Philip Morris International Inc (PM.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkPrice-adjusted rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+41.0%
Includes 2.16% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The question is not whether PMI grows — it is whether a 22.7x forward multipleforward multipleForward multiple is a valuation ratio based on forecast earnings, sales, or cash flow rather than historical results.View full glossary entry survives while the American smoke-free engine that justified the re-rating visibly stalls. Combustible price/mix and ex-US IQOS conversion should deliver roughly 7-9% currency-neutral adjusted EPS growtheps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period.View full glossary entry, carrying FY2026's approximate $8.35 midpoint [1][20] toward about $12 by 2031. Against that, a 5% ten-year yield and a 73% payout ratio argue for gradual de-rating toward the 18-19x five-year median [18]. The probable outcome: earnings compound steadily, the multiple leaks, and shareholders collect modest price appreciation plus a reliable dividend.
- FY2026 adjusted EPS midpoint near $8.35 compounding around 8% annually implies roughly $12 by 2031.
- At 18-19x that figure, equity value lands near $225-235 against $189 today.
- Cross-check: roughly $12B free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry versus $10B dividends leaves thin room for buybacks.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-04 | 96.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-16 | 97.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-28 | 94.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-13 | 94.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-21 | 90.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-29 | 87.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-15 | 92.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-23 | 92.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 99.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-24 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-28 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-17 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-25 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-01 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-13 | 90.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-25 | 92.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-14 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-26 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-08 | 98.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-20 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-28 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-17 | 98.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-29 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-15 | 89.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-23 | 96.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-12 | 99.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-05 | 94.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-09 | 97.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-29 | 86.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-07 | 84.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-23 | 87.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-27 | 89.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 94.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-20 | 96.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-02 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-18 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-23 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-27 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-20 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-24 | 99.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-16 | 95.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-24 | 90.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-09 | 98.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-17 | 99.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 95.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-07 | 95.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-27 | 90.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-04 | 90.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-20 | 94.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-28 | 96.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-14 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 99.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 96.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-11 | 96.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-23 | 94.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-20 | 97.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-24 | 93.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-02 | 91.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-10 | 94.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-22 | 91.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-30 | 89.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-15 | 91.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-27 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 91.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-17 | 94.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-06 | 95.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-22 | 92.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-03 | 92.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-15 | 89.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 89.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-10 | 93.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-18 | 94.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-03 | 91.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-15 | 88.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-23 | 97.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 96.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-29 | 99.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-06 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-22 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-04 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-12 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-25 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-10 | 127 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-18 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-30 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-08 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-16 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-24 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-09 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-29 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-03 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-23 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-04 | 122 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-20 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-17 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-25 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-13 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-29 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-22 | 165 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-08 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-12 | 165 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-20 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-05 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 184 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-03 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-07 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-27 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-04 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-20 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-24 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-05 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-25 | 164 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-03 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-11 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-31 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-04 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-24 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-28 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-06 | 148 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-11 | 164 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-19 | 168 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 180 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-08 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-24 | 187 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-04 | 179 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-20 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-28 | 164 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 183 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-15 | 192 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-08 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-12 | 184 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-14 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-22 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-26 | 195 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-11 | 186 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-27 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-04 | 183 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-12 | 192 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 187 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 190 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 189 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 185 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 190 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 194 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 192 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 198 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 202 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 204 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 208 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 212 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 214 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 219 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 214 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 219 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 223 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 225 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 230 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 232 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 237 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 239 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 241 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates the day the FDA clears IQOS ILUMA. Authorization would convert a stalled US business into a genuine second growth leg, validating the smoke-free narrative just as a completed Fed cycle lowers the discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry on defensive cash flows. Sequentially, ZYN destocking ends, US gross profit inflects, currency-neutral eps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period. accelerates past 10%, and a weakening dollar amplifies translation. The multiple holds near 22x on far larger earnings, delivering equity returns well above the base path.
Bear case
The bear case begins where the H1 2026 US numbers already point. Promotional defence against VELO, Rogue and ALP permanently resets ZYN's margin; ILUMA slips again; and European excise harmonisation removes the smoke-free tax advantage. Currency-neutral eps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period. decelerates toward 4%, refinancing at higher coupons erodes the remainder, and investors reclassify PM from growth staple to yield instrument. The multiple converges toward BAT's low-teens rating, and the shares de-rate faster than earnings grow.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief: PMI has escaped tobacco's gravity and become a smoke-free growth company deserving a staples multiple. Ten buys against two holds, an average target near $206-207 and a 22.7x forward rating encode that conviction [15][17]. The anchoring bias is the 2023-2025 re-rating itself; investors extrapolate ZYN's explosive early adoption while treating the H1 2026 US gross-profit collapse as a destocking footnote rather than a competitive signal.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates these shares. Two pieces of evidence point the same way: US adjusted gross profit fell 27.6% in H1 2026 while shipments rose [1], meaning price and promotional intensity, not inventory, are doing the damage; and the trailing 27x rating already embeds an ILUMA authorization that has sat undecided for 32 months [5]. The blind spot is duration — investors are paying a growth multiplegrowth multipleGrowth multiple is a valuation premium assigned to businesses expected to sustain faster expansion than peers or the broader market.View full glossary entry for an algorithm whose highest-margin leg is being competed down while refinancing costsrefinancing costsIncreased interest expenses incurred when rolling over existing debt at higher market rates.View full glossary entry rise against negative book equity.
Convergence catalyst
Watch the Q4 2026 and FY2027 guidance in early February 2027. If US smoke-free gross profit fails to inflect and management guides currency-neutral eps growthThe percentage increase in earnings per share over a specified period. below 8%, the premium to the 18.8x five-year median begins unwinding. The first sign is target-price trimming toward $195 while earnings estimates hold.
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