Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B.STO) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkPrice-adjusted rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+44.8%
Includes 0.25% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is straightforward and uncomfortable: Saab is compounding earnings faster than sales, and the market already owns it at a price assuming exactly that. SEK 318bn of backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry with 60% deliverable inside 2.5 years makes revenue near-certain through 2029 [1][3]; margin expansionmargin expansionAn increase in profit as a percentage of revenue.View full glossary entry to 11% proves execution [2]. But 44x trailing earnings against a 5% long rate means the multiple must be earned down by delivered profit rather than re-rated up by order headlines. Investors should expect earnings to roughly triple while the multiple roughly halves, producing solid but unspectacular compounding punctuated by diplomacy-driven drawdowns.
- FY2025 net income SEK 6.31bn on SEK 79.1bn revenue; base case assumes SEK 18-21bn net income by 2031.
- At 22-25x terminal earnings on ~541m shares, that supports roughly SEK 850-950 per share.
- Cross-check: implies SEK 460-515bn market capitalisation, plausible against SEK 175-200bn projected revenue.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (SEK) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 61.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-18 | 60.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-26 | 63.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-16 | 62.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-28 | 60.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-01 | 59.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-17 | 62.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-25 | 60.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-15 | 54.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-19 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 58.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-16 | 58.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-28 | 54.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-21 | 54.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-25 | 60.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-01 | 73.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-21 | 92.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-29 | 85.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-14 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-22 | 97.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-04 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-12 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-01 | 106 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-17 | 95.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-07 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-19 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-23 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-04 | 92.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-01 | 87.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-09 | 89.9 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-17 | 84.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-03 | 87.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-23 | 96.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-04 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-12 | 88.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-20 | 93.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-06 | 99.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 100 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-03 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-15 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-27 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-20 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-24 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-08 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-20 | 150 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-09 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 159 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-29 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-11 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-19 | 153 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-08 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-20 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-28 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-02 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-18 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-26 | 136 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-19 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-31 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-16 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-24 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-06 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-14 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-22 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-03 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-23 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-01 | 136 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-29 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-02 | 154 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-18 | 172 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-26 | 168 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-15 | 195 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-23 | 197 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-10 | 209 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-14 | 216 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-03 | 242 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-15 | 236 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-19 | 224 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 246 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-29 | 236 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-06 | 265 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-18 | 243 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-04 | 258 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-16 | 268 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-28 | 242 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 231 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-17 | 250 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-29 | 243 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-06 | 222 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-04 | 227 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 213 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-16 | 217 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-24 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-21 | 248 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-25 | 237 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-03 | 247 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 225 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 231 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 236 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-01 | 239 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 216 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-13 | 227 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 369 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-09 | 371 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-17 | 406 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-02 | 387 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-18 | 440 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 423 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-04 | 459 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-05 | 511 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 446 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-13 | 453 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-29 | 501 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-15 | 485 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-23 | 541 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-31 | 534 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-20 | 498 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-01 | 540 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-09 | 510 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-17 | 516 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-29 | 582 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-11 | 526 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-19 | 471 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-04 | 525 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-24 | 453 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-02 | 470 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-10 | 505 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-22 | 513 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-11 | 693 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-19 | 723 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 652 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-16 | 625 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-20 | 669 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-16 | 688 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-24 | 637 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-01 | 663 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 596 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-25 | 577 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 517 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-15 | 483 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-31 | 547 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-08 | 532 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-28 | 496 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-06 | 588 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-14 | 524 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-30 | 591 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-15 | 692 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-19 | 676 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-08 | 578 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-12 | 572 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-23 | 632 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 623 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 604 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 628 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 647 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 614 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 645 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 664 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 691 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 705 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 677 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 710 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 732 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 746 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 769 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 784 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 808 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 783 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 815 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 831 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 856 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 873 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 890 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when cash conversion breaks decisively above 60% and management publishes post-2027 targets anchored on margin rather than growth. Delivered cash validates the backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility., the free-cash-flow yield doubles toward 4%, and Saab stops being valued as a cyclical order-taker and starts being valued as a defence compoundercompounderA business or asset that can reinvest earnings or cash flows at attractive returns over an extended period.View full glossary entry with contracted revenue visibilityrevenue visibilityHow clearly future revenue can be estimated from contracts, subscriptions, or recurring demand patterns.View full glossary entry to 2035. Add one Orka-scale platform win, and the multiple holds in the low thirties while earnings triple — a materially higher share price than the base path.
Bear case
The bear case activates when a Ukraine settlement coincides with European fiscal retrenchment and a fixed-price programme provision. Order intake decelerates, the backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.-growth narrative that justified the premium stalls, and investors rediscover that a 2.15% free-cash-flow yield offers no support against 5% long rates. Naval or T-7A overruns would then hit margin and cash simultaneously, converting a de-rating into an earnings disappointment. The multiple compresses toward the high teens faster than earnings grow, and the shares trade well below today's price.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief is that European rearmament is a decade-long annuity and Saab is its best-run Nordic expression, so every dip is a buying opportunity. Yet sell-side consensus reads Hold with a SEK 572 average target below spot [17][18], and the sector trailed the Stoxx 600 this year [20]. The anchoring bias: investors watch order intake and ignore the discount ratediscount rateThe rate used to convert future cash flows or values into present value.View full glossary entry.
Alpha-gap assessment
Neither wildly underpriced nor euphoric — the crowd has the right company and the wrong entry arithmetic. It underestimates backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. durability and the naval/sensor mix that limits peace-headline beta to roughly a third of Rheinmetall's [21], while overestimating what a 44x trailing multiple can survive against a 5% long rate and a 2.15% free-cash-flow yield. The blind spot is duration, not defence: earnings likely triple, the multiple likely halves, and the shares compound at a respectable but unspectacular high-single-digit rate.
Convergence catalyst
The October 2026 Q3 print, carrying the SEK 24.6bn Ukraine Gripen booking, then the FY2026 results and any post-2027 target refresh. Recognition arrives when cash conversion clears 60% rather than when orders clear consensus; the first observable sign is margin, not backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility., leading the narrative.
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