Workday, Inc. (WDAY.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+53.7%
WDAY.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is duration versus displacement. Workday's near-term contracted revenue is accelerating while total contracted duration decelerates — customers are committing for shorter periods because they cannot yet price what agentic AIagentic aiAutonomous artificial intelligence systems capable of performing complex tasks and decision-making without constant human intervention.View full glossary entry does to headcount-linked software. That is a visibility problem, not a churn problem, and 97% gross revenue retention supports the distinction. Base case: subscription growth fades from 13% toward 8-9% by fiscal 2031, non-GAAP operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry climbs past 35%, free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry grows from $3.18B toward roughly $5B, and an aggressive but decaying buyback shrinks the share count. Returns come from per-share compounding, not multiple expansionmultiple expansionAn increase in valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings or enterprise-value-to-sales.View full glossary entry.
- Guided fiscal 2027 free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. of $3.18B against $48.5B equity value equals roughly 15x, a 6.6% yield.
- Holding 15x on ~$5B free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. with ~215M shares implies a share price near $290.
- Cross-check: $15B revenue at 35% non-GAAP margin supports that valuation without heroic terminal-growth assumptions.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 270 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-01 | 250 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-09 | 256 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-29 | 287 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-14 | 296 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-22 | 277 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-04 | 268 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-08 | 282 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-24 | 278 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-05 | 252 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 256 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 236 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-10 | 240 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-22 | 213 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-02 | 243 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-30 | 243 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-15 | 225 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 225 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-13 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-29 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-22 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-30 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-08 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-24 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-10 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-26 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-04 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-12 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-09 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-13 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-21 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-11 | 172 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-27 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-28 | 178 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-09 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-21 | 185 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-09 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 191 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-21 | 187 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-02 | 203 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-14 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-04 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 180 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-28 | 214 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-09 | 206 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-17 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-29 | 227 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-07 | 220 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-23 | 223 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-31 | 239 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-20 | 226 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-01 | 245 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-09 | 251 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-21 | 230 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 207 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-27 | 206 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-12 | 231 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-16 | 232 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 272 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-14 | 276 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-30 | 273 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-03 | 268 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-23 | 291 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-31 | 291 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 303 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-24 | 303 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-07 | 266 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-23 | 277 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-04 | 269 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 269 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-28 | 248 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-10 | 246 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-22 | 260 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-26 | 217 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 209 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-19 | 211 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-05 | 226 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-17 | 233 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 219 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-06 | 209 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-26 | 263 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-30 | 262 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-19 | 247 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-23 | 245 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-05 | 238 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-02 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 252 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-14 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-30 | 252 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 260 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-16 | 277 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-28 | 266 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 246 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 253 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 274 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-26 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 254 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-18 | 252 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-30 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 215 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-15 | 233 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-27 | 239 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-17 | 273 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-21 | 273 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-29 | 242 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-14 | 248 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-26 | 235 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-08 | 240 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-16 | 227 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-09 | 217 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-17 | 228 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-25 | 223 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-02 | 233 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-18 | 234 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-26 | 244 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-16 | 235 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-20 | 243 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 229 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-21 | 219 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-29 | 214 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-11 | 224 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-27 | 220 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 208 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-24 | 189 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 167 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 156 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-25 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-09 | 148 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-02 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-10 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-26 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-08 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-24 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-09 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-21 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-19 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-23 | 128 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-27 | 148 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-16 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-28 | 205 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-09 | 186 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-17 | 199 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 188 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 189 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 194 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 186 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 181 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 195 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 203 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 209 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 213 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 222 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 228 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 233 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 240 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 247 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 252 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 257 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 262 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 270 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 275 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 281 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 286 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 292 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 298 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when AI stops being an attach rate and starts being a meter. If consumption-based agent pricing lands during fiscal 2029, total backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry growth reaccelerates above 12%, which restores forward visibility, which restores the multiple — a reflexive loop running the opposite direction from February 2026. Combine that with the guided 200bps annual margin expansionmargin expansionAn increase in profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry and free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. approaches $6B. At 20x, the shares would clear $450, roughly doubling from here.
Bear case
The bear case needs two failures at once: retention cracking and margin stalling. If agentic platforms absorb recruiting and workforce-planning workflows, gross revenue retention slips from 97% toward 94%, growth halves to 6-7%, and the buyback — already running at 1.8x free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. off a cash balance down 32% — must stop. Losing the per-share tailwind exactly when growth disappoints compresses the multiple toward 10x . That path implies shares near $120, back to the February 2026 trough.
Current crowd narrative
The dominant belief is that Workday has already survived its AI reckoning. After February 2026's 10% collapse to roughly $117 and a ~63% retrace to $194, the crowd treats the seat-based-licensing scare as priced. Yet analyst targets span $92 to $275, and Goldman's post-print $164 sits below spot [16][19][21]. That dispersion is the tell: nobody agrees on terminal growth.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, but the reason is unglamorous. Consensus debates AI disruption while the decisive evidence is arithmetic: at roughly 15x guided fiscal 2027 free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. of $3.18B, the market already embeds growth fading to high single digits [4]. The blind spot is the two-speed backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility., 14.2% near-term against 8.0% total [2] — genuinely bearish on duration, but it reveals contract-length compression, not customer defection, with 97% retention intact [5]. Underpricing is real, modest, and slow-burning.
Convergence catalyst
Watch total subscription backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. in the late-November fiscal Q3 print and again in February 2027. If total growth stabilises near 8% rather than sliding toward 5%, the duration-compression reading displaces the churn narrative. The first repricing sign is a guidance day that does not gap down.
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