Historical AI Consensus

This page preserves the research and market snapshot packaged for this batch. It is not updated with later prices or revised advisor outputs.

Symbol: ROK.NYSE
Batch: 7
Published: September 20, 2026
AI Advisors: 14

Historical AI Consensus Investment Thesis

Rockwell Automation (ROK) Stock Forecast and AI Rating

Deep analysis published Sep 21 2026Original pricing snapshot Sep 18 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

12 min read

Published 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook

Forecast targets and rating

Published batch rating

NEUTRAL

Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.

2027

1-Year

SELL ALL

$390

-6.2%-5.0% incl. dividends

2031

5-Year

NEUTRAL

$471

+13.4%+20.3% incl. dividends

Published batch insight

Industrial Automation Champion Faces Severe Multiple Compression Despite Reshoring Demand

High consensus confirms operational recovery across domestic manufacturing reshoring and high-margin industrial software. However, sharp divergence surrounds valuation sustainability, as five-percent bond yields threaten severe multiple compression against thirty-nine times trailing earnings, offsetting solid per-share operating cash flow compounding.

Deep Forecast Analysis by iPulse AI Engine

This analysis preserves the original published batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency

Ray Dalio (Strategist), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Universal Investor (Polymath), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Machiavelli (Insider), Michael Burry (Vulture), Elon Musk (Visionary). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.

Computed on these frontier AI models

Gemini

Claude

ChatGPT

Full published thesis

Executive Summary

If you invested $10,000 in Rockwell Automation at the forecast anchor (2026-09-18): $12,033 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.

Rockwell Automation · Synthesized ConsensusS&P 500 benchmark

* Return is calculated incl. 1.2% net dividend yield for Rockwell Automation.

Figure: Five-year synthesized consensus value path for Rockwell Automation compared with S&P 500 benchmark. The path uses the synthesizer’s normalized opinion weights.

20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView table

Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in USD; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.

Anchor: 415.62 USD1-year price return: -6.17%5-year price return: +13.37%

Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.

Twenty quarterly synthesized price forecasts in USD, with returns and rationale
Quarter	Target (USD)	Quarter return	Total return	Forecast rationale
Q4 2026	402.07	-3.26%	-3.26%	Initial fiscal 2027 guidance introduces conservative margin targets as memory inflation lands. Five percent Treasury yields and restrictive central bank policy initiate multiple compression from peak levels, modestly outweighing solid fourth-quarter operating cash flow.
Q1 2027	389.69	-3.08%	-6.24%	First-quarter corporate capital budgets reveal deferred discrete automation commitments among machinery and automotive clients. Slower book-to-bill velocity prompts sell-side multiple trims, continuing valuation de-rating toward peer medians despite resilient underlying gross profit.
Q2 2027	386.41	-0.84%	-7.03%	Tariff pass-through dynamics and high-margin recurring software revenues cushion hardware delivery softness. Second-quarter operating cash flow stabilizes, halting sharp multiple liquidation as investors recognize enduring pricing power across core installed control lines.
Q3 2027	389.97	+0.92%	-6.17%	Fiscal year-end project completions and brownfield factory modernization orders support baseline revenue. Intelligent Devices shipments in semiconductor and datacenter infrastructure help establish a firm valuation floor, driving a modest seasonal rebound.
Q4 2027	392.50	+0.65%	-5.56%	Management presents balanced fiscal 2028 guidance, highlighting steady annual recurring revenue expansion. Continued share buybacks and dividend increases provide fundamental per-share support, offsetting cautious industrial capital spending under lingering high interest rates.
Q1 2028	392.23	-0.07%	-5.63%	Core factory automation replenishment accelerates as distributor inventory levels fully normalize across North American networks. Increased shipments of programmable controllers to subsidized domestic facilities drive operational leverage and modest price appreciation.
Q2 2028	400.47	+2.10%	-3.65%	Domestic semiconductor fabrication and battery manufacturing plants advance to equipment installation phases. High-margin Intelligent Devices deliveries expand backlog conversion, generating strong free cash flow and sustaining steady upward equity momentum.
Q3 2028	405.07	+1.15%	-2.54%	Fiscal 2028 concludes with healthy cash conversion exceeding net income. Programmatic share repurchases absorb secondary market selling, allowing shares to maintain modest gains as cost containment measures protect operating margins.
Q4 2028	405.96	+0.22%	-2.32%	A seasonal mid-cycle lull in factory retooling coincides with European and Asian industrial export sluggishness. Modest profit-taking trims valuations as investors digest multi-quarter consolidation across cyclical capital goods equities.
Q1 2029	412.17	+1.53%	-0.83%	Easing monetary policy begins lowering hurdle rates for mid-tier machinery manufacturers. Enterprise software renewals and FactoryTalk analytics adoption stabilize recurring cash flows, supporting a mild quarterly recovery in market valuation.
Q2 2029	422.81	+2.58%	+1.73%	Expanding deployments of cloud MES and edge digital twin tools lift Software and Control segment margins. Positive operating leverage translates top-line gains into solid operating profit expansion, pushing quoted share prices steadily higher.
Q3 2029	426.23	+0.81%	+2.55%	Fiscal 2029 results confirm enterprise operating margins holding above 22%. Disciplined working-capital management and robust free cash flow generation enable consistent shareholder distributions, maintaining modest equity accretion through the fiscal close.
Q4 2029	434.42	+1.92%	+4.52%	Year-end discrete industrial budget disbursements drive strong deliveries of programmable logic controllers. Resilient aftermarket lifecycle service contracts counterbalance moderating new machine installations, keeping equity valuations stable to slightly higher.
Q1 2030	439.28	+1.12%	+5.69%	Commercial adoption of agentic industrial software modules within connected factory suites sparks steady brownfield upgrade cycles. High-margin software monetization offsets flat discrete hardware shipments, supporting consistent quarterly price compounding.
Q2 2030	447.76	+1.93%	+7.73%	Accelerated deployment of autonomous mobile robotics and warehouse logistics automation drives motion control sales. Substantial cash conversion allows ongoing share retirement, driving incremental per-share value accumulation across institutional portfolios.
Q3 2030	452.86	+1.14%	+8.96%	Fiscal 2030 concludes with solid operational execution across Intelligent Devices and Lifecycle Services. Consistent earnings compounding is fully digested by market participants, resulting in balanced, low-volatility trading into the fiscal year-end.
Q4 2030	456.76	+0.86%	+9.90%	Macroeconomic manufacturing indicators signal late-cycle deceleration across global production corridors. Cautious enterprise capital budgeting leads to mild multiple softening, prompting a minor, orderly pullback in quoted equity prices.
Q1 2031	463.38	+1.45%	+11.49%	Non-discretionary labor-substitution demand drives a renewed wave of factory automation retrofits across domestic food and pharmaceutical plants. Steady software annual recurring revenue cushions hardware cyclicality, allowing shares to regain positive traction.
Q2 2031	470.42	+1.52%	+13.19%	Predictive maintenance contracts and high-margin cybersecurity services expand across hybrid industrial verticals. Dependable operating cash flows and disciplined capital reinvestment underpin continued incremental share price advancement as the cycle matures.
Q3 2031	471.18	+0.16%	+13.37%	Terminal five-year valuation normalization settles trading multiples around historical mid-cycle medians near 24 to 26 times earnings. Durable per-share operating earnings growth successfully absorbs five years of multiple compression.

The consensus base-case economic argument establishes that the operational turnaround is fundamentally sound, underpinned by North American manufacturing reshoring, secular factory labor deficits, and double-digit expansion in high-margin Software and Control ARR. Post-destocking channel replenishment lifted trailing revenues to $8.97 billion and enterprise operating margins to 22.3%, aided by the Sensia joint venture dissolution. However, the valuation profile exhibits extreme duration sensitivity. Trading near 32 times forward adjusted earnings and 39 times trailing earnings against a 5.0% Treasury yield regime leaves zero margin for cyclical latency. The primary counterargument warns that customer hurdle rates have risen sharply, deferring capital-intensive greenfield commitments and creating negative operating leverage as structural restructuring benefits lap.

Key insights

Multiple compression from 32 times forward toward mid-twenties historical medians will consume roughly half of underlying operating earnings growth over five years.
Gross margin expansion toward 49% increasingly relies on software mix, making corporate returns vulnerable to component inflation and hardware price-cost lag.
High free cash flow conversion exceeding 100% of net income provides defensive capital allocation support through opportunistic share buybacks and progressive dividends.

Deep Dive

Outside market consensus treats the franchise as an unassailable, pure-play winner of American industrial re-industrialization and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Investors extrapolate recent double-digit earnings beats and post-destocking channel recovery into indefinite secular acceleration. Wall Street widely rationalizes a steep thirty-nine times trailing earnings multiple by assuming reshoring mandates, datacenter power demand, and semiconductor fab construction will completely immunize the business from restrictive interest rates and cyclical capex pauses.

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Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts

Where the published AI consensus diverged from the market narrative

Market narrative

Alpha gap

The crowd materially overestimates the durability of current valuation multiples, creating pronounced equity overpricing risk. Market participants mistake cyclical channel replenishment and non-repeating restructuring margin boosts for permanent structural acceleration. The analytical edge recognizes that over 70% of revenue remains tied to cyclical hardware and customer capital expenditure budgets that are stalling under 5% Treasury yields. Fundamental operating earnings will compound steadily, but inevitable multiple mean-reversion toward historical industrial norms will neutralize substantial equity upside.

Repricing catalyst

The primary convergence catalyst is an observable deceleration in discrete order intake and book-to-bill ratios slipping below parity during upcoming fiscal earnings releases. As corporate customers defer large greenfield factory projects under persistent borrowing costs, management guidance will reset organic growth expectations toward mid-single digits. This operational deceleration will strip the speculative software premium from the stock, forcing valuation multiples to contract toward peer medians.

Published consensus context

Macro regime alignment

The prevailing macroeconomic regime is an acute headwind for equity valuation. Benchmark interest rates near 4% and 10-year Treasury yields near 5% elevate corporate hurdle rates, forcing industrial clients to postpone debt-financed factory automation projects. Simultaneously, higher discount rates aggressively compress long-duration equity multiples, making an asset with a 3.2% free cash flow yield vulnerable against risk-free sovereign debt.

Published consensus context

Advisor disagreement

The central debate divides analysts on whether the post-destocking financial rebound represents a durable secular acceleration or a transitory cyclical upswing. Optimistic views assume that domestic reshoring mandates and expanding software annual recurring revenue permanently justify a premium valuation multiple above 28 times earnings. Conversely, skeptical perspectives emphasize that customer borrowing costs under 5% Treasury yields will freeze discretionary plant capex, causing incremental operating margins to regress from 40% toward normalized 30% levels. Resolving this tension requires monitoring quarterly book-to-bill ratios and organic order velocity through early fiscal 2027.

Published scenario analysis

Base-case forces, risks, and opportunities

Top drivers and tailwinds

Domestic manufacturing reshoring capex cycle: Geopolitical fragmentation, replacement tariffs, and federal industrial policies compel multinational corporations to construct redundant domestic production facilities. Entrenched as the dominant North American control architecture standard, the company captures outsized hardware and integration spending across semiconductor, aerospace, and critical manufacturing. This structural capital wave ensures multi-year order backlogs, driving sustained mid-single-digit organic volume expansion across the forecast horizon. Expected impact: +20%.
Software and annual recurring revenue expansion: The strategic transition toward cloud-native manufacturing execution systems, digital twins, and FactoryTalk analytics systematically converts cyclical equipment transactions into high-margin recurring subscriptions. Expanding annual recurring revenue dampens top-line cash flow cyclicality while driving Software and Control segment margins past 34%. This favorable mix shift shields gross profitability from hardware commoditization and bolsters long-term cash conversion predictability. Expected impact: +15%.
Secular factory floor skilled labor deficit: Chronic demographic aging and persistent shortages of skilled machinists and assembly technicians compel manufacturers to substitute capital for labor through automated machinery. Proprietary programmable logic controllers and intelligent devices provide non-discretionary productivity gains with rapid payback periods. This demographic pressure creates inelastic baseline replacement demand, insulating core equipment volumes even during broader macroeconomic growth pauses. Expected impact: +12%.
Asset-light free cash flow compounding: Operating a capital-light assembly model requiring capital expenditures under 3% of sales allows the company to convert over 100% of reported net income into discretionary free cash flow. Management recycles roughly $1.5 billion in annual cash generation into programmatic share buybacks and progressive dividends. This consistent capital return reduces share count and compounds per-share intrinsic earnings faster than top-line revenue. Expected impact: +10%.

Top frictions and headwinds

Valuation multiple mean reversion pressure: Trading at 39 times trailing earnings and 28 times EBITDA leaves shares acutely vulnerable to multiple compression as risk-free Treasury yields hover near 5%. The market prices flawless execution, leaving zero margin of safety for cyclical project delays. As organic growth normalizes toward historical mid-single-digit trends, valuation multiples will inexorably compress toward peer norms, creating substantial drag on equity prices. Expected impact: -21%.
Restrictive interest rates deferring capex: Elevated corporate borrowing costs and tight liquidity conditions elevate hurdle rates for industrial capital expenditure. Machine builders and tier-one manufacturers face extended financing approval cycles, prompting widespread deferrals of major greenfield plant commitments and discrete tooling overhauls. This financing friction slows short-cycle order intake and dampens book-to-bill velocity across Intelligent Devices hardware segments. Expected impact: -15%.
Automotive and clean energy tooling deceleration: Automotive original equipment manufacturers face margin pressure and shifting electrification timelines, prompting delays in battery plant construction and gigafactory tooling. Automotive represents one of the largest discrete automation end markets. Prolonged project postponements and retooling pauses impair hardware backlogs, creating persistent volume drag across core control hardware and motion systems. Expected impact: -12%.
Component inflation and tariff friction: Section 301 replacement tariffs and export restrictions on specialized microelectronics and critical minerals elevate procurement costs across hardware assemblies. While value-based pricing offers partial protection, contractual price-escalation lags prevent instantaneous pass-through to cost-sensitive industrial distributors. This timing mismatch temporarily compresses gross margins, limiting the translation of top-line revenue into operating income. Expected impact: -9%.

Tail risks

Synchronized global industrial capex recession: A persistent stagflationary shock driven by elevated energy prices and renewed monetary tightening could force industrial manufacturers into a synchronized capital expenditure freeze. Factory utilization would drop sharply, prompting heavy distributor destocking that cuts organic revenue by double digits. Severe negative operating leverage would compress operating margins toward 14%, triggering aggressive equity liquidation toward trough historical valuation multiples. Probability: +31%. Expected impact: -34%.
Operational technology architecture cyber exploit: A sophisticated nation-state zero-day exploit compromising core programmable logic controller firmware across critical industrial infrastructure could disrupt automated manufacturing facilities. The resulting regulatory scrutiny, mandatory hardware recalls, and litigation liabilities would inflict severe brand impairment. Industrial customers would accelerate migration toward open-architecture or dual-vendor control platforms, permanently eroding proprietary switching moats and compressing software gross margins. Probability: +19%. Expected impact: -28%.

Tail opportunities

Autonomous factory physical AI standard adoption: A rapid commercial breakthrough in physical AI and agentic robotics could establish the proprietary FactoryTalk platform as the standardized runtime architecture for autonomous lights-out manufacturing. If major automotive and aerospace conglomerates mandate this control interface across automated fleets, recurring high-margin software revenue would accelerate beyond 25% annually. Operating margins would expand toward 26%, sparking significant valuation multiple expansion. Probability: +28%. Expected impact: +30%.
Federal industrial automation tax super-deduction: Congress could pass sweeping bipartisan industrial policy granting permanent 100% bonus depreciation and dedicated automation tax credits to accelerate domestic manufacturing self-reliance. This legislative intervention would sharply compress payback periods on automated production lines, unlocking billions in frozen corporate capex. The company would capture disproportionate discrete orders, accelerating organic revenue growth into double digits and lifting consensus earnings. Probability: +27%. Expected impact: +22%.

What to monitor

Thesis watchpoints

-- Confirmation: Quarterly organic order growth exceeding 8% with book-to-bill above 1.05 through mid-2027 confirms durable factory retooling momentum.

Key insights

Deterioration: Enterprise operating margins falling below 18% alongside book-to-bill dropping below 0.95 over two consecutive quarters indicates cyclical exhaustion.
Reassessment: Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields declining sustainably below 3.50% requires immediate recalibration of equity hurdle rates and valuation multiples.

Company Financial Analysis

Rockwell Automation Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI

Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.

Earnings and financials

AI Review

The company's latest financial results demonstrate an impressive recovery after distributor inventory destocking caused revenues to shrink nearly 9% in fiscal 2024. For the trailing twelve months ended June 2026, revenue rebounded to $8.97 billion, generating $1.20 billion in net income. Operating cash flows converted smoothly into $1.50 billion of free cash flow, reflecting disciplined working capital management. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 sales expanded 8% to $2.31 billion, supported by 10% organic volume growth. However, the headline recovery partially conceals non-operational boosts that cannot repeat. Reported growth trailed organic growth because divestitures removed revenue, while earnings benefited from dissolving the Sensia joint venture and lapping prior restructuring charges. Sustainable future earnings compounding must rely on genuine factory floor equipment orders rather than distributor restocking.

Revenue, earnings, and cash flow

The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.

Revenue, net income, and free cash flow history
Fiscal year	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	USD 8.3B	USD 869M	USD 1.4B
2024	USD 8.3B	USD 952.5M	USD 639.1M
2023	USD 9.1B	USD 1.4B	USD 1.2B
2022	USD 7.8B	USD 932.2M	USD 682M
2021	USD 7B	USD 1.4B	USD 1.1B

Valuation context: historical P/E

The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.

Historical price-to-earnings ratios
Fiscal year	P/E	Earnings basis	Currency basis	Ticker / reporting
2025	45.5x	TTM	Native	USD / USD
2024	32.0x	TTM	Native	USD / USD
2023	25.8x	TTM	Native	USD / USD
2022	26.7x	Annual	Native	USD / USD
2021	25.4x	Annual	Native	USD / USD

P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.

Profitability and margins

AI Review

Profitability expanded sharply through fiscal 2026 as factory capacity utilization normalized and cost-reduction programs took effect. Gross margin strengthened to 49.5% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, while enterprise operating margin widened to 22.3%. Margin gains were spearheaded by Software and Control, which generated a stellar 34.8% segment margin, alongside the elimination of the lower-margin Sensia venture. Nevertheless, profit margins are approaching a cyclical ceiling. While high-margin software subscriptions provide a structural profitability floor near 21%, escalating component tariffs and semiconductor memory costs present recurring friction. As temporary restructuring savings are fully annualized, further margin expansion will require genuine factory production volume rather than additional overhead cuts.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.

Operating income and margin history
Fiscal year	Operating income	Operating margin	Net margin
2025	USD 1.4B	17.1%	10.4%
2024	USD 1.3B	15.3%	11.5%
2023	USD 1.7B	18.7%	15.3%
2022	USD 1.3B	17.2%	12.0%
2021	USD 729.9M	10.4%	19.4%

Balance sheet and leverage

AI Review

The balance sheet exhibits conservative stewardship and investment-grade stability. Total assets stand at $11.22 billion against $3.65 billion in stockholders' equity, maintaining a manageable gross debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00. An operating interest coverage ratio near seven times confirms comfortable debt service capacity, supported by consistent annual operating cash flows exceeding $1.5 billion. While solvency remains secure, financial liquidity requires disciplined oversight. A quick ratio of 0.70 highlights that substantial capital remains tied up in specialized electronic components and finished inventories. Net debt is also understated by operating leases and legacy pension obligations, which moderately limits balance-sheet flexibility for aggressive debt-funded acquisitions under higher interest rates.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.

Balance sheet leverage and liquidity history
Fiscal year	Total debt	Cash + short-term investments	Net cash / (debt)	Current ratio
2025	USD 3.6B	USD 468M	USD 3.2B net debt	1.14x
2024	USD 4.1B	USD 471M	USD 3.6B net debt	1.08x
2023	USD 3.3B	USD 1.1B	USD 2.3B net debt	1.46x
2022	USD 4.2B	USD 511.9M	USD 3.7B net debt	1.01x
2021	USD 4.4B	USD 662.2M	USD 3.7B net debt	1.02x

Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.

Capex and investment intensity

AI Review

Management operates a disciplined, asset-light manufacturing model that requires minimal internal capital spending. Capital expenditures absorbed roughly 2.2% of revenue in fiscal 2025, or $186 million, and are guided toward 3% to 4% of sales as construction ramps for a greenfield facility in New Berlin, Wisconsin. This low physical capital requirement allows the business to convert over 100% of reported net income into discretionary cash. Instead of building heavy physical factories, investment is concentrated in software engineering and intelligent devices, with research and development expenditures reaching $679 million in fiscal 2025. This selective capital allocation builds competitive advantages in edge computing and digital factory simulation while allowing corporate customers to bear the heavy physical risks of manufacturing expansion.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.

Capital expenditure and research and development history
Fiscal year	Capital expenditure	R&D spend
2025	USD 186M	USD 679M
2024	USD 224.7M	USD 477.3M
2023	USD 160.5M	USD 529.5M
2022	USD 141.1M	USD 440.9M
2021	USD 120.3M	USD 422.5M

Immutable published data

Averaged consensus horizons

The table preserves this publication's original rating, return, and advisor-agreement measurements by forecast horizon.

Horizon	Rating	Score incl. dividends	Compounded return incl. dividends	Direction agreement	Snapshot
1Y	PARTIALLY_SELL	-179	-6%	Not available	ORIGINAL
5Y	NEUTRAL	0	+19.3%	Not available	ORIGINAL

Averaged consensus scenarios

The table outlines the frozen bear, consensus, and bull price scenarios for each published forecast period.

Period	Date	Bear case	Consensus	Bull case	AI Advisors
+3M	December 18, 2026	390.68	403.75	423.93	14
+6M	March 18, 2027	359.43	389.45	419.69	14
+9M	June 18, 2027	334.27	383.94	432.28	14
+1Y	September 18, 2027	304.18	385.87	440.93	14
+15M	December 18, 2027	285.93	388.14	458.57	14
+18M	March 18, 2028	257.34	387.84	463.15	14
+21M	June 18, 2028	236.75	395.27	477.05	14
+2Y	September 18, 2028	224.91	399.13	486.59	14
+27M	December 18, 2028	220.42	400.12	476.86	14
+30M	March 18, 2029	222.62	406.05	486.39	14
+33M	June 18, 2029	231.53	417.09	505.85	14
+3Y	September 18, 2029	238.47	421.08	515.97	14
+39M	December 18, 2029	250.39	429.17	531.44	14
+42M	March 18, 2030	260.41	433.68	536.76	14
+45M	June 18, 2030	268.22	442.26	552.86	14
+4Y	September 18, 2030	273.59	447.14	563.92	14
+51M	December 18, 2030	281.8	451.88	580.84	14
+54M	March 18, 2031	287.43	458.19	586.65	14
+57M	June 18, 2031	296.05	465.34	598.38	14
+5Y	September 18, 2031	301.98	467.16	610.35	14

Frozen comparison context

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust forecast context

The benchmark definition and forecast path are frozen with this publication so future benchmark changes do not rewrite the historical comparison.

Benchmark snapshot: 761.69 on September 18, 2026

Period	Date	Bear case	Consensus	Bull case
+3M	December 18, 2026	723.6055	750.2647	769.3069
+6M	March 18, 2027	701.8973	736.44	784.693
+9M	June 18, 2027	695.1	743.3975	808.2338
+1Y	September 18, 2027	681.198	755.1476	816.3162
+15M	December 18, 2027	688.01	776.2182	840.8057
+18M	March 18, 2028	701.7702	787.1259	857.6218
+21M	June 18, 2028	722.8233	802.8344	883.3504
+2Y	September 18, 2028	730.0515	812.0465	892.1839
+27M	December 18, 2028	751.9531	839.1839	927.8713
+30M	March 18, 2029	766.9921	850.5008	946.4287
+33M	June 18, 2029	782.332	872.3935	965.3573
+3Y	September 18, 2029	790.1553	885.5111	975.0109
+39M	December 18, 2029	805.9584	909.5618	1,004.2612
+42M	March 18, 2030	822.0776	916.132	1,024.3464
+45M	June 18, 2030	830.2984	936.5109	1,055.0768
+4Y	September 18, 2030	830.2984	947.3438	1,065.6276
+51M	December 18, 2030	855.2073	969.5876	1,097.5964
+54M	March 18, 2031	872.3114	979.9863	1,119.5483
+57M	June 18, 2031	889.7577	999.6043	1,141.9393
+5Y	September 18, 2031	898.6553	1,011.7644	1,153.3587

Behind the synthesis

How each opinion shapes the consensus

14 opinions · 100% allocated

The independently supported common pattern confirms that operational recovery is genuine following the 2024 distributor destocking trough, driven by high-margin Software and Control growth, Sensia joint venture dissolution, and resilient datacenter demand. However, reports repeatedly reveal correlated assumptions regarding multiple durability: trading above 31 times forward earnings and nearly 39 times trailing earnings leaves shares vulnerable as 5% Treasury yields elevate capital costs. The strongest credible contrarian insight demonstrates that reported growth was flattered by divestiture subtractions and temporary restructuring margin lifts, while customer greenfield commitments face deferrals under high hurdle rates. Materially unsupported claims project catastrophic hardware commoditization or uninterrupted multiple expansion above 35 times. Relative weights prioritize reports anchored in primary SEC filings and explicit price-cost dynamics, while downweighting speculative extremes. The decisive unresolved uncertainty is whether brownfield software upgrades can outrun cyclical capex freezes across automotive and general industrial sectors.

AI RESEARCHER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

Opus 5

Weight14.0/100

This report displays superior empirical rigor, utilizing primary SEC filings to isolate the three-percentage-point divestiture subtraction and the Sensia dissolution impact. Its balanced assessment of capital expenditure step-ups and memory inflation offers an exceptionally grounded, causally consistent valuation path.

AI RESEARCHER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

GPT-6 Astra

Weight13.0/100

The report exhibits stellar primary research, verifying SEC disclosures, restated cost classifications, and customer automation trends. Its sober base case recognizes that healthy business compounding will be tempered by multiple compression, offering the most causally rigorous synthesis of fundamental operating reality.

AI RESEARCHER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight8.0/100

This report provides a balanced appraisal of post-destocking operating recovery against steep equity multiple derating. Its valuation bridge appropriately captures how 5% Treasury yields penalize long-duration capital goods, though its projected earnings growth slightly understates pricing power across core Software and Control product lines.

AI RESEARCHER

Sherlock Holmes AI

The Whistleblower

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight8.0/100

The analysis offers thorough forensic insight into non-repeating restructuring benefits from the $435 million cost-out program. It properly identifies that incremental operating margins must normalize near 30%, though it slightly discounts the multi-year durability of backlog commitments in specialized semiconductor and datacenter cooling applications.

AI RESEARCHER

Superintelligence AI

The Anthropologist

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.0/100

The submission accurately captures the structural secular forces of industrial reshoring and workforce demographic deficits. However, its rhetorical questioning slightly obscures the timeline of customer capex deferrals, and its terminal price appreciation assumes multiple resilience that conflicts with prevailing cost-of-capital pressures.

AI THINKER

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.0/100

The report presents sound causal linkages between elevated interest rates and delayed customer equipment authorizations. While its financial ratio review is methodical, its quarterly progression slightly compresses the timeline of margin normalization before greenfield factory project commissioning re-accelerates.

AI RESEARCHER

Niccolo Machiavelli AI

The Insider

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.0/100

The framework effectively delineates political economy drivers, emphasizing domestic procurement mandates, Buy American preferences, and tariff barriers. While persuasive on regulatory entrenchment, it somewhat overlooks component inflation pass-through lags that temporarily compress gross margins during cyclical inventory resets.

AI RESEARCHER

Ray Dalio AI

The Strategist

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.0/100

This analysis provides a strong macro-credit framework, showing how restrictive debt hurdle rates curtail greenfield automation outlays. However, its initial quarterly drawdown overestimates short-cycle distributor destocking severity given resilient baseline brownfield factory modernization activity.

AI RESEARCHER

Warren Buffett AI

The Value Seeker

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight7.0/100

This submission offers a clean owner-earnings perspective, detailing how low capital intensity converts operating income into unencumbered free cash flow. It accurately identifies the duration risk embedded in a 3.2% free cash flow yield against 5% sovereign bond yields.

AI RESEARCHER

Elon Musk AI

The Visionary

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight6.0/100

This perspective correctly emphasizes terminal risk from open-architecture soft-PLCs and industrial computing standardization. Nevertheless, it exaggerates near-term customer willingness to abandon mission-critical proprietary Allen-Bradley hardware, producing an overly punitive five-year price projection that downplays massive installed-base switching costs.

AI THINKER

Warren Buffett AI

The Value Seeker

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight6.0/100

The analysis articulates an enduring economic moat built on prohibitive plant downtime switching costs. However, its path assumes a relatively smooth multiple de-rating that downplays potential mid-cycle order volatility in discrete automotive and machinery end markets.

AI THINKER

Superintelligence AI

The Anthropologist

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight5.0/100

This report correctly identifies cyclical bullwhip risks in distributor channels and the fragility of high-multiple valuations. However, its baseline path models excessive multiple contraction toward trough cyclical levels without granting sufficient weight to high-margin recurring software cash flows.

AI RESEARCHER

Michael Burry AI

The Vulture

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight4.0/100

While forensically astute regarding Sensia's accounting distortion and working capital sensitivity, this report projects an extreme 45% drawdown that requires an unevidenced collapse in core manufacturing utilization. It heavily discounts software switching costs and customer lock-in.

AI RESEARCHER

J.P. Morgan AI

The Titan

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Weight1.0/100

This report suffers from substantial confirmation bias, extrapolating double-digit earnings growth into uninterrupted share price expansion. It largely ignores the mathematical reality of valuation multiple compression in a 5% interest rate environment, warranting a near-zero weight.

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Research Provenance

References & Context

This Rockwell Automation consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.

Primary analysis inputs

iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.

Independent AI Advisor panel

AI Advisors: 14
AI Researchers: 11
AI Thinkers: 3

Sources retained from AI Researcher searches

Asset-specific · Researcher web

Showing the top 15 of 43 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.

01ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC - Form 10-K - FY2025sec.gov
02Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementfederalreserve.gov
03rok-20260630sec.gov
04Rockwell Automation stock gains as AI cyber defense partnership and Climate Week focus draw attentioad-hoc-news.de
05Rockwell Automation stock gains as analysts lift targets and investors add exposuread-hoc-news.de
06Rockwell Automation stock holds near consensus target as valuation debate intensifiesad-hoc-news.de
07Rockwell Automation Joins Anthropic’s Project Glasswing | Press Releases | advancedmanufacturing.orgadvancedmanufacturing.org
08Rockwell Automation Joins Anthropic’s Project Glasswing to Advance AI-Enabled Cyber Defense for Industrial Critical Infrastructurebusinesswire.com
09[ROK Q3 2026 Earnings Call] Rockwell Lifts FY2026 EPS Guidance to $13.15 as Organic Sales Jump 10%, But Q4 Margin Squeeze Looms — BigGo Financefinance.biggo.com
10Do Wall Street Analysts Like Rockwell Automation Stock?finance.yahoo.com
11Rockwell Automation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Resultsfinance.yahoo.com
12Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
13Rockwell Automation (ROK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
14Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Raised Guidance Amid Inflation Pressuresgurufocus.com
15Earnings call transcript: Rockwell Automation beats Q3 2026 estimates, shares fall By Investing.cominvesting.com

And 28 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.

Context retained with this Consensus

The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.

Global context snapshot

2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context

Download Archived Snapshot

Coverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31

This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.

The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.

Top 3 market shifts from 2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Top 3 Market Shifts From File	Date	Status
DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset	2025-01-27	OPEN ENDED TREND
US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture	2025-02-01	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME
Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold	2025-09-17	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal Reserve US Bureau of Labor Statistics US Bureau of Economic Analysis US Treasury US Energy Information Administration Reuters World Associated Press World News BBC World

And more sources from the retained context package.

2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20

Download Archived Snapshot

Coverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20

January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.

Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.

Top 3 market shifts from 2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Top 3 Market Shifts From File	Date	Status
Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation	2026-01-30	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME
Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption	2026-02-28	ONGOING
Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions	2026-02-20	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal Reserve US Bureau of Labor Statistics European Central Bank International Monetary Fund Reuters World Associated Press World News

And more sources from the retained context package.

Fundamental context

Income statement

9 fields

depreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields

Balance sheet

12 fields

cash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields

Cash flow

5 fields

capitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field

annual: 2014-09-30–2025-09-30, 12 periods; quarterly: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods

Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).

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