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RTX Corporation (RTX.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

14 AI Advisor Reports

Select an advisor report.

Diversity of Models

Diversity of Frameworks

Universal Investor AI

Gemini 3.8 Flash

The Polymath FrameworkAI Researcher

Price-adjusted rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+75.3%

Includes 1.02% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

RTX represents a premier aerospace and defense compounder whose economic engine is entering a multiyear expansion phase. Evidence confirms that the market's obsession with past GTF powder metal liabilities and near-term supply chain frictions has created an attractive entry point at $194. The company's $289 billion backlog, supplemented by the $22.9 billion Tomahawk award, ensures durable top-line compounding above 8% annually. As commercial aftermarket high-margin volume accelerates at Collins Aerospace and munitions production rates double at Raytheon, operating drop-through will expand consolidated operating margins beyond 12.5%, driving superior free cash flow compounding.

Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS reaching $7.25 anchors robust baseline earnings power and validates operational execution targets.
Expanding forward toward $10.5 billion by 2028 justifies multiple re-rating to $250 per share.
Implied enterprise value of $360 billion reflects durable mid-single-digit free cash flow yields across long-cycle defense programs.

Historical prices and published forecast

Observed price
Published advisor forecast

Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.

View chart values

Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
Series	Date	Value (USD)
Observed price	2021-09-14	84.8
Observed price	2021-09-19	83.7
Observed price	2021-10-06	89.3
Observed price	2021-10-19	91.3
Observed price	2021-11-01	88.5
Observed price	2021-11-10	90.2
Observed price	2021-11-27	81.9
Observed price	2021-12-01	79.8
Observed price	2021-12-10	85.4
Observed price	2021-12-27	85.9
Observed price	2022-01-14	91.2
Observed price	2022-01-22	88.5
Observed price	2022-02-09	96.0
Observed price	2022-02-22	92.6
Observed price	2022-03-02	100
Observed price	2022-03-15	95.9
Observed price	2022-03-24	102
Observed price	2022-04-19	105
Observed price	2022-05-02	95.8
Observed price	2022-05-19	90.6
Observed price	2022-05-28	96.6
Observed price	2022-06-05	99.6
Observed price	2022-06-14	92.5
Observed price	2022-07-06	93.8
Observed price	2022-07-14	91.0
Observed price	2022-07-27	92.1
Observed price	2022-08-14	94.4
Observed price	2022-08-18	93.7
Observed price	2022-09-09	87.6
Observed price	2022-09-13	86.7
Observed price	2022-09-22	82.9
Observed price	2022-10-13	82.7
Observed price	2022-10-31	94.9
Observed price	2022-11-13	93.3
Observed price	2022-11-26	96.9
Observed price	2022-12-13	99.8
Observed price	2022-12-17	98.1
Observed price	2023-01-04	101
Observed price	2023-01-17	98.3
Observed price	2023-01-21	95.9
Observed price	2023-02-12	101
Observed price	2023-02-16	101
Observed price	2023-03-10	96.4
Observed price	2023-03-18	96.1
Observed price	2023-04-05	99.5
Observed price	2023-04-17	105
Observed price	2023-04-26	98.0
Observed price	2023-05-18	96.3
Observed price	2023-05-26	92.8
Observed price	2023-05-31	92.4
Observed price	2023-06-13	99.5
Observed price	2023-07-09	98.0
Observed price	2023-07-17	95.7
Observed price	2023-07-22	96.5
Observed price	2023-08-04	84.7
Observed price	2023-08-30	86.4
Observed price	2023-09-07	83.5
Observed price	2023-09-12	76.8
Observed price	2023-10-03	70.2
Observed price	2023-10-08	72.5
Observed price	2023-10-29	78.6
Observed price	2023-11-03	82.8
Observed price	2023-11-20	79.3
Observed price	2023-12-03	82.9
Observed price	2023-12-16	80.7
Observed price	2023-12-25	83.7
Observed price	2024-01-11	86.2
Observed price	2024-01-20	87.2
Observed price	2024-02-06	91.7
Observed price	2024-02-15	90.9
Observed price	2024-02-23	89.8
Observed price	2024-03-12	91.5
Observed price	2024-04-02	99.3
Observed price	2024-04-07	102
Observed price	2024-04-15	100
Observed price	2024-05-03	101
Observed price	2024-05-24	106
Observed price	2024-06-02	108
Observed price	2024-06-19	104
Observed price	2024-07-06	100
Observed price	2024-07-15	104
Observed price	2024-07-19	103
Observed price	2024-08-10	117
Observed price	2024-08-14	118
Observed price	2024-09-01	122
Observed price	2024-09-18	118
Observed price	2024-10-01	124
Observed price	2024-10-18	126
Observed price	2024-10-27	123
Observed price	2024-11-05	119
Observed price	2024-11-09	122
Observed price	2024-12-01	121
Observed price	2024-12-09	116
Observed price	2025-01-04	114
Observed price	2025-01-13	118
Observed price	2025-01-17	122
Observed price	2025-02-04	130
Observed price	2025-02-21	124
Observed price	2025-03-02	132
Observed price	2025-03-10	129
Observed price	2025-03-28	134
Observed price	2025-04-14	129
Observed price	2025-04-23	118
Observed price	2025-05-01	127
Observed price	2025-05-19	135
Observed price	2025-05-27	135
Observed price	2025-06-18	148
Observed price	2025-06-26	143
Observed price	2025-07-14	148
Observed price	2025-07-18	152
Observed price	2025-07-31	157
Observed price	2025-08-13	155
Observed price	2025-08-26	159
Observed price	2025-09-08	152
Observed price	2025-09-30	167
Observed price	2025-10-13	159
Observed price	2025-10-26	178
Observed price	2025-11-12	177
Observed price	2025-11-21	170
Observed price	2025-12-04	169
Observed price	2025-12-17	181
Observed price	2025-12-30	184
Observed price	2026-01-12	193
Observed price	2026-01-16	201
Observed price	2026-02-07	196
Observed price	2026-02-24	200
Observed price	2026-03-05	209
Observed price	2026-03-09	208
Observed price	2026-03-26	190
Observed price	2026-04-08	200
Observed price	2026-04-26	177
Observed price	2026-04-30	174
Observed price	2026-05-09	178
Observed price	2026-05-30	176
Observed price	2026-06-17	185
Observed price	2026-06-21	185
Observed price	2026-07-04	200
Observed price	2026-07-17	194
Observed price	2026-08-07	223
Observed price	2026-08-12	222
Observed price	2026-09-02	202
Observed price	2026-09-07	199
Observed price	2026-09-17	194
Observed price	2026-09-21	194
Published advisor forecast	2026-09-18	194
Published advisor forecast	2026-12-18	202
Published advisor forecast	2027-03-18	212
Published advisor forecast	2027-06-18	218
Published advisor forecast	2027-09-18	227
Published advisor forecast	2027-12-18	234
Published advisor forecast	2028-03-18	243
Published advisor forecast	2028-06-18	248
Published advisor forecast	2028-09-18	255
Published advisor forecast	2028-12-18	260
Published advisor forecast	2029-03-18	268
Published advisor forecast	2029-06-18	274
Published advisor forecast	2029-09-18	282
Published advisor forecast	2029-12-18	288
Published advisor forecast	2030-03-18	296
Published advisor forecast	2030-06-18	299
Published advisor forecast	2030-09-18	305
Published advisor forecast	2030-12-18	308
Published advisor forecast	2031-03-18	314
Published advisor forecast	2031-06-18	321
Published advisor forecast	2031-09-18	324

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

An aggressive expansion of allied defense budgets activates this upside scenario, accelerating international orders across Patriot, LTAMDS, and Tomahawk effectors. Concurrently, rapid debottlenecking in commercial aerospace supply chains allows Pratt & Whitney to deliver geared turbofans ahead of schedule, expanding high-margin aftermarket shop visits. This dual acceleration pushes annual past $12 billion by 2028, driving aggressive share buybacks and re-rating the equity above $290 per share.

Bear case

Severe sub-tier supplier insolvency and persistent raw material shortages activate the downside scenario, stalling Raytheon missile assembly lines and stranding work-in-process inventory. Compounding this, a synchronized global airline recession curbs commercial flight hours, abruptly compressing Collins Aerospace aftermarket parts demand and . Incurring unexpected fixed-price contract overrun charges while absorption rates decline compresses below 9%, precipitating multiple contraction and driving shares down toward $145.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus narrative treats RTX as fully priced following its recovery from the 2023 powdered metal crisis, anchoring on a seemingly full 27x forward price-to-earnings multiple. The crowd assumes commercial aerospace aftermarket growth is peaking while will cap defense throughput, overlooking how multiyear munitions frameworks convert into structural margin expansion.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd underestimates the earnings power embedded in RTX's record $289 billion , implying clear share underpricing. Sell-side consensus incorrectly models Raytheon as a low-margin cyclical contractor rather than an essential multiyear defense platform provider. Crucially, the market has not integrated the margin inflection from five landmark Department of Defense munitions frameworks and the recent $22.9 billion Tomahawk contract, which bypass annual appropriation volatility. As capacity expansions double munition output, operating drop-through will drive structural earnings beats through 2029.

Convergence catalyst

The decisive catalyst will be RTX's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings release in January 2027. Demonstrating sustained exceeding $8.75 billion, alongside formal recognition of landmark multiyear munitions frameworks, will definitively prove margin expansion and force Wall Street analysts to aggressively upgrade forward consensus earnings estimates.

Macro-regime alignment

The macroeconomic regime of elevated interest rates and persistent energy security disruption acts as a net positive catalyst. While higher discount rates pressure broader market multiples, sovereign defense spending is structurally uncorrelated with consumer cycles. Geopolitical friction directly drives emergency supplemental appropriations, insulating RTX's revenue trajectory from macro tightening.

Paywalled preview begins: Macro-regime alignment

From this section to the end-of-preview notice below, research is provided as simplified HTML text and tables. Full access provides the complete interactive interface, charts and additional datasets.

Sentiment and regime

Greed and fear sentiment: 0.2
Expected volatility regime: moderate
Convergence-cycle position: momentum

Primary drivers

Primary drivers supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Munitions Replenishment Supercycle Drive	Global missile inventory depletion across Middle Eastern and Eastern European theaters establishes an enduring procurement supercycle for Raytheon. With US ready-to-fire stockpiles severely drained, the Department of Defense is executing unprecedented multiyear procurement frameworks across Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and Patriot GEM-T. This contracted demand visibility expands Raytheon segment operating profit toward double-digit margins and secures high-margin defense revenue through 2031.	Not available	+32.0%
Commercial Aftermarket Surge Expands OPE	Record global commercial passenger volume and deferred aircraft retirements generate high-margin maintenance, repair, and overhaul volume across Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney. Commercial aftermarket revenue grew double digits in 2026, delivering 18% segment profit growth and expanding Collins operating margins toward management's 19% to 20% target. This installed-base utilization provides recurring, high-cash-conversion revenue that insulates enterprise free cash flow from cyclical airline capital expenditure swings.	Not available	+26.0%
Resolution OF Powdered Metal Liabilities	The operational and financial resolution of Pratt & Whitney's PW1100G-JM powdered metal contamination removes a severe structural cash drag. Accrued customer compensation dropped to $0.4 billion by mid-2026, allowing annual free cash flow conversion to normalize above 85% of net income. As inspection disruption recedes, GTF fleet flight hours compound, converting temporary warranty support into lucrative long-term fleet management aftermarket cash flows through 2031.	Not available	+21.0%
Record Contracted Backlog Provides Durab	RTX's order backlog expanded 22% year-over-year to a record $289 billion by mid-2026, excluding recent landmark awards like the $22.9 billion Tomahawk contract. This colossal volume, representing more than three years of forward sales, guarantees revenue compounding even during macroeconomic deceleration. Expanding international defense mix to 48% enhances pricing power, driving sustained enterprise operating leverage and supporting management's target of returning excess capital via buybacks.	Not available	+18.0%

Primary frictions

Primary frictions supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Persistent Defense Supply Chain Throughp	Acute tier-three and tier-four supply chain constraints in solid rocket motors, specialized castings, and microelectronics restrict production ramp rates. Although order intake remains historic, sub-tier vendor lead times prolong manufacturing cycle times, delaying backlog-to-revenue conversion across Raytheon's precision effectors. This friction caps near-term operating leverage, forcing RTX to absorb buffer-inventory working capital carrying costs that dilute intermediate return on invested capital.	Not available	-14.0%
Higher COST OF Capital Compresses Valuat	Renewed Federal Reserve monetary tightening, bringing policy rates to 3.75%-4.00% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields near 5.0%, exerts structural valuation compression on long-duration equities. Despite robust operational delivery, RTX's price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 34x trailing and 27x forward earnings faces discount-rate headwinds. Elevated sovereign yields raise RTX's weighted average cost of capital, limiting equity multiple re-rating even as nominal free cash flow reaches record levels.	Not available	-12.0%
Strategic Critical Mineral Restrictions	Active Chinese export restrictions and licensing friction on rare-earth elements, gallium, germanium, and critical magnet alloys pressure aerospace component procurement. RTX must navigate higher compliance overhead and qualifying redundant non-Chinese supply lines for guidance systems and radar transmit-receive modules. While long-term government contracts permit partial cost pass-through, fixed-price development tranches and delayed deliveries create temporary margin drag across Collins and Raytheon programs.	Not available	-10.0%
Legacy Fixed Price Development Contract	Lingering legacy fixed-price development contracts across defense electronics and classified space payloads remain susceptible to cumulative wage and component inflation. Cost-to-complete reassessments generate periodic EAC gross margin write-downs, diluting otherwise strong production-phase profitability. Because firm-fixed-price terms allocate developmental overruns to the contractor, these legacy commitments intermittently depress Raytheon's segment margins below corporate target thresholds, creating quarter-to-quarter earnings volatility.	Not available	-8.0%

Tail opportunities

Tail opportunities supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
NATO Defense Spending Mandate Increases Procuremen	A formal allied consensus raising baseline NATO defense expenditure targets to 3.0% of GDP by 2028 would catalyze unprecedented foreign military sales for Raytheon. Triggered by persistent European theater instability, allied nations would accelerate multi-tier air defense acquisitions, specifically Patriot PAC-3, NASAMS, and LTAMDS radars. This surge would lift international defense operating margins above 15% and expand Raytheon backlog by over $40 billion. The event remains at 35% probability due to European fiscal consolidation constraints.	35.0%	+28.0%
Accelerated NEXT GEN Adaptive Engine Selection VIC	Pratt & Whitney securing sole-source or majority allocation on the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion program by 2028 would lock in a multi-decade military propulsion monopoly. Triggered by superior thermal management performance in flight demonstrators, this award would establish a franchise exceeding the F135 program in lifetime value. It would add $1.5 billion in annual high-margin development revenue and re-rate RTX's enterprise multiple. Probability is restricted to 25% due to intense competitive bidding from GE Aerospace.	25.0%	+24.0%

Tail risks

Tail risks supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Severe SUB TIER Rocket Motor Catastrophic Bottlene	A systemic failure or prolonged safety shutdown at primary solid rocket motor manufacturing facilities by late 2027 would halt deliveries across Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and Standard Missile production lines. Triggered by chemical precursor contamination or industrial accidents, this bottleneck would prevent RTX from converting its record munitions backlog into billable revenue. The resulting inventory buildup would strand $3 billion in working capital, compressing operating margins by 200 basis points. The probability is 20% due to DoD-funded dual-sourcing mitigation.	20.0%	-26.0%
Synchronized Global Commercial Aerospace Traffic C	An escalated stagflationary shock or severe geopolitical shipping route closure driving sustained oil prices above $120 per barrel in 2027 could trigger sharp global airline capacity cuts. Commercial flight hours would plummet, depressing high-margin spare parts provisioning and aftermarket shop visits across Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney. This drop-through contraction would reduce consolidated free cash flow by over 25%, causing multiple derating. Probability is capped at 18% given structural fleet modernization imperatives and airline route resilience.	18.0%	-22.0%

Step-by-step forecast path

Universal Investor forecast path for prediction task predrqst_batch_task__xrefsubjtskconf_3e3b6efa-7565-509b-a841-2c6c7db1d109__sb7__20260920053028116336
Step	Forecast date	Step change	Projected value (USD)	Scenario rationale
1	December 18, 2026	+4.0%	201.76	Accelerating Tomahawk production and debt reduction toward pre-accelerated-share-repurchase levels reinforce balance sheet resilience. Robust commercial aftermarket demand at Collins Aerospace offsets macro interest-rate headwinds, lifting shares as investors price solid full-year execution.
2	March 18, 2027	+5.0%	211.85	RTX beats fiscal 2026 guidance with free cash flow surpassing $8.7 billion, prompting optimistic 2027 targets. Accrued powder metal liabilities fall to negligible levels, driving multiple expansion as operational risks recede and defense backlog converts.
3	June 18, 2027	+3.0%	218.20	First-quarter earnings confirm double-digit organic growth across commercial original equipment and aftermarket channels. Pratt & Whitney benefits from expanding GTF engine shop visits, while solid operating drop-through at Collins Aerospace sustains share price momentum.
4	September 18, 2027	+4.0%	226.93	Fiscal year-end Pentagon contracting converts multiyear munitions framework agreements into funded procurement orders for AMRAAM and SM-6 missiles. Expanding international defense order intake reinforces revenue visibility, insulating RTX from general macroeconomic volatility.
5	December 18, 2027	+3.0%	233.74	Annual missile production milestones are cleared as facility expansions double Tomahawk throughput. Diminishing warranty compensation payments and disciplined working capital management lift fourth-quarter cash generation, allowing shares to grind higher into year-end.
6	March 18, 2028	+4.0%	243.09	Full-year 2027 financial results show operating cash flow approaching $12 billion and free cash flow nearing $10 billion. Management authorizes a renewed multi-billion-dollar share repurchase authorization, triggering positive institutional re-rating across aerospace primes.
7	June 18, 2028	+2.0%	247.95	Collins Aerospace achieves its medium-term operating margin target of 19.5%, supported by proprietary parts sales and airline cabin retrofits. Progress in sub-tier casting and forging supplies eases delivery bottlenecks, sustaining steady operational compounding.
8	September 18, 2028	+3.0%	255.39	European NATO members accelerate Patriot missile defense deployments, driving international defense bookings higher. Sustained commercial airline utilization cushions against localized supply chain cost increases, leading to a modest quarterly share price appreciation.
9	December 18, 2028	+2.0%	260.50	The F135 Engine Core Upgrade transitions smoothly into initial low-rate production, cementing Pratt & Whitney's military revenue baseline. Cash deployment pivots toward regular quarterly share repurchases, providing consistent price support against seasonal market volatility.
10	March 18, 2029	+3.0%	268.31	Consolidated operating margins breach 12.5% in reported fiscal 2028 results as legacy fixed-price development contract drag dissolves. Management raises the dividend by 10%, corroborating structural cash generation and attracting conservative dividend-growth institutional capital allocations.
11	June 18, 2029	+2.0%	273.68	Global airline fleet hours hold steady despite elevated jet fuel prices, protecting high-margin Collins commercial aftermarket provisioning revenue. Lower powder metal inspection overhead improves Pratt & Whitney profitability, preserving equity value in a plateauing economic cycle.
12	September 18, 2029	+3.0%	281.89	The Department of Defense exercises option years on multiyear missile frameworks, injecting fresh backlog across air-defense programs. Capacity investments at Raytheon facilities translate into accelerated delivery cadence, driving quarterly revenue and profit expansion.
13	December 18, 2029	+2.0%	287.53	Pratt & Whitney reports improved on-wing time for GTF Advantage engines, reinforcing customer retention among leading commercial airlines. Strong year-end operational execution and recurring defense cash collections support steady share valuation.
14	March 18, 2030	+3.0%	296.15	Fiscal 2029 earnings showcase diluted EPS exceeding $9.50, driven by persistent buybacks and disciplined cost control. Free cash flow conversion remains comfortably above 90%, generating investor enthusiasm and supporting continued upward price trajectory.
15	June 18, 2030	+1.0%	299.11	A moderating commercial aircraft build rate is offset by resilient aftermarket demand and steady missile replenishment shipments. Operating cash flow remains robust, though valuation multiple expansion pauses as overall market growth moderates.
16	September 18, 2030	+2.0%	305.10	Raytheon secures pivotal developmental contracts for next-generation counter-hypersonic interceptors and collaborative combat aircraft avionics systems. Demonstrating robust franchise durability, this technological positioning reassures long-term growth investors, triggering steady multiple re-rating and stock outperformance.
17	December 18, 2030	+1.0%	308.15	Steady aftermarket parts consumption and automated manufacturing gains sustain high operating efficiency. Capital allocation remains balanced between dividend distributions, selective factory modernization, and ongoing share buybacks, maintaining firm price support.
18	March 18, 2031	+2.0%	314.31	Fiscal 2030 results confirm free cash flow crossing $11 billion and net leverage declining below 1.2x EBITDA. Rating agencies upgrade RTX's senior debt to A-tier, lowering refinancing spreads and enhancing equity shareholder returns.
19	June 18, 2031	+2.0%	320.60	Collins Aerospace wins next-decade avionics and cabin system architectural awards on major clean-sheet commercial aircraft programs. Expanding high-margin software-enabled content reinforces mid-teens segment return on capital, lifting equity valuation higher.
20	September 18, 2031	+1.0%	323.80	Long-term munition replenishment contracts mature into recurring programmatic fleet sustainment streams. RTX concludes the five-year forecast horizon with superior balance sheet health, defensive cash generation, and sustained multi-year dividend compounding.

Advisor and configuration

Advisor: universal_investor__the_polymath__google_gemini_3_8_flash__20260902_ga_release
Persona: Universal Investor
Archetype: The Polymath
Model: 2026-09-02 release
Provider: Google
Mode: RESEARCHER (Web Search Enabled) with High Reasoning and Standard Creativity
Task configuration: universal_investor__the_polymath__google_gemini_3_8_flash__20260902_ga_release__equity__json__extnd_invest_thesis_4q_alphassym__ts_num_desc__h5y_s3m__var1__researcher__standard_creativity_high_thinking__batch
Forecast horizon: 5 year
Forecast steps: 20 steps of 3 month
Assembly type: Balanced Assembly
Assembly name: universal_investor__the_polymath__google_gemini_3_8_flash__20260902_ga_release RESEARCHER Forecast Assembly
Input format: inmemory_base_placeholders__latest_eod_close_price_with_stats_and_fundamentals__var1
Output format: Equity Extended Investment Thesis (4 Quadrants and Alpha Asymmetry) + Pct Change Timeseries for Close Price with Rationale, (5Y Quarterly)

Read the complete Universal Investor advisor methodology

Configuration components

aiassmprmtcmpnt_b995bbe2-6a15-55be-a576-525904f696e8
aiassmprmtcmpnt_c55d1851-d218-5d30-b83b-54bbda31e2ee
aiassmprmtcmpnt_efec62e4-24c0-556a-8070-775c69b97643
aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa
aiassmprmtcmpnt_8115cc2a-d418-54b1-a616-49dfa91195f4

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