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SAF.PAR
Safran
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Aerospace propulsion and systems company with strong leverage to aircraft production, defense spending, and long-cycle aftermarket demand.

HQ: FranceListed: France

AI Forecasts

Compare independent AI Advisor forecasts, ratings, scenarios, risks, configurations, sources, and step-by-step prediction paths for Safran.

Safran SA (SAF.PAR) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 3 July 2026Deep analysis 5 July 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Elon Musk AI advisor icon

Elon Musk AI

The Visionary FrameworkAI Thinker

Price-adjusted rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+136.5%

Includes 0.76% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Safran operates as a Paradigm Shifter masquerading as a legacy industrial. The most reasonable path forward sees the stock massively outperforming over the 5-year horizon as the market awakens to its dual-engine dominance: the unrivaled cash generation of its MRO monopoly and its transition into a sovereign defense AI powerhouse. We forecast substantial as continues to translate into 14%+ .

  • The CFM LEAP engine locks in decades of predictable, high-margin aftermarket cash flow.
  • The 2026 makes the 20% efficiency gains of the upcoming RISE architecture an existential requirement for airlines.
  • Strategic acquisitions in AI and optronics perfectly capture the structural European defense budget expansion.
  • Massive subsidizes both R&D and aggressive share count reduction without diluting capital.
  • (titanium/forgings) will cause quarterly noise but cannot alter the long-term physics of demand.

Critically, at a ~$170B USD market cap, there is ample headroom for expansion given the global money supply. As the market rotates away from speculative, cash-burning narratives, capital will violently flow into assets like Safran that demonstrate true physical moats, thermodynamic leadership, and extreme cash conversion.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.22.37221.35420.33619.32818.3Jul 2021Dec 2023Jul 2026Dec 2028Jul 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (EUR)
Observed price2021-07-01118.8
Observed price2021-07-05120.18
Observed price2021-07-17110.4
Observed price2021-07-25115.83
Observed price2021-08-14108.69
Observed price2021-08-26107.02
Observed price2021-09-07102.86
Observed price2021-09-15102.36
Observed price2021-09-27115.02
Observed price2021-10-09114.62
Observed price2021-10-25107.76
Observed price2021-11-02115.18
Observed price2021-11-10123
Observed price2021-11-22111.6
Observed price2021-11-3098.78
Observed price2021-12-2099.44
Observed price2022-01-05111.7
Observed price2022-01-17112.56
Observed price2022-01-25105.88
Observed price2022-02-06107.45
Observed price2022-02-10115.08
Observed price2022-02-26111.4
Observed price2022-03-0696.23
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Observed price2022-05-0597.11
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Observed price2022-06-0698.52
Observed price2022-06-1488.7
Observed price2022-06-3094.21
Observed price2022-07-16102.5
Observed price2022-07-24103.47
Observed price2022-08-09107.98
Observed price2022-08-17111.62
Observed price2022-09-02102.36
Observed price2022-09-10104.27
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Observed price2022-09-3094.01
Observed price2022-10-20107.5
Observed price2022-10-24109.48
Observed price2022-11-09114
Observed price2022-11-17112.34
Observed price2022-11-25117.22
Observed price2022-12-15115.92
Observed price2022-12-27117.9
Observed price2023-01-04118.4
Observed price2023-01-24130.84
Observed price2023-02-13129.82
Observed price2023-02-17134.27
Observed price2023-03-05135.28
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Observed price2023-03-17130.79
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Observed price2023-04-10136.62
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Observed price2023-05-20143.28
Observed price2023-05-24136.58
Observed price2023-06-09136.64
Observed price2023-06-17140.66
Observed price2023-06-29142.26
Observed price2023-07-07134.84
Observed price2023-07-15137.87
Observed price2023-07-31150.96
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Observed price2023-08-20144.48
Observed price2023-09-05145.7
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Observed price2023-12-26159.69
Observed price2024-01-03158.66
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Observed price2024-02-04175.5
Observed price2024-02-16187.88
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Observed price2024-03-27209.35
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Observed price2024-04-24210.2
Observed price2024-05-02202.8
Observed price2024-05-10212.5
Observed price2024-05-26217.97
Observed price2024-06-11207.2
Observed price2024-06-15197.73
Observed price2024-06-23204.83
Observed price2024-07-13203.6
Observed price2024-07-25199.5
Observed price2024-08-06189.4
Observed price2024-08-18196.67
Observed price2024-09-07192.92
Observed price2024-09-15203.3
Observed price2024-09-27213.4
Observed price2024-10-09203.9
Observed price2024-10-13207.47
Observed price2024-10-17214.4
Observed price2024-11-10223.6
Observed price2024-11-26218.2
Observed price2024-12-04228.6
Observed price2024-12-12208.1
Observed price2024-12-24209.7
Observed price2025-01-09220.6
Observed price2025-01-17227.4
Observed price2025-02-06241
Observed price2025-02-22243.77
Observed price2025-03-02255.3
Observed price2025-03-06258.7
Observed price2025-03-10238.4
Observed price2025-03-30243.23
Observed price2025-04-07201.3
Observed price2025-04-23219.4
Observed price2025-05-13251.6
Observed price2025-05-17257.1
Observed price2025-06-06265.7
Observed price2025-06-14255.17
Observed price2025-06-30275.9
Observed price2025-07-04269.8
Observed price2025-07-20283.83
Observed price2025-07-28275.8
Observed price2025-08-17292.6
Observed price2025-08-21292.5
Observed price2025-09-06278.6
Observed price2025-09-18284.8
Observed price2025-10-04301.43
Observed price2025-10-12297.83
Observed price2025-10-28305.3
Observed price2025-11-01308.7
Observed price2025-11-21289.4
Observed price2025-11-25286.3
Observed price2025-12-03296.7
Observed price2025-12-27296.3
Observed price2026-01-08319.6
Observed price2026-01-16320.7
Observed price2026-02-01301.8
Observed price2026-02-05302.5
Observed price2026-02-21346.27
Observed price2026-03-01337.4
Observed price2026-03-21283.5
Observed price2026-03-29275.73
Observed price2026-04-14317.4
Observed price2026-04-18311.33
Observed price2026-05-04265.2
Observed price2026-05-16272.23
Observed price2026-05-28303
Observed price2026-06-09295.6
Observed price2026-06-25343.7
Observed price2026-07-03356.7
Observed price2026-07-19326.3
Observed price2026-07-23321.4
Observed price2026-08-12363.6
Observed price2026-08-16360.9
Observed price2026-09-01331.6
Observed price2026-09-08333.6
Observed price2026-09-10322
Observed price2026-09-11330.2
Published advisor forecast2026-07-03356.7
Published advisor forecast2026-10-03378.1
Published advisor forecast2027-01-03397.01
Published advisor forecast2027-04-03408.92
Published advisor forecast2027-07-03400.74
Published advisor forecast2027-10-03428.79
Published advisor forecast2028-01-03454.52
Published advisor forecast2028-04-03472.7
Published advisor forecast2028-07-03486.88
Published advisor forecast2028-10-03525.83
Published advisor forecast2029-01-03510.06
Published advisor forecast2029-04-03535.56
Published advisor forecast2029-07-03556.98
Published advisor forecast2029-10-03590.4
Published advisor forecast2030-01-03614.02
Published advisor forecast2030-04-03632.44
Published advisor forecast2030-07-03607.14
Published advisor forecast2030-10-03637.5
Published advisor forecast2031-01-03682.12
Published advisor forecast2031-04-03709.4
Published advisor forecast2031-07-03751.97

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

In the bull scenario, Safran hits terminal . The Base Case accelerates as the RISE engine achieves early certification and airlines place historic, panic-driven orders to survive structurally high fuel costs.

  • Hybrid/hydrogen propulsion prototypes crush expectations, establishing a 50-year .
  • US DOD actively procures Safran's defense optronics, shattering American legacy prime monopolies.
  • MRO margins expand past 25% as Boeing/Airbus delays force extreme aging-fleet utilization.
  • The market applies a to the stock, recognizing it as a thermodynamic AI pioneer.

Bear case

The bear case materializes if the physics fail or macro contagion breaks the airline customer base. Despite the monopoly position, if the customers cannot pay, the cash engine stops.

  • The persistently destroys global passenger travel demand, bankrupting major carriers.
  • The RISE engine hits insurmountable thermodynamic or acoustic limits, forcing costly redesigns.
  • European defense budgets collapse under stress, wiping out the optronics/AI growth vector.
  • raw-material starvation caps deliveries, permanently damaging revenue realization.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd views Safran as a safe, boring, high-quality European industrial. Media and sell-side research treat it as a pure-play on the post-COVID commercial travel recovery and the structural duopoly of Boeing/Airbus. The prevailing consensus trade assumes stable, high-margin MRO cash flows, anchoring its valuation to historical aerospace multiples. They see an incremental optimizer, entirely ignoring the bleeding-edge thermodynamic engineering and the aggressive pivot toward and defense intelligence. The market prices the present cash flow but is blind to the future S-curve.

Alpha-gap assessment

The is that Safran is not a legacy metal-bender; it is a First-Principles Builder dominating the physics of global mobility and defense. The crowd misprices the explosive optionality of the RISE Open Fan architecture and the integration of in military optronics. The exists because the market models linear growth on engine spare parts, while totally ignoring the exponential of a company that dictates during a . They are buying a tech at an industrial multiple.

Convergence catalyst

The successful full-scale demonstrator flight of the Open Fan (RISE) engine, combined with a blowout quarter in defense AI margins, will force the market to capitulate. Once airlines publicly commit to this revolutionary architecture as the only viable hedge against Hormuz-era fuel costs, the closes.

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