI consensus diverged from the market narrative

Market narrative

Alpha gap

The crowd overestimates Rubrik's equity value by confusing working capital float with genuine owner earnings. Consensus naively capitalizes upfront deferred revenue while ignoring that more than three hundred million dollars in annual stock-based compensation subsidizes cash generation and continuously dilutes public shareholders. Furthermore, pricing an unprofitable capital structure at fourteen times sales leaves zero margin of safety against elevated discount rates; unavoidable multiple contraction will absorb the majority of fundamental top-line compounding.

Repricing catalyst

Valuation repricing will be triggered as subscription annual recurring revenue growth inevitably decelerates below thirty percent during fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings prints. As top-line deceleration reveals persistent GAAP operating deficits and ongoing three-to-four percent annual share dilution, institutional growth algorithms and sell-side analysts will be forced to compress forward sales multiples toward historical enterprise software peer averages.

Published consensus context

Macro regime alignment

The prevailing macroeconomic regime of restrictive monetary policy, with policy rates near four percent and ten-year sovereign yields hovering near five percent, acts as a severe valuation headwind. While mission-critical cybersecurity spending remains highly resilient across enterprise IT budgets, elevated discount rates severely penalize long-duration, GAAP-unprofitable equities, capping valuation multiples regardless of pristine operational execution.

Published consensus context

Advisor disagreement

The primary analytical dispute across reports centers on how quickly high benchmark bond yields will enforce sales multiple compression against Rubrik's robust operational compounding. Optimistic views argue that Rubrik's emerging tollbooth over enterprise AI agent data workflows and rapid gross margin expansion will insulate shares, defending double-digit revenue multiples. Conversely, skeptical perspectives emphasize that optical cash flow is heavily distorted by upfront deferred billing float and massive stock compensation, warning that multiple contraction toward single digits will severely depress per-share equity returns. Tracking upcoming net new ARR cadence alongside quarterly GAAP operating margins will definitively resolve this debate.

Published scenario analysis

Base-case forces, risks, and opportunities

Top drivers and tailwinds

Ransomware crisis forces cyber resilience spending: Proliferating ransomware attacks and state-sponsored cyber sabotage force corporate boards to prioritize immutable data recovery over perimeter prevention alone. Rubrik's zero-trust architecture provides verifiable recovery guarantees, transforming data resilience into an existential operational mandate. This non-discretionary spending priority sustains net retention above 119% and fuels durable subscription revenue expansion across Global 2000 enterprise accounts. Expected impact: +28%.
Agentic AI data governance platform monetization: Enterprise adoption of autonomous artificial intelligence agents creates acute unstructured data exfiltration and prompt contamination risks. Rubrik Agent Cloud and proprietary metadata telemetry provide automated runtime access controls and instantaneous operational rollback. This capability allows frictionless cross-selling of high-margin governance modules into the installed base, expanding average contract values and cementing platform stickiness. Expected impact: +24%.
Subscription float enables structural operating leverage: Multi-year upfront subscription invoicing generates substantial negative working capital float, producing over $320 million in trailing free cash flow. As gross margins hold near 80% and post-IPO corporate overhead normalizes, subscription contribution margins expand past 15%. This structural operating efficiency enables self-funded platform engineering, shielding liquidity while narrowing GAAP accounting deficits toward eventual breakeven. Expected impact: +22%.
Cloud hyperscaler distribution and co-sell flywheel: Deep go-to-market alliances with Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud allow enterprise clients to draw down committed hyperscaler spending directly on Rubrik software licenses. This distribution integration shortens sales cycles, lowers marginal customer acquisition costs, and expands cloud annual recurring revenue above 38%, reinforcing market share capture against legacy storage incumbents. Expected impact: +18%.

Top frictions and headwinds

Elevated discount rates compress growth multiples: With benchmark sovereign ten-year yields anchored near 5.0% and central banks maintaining restrictive policy, long-duration growth assets face relentless multiple compression gravity. Trading at fourteen times sales with negative GAAP net income, Rubrik's starting valuation leaves no margin for error. As market hurdle rates normalize, multiple contraction from 14x toward 7x will neutralize fundamental expansion. Expected impact: -28%.
Persistent stock-based compensation dilutes owner earnings: Rubrik's headline free cash flow conceals a significant economic drag: annual stock-based compensation exceeding $300 million subsidizes talent retention while expanding fully diluted share counts by 3% to 5% annually. This ongoing dilution siphons enterprise value from public shareholders, depressing per-share cash flow compounding and keeping GAAP operating margins firmly in negative territory. Expected impact: -20%.
Consolidated rival bundling and pricing warfare: The completed merger between Cohesity and Veritas, alongside aggressive cloud backup bundling from Commvault and native hyperscaler storage utilities, creates severe enterprise pricing friction. Consolidated rivals offer discounted multi-product suites in hybrid environments, lengthening Rubrik's sales cycles, necessitating targeted renewal discounting, and compressing long-term terminal operating margin expectations. Expected impact: -17%.
Natural growth deceleration in enterprise storage: As subscription annual recurring revenue crosses $1.8 billion, the law of large numbers inevitably moderates top-line growth from 48% toward the low 20% range. Corporate IT budget scrutiny and cloud migration normalization elongate enterprise procurement reviews, forcing markets to transition Rubrik's valuation framework from speculative hypergrowth to a mature cash-flow multiple. Expected impact: -15%.

Tail risks

Catastrophic breach of immutable recovery vaults: A sophisticated state-sponsored threat actor could discover an architectural zero-day exploit that corrupts Rubrik's proprietary Atlas file system or exfiltrates cryptographic keys during a major corporate extortion attack. Because Rubrik's premium pricing rests entirely on guaranteed recoverability, compromised immutability would ignite immediate enterprise churn, brand destruction, and catastrophic multiple collapse. Probability: +18%. Expected impact: -52%.
Hyperscaler native automated resilience bundling assault: Microsoft Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud could collaboratively develop and natively integrate zero-cost immutable snapshotting and automated data posture management directly into standard cloud storage tiers by 2028. Aggressive bundling of good-enough native tools would undercut third-party data resilience pricing, compress gross margins toward 65%, and stall net new ARR additions. Probability: +26%. Expected impact: -38%.

Tail opportunities

Mandatory federal sovereign cyber resilience standard: Western defense and cybersecurity authorities could enact binding statutory regulations mandating air-gapped, zero-trust automated cyber recovery across all critical national infrastructure and defense contractors by 2028. Rubrik's elite FedRAMP High authorizations would secure exclusive sole-source public contracts, lifting subscription ARR growth above 40% and accelerating GAAP profitability two years ahead of expectations. Probability: +28%. Expected impact: +42%.
Strategic mega-cap cloud acquisition buyout: A dominant cloud hyperscaler, seeking absolute control over enterprise data resilience and AI model protection pipelines, could initiate an unsolicited cash-and-stock acquisition by 2029. Consolidating Rubrik's multi-cloud metadata telemetry would command a 40% control premium over market prices, immediately monetizing the franchise while eliminating long-term public dilution and multiple compression frictions. Probability: +22%. Expected impact: +45%.

What to monitor

Thesis watchpoints

-- Quarterly subscription ARR growth sustaining above 30% alongside gross margins exceeding 80% over the next four quarters confirms durable moat defensibility.

Key insights

Trailing subscription net retention slipping below 115% or quarterly GAAP operating losses widening beyond -$80 million signals severe competitive pricing deterioration.
Disclosed commercial adoption of Rubrik Agent Cloud stalling under 100 enterprise customers by late 2027 requires immediate reassessment of AI growth optionality.

Company Financial Analysis

Rubrik Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI

Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.

Earnings and financials

AI Review

Rubrik's headline financials tell a story of rapid sales growth paired with ongoing accounting deficits. In the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2026, revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $427 million, while subscription annual recurring revenue reached $1.66 billion. However, the company reported a trailing twelve-month GAAP net loss of -$254 million, weighed down by substantial employee stock-based compensation awards. Despite headline net losses, cash generation is expanding rapidly. Trailing free cash flow reached $321 million, fueled by corporate customers paying for multi-year software contracts upfront. While this deferred revenue provides self-funding cash to expand operations, true per-share economic profits will remain constrained until GAAP operating results turn permanently positive.

Revenue, earnings, and cash flow

The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.

Revenue, net income, and free cash flow history
Fiscal year	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2026	USD 1.3B	USD -348.8M	USD 253.3M
2025	USD 886.5M	USD -1.2B	USD 31.3M
2024	USD 627.9M	USD -354.2M	USD -16.9M
2023	USD 599.8M	USD -277.7M	USD -15M
2022	USD 506.1M	USD -254.4M	USD -103.2M

Valuation context: historical P/E

The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.

Historical price-to-earnings ratios
Fiscal year	P/E	Earnings basis	Currency basis	Ticker / reporting
2026	--	TTM	Loss-making	USD / USD
2025	--	TTM	Loss-making	USD / USD
2024	--	TTM	Unavailable	USD / USD
2023	--	Annual	Unavailable	USD / USD
2022	--	Annual	Unavailable	USD / USD

P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.

Profitability and margins

AI Review

Gross profit margins have displayed remarkable expansion, surging from 53.3% in fiscal 2022 to 80.1% in fiscal 2026. This dramatic improvement reflects the company's completed transition away from legacy physical storage appliances toward pure, high-margin cloud software subscriptions. Pricing power remains strong as enterprises treat data security as non-negotiable. In contrast, GAAP operating margins remain negative at -26.2% for fiscal 2026, though showing substantial recovery from historical lows. Substantial sales commissions and executive stock grants continue to absorb gross profits. Long-term margin health depends on whether sales productivity can compound revenue faster than operating expenses to reach permanent GAAP profitability.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.

Operating income and margin history
Fiscal year	Operating income	Operating margin	Net margin
2026	USD -345.4M	-26.2%	-26.5%
2025	USD -1.1B	-127.9%	-130.3%
2024	USD -306.5M	-48.8%	-56.4%
2023	USD -261.5M	-43.6%	-46.3%
2022	USD -249.8M	-49.4%	-50.3%

Balance sheet and leverage

AI Review

Rubrik's balance sheet provides comfortable near-term liquidity despite unusual accounting optics. The company holds $1.75 billion in liquid cash and short-term investments against $1.15 billion in zero-coupon convertible senior notes due in June 2030. This leaves the enterprise in a net cash position with no immediate debt servicing costs or covenant restrictions. However, historical accounting losses before the initial public offering have pushed stockholders' equity to -$520 million. While common in high-growth software firms due to unearned deferred revenue accounting, it highlights that shareholders have no tangible asset backing. Solvency depends entirely on maintaining strong customer renewal cash flows rather than physical collateral.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.

Balance sheet leverage and liquidity history
Fiscal year	Total debt	Cash + short-term investments	Net cash / (debt)	Current ratio
2026	USD 1.1B	USD 1.7B	USD 750.5M net debt	1.69x
2025	USD 350.8M	USD 705.1M	USD 164.5M net debt	1.13x
2024	USD 309.3M	USD 279.3M	USD 179.3M net debt	0.84x
2023	USD 216M	USD 295.9M	USD 80.2M net debt	1.17x
2022	USD 33.2M	USD 138.8M	USD 37.8M net cash	0.98x

Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.

Capex and investment intensity

AI Review

Rubrik operates an extremely capital-light business model that minimizes physical asset spending. Capital expenditures absorbed just 2.25% of revenue in fiscal 2026, as the company delivers software via commercial cloud providers rather than constructing proprietary data centers. This structure avoids heavy physical hardware depreciation, allowing operational cash to flow straight into free cash flow. Instead of physical plant, capital reinvestment is heavily focused on software engineering and product innovation. Research and development consumed $374 million in fiscal 2026 to support automated recovery and artificial intelligence data protection. Payback on this intellectual spending will ultimately be measured by whether new software modules expand profit margins over time.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.

Capital expenditure and research and development history
Fiscal year	Capital expenditure	R&D spend
2026	USD 29.6M	USD 373.7M
2025	USD 16.9M	USD 531.6M
2024	USD 12.3M	USD 189.8M
2023	USD 34.3M	USD 158.8M
2022	USD 20.4M	USD 159.6M

Immutable published data

Averaged consensus horizons

The table preserves this publication's original rating, return, and advisor-agreement measurements by forecast horizon.

Horizon	Rating	Score incl. dividends	Compounded return incl. dividends	Direction agreement	Snapshot
1Y	PARTIALLY_SELL	-126	-7.9%	Not available	ORIGINAL
5Y	NEUTRAL	4	+23.3%	Not available	ORIGINAL

Averaged consensus scenarios

The table outlines the frozen bear, consensus, and bull price scenarios for each published forecast period.

Period	Date	Bear case	Consensus	Bull case	AI Advisors
+3M	December 18, 2026	98.17	101.3	109.91	14
+6M	March 18, 2027	93.26	99.5	114.31	14
+9M	June 18, 2027	84.87	99	116.59	14
+1Y	September 18, 2027	79.78	98.29	122.42	14
+15M	December 18, 2027	81.37	100.2	129.77	14
+18M	March 18, 2028	84.63	102.4	136.26	14
+21M	June 18, 2028	85.81	103.51	141.71	14
+2Y	September 18, 2028	83.23	105.76	150.21	14
+27M	December 18, 2028	83.22	109	157.72	14
+30M	March 18, 2029	80.72	111.51	164.03	14
+33M	June 18, 2029	83.15	113.25	172.23	14
+3Y	September 18, 2029	81.48	115.5	179.12	14
+39M	December 18, 2029	79.04	118.83	188.08	14
+42M	March 18, 2030	77.46	121.59	195.6	14
+45M	June 18, 2030	79.87	122.54	205.38	14
+4Y	September 18, 2030	78.14	125.47	213.59	14
+51M	December 18, 2030	76.58	127.84	220	14
+54M	March 18, 2031	75.05	129.93	226.6	14
+57M	June 18, 2031	76.55	130.5	231.13	14
+5Y	September 18, 2031	75.02	131.57	235.76	14

Frozen comparison context

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust forecast context

The benchmark definition and forecast path are frozen with this publication so future benchmark changes do not rewrite the historical comparison.

Benchmark snapshot: 761.69 on September 18, 2026

Period	Date	Bear case	Consensus	Bull case
+3M	December 18, 2026	723.6055	750.2647	769.3069
+6M	March 18, 2027	701.8973	736.44	784.693
+9M	June 18, 2027	695.1	743.3975	808.2338
+1Y	September 18, 2027	681.198	755.1476	816.3162
+15M	December 18, 2027	688.01	776.2182	840.8057
+18M	March 18, 2028	701.7702	787.1259	857.6218
+21M	June 18, 2028	722.8233	802.8344	883.3504
+2Y	September 18, 2028	730.0515	812.0465	892.1839
+27M	December 18, 2028	751.9531	839.1839	927.8713
+30M	March 18, 2029	766.9921	850.5008	946.4287
+33M	June 18, 2029	782.332	872.3935	965.3573
+3Y	September 18, 2029	790.1553	885.5111	975.0109
+39M	December 18, 2029	805.9584	909.5618	1,004.2612
+42M	March 18, 2030	822.0776	916.132	1,024.3464
+45M	June 18, 2030	830.2984	936.5109	1,055.0768
+4Y	September 18, 2030	830.2984	947.3438	1,065.6276
+51M	December 18, 2030	855.2073	969.5876	1,097.5964
+54M	March 18, 2031	872.3114	979.9863	1,119.5483
+57M	June 18, 2031	889.7577	999.6043	1,141.9393
+5Y	September 18, 2031	898.6553	1,011.7644	1,153.3587

Behind the synthesis

How each opinion shapes the consensus

14 opinions · 100% allocated

The independently supported consensus reveals a high-performing enterprise cyber resilience platform whose fundamental expansion is heavily counteracted by starting valuation friction. Across rigorous reports, independent verification confirms subscription revenue compounding above thirty percent, gross margins reaching eighty percent, and robust working capital float generating over three hundred million dollars in trailing free cash flow. However, substantial correlated assumptions appear where observers equate headline cash flow with GAAP owner earnings, ignoring over three hundred million dollars in annual stock-based compensation dilution. The strongest credible contrarian case notes that benchmark bond yields near five percent enforce severe multiple compression on long-duration equities, resetting sales multiples from fourteen toward seven times. Outlier projections of sustained multiple expansion were downweighted due to unaddressed dilution and competitor pricing friction, while overly punitive liquidation scenarios were discounted given Rubrik's ninety-six percent recurring subscription mix and net retention exceeding one hundred nineteen percent.

AI RESEARCHER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

GPT-6 Astra

Weight11.5/100

Exemplary primary source verification and rigorous reconciliation of convertible notes, share count dilution, and capitalized software. Its tempered return scenario grounded in high hurdle rates and realistic sales multiple compression provides exceptional causal consistency.

AI RESEARCHER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

Opus 5

Weight10.6/100

Exceptional factual rigor identifying the material-rights accounting runoff distortion and convertible debt structure. Models a highly plausible path where operational compounding from sales productivity battles ongoing multiple normalization, yielding realistic mid-single-digit annualized returns.

AI THINKER

Warren Buffett AI

The Value Seeker

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.7/100

This report correctly identifies the critical tension between optical working-capital cash generation and persistent GAAP unprofitability under high discount rates. However, its path models severe multiple contraction without crediting operational durability and gross margin defensibility.

AI RESEARCHER

Sherlock Holmes AI

The Whistleblower

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.7/100

The forensic dissection of stock-based compensation and deferred revenue float is rigorous. The report balances legitimate cyber resilience adoption against inevitable multiple compression, presenting a sound valuation path that captures initial multiple contraction followed by operational cash recovery.

AI RESEARCHER

Superintelligence AI

The Anthropologist

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.7/100

Presents strong insight regarding exocortex AI governance and immutable data pipelines. However, its long-term compounding path slightly underweights multiple compression risks stemming from five percent Treasury yields and high post-IPO equity compensation dilution.

AI THINKER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.7/100

Provides a balanced evaluation of top-line subscription expansion against multiple gravity in an elevated yield regime. Causal reasoning accurately links working capital float to self-funding capability while recognizing that multiple compression caps equity appreciation.

AI RESEARCHER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.7/100

Strong empirical grounding utilizing SEC filings and earnings releases. Accurately identifies the law of large numbers decelerating subscription growth toward twenty percent, with multiple compression offsetting free cash flow compounding across the five-year forecast.

AI RESEARCHER

Ray Dalio AI

The Strategist

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.7/100

Thorough macroeconomic framework linking sovereign debt yields to software duration discounting. Correctly isolates how upfront multi-year billing float supports balance-sheet liquidity, explaining why operational scaling balances structural valuation multiple contraction over time.

AI THINKER

Superintelligence AI

The Anthropologist

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight6.7/100

Correctly links negative book equity and heavy intellectual property reinvestment to multiple vulnerability. The analysis provides robust evaluation of competitive encroachment by platform consolidators, though its quarterly path assumes slightly excessive early multiple compression.

AI RESEARCHER

Niccolo Machiavelli AI

The Insider

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight6.7/100

Effectively captures sovereign procurement tailwinds and FedRAMP compliance moats alongside executive equity dilution frictions. Causal alignment between multiple compression and mid-single-digit annualized returns matches the broader empirical consensus.

AI RESEARCHER

Elon Musk AI

The Visionary

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight6.7/100

Articulates product-level strengths in autonomous agent rollback and metadata indexing while remaining clear-eyed regarding valuation physics. Correctly models multiple contraction from fourteen toward seven times sales under persistent macroeconomic tightening.

AI RESEARCHER

Michael Burry AI

The Vulture

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight4.8/100

Provides sharp forensic criticism of deferred billing float and negative tangible book equity. However, the modeled path projects severe terminal equity destruction that overly discounts Rubrik's eighty percent gross margin and eighty-eight percent ARR concentration in large accounts.

AI RESEARCHER

Warren Buffett AI

The Value Seeker

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight3.8/100

Sound fundamental critique of diluted owner earnings and unbacked tangible equity. However, forecasting persistent multiple compression down to five times sales ignores high customer switching costs and expanding subscription contribution margins.

AI RESEARCHER

J.P. Morgan AI

The Titan

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight2.9/100

Offers an aggressive outlier bull thesis predicting multiple expansion to fifty billion dollars market cap. This perspective understates macroeconomic discount rate gravity, dilution drag, and verified incumbent pricing friction from consolidated rivals, warranting minimal weighting.

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Research Provenance

References & Context

This Rubrik consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.

Primary analysis inputs

iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.

Independent AI Advisor panel

AI Advisors: 14
AI Researchers: 11
AI Thinkers: 3

Sources retained from AI Researcher searches

Asset-specific · Researcher web

Showing the top 15 of 47 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.

01Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
02rbrk-20260430sec.gov
03rbrk-20260731sec.gov
04rbrk-20260731sec.gov
05Hungry private equity eyeing up Commvaultblocksandfiles.com
06Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK): this analyst just raised his price target - Cantech Lettercantechletter.com
07Commvault Signs Multi-Year Strategic Partnership with Microsoft | Commvaultcommvault.com
08How Much Slowdown Is Rubrik Stock Priced For?finance.yahoo.com
09Rubrik Announces Pricing of Offering of $1.0 Billion of Convertible Senior Notesfinance.yahoo.com
10Rubrik Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
11Rubrik (RBRK) Stock Price History Charts (NYSE: RBRK)financecharts.com
12Gloomgloom.sh
13Rubrik - Rubrik and CrowdStrike Bring Agentic Automation to Identity Attack Resilienceir.rubrik.com
14Rubrik - Rubrik Announces Pricing of Offering of $1.0 Billion of Convertible Senior Notesir.rubrik.com
15Rubrik - Rubrik Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Resultsir.rubrik.com

And 32 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.

Context retained with this Consensus

The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.

Global context snapshot

2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context

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Coverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31

This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.

The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.

Top 3 market shifts from 2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Top 3 Market Shifts From File	Date	Status
DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset	2025-01-27	OPEN ENDED TREND
US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture	2025-02-01	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME
Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold	2025-09-17	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal Reserve US Bureau of Labor Statistics US Bureau of Economic Analysis US Treasury US Energy Information Administration Reuters World Associated Press World News BBC World

And more sources from the retained context package.

2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20

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Coverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20

January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.

Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.

Top 3 market shifts from 2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Top 3 Market Shifts From File	Date	Status
Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation	2026-01-30	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME
Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption	2026-02-28	ONGOING
Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions	2026-02-20	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal Reserve US Bureau of Labor Statistics European Central Bank International Monetary Fund Reuters World Associated Press World News

And more sources from the retained context package.

Fundamental context

Income statement

9 fields

depreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields

Balance sheet

12 fields

cash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields

Cash flow

4 fields

capitalExpenditures · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · totalCashFromOperatingActivities

annual: 2021-01-31–2026-01-31, 6 periods; quarterly: 2023-10-31–2026-07-31, 12 periods

Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).

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