AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Rubrik (RBRK) Stock Forecast and AI Rating
Forecast targets and rating
Final recommendation
NEUTRAL
Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.
1-Year
PARTIAL SELL$98
-8.5%5-Year
NEUTRAL$129
+20.9%Latest flagship insight
Enterprise Cyber Resilience Cash Compounding Collides With Hawkish Valuation Gravity
High consensus confirms Rubrik's operational excellence in zero-trust data resilience, driving rapid subscription expansion and positive free cash flow float. However, elevated sovereign bond yields and aggressive stock-based compensation dilution enforce substantial multiple compression, tempering long-term per-share equity appreciation.
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Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Michael Burry (Vulture), Universal Investor (Polymath), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Elon Musk (Visionary), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Machiavelli (Insider), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.
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ChatGPTExecutive Summary
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If you invested $10,000 in Rubrik at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $12,094 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.
20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView tableClose table
Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.
Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Target (USD) | Quarter return | Total return | Forecast rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 100.75 | -5.59% | -5.59% | Restrictive monetary policy and five percent benchmark yields compress software multiples. Despite solid quarterly subscription billings, elevated starting sales valuations prompt institutional de-risking and profit-taking across high-beta technology portfolios. |
| Q1 2027 | 99.43 | -1.31% | -6.82% | Fiscal year-end reporting highlights strong subscription expansion, but persistent GAAP operating deficits and material-rights accounting runoff dampen sentiment, keeping valuation multiples capped under higher-for-longer interest rate conditions. |
| Q2 2027 | 98.71 | -0.72% | -7.49% | Enterprise software budget scrutiny and competitor pricing battles elongate enterprise procurement cycles. Valuation multiples absorb lingering macro pressure, though resilient gross margins above eighty percent prevent sharp fundamental deterioration. |
| Q3 2027 | 97.62 | -1.11% | -8.52% | Heightened ransomware activity and federal zero-trust compliance deadlines drive steady enterprise additions. Expanding cloud data security posture management contracts stabilize billings, establishing a cyclical valuation floor across enterprise accounts. |
| Q4 2027 | 99.83 | +2.26% | -6.45% | Seasonal enterprise budget flushes and accelerating Microsoft Azure co-selling partnerships deliver solid multi-year subscription bookings. Free cash flow generation cushions the equity against macro volatility, supporting modest price stabilization. |
| Q1 2028 | 102.18 | +2.36% | -4.25% | Fiscal 2028 full-year results confirm operating leverage improvements, with subscription contribution margins expanding toward eighteen percent. Upfront deferred billings bolster cash reserves, encouraging institutional accumulation despite sticky discount rates. |
| Q2 2028 | 103.01 | +0.81% | -3.47% | Aggressive pricing friction from consolidated legacy backup rivals prompts selective discounting in commercial renewals. Revenue growth continues, but slightly trimmed incremental contribution margins temper upward share-price momentum. |
| Q3 2028 | 105.33 | +2.26% | -1.29% | Commercial monetization of agentic artificial intelligence security accelerates as enterprises adopt automated rollback protections. High-margin subscription module upsells lift net retention and drive a constructive fundamental quarterly performance. |
| Q4 2028 | 108.68 | +3.17% | +1.84% | Large enterprise contract expansions and FedRAMP sovereign demand reinforce double-digit recurring revenue gains. Robust cash collections expand trailing cash flow, though employee equity issuance continues to restrain per-share appreciation. |
| Q1 2029 | 111.24 | +2.36% | +4.24% | Fiscal 2029 results demonstrate narrowing GAAP operating losses as post-listing administrative expenses normalize. Strong annual cash generation crossing five hundred million dollars confirms the viability of Rubrik's self-funding model. |
| Q2 2029 | 112.35 | +1.00% | +5.28% | Top-line revenue growth naturally moderates toward mid-twenties percentages as installed enterprise base expands. Multiples drift lower toward historical software norms, balancing fundamental cash-flow expansion with routine valuation multiple digestion. |
| Q3 2029 | 114.72 | +2.12% | +7.51% | Deepening international expansion across European and Asian financial corridors offsets domestic market maturity. High switching costs and ninety-five percent logo retention ensure predictable subscription compounding across multi-cloud environments. |
| Q4 2029 | 118.01 | +2.87% | +10.59% | Year-end enterprise security renewals demonstrate strong customer lifetime values. Broad market recognition of Rubrik's emergent tollbooth on enterprise agentic data workflows supports modest quarterly valuation appreciation. |
| Q1 2030 | 120.60 | +2.19% | +13.02% | Fiscal 2030 financial results approach maiden GAAP operating breakeven, sparking positive revisions from institutional quality screens. Cash conversion remains elite, providing balance-sheet insulation against broader macroeconomic tightening. |
| Q2 2030 | 120.87 | +0.22% | +13.27% | Management successfully addresses the June 2030 convertible senior notes maturity utilizing accumulated organic cash reserves. Resolving refinancing overhang reassures markets, though liquidity deployment temporarily restrains equity repurchase programs. |
| Q3 2030 | 123.79 | +2.42% | +16.01% | Removal of debt overhang allows market focus to return to core unit economics. Expanding runtime artificial intelligence governance modules support healthy contract values, driving low-volatility per-share fundamental progress. |
| Q4 2030 | 126.07 | +1.84% | +18.14% | Defensive zero-trust architecture shields Rubrik from cyclical corporate spending cutbacks. Maturing sales productivity delivers consistent high-margin subscription cash flows, supporting steady price performance into calendar year-end. |
| Q1 2031 | 127.92 | +1.47% | +19.88% | Fiscal 2031 annual disclosures confirm full-year GAAP net profitability alongside substantial free cash flow. The board authorizes regular share repurchases, neutralizing ongoing employee dilution and improving per-share intrinsic compounding. |
| Q2 2031 | 128.23 | +0.24% | +20.17% | Enterprise data protection market approaches broad modernization saturation, moderating top-line revenue expansion into the upper teens. The stock behaves like an established software utility, with cash returns anchoring valuation. |
| Q3 2031 | 129.06 | +0.64% | +20.94% | The five-year forecast closes with Rubrik established as an indispensable enterprise resilience fixture. Normalized valuation multiples and durable twenty-percent-plus free cash margins anchor terminal equity value through the cycle. |
Rubrik presents an exceptional economic franchise whose equity returns will be largely governed by valuation arithmetic rather than operational failure. The business operates as an indispensable enterprise resilience utility, commanding eighty percent gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry and net revenue retentionnet revenue retentionRecurring revenue from an existing customer cohort after expansion, contraction, and churn, divided by that cohort's starting recurring revenue.View full glossary entry exceeding one hundred nineteen percent. Upfront multi-year subscription billing unlocks a negative working capitalworking capitalShort-term operating capital measured as current assets minus current liabilities.View full glossary entry floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry, generating over three hundred million dollars in trailing free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry and eliminating sovereign debtsovereign debtDebt issued or guaranteed by a national government.View full glossary entry reliance. However, at fourteen times trailing sales and a thin headline cash yield, starting valuation already prices in immaculate multi-year execution against five percent Treasury yields. As top-line expansion decelerates toward twenty percent, structural sales multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry toward eight times will absorb the majority of underlying revenue growth.
Key insights
- Persistent stock-based compensation exceeding three hundred million dollars annually dilutes share count by three to four percent, divorcing operational growth from per-share intrinsic valueintrinsic valueThe estimated true worth of a business or asset based on fundamentals instead of short-term market mood.View full glossary entry.
- Upfront subscription floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry decouples operating liquidity from negative GAAP net margins, insulating the enterprise from credit shocks despite negative accounting book equity.
- Autonomous agent deployment transforms immutable data recovery from peripheral backup into essential operational runtime defense, defending terminal enterprise pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry.
Rubrik makes vital cybersecurity software that helps large companies recover their data after ransomware attacks. Business is growing rapidly, gross profit marginsgross profit marginsThe share of revenue left after subtracting cost of goods sold.View full glossary entry are high at eighty percent, and customers rarely leave. However, the stock is currently expensive, trading at fourteen times sales while interest rates remain high. While the company will continue to grow its sales and cash flow over the next five years, lower market valuation multiples and employee stock dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry will likely limit overall share price gains.
Key insights
- Heavy employee stock compensation expands the total share count, reducing the portion of company growth that reaches shareholders.
- Customers pay for multi-year software subscriptions upfront, giving the business healthy cash reserves despite reported accounting losses.
- As companies use artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry agents, the need to protect and restore clean corporate data becomes non-negotiable.
Deep Dive
Consensus treats Rubrik as an unassailable cybersecurity champion, celebrating thirty-eight percent top-line expansion, rapid annual recurring revenueannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry growth, and positive headline free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry. Market participants assume secular ransomware threats and artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry tailwinds ensure perpetual pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry. Investors willingly pay fourteen times sales, presuming optical cash flow demonstrates business maturity while treating persistent GAAP operating losses, negative book equity, and five percent bond yields as irrelevant.
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Deep Dive
Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Where does the current market narrative diverge from our AI Opinions—and what could close the gap?
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Consensus treats Rubrik as an unassailable cybersecurity champion, celebrating thirty-eight percent top-line expansion, rapid annual recurring revenueannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry growth, and positive headline free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry. Market participants assume secular ransomware threats and artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry tailwinds ensure perpetual pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry. Investors willingly pay fourteen times sales, presuming optical cash flow demonstrates business maturity while treating persistent GAAP operating losses, negative book equity, and five percent bond yields as irrelevant.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd overestimates Rubrik's equity value by confusing working capitalworking capitalShort-term operating capital measured as current assets minus current liabilities.View full glossary entry floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry with genuine owner earningsowner earningsAn estimate of cash available to owners after operating costs, taxes, and the capital spending needed to maintain competitive capacity.View full glossary entry. Consensus naively capitalizes upfront deferred revenue while ignoring that more than three hundred million dollars in annual stock-based compensation subsidizes cash generation and continuously dilutes public shareholders. Furthermore, pricing an unprofitable capital structurecapital structureThe mix of debt and equity used to finance a business.View full glossary entry at fourteen times sales leaves zero margin of safetymargin of safetyThe difference between an estimated intrinsic value and the purchase price, intended to allow for uncertainty or analytical error.View full glossary entry against elevated discount rates; unavoidable multiple contraction will absorb the majority of fundamental top-line compounding.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Valuation repricing will be triggered as subscription annual recurring revenueannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry growth inevitably decelerates below thirty percent during fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings prints. As top-line deceleration reveals persistent GAAP operating deficits and ongoing three-to-four percent annual share dilution, institutional growth algorithms and sell-side analysts will be forced to compress forward sales multiples toward historical enterprise software peer averages.
Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed / Fear
- Balanced
- Volatility
- High Erratic
- Cycle position
- Overshoot
Sentiment splits between operational optimists focused on secular AI momentum and valuation realists warning of higher-for-longer multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry. The decisive tension centers on whether cash-flow generation can offset duration headwinds before growth decelerates.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The prevailing macroeconomic regimemacroeconomic regimeThe prevailing set of economic conditions including interest rates and inflation that influence asset pricing.View full glossary entry of restrictive monetary policy, with policy rates near four percent and ten-year sovereign yields hovering near five percent, acts as a severe valuation headwind. While mission-critical cybersecurity spending remains highly resilient across enterprise IT budgets, elevated discount rates severely penalize long-duration, GAAP-unprofitable equities, capping valuation multiples regardless of pristine operational execution.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The primary analytical dispute across reports centers on how quickly high benchmark bond yields will enforce sales multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry against Rubrik's robust operational compounding. Optimistic views argue that Rubrik's emerging tollbooth over enterprise AI agent data workflows and rapid gross margin expansiongross margin expansionAn increase in gross profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry will insulate shares, defending double-digit revenue multiples. Conversely, skeptical perspectives emphasize that optical cash flow is heavily distorted by upfront deferred billing floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry and massive stock compensation, warning that multiple contraction toward single digits will severely depress per-share equity returns. Tracking upcoming net new ARRannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry cadence alongside quarterly GAAP operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry will definitively resolve this debate.
Base-Case Forces
Event Risk ScoreHigh77/100Near-certain positive forces
Top Drivers / Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ransomware crisis forces cyber resilience spending | Sector And Industry | +28% | +45% | Proliferating ransomware attacks and state-sponsored cyber sabotage force corporate boards to prioritize immutable data recovery over perimeter prevention alone. Rubrik's zero-trust architecture provides verifiable recovery guarantees, transforming data resilience into an existential operational mandate. This non-discretionary spendingdiscretionary spendingConsumer expenditure on non-essential goods sensitive to economic downturns and inflation.View full glossary entry priority sustains net retention above 119% and fuels durable subscription revenue expansion across Global 2000 enterprise accounts. |
| Agentic AIagentic aiAutonomous artificial intelligence systems capable of performing complex tasks and decision-making without constant human intervention.View full glossary entry data governance platform monetization | Innovation And Product | +24% | +36% | Enterprise adoption of autonomous artificial intelligenceartificial intelligenceComputer systems designed to perform tasks that ordinarily require human perception, reasoning, learning, language, or decision-making.View full glossary entry agents creates acute unstructured data exfiltration and prompt contamination risks. Rubrik Agent Cloud and proprietary metadata telemetry provide automated runtime access controls and instantaneous operational rollback. This capability allows frictionless cross-selling of high-margin governance modules into the installed baseinstalled baseThe active set of deployed products or users already in operation with existing customers.View full glossary entry, expanding average contract values and cementing platform stickiness. |
| Subscription floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry enables structural operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry | Operational Efficiency | +22% | +42% | Multi-year upfront subscription invoicing generates substantial negative working capitalworking capitalShort-term operating capital measured as current assets minus current liabilities.View full glossary entry floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry, producing over $320 million in trailing free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry. As gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry hold near 80% and post-IPO corporate overhead normalizes, subscription contribution margins expand past 15%. This structural operating efficiency enables self-funded platform engineering, shielding liquidity while narrowing GAAP accounting deficits toward eventual breakeven. |
| Cloud hyperscaler distribution and co-sell flywheel | Competitive Positioning | +18% | +28% | Deep go-to-market alliances with Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud allow enterprise clients to draw down committed hyperscaler spending directly on Rubrik software licenses. This distribution integration shortens sales cycles, lowers marginal customer acquisition costscustomer acquisition costsThe sales and marketing cost required to acquire a new customer.View full glossary entry, and expands cloud annual recurring revenueannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry above 38%, reinforcing market share capture against legacy storage incumbents. |
Near-certain negative forces
Top Frictions / Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated discount rates compress growth multiplesgrowth multipleGrowth multiple is a valuation premium assigned to businesses expected to sustain faster expansion than peers or the broader market.View full glossary entry | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -28% | -8.0% | With benchmark sovereign ten-year yields anchored near 5.0% and central banks maintaining restrictive policy, long-duration growth assets face relentless multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry gravity. Trading at fourteen times sales with negative GAAP net income, Rubrik's starting valuation leaves no margin for error. As market hurdle rates normalize, multiple contraction from 14x toward 7x will neutralize fundamental expansion. |
| Persistent stock-based compensation dilutes owner earningsowner earningsAn estimate of cash available to owners after operating costs, taxes, and the capital spending needed to maintain competitive capacity.View full glossary entry | Capital Allocation | -20% | -26% | Rubrik's headline free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry conceals a significant economic drag: annual stock-based compensation exceeding $300 million subsidizes talent retention while expanding fully diluted share counts by 3% to 5% annually. This ongoing dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry siphons enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry from public shareholders, depressing per-share cash flow compounding and keeping GAAP operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry firmly in negative territory. |
| Consolidated rival bundling and pricing warfare | Competitive Positioning | -17% | -22% | The completed merger between Cohesity and Veritas, alongside aggressive cloud backup bundling from Commvault and native hyperscaler storage utilities, creates severe enterprise pricing friction. Consolidated rivals offer discounted multi-product suites in hybrid environments, lengthening Rubrik's sales cycles, necessitating targeted renewal discounting, and compressing long-term terminal operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry expectations. |
| Natural growth deceleration in enterprise storage | Sector And Industry | -15% | -18% | As subscription annual recurring revenueannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry crosses $1.8 billion, the law of large numberslaw of large numbersA statistical principle stating that an average tends to approach its expected value as the number of independent observations increases.View full glossary entry inevitably moderates top-line growth from 48% toward the low 20% range. Corporate IT budget scrutiny and cloud migration normalization elongate enterprise procurement reviews, forcing markets to transition Rubrik's valuation framework from speculative hypergrowth to a mature cash-flow multiple. |
What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Plausible downside scenarios
Tail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catastrophic breach of immutable recovery vaults | 18% | -52% | A sophisticated state-sponsored threat actor could discover an architectural zero-day exploit that corrupts Rubrik's proprietary Atlas file system or exfiltrates cryptographic keys during a major corporate extortion attack. Because Rubrik's premium pricing rests entirely on guaranteed recoverability, compromised immutability would ignite immediate enterprise churn, brand destruction, and catastrophic multiple collapse. |
| Hyperscaler native automated resilience bundling assault | 26% | -38% | Microsoft Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud could collaboratively develop and natively integrate zero-cost immutable snapshotting and automated data posture management directly into standard cloud storage tiers by 2028. Aggressive bundling of good-enough native tools would undercut third-party data resilience pricing, compress gross marginsgross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry toward 65%, and stall net new ARRannual recurring revenueAnnual recurring revenue (ARR) measures the normalized yearly value of contracted recurring revenue, typically excluding one-time items.View full glossary entry additions. |
Plausible upside scenarios
Tail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mandatory federal sovereign cyber resilience standard | 28% | +42% | Western defense and cybersecurity authorities could enact binding statutory regulations mandating air-gapped, zero-trust automated cyber recovery across all critical national infrastructure and defense contractors by 2028. Rubrik's elite FedRAMP High authorizations would secure exclusive sole-source public contracts, lifting subscription ARR growtharr growthThe increase in annual recurring revenue over a specified period.View full glossary entry above 40% and accelerating GAAP profitabilitygaap profitabilityGAAP profitability refers to earnings that remain positive under generally accepted accounting principles, including standard operating and noncash expense recognition.View full glossary entry two years ahead of expectations. |
| Strategic mega-cap cloud acquisition buyout | 22% | +45% | A dominant cloud hyperscaler, seeking absolute control over enterprise data resilience and AI model protection pipelines, could initiate an unsolicited cash-and-stock acquisition by 2029. Consolidating Rubrik's multi-cloud metadata telemetry would command a 40% control premium over market prices, immediately monetizing the franchise while eliminating long-term public dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry and multiple compressionmultiple compressionA decline in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry frictions. |
Company Financial Analysis
Rubrik Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.
Earnings and financials
AI Review
Rubrik's headline financials tell a story of rapid sales growth paired with ongoing accounting deficits. In the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2026, revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $427 million, while subscription annual recurring revenue reached $1.66 billion. However, the company reported a trailing twelve-month GAAP net loss of -$254 million, weighed down by substantial employee stock-based compensation awards. Despite headline net losses, cash generation is expanding rapidly. Trailing free cash flow reached $321 million, fueled by corporate customers paying for multi-year software contracts upfront. While this deferred revenue provides self-funding cash to expand operations, true per-share economic profits will remain constrained until GAAP operating results turn permanently positive.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 1.3B | USD -348.8M | USD 253.3M |
| 2025 | USD 886.5M | USD -1.2B | USD 31.3M |
| 2024 | USD 627.9M | USD -354.2M | USD -16.9M |
| 2023 | USD 599.8M | USD -277.7M | USD -15M |
| 2022 | USD 506.1M | USD -254.4M | USD -103.2M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2025 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Unavailable | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
AI Review
Gross profit margins have displayed remarkable expansion, surging from 53.3% in fiscal 2022 to 80.1% in fiscal 2026. This dramatic improvement reflects the company's completed transition away from legacy physical storage appliances toward pure, high-margin cloud software subscriptions. Pricing power remains strong as enterprises treat data security as non-negotiable. In contrast, GAAP operating margins remain negative at -26.2% for fiscal 2026, though showing substantial recovery from historical lows. Substantial sales commissions and executive stock grants continue to absorb gross profits. Long-term margin health depends on whether sales productivity can compound revenue faster than operating expenses to reach permanent GAAP profitability.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD -345.4M | -26.2% | -26.5% |
| 2025 | USD -1.1B | -127.9% | -130.3% |
| 2024 | USD -306.5M | -48.8% | -56.4% |
| 2023 | USD -261.5M | -43.6% | -46.3% |
| 2022 | USD -249.8M | -49.4% | -50.3% |
Balance sheet and leverage
AI Review
Rubrik's balance sheet provides comfortable near-term liquidity despite unusual accounting optics. The company holds $1.75 billion in liquid cash and short-term investments against $1.15 billion in zero-coupon convertible senior notes due in June 2030. This leaves the enterprise in a net cash position with no immediate debt servicing costs or covenant restrictions. However, historical accounting losses before the initial public offering have pushed stockholders' equity to -$520 million. While common in high-growth software firms due to unearned deferred revenue accounting, it highlights that shareholders have no tangible asset backing. Solvency depends entirely on maintaining strong customer renewal cash flows rather than physical collateral.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Net cash / (debt) | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 1.1B | USD 1.7B | USD 750.5M net debt | 1.69x |
| 2025 | USD 350.8M | USD 705.1M | USD 164.5M net debt | 1.13x |
| 2024 | USD 309.3M | USD 279.3M | USD 179.3M net debt | 0.84x |
| 2023 | USD 216M | USD 295.9M | USD 80.2M net debt | 1.17x |
| 2022 | USD 33.2M | USD 138.8M | USD 37.8M net cash | 0.98x |
Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
AI Review
Rubrik operates an extremely capital-light business model that minimizes physical asset spending. Capital expenditures absorbed just 2.25% of revenue in fiscal 2026, as the company delivers software via commercial cloud providers rather than constructing proprietary data centers. This structure avoids heavy physical hardware depreciation, allowing operational cash to flow straight into free cash flow. Instead of physical plant, capital reinvestment is heavily focused on software engineering and product innovation. Research and development consumed $374 million in fiscal 2026 to support automated recovery and artificial intelligence data protection. Payback on this intellectual spending will ultimately be measured by whether new software modules expand profit margins over time.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 29.6M | USD 373.7M |
| 2025 | USD 16.9M | USD 531.6M |
| 2024 | USD 12.3M | USD 189.8M |
| 2023 | USD 34.3M | USD 158.8M |
| 2022 | USD 20.4M | USD 159.6M |
Quarterly Forecast Scenarios
Rubrik Averaged Consensus Scenarios
One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in USD; benchmark values are shown in USD.
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| Quarter | Bear case (USD) | Base case (USD) | Bull case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98.17 | $101.30 | $109.91 | $750.26 | |
| $93.26 | $99.50 | $114.31 | $736.44 | |
| $84.87 | $99.00 | $116.59 | $743.40 | |
| $79.78 | $98.29 | $122.42 | $755.15 | |
| $81.37 | $100.20 | $129.77 | $776.22 | |
| $84.63 | $102.40 | $136.26 | $787.13 | |
| $85.81 | $103.51 | $141.71 | $802.83 | |
| $83.23 | $105.76 | $150.21 | $812.05 | |
| $83.22 | $109.00 | $157.72 | $839.18 | |
| $80.72 | $111.51 | $164.03 | $850.50 | |
| $83.15 | $113.25 | $172.23 | $872.39 | |
| $81.48 | $115.50 | $179.12 | $885.51 | |
| $79.04 | $118.83 | $188.08 | $909.56 | |
| $77.46 | $121.59 | $195.60 | $916.13 | |
| $79.87 | $122.54 | $205.38 | $936.51 | |
| $78.14 | $125.47 | $213.59 | $947.34 | |
| $76.58 | $127.84 | $220.00 | $969.59 | |
| $75.05 | $129.93 | $226.60 | $979.99 | |
| $76.55 | $130.50 | $231.13 | $999.60 | |
| $75.02 | $131.57 | $235.76 | $1,012 |
Behind the synthesis
How each opinion shapes the consensus
The independently supported consensus reveals a high-performing enterprise cyber resilience platform whose fundamental expansion is heavily counteracted by starting valuation friction. Across rigorous reports, independent verification confirms subscription revenue compounding above thirty percent, gross margins reaching eighty percent, and robust working capital float generating over three hundred million dollars in trailing free cash flow. However, substantial correlated assumptions appear where observers equate headline cash flow with GAAP owner earnings, ignoring over three hundred million dollars in annual stock-based compensation dilution. The strongest credible contrarian case notes that benchmark bond yields near five percent enforce severe multiple compression on long-duration equities, resetting sales multiples from fourteen toward seven times. Outlier projections of sustained multiple expansion were downweighted due to unaddressed dilution and competitor pricing friction, while overly punitive liquidation scenarios were discounted given Rubrik's ninety-six percent recurring subscription mix and net retention exceeding one hundred nineteen percent.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
GPT-6 AstraExemplary primary source verification and rigorous reconciliation of convertible notes, share count dilution, and capitalized software. Its tempered return scenario grounded in high hurdle rates and realistic sales multiple compression provides exceptional causal consistency.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Opus 5Exceptional factual rigor identifying the material-rights accounting runoff distortion and convertible debt structure. Models a highly plausible path where operational compounding from sales productivity battles ongoing multiple normalization, yielding realistic mid-single-digit annualized returns.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashThis report correctly identifies the critical tension between optical working-capital cash generation and persistent GAAP unprofitability under high discount rates. However, its path models severe multiple contraction without crediting operational durability and gross margin defensibility.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Gemini 3.8 FlashThe forensic dissection of stock-based compensation and deferred revenue float is rigorous. The report balances legitimate cyber resilience adoption against inevitable multiple compression, presenting a sound valuation path that captures initial multiple contraction followed by operational cash recovery.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashPresents strong insight regarding exocortex AI governance and immutable data pipelines. However, its long-term compounding path slightly underweights multiple compression risks stemming from five percent Treasury yields and high post-IPO equity compensation dilution.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides a balanced evaluation of top-line subscription expansion against multiple gravity in an elevated yield regime. Causal reasoning accurately links working capital float to self-funding capability while recognizing that multiple compression caps equity appreciation.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Gemini 3.8 FlashStrong empirical grounding utilizing SEC filings and earnings releases. Accurately identifies the law of large numbers decelerating subscription growth toward twenty percent, with multiple compression offsetting free cash flow compounding across the five-year forecast.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Gemini 3.8 FlashThorough macroeconomic framework linking sovereign debt yields to software duration discounting. Correctly isolates how upfront multi-year billing float supports balance-sheet liquidity, explaining why operational scaling balances structural valuation multiple contraction over time.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Gemini 3.8 FlashCorrectly links negative book equity and heavy intellectual property reinvestment to multiple vulnerability. The analysis provides robust evaluation of competitive encroachment by platform consolidators, though its quarterly path assumes slightly excessive early multiple compression.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Gemini 3.8 FlashEffectively captures sovereign procurement tailwinds and FedRAMP compliance moats alongside executive equity dilution frictions. Causal alignment between multiple compression and mid-single-digit annualized returns matches the broader empirical consensus.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Gemini 3.8 FlashArticulates product-level strengths in autonomous agent rollback and metadata indexing while remaining clear-eyed regarding valuation physics. Correctly models multiple contraction from fourteen toward seven times sales under persistent macroeconomic tightening.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Gemini 3.8 FlashProvides sharp forensic criticism of deferred billing float and negative tangible book equity. However, the modeled path projects severe terminal equity destruction that overly discounts Rubrik's eighty percent gross margin and eighty-eight percent ARR concentration in large accounts.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Gemini 3.8 FlashSound fundamental critique of diluted owner earnings and unbacked tangible equity. However, forecasting persistent multiple compression down to five times sales ignores high customer switching costs and expanding subscription contribution margins.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Gemini 3.8 FlashOffers an aggressive outlier bull thesis predicting multiple expansion to fifty billion dollars market cap. This perspective understates macroeconomic discount rate gravity, dilution drag, and verified incumbent pricing friction from consolidated rivals, warranting minimal weighting.
Research Provenance
References & Context
This Rubrik consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher webShowing the top 15 of 47 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.
- 01Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
- 02rbrk-20260430sec.gov
- 03rbrk-20260731sec.gov
- 04rbrk-20260731sec.gov
- 05Hungry private equity eyeing up Commvaultblocksandfiles.com
- 06Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK): this analyst just raised his price target - Cantech Lettercantechletter.com
- 07Commvault Signs Multi-Year Strategic Partnership with Microsoft | Commvaultcommvault.com
- 08How Much Slowdown Is Rubrik Stock Priced For?finance.yahoo.com
- 09Rubrik Announces Pricing of Offering of $1.0 Billion of Convertible Senior Notesfinance.yahoo.com
- 10Rubrik Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsfinance.yahoo.com
- 11Rubrik (RBRK) Stock Price History Charts (NYSE: RBRK)financecharts.com
- 12Gloomgloom.sh
- 13Rubrik - Rubrik and CrowdStrike Bring Agentic Automation to Identity Attack Resilienceir.rubrik.com
- 14Rubrik - Rubrik Announces Pricing of Offering of $1.0 Billion of Convertible Senior Notesir.rubrik.com
- 15Rubrik - Rubrik Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Resultsir.rubrik.com
And 32 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Top 3 Market Shifts From File | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental context
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
4 fieldscapitalExpenditures · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · totalCashFromOperatingActivities
annual: 2021-01-31–2026-01-31, 6 periods; quarterly: 2023-10-31–2026-07-31, 12 periods
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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