TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkPrice-adjusted rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+72.8%
TMDX.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is simple: TransMedics compounds revenue above twenty percent while the economics of each incremental dollar deteriorate. Growth increasingly comes from flying organs rather than selling perfusion disposables - service revenue reached 41% of Q2 2026 sales - and that mix is asset-heavy, lower-margin and cash-hungry. The base case assumes 2026 is genuinely an investment trough rather than a structural ceiling: adjusted operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry recovers from the guided 12.5%-14% toward the mid-twenties by 2030 as an already-built fleet amortizes across far more missions. Shareholders are paid by earnings compounding, not by re-rating.
- Revenue near $1.6B by 2031 at roughly 24% operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. implies about $290M of net income.
- That supports approximately $7 of EPS; a 21x multiple anchors the path-end price near $147.
- Cross-check: implied $6B enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry equals 3.7x sales, below today's 5.3x price-to-sales.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 32.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-20 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-14 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-18 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-07 | 31.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-23 | 22.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-09 | 22.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-17 | 20.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-21 | 21.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 17.19 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-14 | 16.51 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-03 | 14.52 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 12.58 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-27 | 18.04 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-15 | 17.76 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-23 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-16 | 23.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-28 | 21.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-06 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-18 | 27.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-30 | 29.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-11 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-13 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 35.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-25 | 34.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-06 | 47.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-18 | 46.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-07 | 54.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 55.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-27 | 40.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-09 | 40.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-25 | 47.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-02 | 46.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-14 | 57.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 57.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-04 | 62.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-01 | 59.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 54.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-09 | 53.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-25 | 67.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-10 | 63.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-14 | 67.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-06 | 80.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-10 | 71.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-26 | 75.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-11 | 71.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-15 | 67.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-23 | 86.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-09 | 75.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-25 | 71.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-02 | 74.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-14 | 81.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 80.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-16 | 93.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 93.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-09 | 64.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-25 | 62.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 67.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-06 | 65.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-26 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-30 | 54.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-20 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-28 | 37.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 59.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-21 | 67.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-07 | 75.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 71.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 80.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-04 | 75.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-20 | 84.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-13 | 85.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-17 | 89.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 87.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-25 | 79.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-24 | 71.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-05 | 85.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-21 | 85.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-29 | 97.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-07 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-19 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-04 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-16 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-06 | 151 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-10 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-30 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-03 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-27 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-31 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-08 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-28 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-18 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-30 | 81.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-11 | 89.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-23 | 76.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-09 | 69.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-21 | 62.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-06 | 75.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-18 | 57.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-26 | 61.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-07 | 72.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-19 | 79.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 67.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 70.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 67.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-04 | 67.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-24 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-02 | 90.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-14 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-22 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-11 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-15 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-21 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-06 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-14 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-07 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-11 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-19 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-09 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-29 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-14 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-26 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-30 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-16 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-13 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-17 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-21 | 134 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-14 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-02 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-10 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 94.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-15 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-23 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-13 | 64.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 66.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-25 | 70.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-18 | 78.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 66.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 70.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-16 | 76.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-28 | 76.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-13 | 89.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-21 | 94.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-02 | 84.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 88.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 83.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 85.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 86.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 81.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 86.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 91.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 87.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 94.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 100 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 95.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 102 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 108 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 113 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 118 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 113 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 126 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 131 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 127 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 134 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 139 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 143 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 147 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The decisive condition is the margin trough proving arithmetic rather than structural. If internal air coverage passes 90% while fleet depreciation spreads across a doubled mission count, incremental service margin turns sharply positive; that cash then funds OCS Kidney without dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry, and a second organ franchise resets the addressable marketaddressable marketAddressable market is the portion of the broader market that a business can realistically target with its offering, geography, and distribution.View full glossary entry above 21,000 annual US cases. European tenders add a non-US vector. Earnings compound above thirty percent annually and the multiple expands instead of compressing.
Bear case
The trap springs if in-situ NRP scales faster than kidney arrives. NRP needs no TransMedics disposable and no TransMedics flight, so each converted centre removes both revenue legs at once. Add HRSA enforcement slowing DCD throughput and a 2028 convertible settled with equity below its conversion price, and a fixed-cost aviation base meets decelerating volume. Operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry inverts, free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry turns negative, and the multiple halves.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd has settled on one sentence: TransMedics broke its own story. After a 44% drawdown from $156, an miss of -51.6% in Q1 and halved adjusted net income in Q2 [8][9], sell-side framing anchors near 34x next year's estimates and treats the margin reset as management overreach. The settled assumption is that the NOP flywheel commoditized into an airline with a device attached.
Alpha-gap assessment
Mildly underpriced, but for an unglamorous reason. The crowd anchors on a 23.2x trailing multiple that is arithmetically fake: $82.8M of FY2025 net income was a deferred-tax valuation-allowance release, so genuine trailing earnings power is nearer $68M and roughly 50x. Yet the same crowd prices twenty-two owned aircraft and 86% internal mission coverage as cost inflation rather than as a chokepoint requiring years to replicate. Both errors partly cancel; the residual favours patient holders.
Convergence catalyst
The first quarter printing adjusted operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. back above 16%, most plausibly in late 2027 as PAD Aviation integration costs annualize and internal air coverage passes 90%. The observable first sign is service gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry expanding sequentially while service revenue share holds steady, proving logistics scales rather than dilutes.
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