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LUNR.NASDAQ
Intuitive Machines
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Intuitive Machines, Inc. operates as a space infrastructure and services company in the United States.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

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Compare independent AI Advisor forecasts, ratings, scenarios, risks, configurations, sources, and step-by-step prediction paths for Intuitive Machines.

Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is identity. The market still debates whether landers stay upright; the income statement has quietly become that of a satellite prime with a lunar option attached. Lanteris supplies the revenue and the defence customer list, CLPS supplies the narrative, and the share register supplies the funding. Over five years that combination should deliver real and modest around 2029, but recurring equity issuance and estimate-at-complete charges siphon much of the operating improvement before it reaches per-share value. Expect appreciation roughly in line with a risk-adjusted market return, earned through violent swings rather than a smooth re-rating.

  • Revenue base moves from $490m TTM toward roughly $1.8bn by 2031 on defence production volume.
  • At 1.6x forward sales and a diluted count near 280m, that supports low-twenties per share.
  • Cross-check: implied 2031 near $3.0bn equals about 14x an $210m run-rate.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-1.9510.7923.5336.2849.02Nov 2021May 2024Oct 2026Apr 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-11-179.65
Observed price2021-12-039.70
Observed price2021-12-279.69
Observed price2021-12-319.64
Observed price2022-01-129.66
Observed price2022-01-249.69
Observed price2022-02-139.62
Observed price2022-02-179.70
Observed price2022-02-219.70
Observed price2022-03-019.63
Observed price2022-03-219.69
Observed price2022-04-069.64
Observed price2022-04-149.65
Observed price2022-04-269.72
Observed price2022-05-049.71
Observed price2022-05-169.63
Observed price2022-05-289.64
Observed price2022-06-139.72
Observed price2022-06-219.63
Observed price2022-07-119.69
Observed price2022-07-199.69
Observed price2022-08-049.75
Observed price2022-08-089.75
Observed price2022-08-289.73
Observed price2022-09-099.72
Observed price2022-09-219.85
Observed price2022-09-299.83
Observed price2022-10-079.81
Observed price2022-10-199.82
Observed price2022-10-279.90
Observed price2022-11-209.86
Observed price2022-12-029.92
Observed price2022-12-189.95
Observed price2022-12-2210.00
Observed price2023-01-0310.00
Observed price2023-01-1510.06
Observed price2023-02-049.18
Observed price2023-02-0810.44
Observed price2023-02-1644.8
Observed price2023-03-0810.26
Observed price2023-03-1214.65
Observed price2023-03-2810.44
Observed price2023-04-0910.73
Observed price2023-04-257.25
Observed price2023-05-077.05
Observed price2023-05-118.25
Observed price2023-05-276.76
Observed price2023-06-129.63
Observed price2023-06-169.83
Observed price2023-07-028.10
Observed price2023-07-149.63
Observed price2023-07-308.49
Observed price2023-08-118.49
Observed price2023-08-234.57
Observed price2023-09-044.94
Observed price2023-09-164.18
Observed price2023-09-204.00
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Observed price2023-10-262.78
Observed price2023-11-073.17
Observed price2023-11-112.81
Observed price2023-12-053.13
Observed price2023-12-212.56
Observed price2024-01-062.30
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Observed price2024-01-262.57
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Observed price2024-02-115.20
Observed price2024-02-1910.07
Observed price2024-03-064.90
Observed price2024-03-267.13
Observed price2024-03-306.45
Observed price2024-04-154.86
Observed price2024-05-015.16
Observed price2024-05-136.07
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Observed price2024-06-064.49
Observed price2024-06-104.39
Observed price2024-06-303.43
Observed price2024-07-043.62
Observed price2024-07-164.50
Observed price2024-07-284.24
Observed price2024-08-053.34
Observed price2024-08-294.82
Observed price2024-09-105.81
Observed price2024-09-145.99
Observed price2024-09-228.40
Observed price2024-10-087.39
Observed price2024-10-168.37
Observed price2024-11-057.74
Observed price2024-11-2113.99
Observed price2024-11-2916.35
Observed price2024-12-1111.66
Observed price2024-12-1912.78
Observed price2025-01-0421.8
Observed price2025-01-1217.23
Observed price2025-01-2423.1
Observed price2025-02-1720.1
Observed price2025-02-2515.40
Observed price2025-03-0114.21
Observed price2025-03-136.70
Observed price2025-03-259.20
Observed price2025-04-067.04
Observed price2025-04-187.35
Observed price2025-05-089.35
Observed price2025-05-129.50
Observed price2025-05-1612.36
Observed price2025-06-0911.79
Observed price2025-06-2510.04
Observed price2025-07-0710.41
Observed price2025-07-1912.02
Observed price2025-07-2313.37
Observed price2025-08-089.81
Observed price2025-08-169.09
Observed price2025-09-058.49
Observed price2025-09-098.41
Observed price2025-09-2910.26
Observed price2025-10-0311.44
Observed price2025-10-1512.88
Observed price2025-10-2712.79
Observed price2025-11-169.00
Observed price2025-11-208.05
Observed price2025-12-1011.83
Observed price2025-12-1810.85
Observed price2026-01-0318.04
Observed price2026-01-0718.62
Observed price2026-01-1921.3
Observed price2026-02-0818.81
Observed price2026-02-1215.72
Observed price2026-02-2418.90
Observed price2026-02-2816.98
Observed price2026-03-2817.13
Observed price2026-04-0523.2
Observed price2026-04-1324.4
Observed price2026-04-2127.8
Observed price2026-05-0724.1
Observed price2026-05-2740.3
Observed price2026-05-3140.1
Observed price2026-06-2022.4
Observed price2026-06-2820.6
Observed price2026-07-1414.91
Observed price2026-07-3012.25
Observed price2026-08-0716.40
Observed price2026-08-1519.47
Observed price2026-08-3115.36
Observed price2026-09-1613.87
Observed price2026-09-2216.24
Observed price2026-09-2315.24
Observed price2026-09-2415.70
Observed price2026-09-2515.61
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1813.92
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1813.08
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1814.13
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1813.43
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1814.23
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1814.80
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1813.76
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1814.86
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1815.61
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1816.08
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1815.27
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1816.34
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1817.00
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1817.68
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1818.21
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1817.11
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1818.14
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1818.87
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1819.43
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1820.2
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1820.8

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

Everything hinges on one upright lander and one appropriations line arriving together. A nominal IM-3 surface mission restores the premium the tape stripped away, while Golden Dome converts eighteen AMDT-3 satellites into a multi-year production block, lifting coverage above the thin 1.9x it carries today. Positive then ends the ATM dependency, removing the overhang that caps every rally. The equity re-rates on EV/ rather than price-to-sales, and doubles from here.

Bear case

The bear case starts with a missed quarter and ends with a discounted placement. If Q4 conversion falls short of the 25-30% guided rate, full-year positive evaporates, cash approaches $200m, and management must issue equity into a 5% Treasury market at a price below every 2026 raise. A simultaneous IM-3 anomaly would strip the lunar premium entirely, leaving a sub-scale satellite manufacturer valued on defence-prime multiples. That maths points well below $9.

Current crowd narrative

The tape treats LUNR as a busted lunar lottery ticket: down from a $46.75 high to $7.78 and back to $13.92 [22], with BofA raising its target to a still-sub-spot $13. Consensus now anchors on and while barely pricing the acquired Lanteris satellite franchise. The crowd still frames it as a moon story, not a satellite prime, and argues about landings rather than .

Alpha-gap assessment

Roughly fair, with the mispricing running in two directions that largely cancel. The market underestimates the durability of an acquired GEO/LEO manufacturing line whose national-security mix jumped from 3% to 30% in a year [5], and overestimates per-share economics because the Up-C structure hides perhaps 60m economic shares behind the 162m Class A figure [8]. On a fully diluted basis, forward EV/sales near 2.9x sits at, not below, the historical 2.7x median [22]. No convincing edge.

Convergence catalyst

The February-March 2027 full-year print is the hinge: a verified positive full-year against $900m-$1.0bn revenue [4] would reclassify the equity from cash-burning concept to defence-adjacent manufacturer. First observable sign of repricing is sell-side moving from price-to-sales to EV/ framing.

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