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SAAB-B.STO
Saab AB (publ)
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Nordic defense and aerospace group focused on combat aircraft, sensors, surveillance, and advanced military systems.

HQ: SwedenListed: Sweden

AI Opinions

Compare independent AI Advisor forecasts, ratings, scenarios, risks, configurations, sources, and step-by-step prediction paths for Saab AB (publ).

Saab AB (publ) (SAAB-B.STO) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is straightforward and uncomfortable: Saab is compounding earnings faster than sales, and the market already owns it at a price assuming exactly that. SEK 318bn of with 60% deliverable inside 2.5 years makes revenue near-certain through 2029 [1][3]; to 11% proves execution [2]. But 44x trailing earnings against a 5% long rate means the multiple must be earned down by delivered profit rather than re-rated up by order headlines. Investors should expect earnings to roughly triple while the multiple roughly halves, producing solid but unspectacular compounding punctuated by diplomacy-driven drawdowns.

  • FY2025 net income SEK 6.31bn on SEK 79.1bn revenue; base case assumes SEK 18-21bn net income by 2031.
  • At 22-25x terminal earnings on ~541m shares, that supports roughly SEK 850-950 per share.
  • Cross-check: implies SEK 460-515bn market capitalisation, plausible against SEK 175-200bn projected revenue.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in SEK.-29.32221.53472.38723.24974.09Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in SEK.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (SEK)
Observed price2021-09-1461.4
Observed price2021-09-1860.6
Observed price2021-09-2663.4
Observed price2021-10-1662.7
Observed price2021-10-2860.3
Observed price2021-11-0159.7
Observed price2021-11-1762.6
Observed price2021-11-2560.2
Observed price2021-12-1554.8
Observed price2021-12-1954.9
Observed price2022-01-0858.5
Observed price2022-01-1658.7
Observed price2022-01-2854.9
Observed price2022-02-2154.3
Observed price2022-02-2560.6
Observed price2022-03-0173.0
Observed price2022-03-2192.1
Observed price2022-03-2985.2
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Observed price2022-08-0492.8
Observed price2022-08-1694.2
Observed price2022-09-0187.7
Observed price2022-09-0989.9
Observed price2022-09-1784.2
Observed price2022-10-0387.7
Observed price2022-10-2396.5
Observed price2022-11-04100
Observed price2022-11-1288.1
Observed price2022-11-2093.6
Observed price2022-12-0699.4
Observed price2022-12-14100
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Observed price2026-09-23632
Observed price2026-09-25623
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18604
Published advisor forecast2026-12-18628
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18647
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18614
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18645
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18664
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18691
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18705
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18677
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18710
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18732
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18746
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18769
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18784
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18808
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18783
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Published advisor forecast2030-12-18831
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18856
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18873
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18890

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when cash conversion breaks decisively above 60% and management publishes post-2027 targets anchored on margin rather than growth. Delivered cash validates the , the free-cash-flow yield doubles toward 4%, and Saab stops being valued as a cyclical order-taker and starts being valued as a defence with contracted to 2035. Add one Orka-scale platform win, and the multiple holds in the low thirties while earnings triple — a materially higher share price than the base path.

Bear case

The bear case activates when a Ukraine settlement coincides with European fiscal retrenchment and a fixed-price programme provision. Order intake decelerates, the -growth narrative that justified the premium stalls, and investors rediscover that a 2.15% free-cash-flow yield offers no support against 5% long rates. Naval or T-7A overruns would then hit margin and cash simultaneously, converting a de-rating into an earnings disappointment. The multiple compresses toward the high teens faster than earnings grow, and the shares trade well below today's price.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that European rearmament is a decade-long annuity and Saab is its best-run Nordic expression, so every dip is a buying opportunity. Yet sell-side consensus reads Hold with a SEK 572 average target below spot [17][18], and the sector trailed the Stoxx 600 this year [20]. The anchoring bias: investors watch order intake and ignore the .

Alpha-gap assessment

Neither wildly underpriced nor euphoric — the crowd has the right company and the wrong entry arithmetic. It underestimates durability and the naval/sensor mix that limits peace-headline beta to roughly a third of Rheinmetall's [21], while overestimating what a 44x trailing multiple can survive against a 5% long rate and a 2.15% free-cash-flow yield. The blind spot is duration, not defence: earnings likely triple, the multiple likely halves, and the shares compound at a respectable but unspectacular high-single-digit rate.

Convergence catalyst

The October 2026 Q3 print, carrying the SEK 24.6bn Ukraine Gripen booking, then the FY2026 results and any post-2027 target refresh. Recognition arrives when cash conversion clears 60% rather than when orders clear consensus; the first observable sign is margin, not , leading the narrative.

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