Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc (RXRX.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkPrice-adjusted rating
Partial Sell
5-Year Return Est.
-10.2%
RXRX.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Recursion is doing the right things too slowly for its own balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry. Cost discipline has genuinely extended survival, partner validation continues, and REC-4881 produced the most convincing clinical signal in the company's history. Yet $556.8 million of cash meets roughly $375 million of annual cash opex, and a $300 million ATM sits ready [1][2][5]. The base case is therefore neither collapse nor re-rating: clinical progress accrues, a financing takes a bite out of per-share value during 2027-2028, and the share price ends the horizon near where it started, having travelled violently in between.
- Cash opex of $375 million against $54.9 million TTM revenue implies roughly $1.3 billion of external funding needed by 2031.
- At a $2.04 billion market cap, that funding equals 40-60% dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares. unless a catalyst lifts the issuance price first.
- Enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry near $1.5 billion net of cash values seven early assets at roughly $210 million each.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 23.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-19 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 21.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-13 | 19.74 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-25 | 18.26 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 20.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-10 | 16.14 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-08 | 19.81 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-16 | 17.70 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-20 | 19.29 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-09 | 15.56 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-13 | 13.90 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-29 | 11.10 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-10 | 11.79 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-22 | 10.16 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-02 | 10.74 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 6.16 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-03 | 7.76 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-07 | 6.69 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-19 | 6.48 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-09 | 5.56 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-25 | 5.49 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-02 | 6.49 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-14 | 6.20 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-22 | 8.56 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-12 | 8.00 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-20 | 8.99 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-24 | 7.84 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-13 | 12.35 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 11.52 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-21 | 9.70 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-14 | 13.47 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-26 | 9.97 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-04 | 11.84 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-20 | 10.33 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-05 | 9.56 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-13 | 12.63 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-07 | 9.33 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-11 | 8.79 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-15 | 8.47 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-27 | 7.16 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-08 | 7.49 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-16 | 9.06 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-05 | 9.28 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-21 | 7.71 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-05 | 8.30 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 7.41 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-21 | 7.43 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-10 | 6.52 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-18 | 5.94 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-30 | 4.78 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-16 | 5.13 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-24 | 8.96 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-05 | 8.43 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-13 | 9.94 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-11 | 6.78 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-15 | 12.40 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-19 | 15.86 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-08 | 11.55 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-12 | 9.49 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-24 | 8.57 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-05 | 8.70 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-25 | 7.69 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-29 | 7.65 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-19 | 6.05 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-31 | 5.28 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-04 | 5.78 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-16 | 6.67 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-06 | 7.42 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-10 | 7.57 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-26 | 10.79 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-07 | 12.38 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-19 | 9.63 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-04 | 9.18 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-16 | 13.15 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-24 | 13.83 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 10.37 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-15 | 11.22 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-04 | 8.73 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-08 | 9.00 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-20 | 7.43 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-10 | 8.60 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-14 | 10.05 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-07 | 8.51 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 9.30 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-19 | 9.43 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-05 | 7.32 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-17 | 8.35 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 7.02 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-10 | 6.20 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-26 | 7.89 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-30 | 7.28 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-07 | 5.99 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-27 | 6.98 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-05 | 6.13 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-02 | 6.48 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-06 | 6.97 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-10 | 7.59 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-22 | 5.70 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-08 | 8.18 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-20 | 6.03 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-05 | 7.90 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 6.53 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-21 | 6.88 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-10 | 7.65 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-18 | 10.64 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-06 | 6.24 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-22 | 6.72 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-30 | 5.46 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-07 | 4.20 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-11 | 5.76 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-27 | 5.80 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-09 | 4.33 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-21 | 4.09 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-06 | 5.49 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-22 | 4.90 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-26 | 5.40 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-12 | 5.28 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-28 | 6.31 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-13 | 5.70 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-21 | 4.78 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-25 | 4.83 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-10 | 4.54 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-26 | 4.72 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-08 | 6.09 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-12 | 5.46 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-20 | 6.68 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-05 | 4.96 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-17 | 4.12 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-07 | 4.78 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-15 | 4.20 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-31 | 4.09 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 4.81 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-24 | 4.68 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-05 | 3.56 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-09 | 3.98 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-21 | 3.42 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-05 | 3.54 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-25 | 3.17 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 2.87 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-18 | 3.75 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-22 | 3.73 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-12 | 3.15 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-16 | 2.92 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 3.79 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-17 | 3.11 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-29 | 3.69 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-07 | 3.84 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-19 | 2.91 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-31 | 3.00 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-04 | 3.31 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-05 | 3.58 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-09 | 3.21 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 3.34 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 4.05 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 3.74 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 3.83 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 4.06 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 3.74 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 3.55 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 3.69 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 3.17 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 3.33 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 3.43 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 3.23 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 3.36 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 3.25 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 3.42 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 3.21 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 3.31 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 3.24 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 3.44 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 3.27 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 3.36 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 3.30 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 3.43 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 3.36 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates if the FDA endorses polyp burden as a registrational endpoint before the cash runway forces a raise. That single sequencing change flips the reflexive loop: a defined NDA timeline lifts the share price, which turns the ATM from a dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry threat into cheap, opportunistic capital, which funds REC-617 and REC-3565 readouts in 1H27 from strength rather than desperation. Partner interest then intensifies, and the platform is repriced as scarce infrastructure rather than a cost centre.
Bear case
The bear case activates when a disappointing regulatory response meets a depleted treasury in the same quarter. Loss of the lead asset's credibility forces financing into weakness, and each discounted tranche lowers the price at which the next tranche must clear. Management then cuts opex again, slowing the very programs that justify the remaining valuation, while a 2.77 beta amplifies every macro downdraft. The result is a self-reinforcing descent toward cash value with the platform assigned little worth.
Current crowd narrative
The tape and the sell side are telling opposite stories. Seven analysts carry a Buy consensus with a $7.22 average target, roughly double the $3.83 close, while the stock sits 84.5% below its five-year peak [19][22]. Consensus treats the Roche relationship and AI-discovery narrative as settled validation and anchors on headline partnership value, quietly assuming the next financing is painless.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates these shares, but the error is not about the science. Sell-side targets near $7 discount a successful FAP filing while ignoring the arithmetic: $556.8 million cash against roughly $375 million annual cash opex implies exhaustion near end-2027, and a $300 million ATM sits pre-loaded [1][2][5]. Management extended runway guidance by cutting costs, not raising capital, which is disciplined and also an admission. Per-share option value is therefore taxed before any clinical outcome resolves.
Convergence catalyst
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