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F.NYSE
Ford Motor
Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers

Global automotive company designing, manufacturing, and servicing vehicles with focus on electric and autonomous technology.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Ford Motor.

Historical AI ConsensusHistorical AI Forecasts

Ford Motor Company (F.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 5 June 2026Deep analysis 5 June 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Warren Buffett AI advisor icon

Warren Buffett AI

The Value Seeker FrameworkAI Thinker

Model rating

Strong Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+121.3%

Includes 3.18% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

I strongly believe we are looking at a classic Buffett-style value realization. Ford is a capital-heavy business, but Mr. Market is currently offering it at a price so irrationally low that the is ironclad. The thesis relies on the durability of the moat, the pragmatic cessation of EV , and the sheer mathematical weight of a ~19% . While the is fraught with energy and rate shocks, Ford's cash generation provides a fortress.

  • 's software and commercial dominance drives sticky, high-margin owner's earnings.
  • Management's rational pullback from Model e stops the value destruction.
  • Regulatory deregulation (OBBB) extends the highly profitable ICE franchise lifespan.
  • $12B in easily covers a generous dividend, paying owners to wait for .
  • A conservative DCF implies an comfortably in the $25-$30 range.

Critically reflecting on capital competition, while higher treasury yields offer risk-free alternatives, a double-digit with a widening commercial moat offers a highly superior risk-adjusted return over the next five years.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.7.313.2319.1525.0831.01Jun 2021Dec 2023Jun 2026Dec 2028Jun 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-06-0415.88
Observed price2021-06-2014.93
Observed price2021-07-0114.93
Observed price2021-07-2314.03
Observed price2021-08-0313.88
Observed price2021-08-1913.02
Observed price2021-09-1012.69
Observed price2021-09-1513.34
Observed price2021-09-2013.26
Observed price2021-10-1215.37
Observed price2021-10-1715.84
Observed price2021-11-0819.45
Observed price2021-11-2419.93
Observed price2021-11-3019.19
Observed price2021-12-2120.1
Observed price2022-01-0122.9
Observed price2022-01-1224.7
Observed price2022-01-2819.72
Observed price2022-02-0320.0
Observed price2022-02-1417.47
Observed price2022-03-0217.63
Observed price2022-03-1316.16
Observed price2022-03-2916.79
Observed price2022-04-0915.37
Observed price2022-04-2514.82
Observed price2022-05-1112.91
Observed price2022-05-2713.61
Observed price2022-06-1312.58
Observed price2022-06-1811.87
Observed price2022-07-0411.22
Observed price2022-07-1512.00
Observed price2022-08-0615.60
Observed price2022-08-1716.15
Observed price2022-09-0215.25
Observed price2022-09-1315.30
Observed price2022-09-2912.22
Observed price2022-10-1011.38
Observed price2022-10-2612.87
Observed price2022-10-3113.39
Observed price2022-11-1114.46
Observed price2022-11-2713.94
Observed price2022-12-1911.63
Observed price2022-12-2511.41
Observed price2023-01-1013.10
Observed price2023-01-2112.58
Observed price2023-02-0613.36
Observed price2023-03-0512.89
Observed price2023-03-1012.06
Observed price2023-03-2111.50
Observed price2023-04-0612.70
Observed price2023-04-1212.61
Observed price2023-04-2811.67
Observed price2023-05-2511.48
Observed price2023-05-3112.00
Observed price2023-06-0512.84
Observed price2023-06-2714.65
Observed price2023-07-0715.06
Observed price2023-07-2413.66
Observed price2023-07-2913.22
Observed price2023-08-2011.97
Observed price2023-08-2511.93
Observed price2023-09-1612.60
Observed price2023-09-2112.57
Observed price2023-10-0712.07
Observed price2023-10-1811.88
Observed price2023-10-299.82
Observed price2023-11-2510.34
Observed price2023-12-0610.80
Observed price2023-12-1111.16
Observed price2023-12-2812.36
Observed price2024-01-0711.97
Observed price2024-01-1811.21
Observed price2024-02-0411.96
Observed price2024-02-0912.59
Observed price2024-03-1212.12
Observed price2024-03-2313.02
Observed price2024-03-2913.27
Observed price2024-04-1412.35
Observed price2024-04-2512.81
Observed price2024-05-1612.30
Observed price2024-05-2212.16
Observed price2024-06-1212.03
Observed price2024-06-1811.80
Observed price2024-07-1013.51
Observed price2024-07-1514.33
Observed price2024-08-069.78
Observed price2024-08-1110.25
Observed price2024-08-2711.12
Observed price2024-09-1810.90
Observed price2024-09-2310.52
Observed price2024-10-0410.59
Observed price2024-10-2011.06
Observed price2024-10-3110.39
Observed price2024-11-0611.16
Observed price2024-11-2711.03
Observed price2024-12-199.76
Observed price2024-12-2410.02
Observed price2025-01-049.69
Observed price2025-01-2610.07
Observed price2025-02-119.32
Observed price2025-03-059.29
Observed price2025-03-109.92
Observed price2025-03-2610.25
Observed price2025-04-069.28
Observed price2025-04-129.39
Observed price2025-05-0310.28
Observed price2025-05-1410.71
Observed price2025-05-3010.23
Observed price2025-06-0510.31
Observed price2025-06-2610.80
Observed price2025-07-0711.88
Observed price2025-07-1811.22
Observed price2025-08-0311.03
Observed price2025-08-2011.62
Observed price2025-08-2511.81
Observed price2025-09-1611.68
Observed price2025-10-0212.57
Observed price2025-10-1311.68
Observed price2025-10-1812.24
Observed price2025-11-0913.32
Observed price2025-11-1413.26
Observed price2025-11-2013.00
Observed price2025-12-1113.59
Observed price2025-12-2713.25
Observed price2026-01-1813.59
Observed price2026-01-2913.99
Observed price2026-02-0913.60
Observed price2026-02-1414.12
Observed price2026-03-0212.95
Observed price2026-03-2411.61
Observed price2026-03-2911.48
Observed price2026-04-2012.78
Observed price2026-05-0111.90
Observed price2026-05-1713.17
Observed price2026-05-2815.87
Observed price2026-06-1314.37
Observed price2026-07-0513.76
Observed price2026-07-1013.96
Observed price2026-07-2714.70
Observed price2026-08-0613.96
Observed price2026-08-1213.85
Observed price2026-09-0214.40
Observed price2026-09-1413.86
Observed price2026-09-1613.35
Observed price2026-09-1813.21
Published advisor forecast2026-06-0415.34
Published advisor forecast2026-09-0415.95
Published advisor forecast2026-12-0416.75
Published advisor forecast2027-03-0416.42
Published advisor forecast2027-06-0417.40
Published advisor forecast2027-09-0418.10
Published advisor forecast2027-12-0419.00
Published advisor forecast2028-03-0418.43
Published advisor forecast2028-06-0419.91
Published advisor forecast2028-09-0420.9
Published advisor forecast2028-12-0421.7
Published advisor forecast2029-03-0421.3
Published advisor forecast2029-06-0422.8
Published advisor forecast2029-09-0423.9
Published advisor forecast2029-12-0424.9
Published advisor forecast2030-03-0424.1
Published advisor forecast2030-06-0425.6
Published advisor forecast2030-09-0426.9
Published advisor forecast2030-12-0427.9
Published advisor forecast2031-03-0427.4
Published advisor forecast2031-06-0429.0

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The wonderful business achieves wonderful execution. Management successfully spins off or highlights , forcing a revaluation. Simultaneously, weaker EV competitors capitulate under high capital costs, handing Ford's hybrid models massive .

  • Market re-rates to a software/services multiple.
  • Hybrid models capture 50%+ of the 'bridge' market.
  • Lower rates eventually relieve Ford Credit pressure.

Bear case

The economic cycle proves too brutal for the to withstand. Sustained inflation, $120+ oil, and high rates combine to shatter consumer demand for profitable trucks, while UAW costs prevent margin flexibility.

  • Auto loan defaults spike, crushing Ford Motor Credit.
  • F-150 volume drops severely due to fuel costs and .
  • evaporates, forcing a devastating dividend cut.

Current crowd narrative

Mr. Market sees Ford as a —a dinosaur encumbered by cyclical peaks, a catastrophic EV transition, and massive nominal debt. The sell-side research is anchored to the massive GAAP net income losses of 2025 and terrified by higher interest rates compressing auto sales. The crowd universally assumes peak earnings are behind the company and is pricing the stock for , willfully ignoring the cash flow generation happening beneath the hood.

Alpha-gap assessment

The lies in a fundamental misinterpretation of Owner's Earnings. Mr. Market is punishing Ford for the $8 billion accounting net income loss in 2025 (driven by EV restructuring), while entirely ignoring the $12 billion in true the business generated. Furthermore, the market misprices the commercial business, evaluating it as a low-margin hardware vendor rather than a sticky, high- commercial franchise. At a ~19% , the is absolutely cavernous.

Convergence catalyst

The convergence catalyst will be three consecutive quarters of robust, standalone earnings coupled with aggressive, -funded shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks). When the market sees the EV cash bleed fully staunch and views the $12B as durable rather than a cyclical anomaly, the multiple must expand.

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