Oracle Corporation (ORCL.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+45.4%
Includes 1.02% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that Oracle is winning the revenue argument and losing the cash argument at the same time. Revenue accelerated 30% and the backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry reached $664 billion, yet the shares fell 26% year to date because the market decided the funding gap, not demand, determines the outcome [4][6]. Base case: conversion arrives roughly on management's schedule, depreciation and interest absorb most of the operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry, and the equity grinds higher from a genuinely reset multiple without recovering its 2025 valuation. Investors are paid for patience, not brilliance, and dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares. skims part of the reward.
- FY27 adjusted EPS guide of $8.10 against $148 implies roughly 18x forward, versus 23.4x trailing GAAP [9].
- Terminal path assumes ~$190 billion FY31 revenue and mid-teens EV/EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry, consistent with ~$205 per share.
- Cross-check: ~3.3 billion shares post-dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares. plus ~$200 billion net debtnet debtTotal debt minus cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry implies an $875 billion enterprise valueenterprise valueA measure of total business value, commonly calculated as equity value plus debt and preferred claims, less cash and cash equivalents.View full glossary entry.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-17 | 86.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-09 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-22 | 98.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-31 | 94.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-17 | 95.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-30 | 90.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-13 | 99.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-26 | 88.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 88.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-21 | 82.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-07 | 83.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-16 | 76.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-20 | 73.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-14 | 79.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-27 | 83.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-09 | 80.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-18 | 80.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-05 | 72.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-18 | 67.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-31 | 73.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-04 | 72.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-09 | 68.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-13 | 70.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-22 | 74.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-26 | 75.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-17 | 79.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-21 | 77.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-30 | 74.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-16 | 69.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-29 | 63.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-12 | 63.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-30 | 76.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-07 | 75.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-29 | 82.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-08 | 79.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 81.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-29 | 81.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-16 | 88.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-24 | 89.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-11 | 87.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-04 | 89.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-13 | 84.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 85.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-04 | 94.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-17 | 96.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-25 | 93.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-08 | 96.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-30 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-03 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-16 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-29 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-08 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-20 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-07 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-15 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-28 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-11 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-24 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-06 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-19 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-11 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-06 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-19 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-05 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-14 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-23 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-20 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-02 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-10 | 121 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-23 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-06 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-24 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-01 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-19 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-06 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-19 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-23 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-18 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-09 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-13 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-05 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-14 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-31 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-04 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-22 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-05 | 189 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-18 | 170 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-26 | 171 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-13 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-30 | 164 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-12 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-16 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-19 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-05 | 131 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-18 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-01 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-05 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-27 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-31 | 166 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-18 | 208 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-26 | 214 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-18 | 245 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-22 | 242 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-04 | 256 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-17 | 249 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-04 | 223 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-21 | 325 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-30 | 281 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 308 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-30 | 271 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-03 | 255 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-25 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-08 | 218 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-17 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 190 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-12 | 201 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-20 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-02 | 151 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-24 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-09 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-13 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-26 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-08 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 177 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-17 | 185 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-26 | 200 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-30 | 226 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-21 | 169 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-25 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-17 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-25 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-12 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-25 | 146 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-07 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-22 | 149 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 137 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 148 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 140 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 147 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 153 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 142 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 151 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 155 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 162 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 154 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 161 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 166 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 173 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 176 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 182 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 187 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 179 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 185 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 190 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 194 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 198 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 204 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates the moment financing stops being an existential question. An OpenAI listing or comparable mega-round in 2027 funds the payment calendar, CDS collapses through 150 basis points, and Oracle's cost of capitalcost of capitalCost of capital is the required return investors demand to fund a business, project, or asset, reflecting risk and financing mix.View full glossary entry falls just as converted backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. revenue begins flowing. Lower discount rates plus visible free-cash inflection by FY2029 allow the multiple to expand while earnings compound, the classic double engine. Buybacks resume, dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry reverses, and the shares recover toward $320-360.
Bear case
The bear case begins with a receivable that never arrives. If OpenAI's funding lags its burn through 2027-2028, contracts are deferred or restructured, stranding purpose-built capacity that still depreciates. Impairments then collide with $125 billion of gross debt, S&P cuts to high yield, index-mandated bond selling forces a distressed equity raise, and per-share value is destroyed by dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares. at the worst price. Under that sequence the shares revisit $80-95 and stay there.
Current crowd narrative
The market has stopped valuing Oracle as an 80%-margin software annuity and started pricing it as a leveraged, single-counterparty datacentre developer. Consensus treats the $664 billion backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. as real but unfunded, and the $148 price as the credit market's verdict rather than the equity market's. The anchoring bias is the $324.63 September 2025 high: every headline is read as further distance from a peak that priced flawless AI monetisation.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd slightly underestimates the shares, but for narrower reasons than the bulls claim. Consensus correctly punished the cash-flow contradiction: $28.5 billion of quarterly capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry against negative $5.4 billion free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry [4]. What it under-weights is that the prepayment and bring-your-own-hardware structures on over $30 billion of new Q1 contracts shift capital intensitycapital intensityA business condition where large upfront spending on assets and infrastructure is needed to operate and grow.View full glossary entry onto customers [12], while 21,000 headcount removals are permanently recurring. The offsetting blind spot on the bull side is depreciation: D&A is compounding faster than revenue, so GAAP earnings quality deteriorates even in success.
Convergence catalyst
The decisive trigger is the FY28 guidance frame alongside the first quarter of recognised OpenAI revenue, likely mid-2027. If converted revenue arrives while capital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods. guidance holds flat, the free-cash trajectory becomes arithmetically visible. The first observable repricing sign is CDS narrowing through 150 basis points before the equity moves.
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