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Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Aerospace and defense company providing advanced systems and services for commercial, military, and government customers.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for RTX.

Historical AI Opinions

RTX Corporation (RTX.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 28 November 2025Deep analysis 28 November 2025

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

AI Advisor 1 AI

Independent Investor FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+62.9%

Includes 1.02% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The most reasonable thesis projects RTX as a balanced industrial , benefiting from the dual tailwinds of defense modernization and commercial air travel demand. While the GTF powder metal recall impacts cash flow through 2026, the issue is ring-fenced and manageable. The company's record (>$220B) provides high . Margins gradually expand as supply chains normalize and the mix shifts toward high-margin aftermarket services. We expect RTX to deliver consistent 8-10% earnings growth, supported by a 'defense floor' that insulates against broader economic volatility. The valuation remains attractive relative to pure-play defense peers given the commercial recovery potential.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.46.63107.06167.49227.92288.35Nov 2020May 2023Nov 2025May 2028Nov 2030Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2020-11-2473.3
Observed price2020-12-0773.7
Observed price2020-12-2069.7
Observed price2021-01-0271.0
Observed price2021-01-1968.9
Observed price2021-01-2466.8
Observed price2021-02-1974.3
Observed price2021-03-0374.4
Observed price2021-03-1679.6
Observed price2021-04-0777.5
Observed price2021-04-2078.8
Observed price2021-04-2480.6
Observed price2021-05-1686.2
Observed price2021-05-2586.5
Observed price2021-06-0789.3
Observed price2021-06-2486.6
Observed price2021-07-1683.7
Observed price2021-08-1188.6
Observed price2021-08-1983.7
Observed price2021-08-2485.4
Observed price2021-09-0683.2
Observed price2021-09-2386.8
Observed price2021-10-1991.3
Observed price2021-10-2390.9
Observed price2021-11-1887.2
Observed price2021-11-2385.8
Observed price2021-12-0179.8
Observed price2021-12-2384.5
Observed price2022-01-1491.2
Observed price2022-01-2288.5
Observed price2022-02-0996.0
Observed price2022-02-2292.6
Observed price2022-03-02100
Observed price2022-04-0698.7
Observed price2022-04-19105
Observed price2022-04-23101
Observed price2022-05-1990.6
Observed price2022-06-0599.6
Observed price2022-06-1492.5
Observed price2022-06-2393.9
Observed price2022-07-1491.0
Observed price2022-07-2792.1
Observed price2022-08-1494.4
Observed price2022-08-2293.3
Observed price2022-09-1785.3
Observed price2022-10-1382.7
Observed price2022-10-1886.8
Observed price2022-10-2289.1
Observed price2022-11-0495.2
Observed price2022-11-2196.8
Observed price2022-12-1399.8
Observed price2023-01-04101
Observed price2023-01-1798.3
Observed price2023-01-2195.9
Observed price2023-02-16101
Observed price2023-02-20101
Observed price2023-03-1896.1
Observed price2023-03-2396.7
Observed price2023-04-17105
Observed price2023-04-22101
Observed price2023-05-0596.0
Observed price2023-05-3192.4
Observed price2023-06-1399.5
Observed price2023-07-0998.0
Observed price2023-07-1795.7
Observed price2023-07-2296.5
Observed price2023-08-0484.7
Observed price2023-08-3086.4
Observed price2023-09-1675.3
Observed price2023-10-0370.2
Observed price2023-10-1673.9
Observed price2023-10-2173.9
Observed price2023-11-0382.8
Observed price2023-11-2079.3
Observed price2023-12-0382.9
Observed price2023-12-2082.0
Observed price2024-01-1186.2
Observed price2024-01-2087.2
Observed price2024-02-0691.7
Observed price2024-02-2389.8
Observed price2024-03-1693.2
Observed price2024-03-2095.2
Observed price2024-04-07102
Observed price2024-04-20101
Observed price2024-05-11106
Observed price2024-06-02108
Observed price2024-06-15105
Observed price2024-06-19104
Observed price2024-07-06100
Observed price2024-07-19103
Observed price2024-08-14118
Observed price2024-08-19118
Observed price2024-09-01122
Observed price2024-09-18118
Observed price2024-10-14125
Observed price2024-10-18126
Observed price2024-11-05119
Observed price2024-12-01121
Observed price2024-12-09116
Observed price2025-01-04114
Observed price2025-01-13118
Observed price2025-01-17122
Observed price2025-02-04130
Observed price2025-02-21124
Observed price2025-03-02132
Observed price2025-03-28134
Observed price2025-04-05125
Observed price2025-04-23118
Observed price2025-05-14133
Observed price2025-05-23133
Observed price2025-06-13144
Observed price2025-06-26143
Observed price2025-07-14148
Observed price2025-07-18152
Observed price2025-07-31157
Observed price2025-08-26159
Observed price2025-09-08152
Observed price2025-09-17158
Observed price2025-09-30167
Observed price2025-10-17162
Observed price2025-10-26178
Observed price2025-12-04169
Observed price2025-12-12178
Observed price2025-12-17181
Observed price2026-01-12193
Observed price2026-01-16201
Observed price2026-02-07196
Observed price2026-02-24200
Observed price2026-03-05209
Observed price2026-03-18202
Observed price2026-03-26190
Observed price2026-04-17197
Observed price2026-04-30174
Observed price2026-05-17175
Observed price2026-06-12181
Observed price2026-06-17185
Observed price2026-07-04200
Observed price2026-07-17194
Observed price2026-08-07223
Observed price2026-08-16222
Observed price2026-09-11197
Observed price2026-09-16197
Observed price2026-09-17194
Observed price2026-09-21194
Published advisor forecast2025-11-26173
Published advisor forecast2026-05-27184
Published advisor forecast2026-11-27195
Published advisor forecast2027-05-27208
Published advisor forecast2027-11-27219
Published advisor forecast2028-05-27228
Published advisor forecast2028-11-27236
Published advisor forecast2029-05-27244
Published advisor forecast2029-11-27252
Published advisor forecast2030-05-27260
Published advisor forecast2030-11-27268

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

In the bull case, RTX capitalizes on a synchronized global defense rearmament cycle and a prolonged commercial aerospace supercycle. The Geared Turbofan (GTF) powdered metal issues are fully resolved within 2025 provisions, with no further significant financial impact, restoring investor confidence in the Pratt & Whitney franchise. Defense convert to revenue at accelerating rates due to debottlenecking, driving margins toward 14-15%. Additionally, RTX secures prime positions in Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) programs, cementing long-term dominance. exceeds $9 billion annually by 2027, fueling aggressive and dividend growth, commanding a closer to 25x earnings.

Bear case

The bear case envisions a stagnation in global defense spending due to US fiscal constraints (sequestration) and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions reducing urgency. Commercial aerospace recovery stalls amidst a global recession, dampening high-margin aftermarket revenue. Crucially, the GTF engine issues persist or expand to other fleets, creating a long-tail liability that drags on for years. Operational execution struggles with labor shortages and sticky inflation, compressing margins below 10%. In this scenario, RTX faces a multiple contraction to 15-16x earnings as growth estimates are slashed and to shareholders are suspended to preserve liquidity.

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