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TXN.NASDAQ
Texas Instruments Incorporated
Information Technology · Semiconductors

Global semiconductor company designing and manufacturing analog chips and embedded processors for industrial, automotive, and personal electronics.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Texas Instruments Incorporated.

Historical AI Opinions

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 28 November 2025Deep analysis 28 November 2025

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

AI Advisor 1 AI

Independent Investor FrameworkAI Thinker

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+74.6%

Includes 1.47% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The most reasonable thesis projects Texas Instruments successfully navigating the transition from an investment-heavy cycle to a harvesting phase. While initial margin pressure persists due to depreciation from new fabs (Sherman and Lehi), the structural cost advantage of 300mm manufacturing eventually restores margins to the high-60% range. Revenue growth is fueled by in automotive (content expansion per vehicle) and industrial electronics, growing at a steady high-single-digit rate. TXN maintains its disciplined , returning growing to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, resulting in consistent mid-to-high teen total shareholder returns.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.125.33177.54229.74281.95334.15Nov 2020May 2023Nov 2025May 2028Nov 2030Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2020-11-25159
Observed price2020-12-06165
Observed price2020-12-27161
Observed price2021-01-23172
Observed price2021-01-28166
Observed price2021-02-14179
Observed price2021-03-02166
Observed price2021-03-28190
Observed price2021-04-08195
Observed price2021-04-30181
Observed price2021-05-10178
Observed price2021-06-01190
Observed price2021-06-17188
Observed price2021-07-03192
Observed price2021-07-19193
Observed price2021-07-24185
Observed price2021-08-20186
Observed price2021-08-31191
Observed price2021-09-16197
Observed price2021-10-02191
Observed price2021-10-18198
Observed price2021-10-29188
Observed price2021-11-14189
Observed price2021-12-05195
Observed price2022-01-01191
Observed price2022-01-12185
Observed price2022-02-02186
Observed price2022-02-13163
Observed price2022-02-18167
Observed price2022-03-17176
Observed price2022-03-28184
Observed price2022-04-13174
Observed price2022-04-24175
Observed price2022-05-10165
Observed price2022-05-26177
Observed price2022-06-22153
Observed price2022-07-02151
Observed price2022-07-24169
Observed price2022-08-09184
Observed price2022-08-25171
Observed price2022-09-10169
Observed price2022-09-26163
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Observed price2022-10-12151
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Observed price2022-11-30180
Observed price2022-12-10177
Observed price2022-12-26165
Observed price2023-01-06170
Observed price2023-02-02181
Observed price2023-02-13177
Observed price2023-02-23170
Observed price2023-03-11173
Observed price2023-04-02183
Observed price2023-04-13179
Observed price2023-05-09163
Observed price2023-05-15166
Observed price2023-05-31174
Observed price2023-06-21169
Observed price2023-07-13183
Observed price2023-07-23184
Observed price2023-08-08167
Observed price2023-08-30168
Observed price2023-09-15164
Observed price2023-09-20162
Observed price2023-10-17153
Observed price2023-10-28143
Observed price2023-11-18154
Observed price2023-11-24154
Observed price2023-12-20169
Observed price2024-01-11165
Observed price2024-01-16171
Observed price2024-01-27167
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Observed price2024-02-28167
Observed price2024-03-10174
Observed price2024-04-22164
Observed price2024-04-27177
Observed price2024-05-03177
Observed price2024-05-24199
Observed price2024-06-09198
Observed price2024-06-25194
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Observed price2024-12-19185
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Observed price2025-03-15177
Observed price2025-03-25184
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Observed price2025-05-13188
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Observed price2025-08-01181
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Observed price2025-08-28203
Observed price2025-09-18181
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Observed price2025-10-26171
Observed price2025-11-16158
Observed price2025-11-27165
Observed price2025-12-02175
Observed price2025-12-08182
Observed price2026-01-04188
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Observed price2026-03-25190
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Observed price2026-09-21271
Published advisor forecast2025-11-26165
Published advisor forecast2026-05-27174
Published advisor forecast2026-11-27183
Published advisor forecast2027-05-27195
Published advisor forecast2027-11-27205
Published advisor forecast2028-05-27217
Published advisor forecast2028-11-27228
Published advisor forecast2029-05-27240
Published advisor forecast2029-11-27253
Published advisor forecast2030-05-27260
Published advisor forecast2030-11-27268

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

In the bull case, Texas Instruments leverages its massive 300mm fabrication capacity expansion to achieve an insurmountable cost advantage over competitors relying on older 200mm technology or foundries. The global industrial and automotive sectors enter a 'supercycle' driven by pervasive automation, EV adoption, and , absorbing TXN's new capacity faster than anticipated. Consequently, expand beyond 70% as utilization peaks, and per share surges as the intensity normalizes. TXN gains significant from fragmented competitors, particularly in the high-margin analog domain, driving the stock to premium valuations reflective of a with wide moats.

Bear case

The bear case envisions a scenario where the aggressive capacity expansion coincides with a prolonged secular slowing in the industrial sector and intensified competition from domestic Chinese semiconductor manufacturers in legacy nodes. A supply glut in analog chips leads to erosion of , compressing significantly below historical averages. The heavy depreciation burden from the new fabs weighs on for an extended period, while remains suppressed due to ongoing high . Investors de-rate the stock as the 'capital management' thesis falters, and dividend growth slows to negligible levels.

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