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Toast Inc (TOST.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 11 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 3 May 2026Deep analysis 3 May 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

11 AI Advisor Reports

Select an advisor report.

Michael Burry AI

The Vulture FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+141.6%

TOST.NYSE does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The Vulture sees a dollar bill selling for 65 cents. Toast will traverse the 2026 restaurant apocalypse with bruised volume but intact structural dominance. While the energy shock and consumer squeeze will inevitably force marginal restaurants into liquidation—causing an optical spike in location churn—inflating menu prices will shield Toast's nominal GPV. The company's $2 billion cash fortress and $608 million in free cash flow provide absolute downside protection against terminal ruin.

In H2 2026, negative consumer headlines and headline restaurant bankruptcies will exert immense friction on the multiple.
By 2027, as legacy competitors capitulate and Toast captures resilient QSR/Enterprise , the market will recognize the durability of its ARR.
The 'Productive Dovishness' macro regime will reward TOST's automation tools (Toast IQ) as restaurants desperately replace labor with software.
Relentless share buybacks utilizing the $500M authorization will mathematically accrete per-share value while the crowd remains sidelined.
The implied valuation normalizes back toward a premium software multiple (roughly $25B-$30B market cap) as exceeds $1.2B by 2030, a highly realistic trajectory for an entrenched vertical monopoly.

Historical prices and published forecast

Observed price
Published advisor forecast

Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.

View chart values

Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
Series	Date	Value (USD)
Observed price	2021-09-22	62.5
Observed price	2021-09-30	50.0
Observed price	2021-10-20	51.0
Observed price	2021-11-05	59.0
Observed price	2021-11-09	60.8
Observed price	2021-11-25	43.2
Observed price	2021-12-07	39.6
Observed price	2021-12-15	33.4
Observed price	2021-12-27	39.0
Observed price	2022-01-16	24.7
Observed price	2022-01-28	20.4
Observed price	2022-02-09	27.9
Observed price	2022-02-13	27.5
Observed price	2022-03-05	17.66
Observed price	2022-03-13	16.72
Observed price	2022-03-29	21.6
Observed price	2022-04-02	23.2
Observed price	2022-04-22	18.80
Observed price	2022-04-26	18.96
Observed price	2022-05-16	13.90
Observed price	2022-05-24	14.37
Observed price	2022-05-28	16.45
Observed price	2022-06-17	13.12
Observed price	2022-06-25	15.04
Observed price	2022-07-15	13.99
Observed price	2022-07-27	15.05
Observed price	2022-07-31	15.92
Observed price	2022-08-16	20.6
Observed price	2022-09-05	18.37
Observed price	2022-09-09	21.4
Observed price	2022-09-17	19.12
Observed price	2022-10-03	16.61
Observed price	2022-10-11	17.22
Observed price	2022-10-31	22.1
Observed price	2022-11-12	20.6
Observed price	2022-11-20	18.21
Observed price	2022-12-06	16.72
Observed price	2022-12-14	19.77
Observed price	2022-12-26	17.27
Observed price	2023-01-11	19.24
Observed price	2023-01-19	19.28
Observed price	2023-02-04	23.7
Observed price	2023-02-12	23.6
Observed price	2023-02-28	18.92
Observed price	2023-03-08	19.14
Observed price	2023-03-24	16.23
Observed price	2023-03-28	16.24
Observed price	2023-04-13	17.97
Observed price	2023-04-25	17.25
Observed price	2023-05-11	20.8
Observed price	2023-05-15	19.43
Observed price	2023-06-04	21.7
Observed price	2023-06-12	23.2
Observed price	2023-06-24	21.6
Observed price	2023-07-18	26.8
Observed price	2023-07-22	22.1
Observed price	2023-08-07	20.4
Observed price	2023-08-11	24.1
Observed price	2023-08-31	22.2
Observed price	2023-09-08	20.8
Observed price	2023-09-12	21.2
Observed price	2023-10-02	18.32
Observed price	2023-10-10	18.05
Observed price	2023-10-26	16.25
Observed price	2023-11-03	17.49
Observed price	2023-11-11	14.01
Observed price	2023-11-23	14.11
Observed price	2023-12-13	16.07
Observed price	2023-12-17	17.03
Observed price	2023-12-25	18.36
Observed price	2024-01-10	19.10
Observed price	2024-01-22	17.21
Observed price	2024-02-03	18.55
Observed price	2024-02-19	21.9
Observed price	2024-02-27	22.1
Observed price	2024-03-06	24.9
Observed price	2024-03-30	24.6
Observed price	2024-04-07	23.2
Observed price	2024-04-19	21.6
Observed price	2024-04-27	23.9
Observed price	2024-05-13	27.0
Observed price	2024-05-29	23.6
Observed price	2024-06-10	22.6
Observed price	2024-06-22	25.6
Observed price	2024-07-12	25.2
Observed price	2024-07-16	27.3
Observed price	2024-07-20	27.3
Observed price	2024-08-09	23.6
Observed price	2024-08-17	24.8
Observed price	2024-08-25	24.1
Observed price	2024-09-06	23.3
Observed price	2024-09-22	27.7
Observed price	2024-10-12	28.3
Observed price	2024-10-20	29.8
Observed price	2024-10-24	30.0
Observed price	2024-11-13	39.9
Observed price	2024-11-29	43.5
Observed price	2024-12-07	38.6
Observed price	2024-12-15	38.5
Observed price	2024-12-19	35.9
Observed price	2025-01-12	35.3
Observed price	2025-01-24	39.3
Observed price	2025-01-28	40.0
Observed price	2025-02-17	41.6
Observed price	2025-03-01	38.0
Observed price	2025-03-13	32.6
Observed price	2025-03-25	36.4
Observed price	2025-04-06	30.6
Observed price	2025-04-10	33.4
Observed price	2025-04-26	36.0
Observed price	2025-05-04	35.9
Observed price	2025-05-16	44.7
Observed price	2025-06-09	43.5
Observed price	2025-06-13	41.5
Observed price	2025-06-25	41.5
Observed price	2025-07-07	44.8
Observed price	2025-07-15	44.3
Observed price	2025-08-04	49.3
Observed price	2025-08-20	42.4
Observed price	2025-08-28	45.0
Observed price	2025-09-01	44.1
Observed price	2025-09-21	39.7
Observed price	2025-10-11	35.3
Observed price	2025-10-15	37.2
Observed price	2025-10-27	38.9
Observed price	2025-11-04	35.6
Observed price	2025-11-12	38.3
Observed price	2025-11-20	32.6
Observed price	2025-12-14	35.0
Observed price	2025-12-22	37.3
Observed price	2026-01-07	36.7
Observed price	2026-01-19	33.0
Observed price	2026-01-23	33.8
Observed price	2026-02-12	26.1
Observed price	2026-02-24	25.6
Observed price	2026-03-08	29.8
Observed price	2026-03-16	28.1
Observed price	2026-03-28	25.8
Observed price	2026-04-09	26.0
Observed price	2026-04-17	29.1
Observed price	2026-05-07	29.4
Observed price	2026-05-15	23.1
Observed price	2026-05-23	23.2
Observed price	2026-05-31	27.2
Observed price	2026-06-20	24.5
Observed price	2026-07-06	29.5
Observed price	2026-07-22	29.2
Observed price	2026-07-30	32.9
Observed price	2026-08-03	32.8
Observed price	2026-08-23	36.7
Observed price	2026-08-27	35.2
Observed price	2026-09-15	31.8
Observed price	2026-09-16	31.1
Observed price	2026-09-18	29.7
Published advisor forecast	2026-05-01	29.1
Published advisor forecast	2026-08-01	26.8
Published advisor forecast	2026-11-01	30.0
Published advisor forecast	2027-02-01	33.0
Published advisor forecast	2027-05-01	35.0
Published advisor forecast	2027-08-01	36.7
Published advisor forecast	2027-11-01	39.7
Published advisor forecast	2028-02-01	42.0
Published advisor forecast	2028-05-01	43.7
Published advisor forecast	2028-08-01	45.9
Published advisor forecast	2028-11-01	48.7
Published advisor forecast	2029-02-01	51.1
Published advisor forecast	2029-05-01	53.1
Published advisor forecast	2029-08-01	54.7
Published advisor forecast	2029-11-01	52.0
Published advisor forecast	2030-02-01	55.6
Published advisor forecast	2030-05-01	58.4
Published advisor forecast	2030-08-01	60.8
Published advisor forecast	2030-11-01	63.8
Published advisor forecast	2031-02-01	67.6
Published advisor forecast	2031-05-01	70.3

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The consumer shock is shallower than feared, and the enterprise (QSR) rollout accelerates violently. The core lie—that Toast cannot penetrate the enterprise—is shattered.

Major tier-one fast-food chains abandon legacy NCR/Aloha systems for Toast's cloud-native architecture.
SaaS margins expand structurally as AI automation modules achieve ubiquitous attachment rates.
M&A deployment of the $2 billion cash pile secures dominant market share in the UK and Europe.
The combination of 30%+ EPS compounding and multiple expansion drives the equity back toward its 2021 IPO-era highs.

Bear case

The 2026 triggers a deep, entrenched recession that fundamentally alters US dining culture.

A historic wave of SME restaurant insolvencies overwhelms gross location additions, sending net locations and into terminal contraction.
Consumer foot traffic craters, breaking the nominal GPV hedge.
Persistent hardware tariffs compress unit onboarding economics, destroying the payback period on new client acquisition.
The stock crashes to its cash-adjusted liquidation value in the low teens as it is permanently re-rated as a decaying financial processor.

Current crowd narrative

The noisy market currently prices Toast as a leveraged, high-beta derivative of consumer discretionary dining. The consensus trade assumes that the 2026 Hormuz energy shock and surging stagflation will annihilate the independent restaurant sector, triggering a wave of bankruptcies that will decimate Toast's location count and crater its Gross Payment Volume (GPV). Financial media classifies TOST as a vulnerable consumer-adjacent trap, anchoring on macro fear rather than bottom-up unit economics, leading to panic dumping of the equity.

Alpha-gap assessment

The variant perception isolates a critical misunderstanding of Toast's economic architecture. The crowd views Toast as a bet on restaurant prosperity; it is actually a tax on restaurant survival. The market systematically ignores that TOST's GPV scales with nominal menu inflation, creating an automatic revenue hedge against food-cost spikes. More crucially, the crowd is blinding itself to the hard floor: Toast generated $608 million in in 2025 and holds $2 billion in net cash. The market is pricing insolvency risk into an overcapitalized, -compounding monopoly.

Convergence catalyst

The Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings reports will serve as the undeniable truth-forcing mechanisms. When Toast reports that nominal GPV has been buoyed by menu inflation, and that continues to expand despite an elevated rate of marginal restaurant closures, the 'death spiral' narrative will fracture.

Paywalled preview begins: Macro-regime alignment

From this section to the end-of-preview notice below, research is provided as simplified HTML text and tables. Full access provides the complete interactive interface, charts and additional datasets.

Sentiment and regime

Greed and fear sentiment: -0.8
Expected volatility regime: high_erratic
Convergence-cycle position: stabilization

Primary drivers

Primary drivers supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
FREE CASH FLOW Fortress	The foundation of the forensic bull thesis is liquidity. Toast ended 2025 with approximately $2 billion in cash and marketable securities against zero structural debt [1.2]. More critically, it generated $608 million in free cash flow, doubling its 2024 output. In a liquidity-constrained macro regime, this war chest entirely eliminates insolvency risk and funds a $500 million share repurchase program, providing a rigid structural floor beneath the equity.	Not available%	+25.0%
Nominal Inflation Capture	The market misunderstands Toast's revenue sensitivity. As an integrated fintech processor handling $195.1 billion in Gross Payment Volume, Toast is inherently insulated against inflation. As restaurants aggressively hike menu prices to offset soaring input costs, Toast's nominal take-rate yields higher absolute fintech gross profit without corresponding OPEX expansion, creating a mechanical inflation hedge.	Not available%	+20.0%
Enterprise QSR Expansion	Historically reliant on independent SMEs, Toast is executing a calculated pivot upmarket into the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) and enterprise sector. The deployment of drive-thru optimization modules and advanced enterprise architectures intercepts a massive, cycle-resilient TAM currently serviced by decaying legacy incumbents.	Not available%	+18.0%
Mission Critical Switching Costs	A Point-of-Sale (POS) and restaurant management system acts as the digital central nervous system of an operator. The operational friction, retrenchment costs, and downtime required to rip out hardware and retrain staff mid-cycle creates prohibitive switching costs. This structural lock-in ensures low enterprise churn even amid severe macroeconomic distress.	Not available%	+15.0%

Primary frictions

Primary frictions supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Smeinsolvencywave	The2026stagflationaryshockistriggeringanextinctioneventformarginalindependentrestaurants.WiththeUSrestaurantsectoralreadyexperiencingahistoricwaveofChapter11filingsduetomargincompression[1.11], net location additions are structurally threatened by an exogenous spike in involuntary venue liquidations.	Not available%	-15.0%
Consumer Discretionary Contraction	The Hormuz-driven $119/bbl energy shock is mechanically destroying lower-middle-income consumer discretionary capacity. The resulting contraction in restaurant foot traffic (already down >3% in late 2025) exerts downward pressure on real GPV per location, threatening fintech revenue velocity.	Not available%	-12.0%
SAAS Multiple BETA Exposure	Despite vertical dominance, TOST trades with high covariance to the broader software infrastructure complex. In the 'Warsh Shock' regime of higher-for-longer yields and Warsh-era balance sheet unwinds, the discount rate applied to out-year cash flows compresses the terminal valuation multiple across the entire SaaS cohort.	Not available%	-10.0%
Hardware Tariff Compression	The aggressive trade weaponization and expanded tariff regime in 2026 acts as a direct tax on Toast's hardware supply chain. Management has already flagged memory chip costs and tariffs as generating approximately 150 basis points of explicit margin pressure, degrading the unit economics of new location onboarding.	Not available%	-8.0%

Tail opportunities

Tail opportunities supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Distressed M&a Consolidation	Armed with a $2 billion liquid war chest [1.2] and an industry in turmoil, Toast executes a fire-sale acquisition of a distressed legacy POS incumbent or a European competitor. This instantly acquires dense location networks at trough valuations, accelerating international or enterprise penetration without the friction of organic customer acquisition.	35.0%	+18.0%
Proprietary Credit Underwriting	Leveraging its real-time visibility into $195 billion of GPV, Toast successfully scales a proprietary working-capital lending operation (Toast Capital). In a credit-starved macro environment, Toast effectively replaces regional banks for restaurant financing, creating a highly accretive, non-SaaS revenue stream protected by automated repayment withholding.	45.0%	+14.0%

Tail risks

Tail risks supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Statutory Interchange CAPS	Populist US legislative action or CFPB intervention imposes strict statutory ceilings on credit card interchange and payment processing fees. This directly decapitates the fintech gross profit engine, structurally and permanently impairing Toast's primary monetization vehicle.	15.0%	-40.0%
Systemic Independent Extinction	The stagflationary shock triggers a prolonged, unmitigated death spiral for SME restaurants. Involuntary churn mathematically outpaces gross location additions, causing the $2.04 billion Annualized Recurring Run-rate (ARR) [1.2] to collapse. Growth goes negative, forcing the market to re-rate TOST from a growth-software multiple to a distressed financial multiple.	25.0%	-35.0%

Step-by-step forecast path

Michael Burry forecast path for prediction task predrqst_batch_task__xrefsubjtskconf_6c37d637-314a-5e7b-b742-601d4bd296d8__sb4__20260503172550
Step	Forecast date	Step change	Projected value (USD)	Scenario rationale
1	August 1, 2026	-8.0%	26.78	- The Hormuz energy shock and resulting inflation crush consumer discretionary spend, dragging down real GPV. - Q2 earnings reflect heightened SME churn, inducing panic among high-beta software allocators. - Market sentiment remains dominated by the 'restaurant apocalypse' narrative.
2	November 1, 2026	+12.0%	29.99	- Q3 earnings act as the convergence catalyst; nominal GPV holds up due to menu price inflation. - Management aggressively executes the $500M share repurchase program, exploiting the mispricing. - The alpha gap begins to close as FCF generation proves resilient to the macro shock.
3	February 1, 2027	+10.0%	32.99	- FY26 results reveal structural SaaS gross margin expansion as restaurants adopt automation software to cut labor. - Enterprise and QSR rollouts begin yielding tangible location growth. - The market officially re-rates TOST from 'distressed consumer' to 'mission-critical software'.
4	May 1, 2027	+6.0%	34.97	- Macroeconomic stagflation shows signs of stabilizing, allowing a modest return of consumer dining traffic. - Capital allocation discipline continues to drive per-share value compounding. - Legacy competitor attrition accelerates, funneling net new locations to Toast.
5	August 1, 2027	+5.0%	36.72	- International expansion metrics (UK/Canada) indicate successful localization and expanding TAM. - Toast Capital penetration deepens, generating high-margin credit revenue. - Volatility subsides into a steady accumulation phase.
6	November 1, 2027	+8.0%	39.66	- Q3 2027 earnings demonstrate extreme operational leverage as S&M expenses scale efficiently. - A stabilization in global hardware supply chains relieves tariff-driven margin compression. - Institutional ownership broadens as the 'hated but healthy' narrative is validated.
7	February 1, 2028	+6.0%	42.04	- FY27 confirms Free Cash Flow is approaching the $1 billion annualized threshold. - AI modules achieve critical mass, structurally shifting the revenue mix toward high-margin SaaS. - Zero-debt balance sheet remains a premium asset in the 'Sound Money' interest rate regime.
8	May 1, 2028	+4.0%	43.72	- Sequential growth moderates as base effects from the recovery begin to normalize. - Fintech take-rates experience minor compression from enterprise client negotiations. - Stock consolidates recent gains in a low-steady volatility regime.
9	August 1, 2028	+5.0%	45.91	- Continuous market share capture from dying legacy POS providers sustains location growth. - Consumer spending fully normalizes, providing a tailwind to real GPV per location. - Buyback authorization is renewed and expanded.
10	November 1, 2028	+6.0%	48.66	- Q3 earnings beat expectations on strong enterprise QSR adoption. - Operational efficiency hits terminal velocity, producing GAAP operating margins structurally higher than 2025 levels. - Valuation multiple expands as EPS growth exceeds 25% year-over-year.
11	February 1, 2029	+5.0%	51.10	- FY28 results show Toast holds an impenetrable monopoly over the US independent restaurant sector. - Cash reserves swell past $3.5 billion, igniting expectations of a special dividend or massive M&A. - Forward guidance confirms sustained mid-teens ARR growth.
12	May 1, 2029	+4.0%	53.14	- Strategic M&A announcement utilizes the cash fortress to expand adjacencies (e.g., hotel F&B or grocery). - Integration friction causes minor short-term hesitation among algorithmic traders. - Underlying FCF generation remains unaffected.
13	August 1, 2029	+3.0%	54.73	- Slower summer seasonality in restaurant transaction volumes leads to a flat period. - Market digests the M&A expansion timeline and execution risks. - Steady EPS accumulation anchors the price.
14	November 1, 2029	-5.0%	52.00	- A cyclical rotation out of mature, high-multiple SaaS platforms triggers a technical drawdown. - Profit-taking following a multi-year bull run exerts downward pressure. - Fundamentals remain intact, creating a brief secondary variant perception opportunity.
15	February 1, 2030	+7.0%	55.64	- FY29 earnings crush the bearish cyclical narrative; FCF hits new records. - M&A synergies materialize faster than modeled, accelerating margin expansion. - Market re-prices the stock upward to reflect its definitive infrastructure status.
16	May 1, 2030	+5.0%	58.42	- Toast expands its fintech offerings into broader hospitality sectors. - The competitive moat is universally recognized as impenetrable. - Institutional passive flows provide a constant bid beneath the equity.
17	August 1, 2030	+4.0%	60.76	- Stable, utility-like compounding phase. - Revenue growth decelerates to the low teens as the US TAM reaches saturation. - Focus shifts entirely to EPS growth and capital return programs.
18	November 1, 2030	+5.0%	63.79	- Strong international performance offsets slowing US location growth. - Software ARPU hits all-time highs due to successful cross-selling of the entire product suite. - Operational leverage yields maximum cash flow conversion.
19	February 1, 2031	+6.0%	67.62	- FY30 wrap-up validates Toast as one of the definitive vertical SaaS success stories of the decade. - Dominant market share enables significant pricing power on subscription renewals. - The 'Sound Money' macro regime heavily rewards Toast's massive net cash generation.
20	May 1, 2031	+4.0%	70.33	- Final forecast period reflects a mature, low-volatility compounder. - Capital allocation policy (dividends vs buybacks) dominates the narrative. - The Alpha Gap is fully closed; the stock trades strictly at fair value.

Advisor and configuration

Advisor: michael_burry__the_vulture__google_gemini_3_pro__20251119_preview_release
Persona: Michael Burry
Archetype: The Vulture
Model: (November 19, 2025) Preview Release
Provider: Google
Mode: RESEARCHER (Web Search Enabled) with High Reasoning and Standard Creativity
Task configuration: michael_burry__the_vulture__google_gemini_3_pro__20251119_preview_release__equity__json__extnd_invest_thesis_4q_alphassym__ts_num_desc__h5y_s3m__var1__researcher__standard_creativity_high_thinking__batch
Forecast horizon: 5 year
Forecast steps: 20 steps of 3 month
Assembly type: Balanced Assembly
Assembly name: michael_burry__the_vulture__google_gemini_3_pro__20251119_preview_release RESEARCHER Forecast Assembly
Input format: inmemory_base_placeholders__latest_eod_close_price_with_stats__var2
Output format: Equity Extended Investment Thesis (4 Quadrants and Alpha Asymmetry) + Pct Change Timeseries for Close Price with Rationale, (5Y Quarterly)

Read the complete Michael Burry advisor methodology

Configuration components

aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa (subject_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_efec62e4-24c0-556a-8070-775c69b97643 (global_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa (subject_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_8115cc2a-d418-54b1-a616-49dfa91195f4 (task_guidelines)

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