Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KRX) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 11 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 11 April 2026Deep analysis 11 April 2026
Elon Musk AI
Model rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+107.7%
Includes 0.22% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The Base Case forecasts a massive, volatile upward grind as the AGI hardware supercycle overwhelms the noise of macro shocks. We are buying the physical atoms required for AGI.
- HBM4high bandwidth memory 4High-bandwidth memory 4 (HBM4) is a fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory standard designed to deliver faster data transfer and higher capacity for performance-intensive computing workloads.View full glossary entry and 2nm GAAgate all aroundA transistor architecture in which the gate surrounds the channel on multiple sides to improve electrostatic control and scaling.View full glossary entry hit escape velocityescape velocityA point at which growth or adoption becomes sufficiently self-sustaining to continue without the same level of external support.View full glossary entry, cementing Samsung as an indispensable duopoly player alongside TSMC and SK Hynix.
- Hormuz helium shocks and Warsh's liquidity drainliquidity drainA reduction in money or financing available to markets, which can tighten credit and pressure valuations.View full glossary entry create wild quarterly drawdowns, shaking out weak hands and momentum tourists.
- The legacy consumer divisions (phones, appliances) remain dead weight, dragging on operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry and preventing pure hyper-growth multiplegrowth multipleGrowth multiple is a valuation premium assigned to businesses expected to sustain faster expansion than peers or the broader market.View full glossary entry expansion.
- Institutional capitalinstitutional capitalCapital managed by professional institutions such as pension funds, insurers, sovereign funds, endowments, or asset managers.View full glossary entry is mechanically forced to buy the stock as the only viable geopolitical hedge against Taiwan concentration riskconcentration riskExposure to outsized losses because revenue, capital, suppliers, or holdings depend on a small number of sources.View full glossary entry.
- The implied market cap expands drastically, but it is mathematically sound given the multi-trillion-dollar sovereign AIsovereign aiA national strategy to develop or control domestic AI models, data, computing capacity, skills, and governance.View full glossary entry capexcapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry TAMtotal addressable marketTotal addressable market (TAM) is the full revenue opportunity available if a product or service achieved complete adoption within its relevant market.View full glossary entry that relies completely on these specific physical configurations of silicon.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (KRW) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-04-06 | 86,000 |
| Observed price | 2021-04-30 | 81,500 |
| Observed price | 2021-05-04 | 82,600 |
| Observed price | 2021-05-20 | 79,500 |
| Observed price | 2021-06-05 | 82,100 |
| Observed price | 2021-06-21 | 79,900 |
| Observed price | 2021-06-29 | 81,000 |
| Observed price | 2021-07-19 | 79,000 |
| Observed price | 2021-08-04 | 82,900 |
| Observed price | 2021-08-20 | 72,700 |
| Observed price | 2021-08-28 | 74,400 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-17 | 77,200 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-25 | 77,433 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-11 | 69,625 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-31 | 69,867 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-12 | 70,600 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-16 | 71,300 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-10 | 76,900 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-14 | 77,000 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-26 | 80,300 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-11 | 78,900 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-27 | 71,300 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-16 | 74,800 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-24 | 71,500 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-16 | 70,400 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-01 | 69,100 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-05 | 69,200 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-25 | 66,300 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-11 | 65,700 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-23 | 67,900 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-31 | 67,400 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-24 | 58,400 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-06 | 56,400 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-18 | 61,900 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-26 | 61,700 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-11 | 59,900 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-31 | 59,700 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-08 | 55,600 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-28 | 52,900 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-14 | 56,300 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-22 | 56,433 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-11 | 62,900 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-01 | 62,600 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-05 | 60,300 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-13 | 59,700 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-29 | 55,300 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-18 | 60,400 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-26 | 63,800 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-11 | 62,900 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-03 | 60,500 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-11 | 59,667 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-31 | 64,000 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-04 | 63,600 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-12 | 66,000 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-14 | 64,367 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-26 | 70,300 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-30 | 72,300 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-07 | 71,000 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-09 | 69,633 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-17 | 73,300 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-29 | 70,333 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-18 | 66,300 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-22 | 66,600 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-15 | 72,000 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-19 | 69,800 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-09 | 66,300 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-29 | 67,300 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-06 | 70,900 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-14 | 70,800 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-30 | 72,800 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-16 | 73,167 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-01 | 79,380 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-17 | 71,000 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-02 | 75,200 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-10 | 74,540 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-26 | 72,800 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-17 | 72,633 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-29 | 82,400 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-02 | 85,000 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-22 | 76,100 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-08 | 81,300 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-24 | 75,900 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-01 | 74,233 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-21 | 80,000 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-25 | 80,800 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-11 | 87,600 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-31 | 83,900 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-08 | 73,400 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-20 | 78,900 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-13 | 64,400 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-17 | 63,533 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-11 | 59,300 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-15 | 61,000 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-08 | 57,000 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-12 | 53,000 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-24 | 57,267 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-14 | 55,933 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-30 | 53,200 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-07 | 55,400 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-31 | 52,400 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-04 | 52,700 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-20 | 58,400 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-08 | 53,700 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-24 | 60,500 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-01 | 58,800 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-09 | 53,000 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-15 | 57,300 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-23 | 54,200 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-27 | 53,900 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-08 | 59,625 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-28 | 60,467 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-18 | 67,100 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-22 | 66,000 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-30 | 72,600 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-31 | 68,300 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-12 | 75,400 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-16 | 79,400 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-10 | 94,400 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-14 | 91,600 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-03 | 111,100 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-23 | 96,067 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-05 | 108,400 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-13 | 107,533 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-02 | 128,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-06 | 138,900 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-30 | 160,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-07 | 161,200 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-27 | 216,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-19 | 200,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-27 | 179,700 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-31 | 167,200 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-24 | 219,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-28 | 222,000 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-14 | 296,000 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-03 | 356,000 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-11 | 299,000 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-27 | 334,000 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-17 | 252,250 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-29 | 208,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-14 | 274,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-22 | 273,333 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-03 | 250,000 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-15 | 248,500 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-18 | 261,000 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-04-10 | 206,000 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-07-10 | 189,520 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-10-10 | 200,891 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-01-10 | 220,980 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-04-10 | 238,659 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-07-10 | 250,592 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-10-10 | 240,568 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-01-10 | 257,408 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-04-10 | 288,297 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-07-10 | 302,712 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-10-10 | 287,576 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-01-10 | 304,831 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-04-10 | 329,217 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-07-10 | 342,386 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-10-10 | 332,114 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-01-10 | 348,720 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-04-10 | 369,643 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-07-10 | 395,518 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-10-10 | 387,608 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-01-10 | 403,112 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-04-10 | 423,268 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The Bull Case materializes if the Base Case execution is amplified by a structural governance shift and unforced errors by TSMC.
- Samsung finally grows a spine and spins off the foundry division, entirely nuking the boomer conglomerate discountconglomerate discountThe tendency for diversified companies to trade at a lower valuation than the sum of their parts.View full glossary entry.
- Apple and Nvidia shift 30+ percent of 2nm orders to Samsung to actively de-risk from the CCP's crosshairs.
- high bandwidth memory 4High-bandwidth memory 4 (HBM4) is a fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory standard designed to deliver faster data transfer and higher capacity for performance-intensive computing workloads. hybrid bondinghybrid bondingA semiconductor-packaging technique that directly bonds metal interconnects and surrounding dielectric surfaces between dies or wafers.View full glossary entry works flawlessly, allowing them to steal structural market share back from SK Hynix.
- The stock goes absolutely parabolic, repriced as a pure-play AGI physical infrastructure monopolyinfrastructure monopolyA dominant provider of essential infrastructure protected by high capital, regulatory, network, or switching barriers.View full glossary entry.
Bear case
The Bear Case triggers if fundamental physics fail to scale and macro frictions destroy the liquidity environment.
- The thermodynamics of 16-layer high bandwidth memory 4High-bandwidth memory 4 (HBM4) is a fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory standard designed to deliver faster data transfer and higher capacity for performance-intensive computing workloads. break down in volume production, permanently relegating Samsung to a tier-2 memory supplier.
- Qatari helium shortages from the Hormuz war physically bottleneck EUV lithography, destroying the newly acquired 2nm foundry yields.
- The Warsh USD wrecking ball triggers an Asian currency crisis, cratering the KRW and destroying dollar-denominated returns for foreign investors.
Current crowd narrative
The noisy normies on FinTwit and sell-side boomers think Samsung is just staging a cute cyclical 'Great Recovery' because they finally passed Nvidia's HBM3E test. They anchor to the historical conglomerate discountThe tendency for diversified companies to trade at a lower valuation than the sum of their parts., treating this as a bloated TV and smartphone company that got lucky on memory pricing. The crowd assumes Samsung Foundry will always be the perennial runner-up to TSMC, capping the multiple, completely blind to the physics of the 2nm gate all aroundA transistor architecture in which the gate surrounds the channel on multiple sides to improve electrostatic control and scaling. S-curve inflections curve inflectionThe point where adoption shifts from slow early growth to rapid expansion, or begins to mature.View full glossary entry.
Alpha-gap assessment
The variant perceptionvariant perceptionAn investment view that differs from market consensus and assumes future outcomes will be better or worse than widely expected.View full glossary entry is that gate all aroundA transistor architecture in which the gate surrounds the channel on multiple sides to improve electrostatic control and scaling. () physics at 2nm is the ultimate paradigm shifter. Samsung ate dirt on 3nm to pioneer ; now they are hitting 60 percent yields while TSMC is barely transitioning. Combine this with the Stargate AI supercycleai supercycleA proposed long-duration investment cycle driven by widespread adoption of AI and the infrastructure needed to support it.View full glossary entry—megacaps MUST diversify away from Taiwan's geopolitical fault line. Samsung is the ONLY entity on Earth capable of dual-supplying 2nm logic and high bandwidth memory 4High-bandwidth memory 4 (HBM4) is a fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory standard designed to deliver faster data transfer and higher capacity for performance-intensive computing workloads. memory. The total addressable marketTotal addressable market (TAM) is the full revenue opportunity available if a product or service achieved complete adoption within its relevant market. isn't smartphones; it's the bedrock of AGI compute. This isn't a recovery; it's a structural monopolystructural monopolyA durable market structure where one provider keeps dominant power due to strong barriers to entry.View full glossary entry.
Convergence catalyst
The alpha gapalpha gapA difference between an investment view of potential excess return and the excess return implied by current market expectations.View full glossary entry closes when Samsung ships commercial volumes of 2nm Exynos 2600 and high bandwidth memory 4High-bandwidth memory 4 (HBM4) is a fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory standard designed to deliver faster data transfer and higher capacity for performance-intensive computing workloads. stacks for Nvidia's Vera Rubin in late 2026, and hyperscalershyperscalersVery large cloud or internet-platform operators that run computing infrastructure at global scale.View full glossary entry formally announce Samsung as a primary 2nm dual-source. This confirms the AGI physical infrastructure thesis.
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