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Walmart Inc. (WMT.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 11 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 3 May 2026Deep analysis 3 May 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

11 AI Advisor Reports

Select an advisor report.

J.P. Morgan AI

The Titan FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Strong Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+94.4%

Includes 1.11% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The base case thesis for Walmart is the coronation of an unstoppable infrastructure and data empire. Over the next five years, the alpha gap will close as the market realizes this is no longer a low-margin grocer, but a hyper-profitable digital toll bridge. The seamless transition from McMillon to Furner secures institutional permanence, while aggressive automation strips 30% out of shipping costs. Simultaneously, the Vizio acquisition supercharges Walmart Connect, injecting 70% margin advertising revenue directly into the bottom line. While tariffs and energy shocks will drag nominally, Walmart's absolute scale allows it to dictate pricing to suppliers and absorb the desperate, trading-down consumer. This is a fortress balance sheet compounding in a chaotic world.

Omnichannel fulfillment automation structurally lowers the SG&A floor, decoupling profit from labor inflation.
Walmart Connect scales into a top-tier media network, fundamentally altering the enterprise margin profile.
Monopsony power over suppliers forces them to eat the costs of the packaging and helium crunches.
Unprecedented $100+ crude oil bankrupts regional competitors, granting Walmart monopoly pricing in key markets.
The implied market capitalization easily supports tech-like multiples as software-level margins emerge from the retail chassis.
Consumer staples resilience acts as a defensive anchor while the advertising engine drives aggressive growth.

Historical prices and published forecast

Observed price
Published advisor forecast

Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.

View chart values

Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
Series	Date	Value (USD)
Observed price	2021-05-01	46.7
Observed price	2021-05-12	45.5
Observed price	2021-05-17	47.3
Observed price	2021-05-28	47.3
Observed price	2021-06-19	45.7
Observed price	2021-06-24	45.8
Observed price	2021-07-15	47.2
Observed price	2021-07-21	47.1
Observed price	2021-08-11	49.6
Observed price	2021-08-17	49.7
Observed price	2021-09-07	49.0
Observed price	2021-09-13	48.5
Observed price	2021-10-04	45.4
Observed price	2021-10-09	46.6
Observed price	2021-10-31	49.9
Observed price	2021-11-05	50.0
Observed price	2021-11-16	47.5
Observed price	2021-12-08	46.5
Observed price	2021-12-13	47.4
Observed price	2022-01-14	48.2
Observed price	2022-01-19	47.0
Observed price	2022-02-05	46.5
Observed price	2022-02-15	45.3
Observed price	2022-02-26	45.7
Observed price	2022-03-14	48.4
Observed price	2022-03-25	47.9
Observed price	2022-04-05	51.4
Observed price	2022-04-21	52.5
Observed price	2022-05-07	50.8
Observed price	2022-05-12	47.6
Observed price	2022-05-23	41.1
Observed price	2022-06-13	39.9
Observed price	2022-06-30	41.0
Observed price	2022-07-05	41.4
Observed price	2022-07-21	44.0
Observed price	2022-08-06	42.9
Observed price	2022-08-17	46.1
Observed price	2022-09-02	44.1
Observed price	2022-09-13	45.5
Observed price	2022-10-04	44.5
Observed price	2022-10-10	43.1
Observed price	2022-10-20	45.0
Observed price	2022-11-11	47.6
Observed price	2022-11-16	49.3
Observed price	2022-11-27	50.8
Observed price	2022-12-13	48.6
Observed price	2022-12-29	47.4
Observed price	2023-01-09	48.5
Observed price	2023-01-20	47.2
Observed price	2023-02-05	47.2
Observed price	2023-02-16	48.7
Observed price	2023-03-09	45.8
Observed price	2023-03-25	47.3
Observed price	2023-03-31	48.7
Observed price	2023-04-21	50.3
Observed price	2023-04-26	50.3
Observed price	2023-05-12	50.9
Observed price	2023-05-29	49.0
Observed price	2023-06-14	51.6
Observed price	2023-06-30	51.6
Observed price	2023-07-05	52.3
Observed price	2023-07-16	51.6
Observed price	2023-08-06	53.5
Observed price	2023-08-23	52.6
Observed price	2023-09-02	54.3
Observed price	2023-09-13	54.8
Observed price	2023-09-29	53.3
Observed price	2023-10-10	52.8
Observed price	2023-10-26	53.7
Observed price	2023-11-11	55.4
Observed price	2023-11-22	51.9
Observed price	2023-11-27	52.1
Observed price	2023-12-08	50.4
Observed price	2023-12-24	52.1
Observed price	2024-01-15	53.9
Observed price	2024-01-20	54.2
Observed price	2024-02-10	56.7
Observed price	2024-02-16	56.9
Observed price	2024-03-08	61.0
Observed price	2024-03-14	61.0
Observed price	2024-04-04	59.6
Observed price	2024-04-09	60.6
Observed price	2024-05-01	59.7
Observed price	2024-05-12	60.1
Observed price	2024-05-28	65.6
Observed price	2024-06-02	66.4
Observed price	2024-06-18	67.6
Observed price	2024-06-29	67.5
Observed price	2024-07-21	70.7
Observed price	2024-08-06	67.7
Observed price	2024-08-16	73.8
Observed price	2024-08-22	75.4
Observed price	2024-09-12	80.4
Observed price	2024-09-18	78.4
Observed price	2024-09-28	81.3
Observed price	2024-10-14	80.6
Observed price	2024-11-05	83.3
Observed price	2024-11-10	84.7
Observed price	2024-12-02	93.3
Observed price	2024-12-13	94.2
Observed price	2024-12-29	91.5
Observed price	2025-01-03	90.5
Observed price	2025-01-25	95.3
Observed price	2025-02-10	103
Observed price	2025-02-20	97.1
Observed price	2025-02-26	96.1
Observed price	2025-03-14	85.4
Observed price	2025-03-25	85.3
Observed price	2025-04-15	93.1
Observed price	2025-04-20	94.7
Observed price	2025-05-07	98.0
Observed price	2025-05-23	96.1
Observed price	2025-06-02	98.9
Observed price	2025-06-13	95.5
Observed price	2025-06-29	97.8
Observed price	2025-07-10	94.9
Observed price	2025-08-01	98.5
Observed price	2025-08-06	103
Observed price	2025-08-27	96.7
Observed price	2025-09-02	99.1
Observed price	2025-09-18	104
Observed price	2025-10-04	102
Observed price	2025-10-15	109
Observed price	2025-10-25	105
Observed price	2025-10-31	101
Observed price	2025-11-21	103
Observed price	2025-12-13	116
Observed price	2025-12-24	111
Observed price	2026-01-09	116
Observed price	2026-01-25	118
Observed price	2026-02-04	128
Observed price	2026-02-15	128
Observed price	2026-03-03	124
Observed price	2026-03-19	119
Observed price	2026-03-30	125
Observed price	2026-04-15	125
Observed price	2026-04-21	130
Observed price	2026-05-18	134
Observed price	2026-05-23	124
Observed price	2026-05-28	117
Observed price	2026-06-08	120
Observed price	2026-06-24	118
Observed price	2026-07-05	111
Observed price	2026-07-21	110
Observed price	2026-08-11	116
Observed price	2026-08-17	115
Observed price	2026-08-28	103
Observed price	2026-09-10	106
Observed price	2026-09-14	109
Published advisor forecast	2026-05-01	132
Published advisor forecast	2026-08-01	137
Published advisor forecast	2026-11-01	144
Published advisor forecast	2027-02-01	148
Published advisor forecast	2027-05-01	151
Published advisor forecast	2027-08-01	157
Published advisor forecast	2027-11-01	162
Published advisor forecast	2028-02-01	167
Published advisor forecast	2028-05-01	170
Published advisor forecast	2028-08-01	177
Published advisor forecast	2028-11-01	182
Published advisor forecast	2029-02-01	187
Published advisor forecast	2029-05-01	191
Published advisor forecast	2029-08-01	199
Published advisor forecast	2029-11-01	205
Published advisor forecast	2030-02-01	211
Published advisor forecast	2030-05-01	215
Published advisor forecast	2030-08-01	222
Published advisor forecast	2030-11-01	231
Published advisor forecast	2031-02-01	237
Published advisor forecast	2031-05-01	242

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case unleashes the full, terrifying power of the Walmart empire. If the Vizio integration flawlessly captures the connected-TV advertising market, Walmart Connect will rival Amazon, triggering a violent multiple expansion. The subscale grocer extinction event accelerates, leaving Walmart as the undisputed sole provider in vast swaths of the continent. Operating leverage compounds exponentially as the 65% automation target is exceeded ahead of schedule.

Vizio data integration creates an impenetrable, closed-loop advertising monopoly.
Automation eliminates supply chain inefficiencies, sending free cash flow to record highs.
Regional grocers collapse under , handing Walmart free, permanent market share.
The market completely abandons legacy retail P/E metrics, valuing Walmart as a technology platform.

Bear case

The bear case materializes if the empire overreaches and the macro environment breaks the consumer completely. A severe stagflationary depression where energy costs exceed $120 forces the consumer to abandon all general merchandise, leaving Walmart to survive on zero-margin staples. Simultaneously, aggressive antitrust action severs the advertising arm, trapping the company in its legacy retail shell.

The FTC successfully attacks Walmart Connect, destroying the high-margin narrative.
Protracted $120+ oil obliterates discretionary spending, causing massive volume deleverage in stores.
50% tariff enforcement wipes out the profitability of the imported center-store goods.
Costco's relentless expansion permanently impairs Walmart's grip on the higher-income demographic.

Current crowd narrative

The noisy market sees a defensive grocer suffering fractional market-share bleed to Costco. They view the recent Vizio acquisition as a clumsy hardware play and worry that tariffs and $110+ oil will crush retail margins. The crowd treats Walmart as a mere survival vehicle in a war-torn economy, anchoring their bias to legacy retail P/E multiples rather than acknowledging the underlying structural pivot toward technology and media.

Alpha-gap assessment

The variant perception is stark: Walmart is no longer a traditional retailer; it is a high-margin data and logistics . The market completely misprices the leverage of the Vizio integration, which catapults Walmart Connect's 70% margin ad revenue into the stratosphere. Simultaneously, the crowd ignores that over 50% of WMT's ecommerce fulfillment is now automated, permanently compressing shipping costs by 30%. While the market prices a low-margin grocer battling stagflation, I see an expanding advertising and infrastructure empire extracting monopoly rents from its ecosystem.

Convergence catalyst

Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings will serve as the violent inflection point. When Walmart Connect's ad revenue posts sustained 50%+ YoY growth—bolstered by Vizio's screens—and fulfillment automation visibly widens operating margins despite peak , the market will be forced to rerate this asset as a tech-enabled platform.

Paywalled preview begins: Macro-regime alignment

From this section to the end-of-preview notice below, research is provided as simplified HTML text and tables. Full access provides the complete interactive interface, charts and additional datasets.

Sentiment and regime

Greed and fear sentiment: 0.2
Expected volatility regime: low_steady
Convergence-cycle position: growing_awareness

Primary drivers

Primary drivers supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
HIGH Margin Media Ecosystem	The successful absorption of Vizio is a masterstroke of imperial expansion. This is not about selling televisions; it is a ruthless data acquisition to scale Walmart Connect. By integrating 18 million SmartCast users, Walmart commands a high-margin (70%+) advertising juggernaut that recently posted 53% revenue growth. This entirely rewires the empire's profit architecture, migrating it from razor-thin grocery margins to a hyper-profitable digital toll bridge that brands must pay to cross to reach the consumer.	Not available%	+22.0%
Omnichannel Fulfillment Automation Engin	Walmart is aggressively weaponizing its capital expenditure to automate its dominion. With over 60% of U.S. stores receiving freight from automated centers and half of e-commerce fulfillment mechanized, shipping costs have structurally collapsed by 30%. This is a widening, capital-intensive moat that subscale competitors cannot replicate. I strongly believe this infrastructure chokepoint permanently lowers the floor on SG&A, ensuring that even in a highly inflationary labor regime, Walmart's operating leverage expands relentlessly. The sheer scale of this robotics integration is terrifying to rivals.	Not available%	+18.0%
Stagflationary Downtrade Capture	In a brutal regime of $110+ crude oil and rampant goods inflation, scale is the ultimate weapon. As the consumer breaks under the weight of the Hormuz energy shock, higher-income cohorts inevitably trade down to Walmart. The empire's record 72% U.S. household penetration is a testament to its absolute pricing power and default-option status. I see this macro friction crushing weaker retailers, funneling a captive, distressed consumer base directly into Walmart's ever-expanding ecosystem.	Not available%	+15.0%
Supplier Chokepoint Dominion	Walmart does not negotiate; it dictates. Through AI-powered vendor managed inventory (VMI) and autonomous negotiation software, Walmart has cemented absolute control over its supply chain. In an environment of raw material scarcity and packaging stress, Walmart forces suppliers to absorb the pain, extending payment terms and extracting margin concessions. This is raw monopsony power at work. The empire sets the price, and the vassals comply or die, shielding Walmart's gross margins from inflation.	Not available%	+10.0%

Primary frictions

Primary frictions supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Tariff Induced General Merchandise DRAG	The administration's aggressive trade posture, including 50% tariff threats, acts as a massive tax on Walmart's highly profitable general merchandise segment. While groceries drive foot traffic, cheap imported goods drive margins. Re-routing Asian supply chains and absorbing import frictions will structurally compress gross margins in discretionary categories. I am deeply concerned that prolonged tariff warfare will inevitably erode the profitability of the center-store.	Not available%	-12.0%
Energy Shock Logistics TAX	An empire built on physical distribution bleeds when the cost of movement spikes. With Brent crude violently surpassing $100 amidst the Hormuz blockade, Walmart's massive trucking fleet and last-mile delivery architecture face severe operational friction. While automation offsets some costs, the sheer physics of moving goods across the continent in a hyper-inflationary energy regime acts as a persistent, unyielding drag on free cash flow generation over the five-year horizon.	Not available%	-10.0%
Warehouse CLUB Encroachment	Even empires have borders under siege. Costco's relentless expansion, currently absorbing 8.2% of the grocery and CPG market, poses a direct threat to Walmart's higher-margin bulk purchaser. Costco's ruthless subscription model and concentrated SKU strategy siphon off the most lucrative, predictable shopping trips. This structural encroachment forces Walmart to aggressively defend its flanks via Sam's Club, diluting focus and demanding continuous capital deployment to match Costco's value proposition.	Not available%	-8.0%
WAGE Inflation Permanence	Managing an army of 2.1 million associates in a structurally tight, stagflationary labor market requires constant appeasement. Rising base wages, benefits expansion, and unionization threats represent a permanent step-up in SG&A. Despite aggressive automation efforts, Walmart remains uniquely exposed to the raw cost of human capital. This sticky wage inflation acts as a heavy anchor, continuously dragging against the margin expansion achieved by digital and logistical efficiencies.	Not available%	-6.0%

Tail opportunities

Tail opportunities supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Walmart Connect Hyper Scaling	The Vizio acquisition catalyzes a data revolution within Walmart Connect, transforming it from a mere retail media network into a dominant, standalone digital advertising titan. If Walmart successfully merges its unmatched point-of-sale data with Vizio's 18 million SmartCast screens, it creates a closed-loop attribution monopoly that rivals Amazon and Meta. This triggers a massive structural rerating, as investors revalue the stock not on low grocery margins, but on the 70% margins of a captive, targeted media ecosystem.	35.0%	+18.0%
Subscale Competitor Extinction	The convergence of $110 oil, packaging shortages, and sticky wage inflation triggers a mass extinction event among highly leveraged regional grocers and subscale discount chains. As these weaker players inevitably file for bankruptcy, Walmart deploys its massive balance sheet to aggressively acquire abandoned real estate and absorb stranded consumer bases at distressed prices. This rapid consolidation artificially accelerates market share capture, permanently widening the moat.	45.0%	+12.0%

Tail risks

Tail risks supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
FTC Structural Breakup Mandate	Driven by populist anti-monopoly fervor, the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice launch a coordinated assault to dismantle Walmart's vertical integration. A forced divestiture of the high-growth Walmart Connect advertising business or a mandate breaking apart the retail and logistics arms would instantly destroy the empire's synergistic profit engine. This doomsday regulatory event would strip the stock of its platform premium, violently repricing it as a fragmented grocer.	15.0%	-25.0%
Stagflationary Consumer Collapse	The macro environment devolves into a severe, protracted stagflationary depression triggered by sustained $120+ crude and geopolitical blockades. In this scenario, the highly touted trade-down effect fails because lower- and middle-income consumers simply stop buying anything beyond bare-bones caloric survival. General merchandise sales evaporate completely, and the sheer volume deleverage across Walmart's massive physical footprint obliterates operating margins.	25.0%	-18.0%

Step-by-step forecast path

J.P. Morgan forecast path for prediction task predrqst_batch_task__xrefsubjtskconf_40904b5b-0c17-5bc2-8745-b1590c7dd33f__sb4__20260503161750
Step	Forecast date	Step change	Projected value (USD)	Scenario rationale
1	August 1, 2026	+4.0%	136.86	- The Hormuz energy shock accelerates flight-to-safety capital flows directly into Walmart. - High inflation prints confirm the trade-down narrative as higher-income cohorts shift grocery spend. - Early automation metrics from Q2 earnings validate structural cost reductions.
2	November 1, 2026	+5.0%	143.71	- Q3 earnings reveal the first massive revenue spike from Walmart Connect following Vizio integration. - Holiday spending concentrates at Walmart as competitors pass through brutal tariff and packaging costs. - The market begins to digest the structural margin expansion narrative.
3	February 1, 2027	+3.0%	148.02	- John Furner completes his first full year as CEO with flawless execution, cementing institutional permanence. - Supply chain chokepoint dominion allows Walmart to aggressively squeeze suppliers on Q1 inventory. - Dividend hikes and buybacks authorized by the board reflect immense free cash flow.
4	May 1, 2027	+2.0%	150.98	- A minor macro drag as peak stagflation slightly compresses center-store general merchandise margins. - Costco's aggressive push into new markets creates localized friction. - Despite headwinds, the advertising engine continues to buffer the bottom line.
5	August 1, 2027	+4.0%	157.02	- Walmart announces it has surpassed its 65% automation goal, sending shipping costs to all-time lows. - Competitor bankruptcies in the regional grocery space accelerate market share capture. - The stock rerates as analysts upgrade target multiples based on tech-like margin components.
6	November 1, 2027	+3.0%	161.73	- Walmart Connect commands a dominant share of the Connected TV advertising market. - Private label sales (Great Value, Onn) hit record highs, insulating gross margins from persistent commodity inflation. - The empire demonstrates unyielding pricing power heading into the holiday season.
7	February 1, 2028	+3.0%	166.58	- Year-end earnings validate the variant perception: non-retail revenue is driving net income. - E-commerce grocery penetration entrenches the digital moat against Amazon's physical incursions. - Capital allocation pivots aggressively toward further share repurchases.
8	May 1, 2028	+2.0%	169.91	- Wage inflation pressures SG&A as labor unions test Walmart's resolve in distribution centers. - FTC scrutiny yields minor concessions, slightly spooking short-term momentum traders. - The core business remains an untouchable fortress of cash generation.
9	August 1, 2028	+4.0%	176.71	- A new wave of AI-driven supply chain efficiencies drops directly to the bottom line. - Walmart expands its healthcare and pharmacy dominion, creating another sticky consumer touchpoint. - Margin expansion forces short-sellers to capitulate.
10	November 1, 2028	+3.0%	182.01	- Q3 earnings crush consensus estimates as digital ad revenue compounds at 30%+ annually. - The competitive landscape is decimated; Walmart operates as a monopoly in vast rural and suburban tracts. - Investor sentiment shifts firmly to greedy accumulation.
11	February 1, 2029	+3.0%	187.47	- The board announces a massive dividend increase, signaling peak cash flow maturity. - International segments report stabilized profitability after years of restructuring. - The stock acts as the ultimate safe-haven asset in a globally fragmented trade regime.
12	May 1, 2029	+2.0%	191.22	- Cyclical rotation into higher-beta tech temporarily stalls Walmart's multiple expansion. - Discretionary digital sales face stiff competition from specialized e-commerce platforms. - Management focuses on integrating next-gen robotics into the last-mile delivery fleet.
13	August 1, 2029	+4.0%	198.87	- Breakthroughs in autonomous middle-mile logistics drastically reduce reliance on human trucking. - Walmart Connect announces a major data partnership, cementing its status as an advertising oligopoly member. - Profit margins hit historic highs for the retail sector.
14	November 1, 2029	+3.0%	204.83	- Holiday sales mix heavily favors high-margin private label electronics and apparel. - The consumer is fully captive to the Walmart ecosystem for daily necessities and financial services. - Shareholder equity continues its relentless upward march.
15	February 1, 2030	+3.0%	210.98	- Q4 results prove the empire's dominion is absolute; market share metrics show structural dominance over Costco. - Free cash flow yield remains highly attractive relative to Treasury alternatives. - Management teases the next decade of strategic infrastructure investments.
16	May 1, 2030	+2.0%	215.20	- Minor regulatory friction as global authorities investigate data privacy within the ad network. - Modest top-line growth as the law of large numbers sets in, but bottom-line growth remains robust. - The stock consolidates at elevated levels.
17	August 1, 2030	+3.0%	221.65	- Walmart unveils a fully automated, dark-store fulfillment architecture for urban centers. - Margin expansion resumes as legacy physical retail costs are ruthlessly excised. - The empire proves it can out-innovate pure-play digital competitors.
18	November 1, 2030	+4.0%	230.52	- Advertising revenue surpasses 15% of total operating income, a monumental pivot for the business model. - Holiday season dominance is uncontested; Walmart is the sole surviving mega-retailer in key verticals. - Institutional investors command a dynasty premium.
19	February 1, 2031	+3.0%	237.44	- The five-year thesis is fully validated; Walmart is recognized as a media-logistics hybrid. - Dividend compounding and relentless buybacks have massively enriched long-term holders. - The balance sheet is impregnable.
20	May 1, 2031	+2.0%	242.19	- Stable, sovereign-level growth. The empire surveys its conquered territory. - Competitors are either vassals or extinct. - Final horizon period confirms the Titan's assessment: total dominion achieved.

Advisor and configuration

Advisor: jp_morgan__the_titan__google_gemini_3_pro__20251119_preview_release
Persona: J.P. Morgan
Archetype: The Titan
Model: (November 19, 2025) Preview Release
Provider: Google
Mode: RESEARCHER (Web Search Enabled) with High Reasoning and Standard Creativity
Task configuration: jp_morgan__the_titan__google_gemini_3_pro__20251119_preview_release__equity__json__extnd_invest_thesis_4q_alphassym__ts_num_desc__h5y_s3m__var1__researcher__standard_creativity_high_thinking__batch
Forecast horizon: 5 year
Forecast steps: 20 steps of 3 month
Assembly type: Balanced Assembly
Assembly name: jp_morgan__the_titan__google_gemini_3_pro__20251119_preview_release RESEARCHER Forecast Assembly
Input format: inmemory_base_placeholders__latest_eod_close_price_with_stats__var2
Output format: Equity Extended Investment Thesis (4 Quadrants and Alpha Asymmetry) + Pct Change Timeseries for Close Price with Rationale, (5Y Quarterly)

Read the complete J.P. Morgan advisor methodology

Configuration components

aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa (subject_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_efec62e4-24c0-556a-8070-775c69b97643 (global_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa (subject_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_8115cc2a-d418-54b1-a616-49dfa91195f4 (task_guidelines)

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