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BBAI.NYSE
BigBear.ai
Information Technology · Internet Services & Infrastructure

Artificial intelligence and machine learning company providing decision intelligence solutions for defense and commercial markets.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for BigBear.ai.

Historical AI Forecasts

BigBearai Holdings Inc (BBAI.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 28 November 2025Deep analysis 28 November 2025

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

AI Advisor 1 AI

Independent Investor FrameworkAI Thinker

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+149.1%

BBAI.NYSE does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The most reasonable thesis projects BigBear.ai as a steady, niche player in the Federal AI ecosystem. While not achieving the hyper-scale of larger peers, BBAI solidifies its role in specific verticals like logistics, cyber-physical convergence, and vision AI for border security. Revenue growth stabilizes at a respectable 15-18% CAGR, driven by the successful execution of IDIQ contracts and moderate commercial expansion. The company achieves breakeven and modest profitability, supporting a valuation based on reasonable sales multiples rather than speculative hype. The stock price reflects a gradual appreciation aligned with earnings growth, with volatility dampening as the institutional shareholder base matures and the strengthens without excessive .

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-0.793.527.8212.1316.44Apr 2021Sep 2023Jan 2026Jun 2028Nov 2030Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-04-059.83
Observed price2021-04-099.62
Observed price2021-05-039.73
Observed price2021-05-199.62
Observed price2021-05-319.68
Observed price2021-06-249.84
Observed price2021-06-289.85
Observed price2021-07-229.82
Observed price2021-08-039.75
Observed price2021-08-119.84
Observed price2021-08-239.81
Observed price2021-09-169.89
Observed price2021-09-249.87
Observed price2021-09-289.85
Observed price2021-10-229.91
Observed price2021-11-119.98
Observed price2021-12-019.98
Observed price2021-12-098.08
Observed price2021-12-178.72
Observed price2022-01-065.28
Observed price2022-01-144.75
Observed price2022-01-225.37
Observed price2022-02-114.61
Observed price2022-03-037.46
Observed price2022-03-079.61
Observed price2022-03-236.29
Observed price2022-04-048.74
Observed price2022-04-1612.13
Observed price2022-05-0210.67
Observed price2022-05-265.78
Observed price2022-06-035.37
Observed price2022-06-233.87
Observed price2022-06-273.75
Observed price2022-07-213.43
Observed price2022-07-252.74
Observed price2022-08-181.69
Observed price2022-08-301.58
Observed price2022-09-071.26
Observed price2022-09-271.23
Observed price2022-10-051.80
Observed price2022-10-291.33
Observed price2022-11-101.03
Observed price2022-11-141.09
Observed price2022-12-080.93
Observed price2022-12-120.90
Observed price2022-12-280.65
Observed price2023-01-090.76
Observed price2023-02-023.60
Observed price2023-02-066.11
Observed price2023-03-022.84
Observed price2023-03-063.18
Observed price2023-03-181.68
Observed price2023-04-072.58
Observed price2023-04-153.33
Observed price2023-05-092.97
Observed price2023-05-212.34
Observed price2023-06-022.02
Observed price2023-06-182.55
Observed price2023-06-302.35
Observed price2023-07-201.89
Observed price2023-08-012.12
Observed price2023-08-171.42
Observed price2023-08-251.31
Observed price2023-09-021.72
Observed price2023-09-181.63
Observed price2023-09-261.28
Observed price2023-11-011.19
Observed price2023-11-091.54
Observed price2023-11-251.87
Observed price2023-12-071.64
Observed price2023-12-191.78
Observed price2023-12-272.11
Observed price2024-01-082.19
Observed price2024-02-011.65
Observed price2024-02-051.58
Observed price2024-02-293.36
Observed price2024-03-044.33
Observed price2024-03-282.05
Observed price2024-04-011.96
Observed price2024-04-211.52
Observed price2024-04-291.75
Observed price2024-05-111.42
Observed price2024-05-271.59
Observed price2024-06-201.20
Observed price2024-06-241.27
Observed price2024-07-141.58
Observed price2024-07-261.52
Observed price2024-08-071.19
Observed price2024-08-191.37
Observed price2024-08-231.72
Observed price2024-09-201.58
Observed price2024-10-021.38
Observed price2024-10-141.91
Observed price2024-11-031.60
Observed price2024-11-151.70
Observed price2024-12-052.86
Observed price2024-12-132.52
Observed price2024-12-294.61
Observed price2025-01-143.18
Observed price2025-01-224.44
Observed price2025-02-034.23
Observed price2025-02-158.87
Observed price2025-03-034.76
Observed price2025-03-273.06
Observed price2025-04-202.42
Observed price2025-04-242.91
Observed price2025-05-063.09
Observed price2025-05-143.85
Observed price2025-05-264.28
Observed price2025-06-113.73
Observed price2025-06-234.18
Observed price2025-07-178.22
Observed price2025-07-217.40
Observed price2025-08-145.84
Observed price2025-08-185.85
Observed price2025-09-114.87
Observed price2025-09-155.09
Observed price2025-09-237.99
Observed price2025-10-138.81
Observed price2025-11-065.66
Observed price2025-11-225.69
Observed price2025-12-047.02
Observed price2025-12-086.56
Observed price2026-01-015.62
Observed price2026-01-096.20
Observed price2026-01-295.52
Observed price2026-02-024.78
Observed price2026-02-223.76
Observed price2026-03-064.25
Observed price2026-03-263.32
Observed price2026-03-303.04
Observed price2026-04-193.84
Observed price2026-04-273.73
Observed price2026-05-094.23
Observed price2026-06-025.11
Observed price2026-06-183.92
Observed price2026-06-223.83
Observed price2026-07-162.92
Observed price2026-07-282.76
Observed price2026-08-133.34
Observed price2026-08-213.22
Observed price2026-09-102.82
Observed price2026-09-142.88
Observed price2026-09-162.73
Observed price2026-09-182.80
Published advisor forecast2025-11-266.02
Published advisor forecast2026-05-276.85
Published advisor forecast2026-11-277.60
Published advisor forecast2027-05-278.45
Published advisor forecast2027-11-279.25
Published advisor forecast2028-05-2710.10
Published advisor forecast2028-11-2711.00
Published advisor forecast2029-05-2712.16
Published advisor forecast2029-11-2713.20
Published advisor forecast2030-05-2714.10
Published advisor forecast2030-11-2715.00

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

In the bull case, BigBear.ai successfully leverages its acquisition of Pangiam to become the dominant Vision AI provider for both US Federal Defense and global commercial aviation security. The company achieves a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of revenue exceeding 25% as government modernization budgets shift heavily toward AI-driven decision dominance. expand significantly towards 50% as software revenues outpace lower-margin service contracts. Institutional adoption drives valuation multiples closer to pure-play peers like Palantir, anticipating a potential inclusion in broader indices. The company successfully transitions from a "show-me" story to a profitable , initiating a by 2028 due to robust generation.

Bear case

The bear case posits that BigBear.ai fails to differentiate its offering in an increasingly crowded defense-tech landscape dominated by well-capitalized primes and aggressive competitors like Palantir and C3.ai. Despite the Pangiam integration, commercial revenue remains lumpy and cyclical, failing to offset the unpredictability of government contracting cycles. If the company fails to achieve consistent by 2027, becomes necessary to fund operations, crushing equity value. A potential contraction in US defense spending or a shift in procurement priorities away from experimental AI toward traditional hardware would severely impact the , causing the stock to re-rate permanently lower to near cash value.

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