BBVA (BBVA.BME) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
Price-adjusted rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+60.8%
Includes 3.73% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that BBVA has become an outstanding bank at a price that already says so. The failed Sabadell bid released capital that management is returning aggressively, and a 22% ROTEreturn on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets.View full glossary entry with a 35% efficiency ratioefficiency ratioA key metric measuring non-interest expenses as a percentage of revenue; lower is better.View full glossary entry is genuinely best-in-class among European lenders. But at roughly 2.3x tangible book - against 0.6-1.0x only two years ago - the multiple already capitalises that return in perpetuity. Base case: earnings and buybacks do the work, the multiple slowly gives ground as cost of riskcost of riskCredit-loss expense relative to average loans or another defined exposure base, used to assess lending risk and profitability.View full glossary entry normalises, and holders earn a respectable rather than exceptional total return over five years.
- return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets. near 22% with a 50% payout compounds tangible book per share at low double digits.
- At about 2.3x tangible book the multiple discounts that return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets.; returns come from earnings, not rerating.
- EUR 36bn of planned distributions against a roughly EUR 136bn capitalisation equals about a quarter of value returned by 2028.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-15 | 5.70 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-20 | 5.49 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-05 | 5.77 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-26 | 5.69 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-31 | 6.20 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-10 | 6.07 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-25 | 5.07 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-30 | 4.80 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-10 | 5.14 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-26 | 5.20 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-15 | 5.77 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-25 | 5.48 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-09 | 6.05 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-14 | 5.87 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 4.56 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-12 | 5.06 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-17 | 5.37 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-16 | 5.08 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-27 | 4.82 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-02 | 4.92 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-07 | 4.58 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-27 | 5.06 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-16 | 4.21 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 4.38 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-12 | 4.10 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-22 | 4.14 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-06 | 4.64 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 4.86 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-27 | 4.44 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-06 | 4.59 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-16 | 4.96 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-01 | 4.64 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-22 | 5.06 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-01 | 5.22 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 5.35 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-21 | 5.51 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-01 | 5.60 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 5.37 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-06 | 6.21 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-11 | 6.29 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 6.67 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-10 | 6.77 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-26 | 7.21 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-03 | 7.32 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-18 | 6.19 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-02 | 6.31 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-17 | 6.81 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-28 | 6.78 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 6.27 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-28 | 6.20 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-07 | 6.57 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-23 | 6.65 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-03 | 7.08 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-08 | 6.86 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-28 | 7.31 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 6.83 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-12 | 7.19 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-28 | 7.32 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-07 | 6.95 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-22 | 7.45 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-12 | 7.79 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-22 | 7.44 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-07 | 7.82 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-12 | 7.99 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-02 | 8.57 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-07 | 8.47 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-28 | 8.19 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-07 | 8.58 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-17 | 8.10 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-27 | 8.28 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-11 | 9.23 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-21 | 9.33 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-13 | 10.13 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-18 | 10.43 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 11.03 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-28 | 10.92 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-03 | 9.80 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-08 | 10.13 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-28 | 9.82 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-07 | 9.81 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 9.16 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-28 | 9.27 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-18 | 9.90 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-23 | 10.16 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-02 | 8.83 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-02 | 9.53 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-07 | 8.91 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-12 | 9.12 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-27 | 9.86 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-07 | 9.41 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-22 | 9.04 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-02 | 9.47 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-12 | 8.89 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-27 | 8.81 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-12 | 9.68 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-22 | 9.30 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 10.20 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-17 | 10.39 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 11.56 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-11 | 11.75 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-27 | 12.94 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-24 | 13.39 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-29 | 12.63 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 10.74 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-23 | 12.27 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-29 | 12.32 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-19 | 13.57 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-24 | 13.37 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 13.03 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-29 | 12.80 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-09 | 13.58 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-19 | 12.71 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-03 | 14.78 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-18 | 16.46 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-29 | 15.49 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-03 | 15.47 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-13 | 16.30 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-13 | 15.97 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-18 | 17.06 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-23 | 16.91 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-13 | 18.71 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-18 | 17.61 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-08 | 18.94 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-13 | 19.32 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-03 | 20.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-08 | 20.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-23 | 21.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-02 | 21.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-12 | 19.23 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-28 | 19.33 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-20 | 18.08 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 18.21 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-14 | 19.62 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 19.65 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-05 | 18.43 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-15 | 18.91 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-30 | 20.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-09 | 19.25 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 21.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-15 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-25 | 23.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-30 | 24.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-14 | 24.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-24 | 24.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-04 | 25.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-17 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-18 | 24.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 24.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 25.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 25.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 24.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 25.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 26.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 27.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 26.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 27.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 28.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 28.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 29.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 27.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 28.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 29.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 29.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 30.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 31.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 31.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 32.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 33.0 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates if Mexican credit quality holds while the peso stabilises through the USMCA review. cost of riskCredit-loss expense relative to average loans or another defined exposure base, used to assess lending risk and profitability. stays inside guidance, allowing management to convert the full EUR 12bn excess-capital tranche into buybacks rather than provisions; the share count shrinks faster than modelled, EPS compounds in the mid-teens, and the 2.3x multiple is validated rather than compressed. Add a disciplined acquisition near book valuebook valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities.View full glossary entry and BBVA becomes the structurally re-rated European bank, delivering equity-like returns plus a growing dividend.
Bear case
The bear case begins where volume growth stops disguising margin decay. Loans grew 17.7% while impairments rose 35%; if those vintages sour as euro-area rates bite with a lag, cost of riskCredit-loss expense relative to average loans or another defined exposure base, used to assess lending risk and profitability. breaches 200bp, the excess-capital tranche is consumed by provisions and buybacks pause. A simultaneous peso devaluation on trade rupture would compress translated earnings and capital together, and a bank earning 14% return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets. does not command 2.3x tangible book. The de-rating would be swift and self-reinforcing.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief: BBVA is now a 22% return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets. distribution machine liberated from the Sabadell distraction, and the premium multiple is deserved. The stock trades above most sell-side targets after a 52-week high and a 23% year-to-date advance [14][15]. The anchoring bias is extrapolation - treating H1 2026's 17.7% loan growth and record profit as the new baseline rather than a late-cycle peak.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates what these shares are worth - not because the franchise is weak, but because the re-rating has already been paid for. At roughly 2.3x tangible book against 0.6-1.0x in 2020-2024, a Gordon-growth check with 22% return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets., 12% cost of equity and 4% growth justifies about 2.25x: fair, not cheap. The overlooked evidence is provisions rising 35% year-on-year alongside the loan surge [11], meaning the being capitalised into perpetuity is a cyclical high, not a structural constant.
Convergence catalyst
Watch the Q3 2026 print in late October and the FY2026 guidance that follows. The first observable sign of repricing is cost of riskCredit-loss expense relative to average loans or another defined exposure base, used to assess lending risk and profitability. guidance drifting above 150bp group-wide while loan growth decelerates toward the plan's 5% - the moment volume stops disguising margin normalisation and the multiple, not the earnings, adjusts.
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