AI Consensus Investment Thesis
RTX: RTX Stock Price, Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year and 5 Year Targets
RTX: 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook and Rating
RTX (RTX) has an immediate Hold & Monitor consensus AI recommendation, based on 14 AI analysts.
The 1-year target is $203 for , with +5.00% expected return (+5.97% including net dividends) and a NEUTRAL rating.
The 5-year target is $262 for , with +35.51% expected return (+42.45% including net dividends) and a NEUTRAL rating.
Latest available market price: USD 193, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 1.02%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 1.46% · Two-year annualized gross: 1.41%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Original published assumption: 1.6% per year.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
Targets retain their original publication dates. Returns use the dated market close and the time remaining to each fixed target date. Current ratings also require fresh quotes and analysis, with more than 90 days remaining. Past targets have no forward return. Eligibility checked .
RTX Flagship Insight
Unpacking Aerospace Backlog Valuation Compression Amid Soaring Sovereign Defense Windfalls
Synthesizing input reports reveals high consensus that record backlogs and commercial aftermarket annuities drive powerful cash-flow expansion. However, sharp divergence persists regarding whether five percent bond yields will force multiple derating, counteracting operational gains and capping five-year equity price appreciation.
How were the Investment Thesis and Forecasts created?
14 AI advisors, guided by 9 analytical frameworks, contribute to the deep analysis by iPulse AI Engine.
Universal Investor (Polymath)
Elon Musk (Visionary)
Superintelligence (Anthropologist)
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower)
Warren Buffett (Value Purist)
Ray Dalio (Strategist)
Michael Burry (Vulture)
Machiavelli (Insider)
J.P. Morgan (Titan)
Ran across these frontier AI models
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
Latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
RTX: forecast questions
What is RTX (RTX)'s 1-year price forecast?
RTX's 1-year target is $203 for Sept 2027. The current AI rating is NEUTRAL. The expected return from the recorded close is +5.00%, or +5.97% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 193, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is RTX (RTX)'s 5-year price forecast?
RTX's 5-year target is $262 for Sept 2031. The current AI rating is NEUTRAL. The expected return from the recorded close is +35.51%, or +42.45% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 193, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is the return basis?
Latest available market price: USD 193, as of 20 Oct 2026. These are model projections, not guaranteed future prices.
How can I compare the AI opinions and audit past RTX forecasts?
14 AI analysts contribute to this publication. AI Opinions shows individual advisor forecasts and reasoning. Forecast History preserves earlier published batches; their figures describe their original publication, not today's outlook.
How does an AI-generated forecast for RTX differ from Wall Street analyst consensus?
Wall Street consensus aggregates estimates from human analysts. For listed companies, these typically include brokerage price targets, earnings forecasts and ratings. iPulse AI's forecast for RTX is a separate AI consensus generated through its own research workflow. Different inputs, forecast dates, assumptions and weighting can therefore produce different targets.
We believe the era of investment research conducted only by human analysts is drawing to a close. Frontier models increasingly match or exceed expert work on selected professional benchmarks, including evaluations covering financial analysis. Research on multi-model synthesis also shows that combining model responses can improve on a single model's output in the tasks studied.
iPulse AI generates transparent investment research and market forecasts using a swarm of AI configurations, analytical frameworks and frontier models. The workflow applies multiple verification, challenge and synthesis layers, with selective editorial review under Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief. Published assumptions, disagreements and past forecasts remain available so readers can inspect the reasoning and audit outcomes.
For a research cycle covering 426 assets with 14 perspectives per asset, our internal workload model estimates approximately 114,000 hours of traditional analyst work. It assumes 16 hours per individual research report, 28 hours per consensus for synthesis and validation, plus shared data preparation. Parallel AI execution allows a deep-analysis cycle across hundreds of assets to complete in up to one day. The human-hours figure is an illustrative workload estimate, rather than measured time savings. Our research methodology explains the automated workflow.
RTX: Investment Thesis Summary
Dotted terms link to the glossary; hover or focus for a preview. Browse technical terms
If you invest $10,000 in RTX at the latest market close (20 Oct 2026): $14,245 by Sept 2031 versus $13,751 for S&P 500 benchmark.
Returns use the same dated market close, fixed targets and remaining dividend period as the forecast table.
* Return is calculated incl. 1.0% net dividend yield for RTX.
The central investment thesis establishes an operational recovery anchored by a record $289 billion backlog and a captive commercial aftermarket annuity, counterbalanced by valuation multiple compression. While high-margin commercial flight hours and multi-year munitions block-buys expand operating margins toward 12.5% and push normalized free cash flow past $11 billion, current pricing near 27x forward earnings leaves virtually zero equity risk premium against five percent sovereign yields. As fixed-price defense cost drag dissipates and geared turbofan warranty outlays subside, operational earnings expansion will primarily serve to offset multiple de-rating back toward through-cycle industrial medians of 21x to 22x earnings.
Key insights
- Sustained commercial flight hours and deferred narrowbody retirements create an inflation-indexed aftermarket cash engine, driving Collins segment operating margins toward twenty percent.
- Sovereign capital-allocation restrictions and executive buyback bans eliminate artificial per-share earnings leverage, forcing investors to rely strictly on organic operational throughput.
- Thermodynamic factory throughput limits and sub-tier casting shortages constrain backlog-to-cash conversion velocity, making top-line delivery pacing the critical thesis bottleneck.
RTX: 5 Year Consensus Forecast
20 quarterly price targets, returns and rationale, with advisor range and benchmark
Forward returns are updated using the latest market close price of USD 193, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 1.02%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 1.46% · Two-year annualized gross: 1.41%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Original published assumption: 1.6% per year.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
The consensus target follows an expert-weighted price path synthesized from 14 AI advisor opinions. See Opinion weights and rationale for the exact allocation and reasoning.
Forecast methodology and reference values
Published targets are anchored on 18 Sept 2026 at USD 194. Original quarter-to-quarter target changes are retained. Forward returns use the remaining time to each fixed target date.
The pessimistic and optimistic advisor base cases are the lowest and highest published advisor base-case targets for each quarter. The advisor at either extreme can change between quarters. Benchmark values are in USD.
Scroll the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Evidence-Weighted Consensus Price Path | Individual Advisor Range & Reference Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus target (USD) | Forecast quarter-to-quarter price change | Forward price return | Forward return incl. net dividends | Forecast rationale | Pessimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | Optimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | |
| $195 | +0.68% | +0.86% | +1.02% | Steady commercial aftermarket demand and initial Tomahawk award billing support earnings, but five percent benchmark Treasury yields and year-end multiple compression restrain broad industrial equity advances. | $188 | $202 | $750 | |
| $196 | +0.41% | +1.38% | +1.80% | Conservative full-year guidance reconciles recurring cash flow against advance billing timing, while suspended share buybacks and restrictive monetary policy temper institutional valuation multiples despite solid top-line revenue. | $184 | $212 | $736 | |
| $200 | +2.09% | +3.44% | +4.14% | Expanding commercial airline flight hours drive lucrative spares volume through Collins Aerospace, overcoming fixed-price defense program cost inflation and prompting positive operational earnings drop-through. | $179 | $218 | $743 | |
| $203 | +1.21% | +5.00% | +5.97% | Allied munitions procurement tranches accelerate defense backlog conversion, but specialized aerospace casting delays and tariff-induced raw material expenses keep quarterly margin expansion in check. | $177 | $227 | $755 | |
| $209 | +2.90% | +8.10% | +9.38% | Declining powder metal customer compensation payments liberate operational cash flow, allowing strong year-end defense billings and improved shop-visit throughput to drive moderate share price appreciation. | $181 | $234 | $776 | |
| $211 | +1.02% | +9.13% | +10.71% | Reported annual cash generation confirms operational stabilization above guidance floors, yet ongoing congressional defense appropriation debates and restrictive policy rates restrict broader equity multiple re-rating. | $182 | $243 | $787 | |
| $215 | +2.03% | +11.20% | +13.10% | Collins Aerospace achieves higher operating margins on robust commercial retrofit activity, while Pratt's new engine deliveries gradually scale, offsetting localized labor inflation across manufacturing centers. | $186 | $248 | $803 | |
| $218 | +1.33% | +12.75% | +14.97% | International air defense shipments expand foreign military sales mix, maintaining stable operating income that counterbalances election-cycle defense budget posturing and industrial valuation consolidation. | $182 | $255 | $812 | |
| $222 | +1.85% | +14.82% | +17.37% | Post-election legislative clarity establishes firm multi-year procurement funding, while factory automation investments debottleneck missile integration lines, powering solid year-end cash collections. | $186 | $260 | $839 | |
| $225 | +1.40% | +16.38% | +19.26% | Full-year results reflect the near-total expiration of fleet inspection compensation penalties, enabling management to expand dividend distributions and demonstrate structural balance sheet de-leveraging. | $188 | $268 | $851 | |
| $229 | +1.93% | +18.44% | +21.69% | Commercial narrowbody flight-hour maintenance delivers dependable cash generation, though late-cycle macroeconomic moderation and high jet fuel prices temporarily slow discretionary airline cabin interior upgrades. | $192 | $274 | $872 | |
| $233 | +1.67% | +20.51% | +24.13% | Transition of next-generation radar systems and hypersonic defense programs into initial low-rate production provides high-margin defense revenue, preserving predictable operating margins and steady price performance. | $190 | $282 | $886 | |
| $238 | +2.23% | +23.10% | +27.12% | Multi-year missile production facilities achieve targeted efficiency run-rates, lowering unit manufacturing overhead and driving robust fourth-quarter free cash flow conversion across core operating segments. | $192 | $288 | $910 | |
| $240 | +0.74% | +24.13% | +28.51% | Potential regulatory easing or performance clearance allows selective resumption of share repurchases, reinforcing per-share earnings growth against a backdrop of mature through-cycle industrial valuation multiples. | $194 | $296 | $916 | |
| $245 | +1.87% | +26.72% | +31.52% | The installed geared turbofan commercial fleet enters its primary heavy maintenance cycle, driving record aftermarket service volume and lifting Pratt & Whitney segment margins toward long-term targets. | $195 | $299 | $937 | |
| $248 | +1.22% | +28.27% | +33.47% | Allied sovereign defense budgets plateau into steady sustainment procurement, keeping defense order books fully utilized while overall top-line expansion stabilizes near historical industrial norms. | $192 | $305 | $947 | |
| $252 | +1.92% | +30.34% | +35.97% | Substantial annual free cash generation exceeding eleven billion dollars supports further balance sheet optimization, providing defensive valuation support as long-duration equity risk premia normalize. | $193 | $308 | $970 | |
| $255 | +1.19% | +31.89% | +37.93% | First-quarter military propulsion sustainment revenues from the global fighter fleet provide dependable baseline cash flow, insulating consolidated operational results from broader macroeconomic softening. | $195 | $314 | $980 | |
| $259 | +1.65% | +33.96% | +40.45% | Collins Aerospace deploys advanced digital avionics and power architectures across commercial fleet retrofits, generating high cash drop-through that sustains modest, orderly capital appreciation. | $197 | $321 | $1,000 | |
| $262 | +1.15% | +35.51% | +42.45% | The five-year forecast horizon closes with operating earnings fully normalized, as steady aftermarket cash flow and contracted defense manufacturing balance terminal multiple compression near historical averages. | $195 | $324 | $1,012 | |
Show remaining 18 quartersShow first 2 quarters only
All 20 quarters are displayed in the table above.
RTX Stock Analysis & Scenarios Deep Dive
RTX: Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? The prevailing crowd narrative views the business as an impregnable geopolitical hedge and commercial aerospace compounder. Market participants anchor heavily on the record $289 billion order book and rising global defense budgets, assuming the resolution of engine inspection issues guarantees flawless double-digit cash flow expansion. Sell-side research largely overlooks restrictive interest rates and defense buyback restrictions, treating peak valuation multiples as permanently sustainable.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd overestimates valuation durability under five percent sovereign discount rates while misinterpreting trailing cash metrics. Trailing free cash flow of $12.0 billion overstates recurring yields due to depressed prior-year comparators, whereas management's normalized outlook implies an unexceptional 3.2% free cash flow yield. Furthermore, investors fixate on headline defense bookings while missing the structural pricing power inside proprietary commercial flight-hour agreements, which provide the authentic compounding foundation.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? The convergence catalyst will trigger as audited 2026-2027 financial disclosures demonstrate normalized free cash flow tracking the $8.50 to $8.75 billion range rather than trailing extrapolations. When rising volume converts into cash alongside persistent share-buyback suspensions and five percent bond yields, institutional investors will reprice the stock toward historical industrial valuation multiples despite healthy underlying revenue growth.
RTX: Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed and Fear Sentiment
- Greed
- Volatility Regime
- Moderate
- Convergence Cycle Position
- Momentum
Sentiment assessments agree on strong operational momentum but sharply diverge over whether current market pricing reflects a speculative overshoot. Bullish perspectives view valuation as anchored by scarce defense capacity, while cautious analyses highlight multiple de-rating risk against elevated sovereign discount rates.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macroeconomic backdrop represents a mixed regime. Geopolitical conflict and non-discretionary sovereign defense rearmament provide an enduring demand tailwind that insulates order backlogs from consumer economic weakness. However, a restrictive monetary policy regime featuring policy rates near 4.00% and 10-year Treasury yields touching 5.0% acts as a persistent valuation headwind, mechanically compressing capital-intensive industrial multiples.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The decisive analytical disagreement centers on the terminal valuation multiple and the durability of capital returns. Optimistic perspectives assume that unassailable defense indispensability and an expanding commercial aftermarket annuity will preserve a premium price-to-earnings multiple above 24x. Conversely, conservative analyses argue that five percent Treasury yields, tangible equity deficits, and executive restrictions on buybacks make multiple compression toward 20x inevitable. Resolving this tension requires observing whether full-year 2026-2027 free cash flow conversion exceeds guided baselines without working-capital bottlenecks, and whether the Pentagon permits buybacks to resume.
RTX: Critical Influencing Factors
Near-certain positive forcesTop Drivers & Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign Munitions Replenishment Supercycle | Political And Geopolitical | +24% | +30% | Multi-theater geopolitical conflicts have depleted Western missile arsenals, prompting multi-year sovereign procurement authorizations for Patriot, AMRAAM, and Tomahawk effectors. This non-cyclical replenishment demand expands Raytheon backlog and guarantees sustained production line utilization, driving operating margins toward 13% across defense manufacturing programs through 2031. |
| Commercial Aerospace Aftermarket Annuity | Competitive Positioning | +20% | +25% | OEM delivery delays force airlines to extend legacy narrowbody airframe lifecycles, generating sustained flight-hour billing and high-margin shop visits across Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney. Proprietary component intellectual property provides exceptional pricing power, structurally lifting Collins segment operating margins toward 20% and generating predictable, inflation-indexed cash flows. |
| Powder Metal Fleet Normalization | Operational Efficiency | +15% | +18% | The geared turbofan powder metal inspection campaign is transitioning from an acute liquidity drain into a standard maintenance workflow. Aircraft-on-ground counts are falling significantly while airline compensation payments run off, liberating billions in trapped operating cash flow and lifting consolidated annual cash conversion back above 85% of net income. |
| Backlog Delivery Operational Leverage | Operational Efficiency | +12% | +16% | Converting a record $289 billion backlog into delivered systems amortizes fixed plant overhead across expanding commercial engine and advanced sensor volumes. Factory debottlenecking and automation investments reduce unit assembly costs, enabling consolidated operating margins to expand toward 12.5% as legacy fixed-price development drag burns off. |
Near-certain negative forcesTop Frictions & Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation Compression Under Restrictive Rates | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -16% | -3.0% | Trading at elevated trailing price-to-earnings multiples while 10-year Treasury yields linger near 5.0% generates severe discount rate friction. As equity risk premia normalize against risk-free sovereign yields, capital-intensive industrial multiples face mechanical downward compression toward historical medians of 20x to 22x, offsetting operational earnings gains. |
| Aerospace Sub-Tier Supply Bottlenecks | Operational Efficiency | -11% | -13% | Industry-wide structural deficits in specialized aerospace forgings, titanium castings, and cleared precision machinists throttle manufacturing throughput. Sub-tier supplier delivery delays prolong production cycles, forcing the company to maintain expensive work-in-process buffer inventories that tie up working capital and dilute intermediate return on invested capital. |
| Fixed-Price Defense Development Overhang | Regulatory | -9.0% | -11% | Legacy fixed-price development contracts across defense sensor and missile platforms remain exposed to cumulative labor and material inflation. Because government procurement rules strictly allocate cost overruns to contractors, unanticipated technical hurdles periodically trigger reach-forward accounting write-downs, diluting defense segment profitability despite expanding top-line volumes. |
| Regulatory Scrutiny on Capital Allocation | Capital Allocation | -8.0% | -6.0% | Executive orders and Department of Defense scrutiny over contractor capital distribution have curtailed share repurchases, forcing capital redirection into factory expansion and supplier support. Halting programmatic buybacks eliminates an artificial per-share earnings compounding engine, removing downside share price support during broad market consolidations. |
RTX: What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Event Risk Score: Low 25/100Asset-level relative pressure from clustered consensus frictions and tail risks. This is not the probability or risk score of an individual force.Plausible downside scenariosTail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary Commercial Fleet Metallurgical Crisis | 21% | -28% | Discovery of unexpected micro-cracking or structural fatigue across newer cohorts of high-pressure turbine disks by 2027 would trigger emergency airworthiness directives grounding hundreds of commercial airliners. The resulting catastrophe would ignite billions in fresh airline customer compensation liabilities, consume scarce depot repair capacity, and wipe out anticipated free cash flow for multiple quarters. |
| Statutory Defense Procurement Spending Sequestration | 25% | -22% | Severe sovereign debt consolidation pressures culminating in statutory budget caps or defense procurement freezes by late 2027 would stretch out munition delivery schedules. Bipartisan austerity measures targeting discretionary defense outlays would cancel follow-on missile options, leaving expanded manufacturing capacity underutilized, causing fixed-overhead unabsorption, and reducing projected defense operating income. |
Plausible upside scenariosTail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Dome Sovereign Mandate Award | 32% | +24% | A funded multi-tier homeland defense architecture award naming the company prime contractor for next-generation interceptors, sensors, and battle management by 2028 would unlock over $25 billion in sole-source bookings. This discrete government mandate would expand the defense backlog significantly, elevate international export pricing power, and drive an institutional valuation re-rating beyond base-case projections. |
| Next-Gen Commercial Narrowbody Propulsion Win | 24% | +22% | Securing exclusive or dominant propulsion supplier status on an accelerated clean-sheet narrowbody commercial jet platform by 2029 would cement thirty years of captive engine manufacturing and aftermarket cash flow. Completely shutting out rival engine consortia would dramatically expand the company's long-term terminal valuation, prompting analysts to aggressively upgrade multi-decade owner-earnings assumptions. |
Company Financial AnalysisRTX: Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included. View latest RTX financials here.
Earnings and financials
The financial trajectory reflects a powerful operational recovery, evidenced by revenue reaching $93.5 billion and net income climbing to $7.74 billion over the trailing twelve months through mid-2026. This performance marks a structural rebound from 2023, powered by accelerating commercial aftermarket flight hours at Collins and heavy munitions deliveries at Raytheon. However, reported trailing free cash flow of $12.02 billion overstates the normalized run-rate because it reflects depressed prior-year comparators and favorable customer advance payments. Management's official full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance of $8.50 to $8.75 billion provides the realistic cash baseline for long-term investors.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 88.6B | USD 6.7B | USD 7.9B |
| 2024 | USD 80.7B | USD 4.8B | USD 4.5B |
| 2023 | USD 68.9B | USD 3.4B | USD 5.5B |
| 2022 | USD 67.1B | USD 5.2B | USD 4.4B |
| 2021 | USD 64.4B | USD 3.9B | USD 4.7B |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37.1x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2024 | 32.7x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2023 | 35.9x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2022 | 28.7x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
| 2021 | 33.4x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
Operating margins have embarked on a structural ascent, recovering from 5.17% in 2023 to 10.50% in 2025 and widening past 11% in mid-2026. This resurgence is propelled by high-margin commercial spare parts and flight-hour agreements at Collins Aerospace, alongside tapering engine inspection penalties. A clear margin divergence persists across divisions. While commercial aerospace commands exceptional pricing power, Raytheon's defense margins face drag from legacy fixed-price development contracts and component inflation. Long-term operating margins will likely consolidate between 12% and 13% as manufacturing volume scales.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 9.3B | 10.5% | 7.6% |
| 2024 | USD 6.5B | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| 2023 | USD 3.6B | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| 2022 | USD 5.5B | 8.2% | 7.7% |
| 2021 | USD 5.1B | 8.0% | 6.0% |
Balance sheet and leverage
The balance sheet exhibits steady post-crisis de-leveraging, ending 2025 with $65.2 billion in shareholder equity and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61. Operating cash flows easily service obligations, maintaining interest coverage at a healthy 5.76 times operating profit. Nevertheless, investors must monitor off-headline exposures. Gross debt remains substantial near $37 billion, and over $80 billion in goodwill and acquired intangibles leaves tangible net worth deeply negative. Pausing share repurchases in 2026 appropriately preserves liquidity to fund customer warranty commitments and upcoming debt maturities.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Reported net cash / (debt) | Debt less (cash + short-term investments), calculated | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 39.5B | USD 7.4B | USD 32.1B net debt | USD 32.1B | 1.03x |
| 2024 | USD 42.9B | USD 5.6B | USD 37.3B net debt | USD 37.3B | 0.99x |
| 2023 | USD 45.2B | USD 6.6B | USD 38.7B net debt | USD 38.7B | 1.04x |
| 2022 | USD 33.5B | USD 6.2B | USD 27.3B net debt | USD 27.3B | 1.09x |
| 2021 | USD 33.1B | USD 7.8B | USD 25.3B net debt | USD 25.3B | 1.19x |
Reported net debt retains the source definition, which can deduct cash alone. Cash plus short-term investments is broader liquidity; the separately calculated column subtracts that full amount from total debt for the same fiscal period and currency. Reported net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
Management has maintained strict capital allocation discipline, with capital expenditures consuming roughly 3.0% of revenue in 2025 at $2.62 billion, while company-funded research and development settled near $2.81 billion. Rather than overbuilding new facilities, capital is targeted toward debottlenecking precision munitions lines and expanding engine maintenance depots. This restrained spending preserves near-term liquidity and supports strong free cash flow generation. Because the sovereign defense customer frequently co-invests in tooling and facility expansions, the business expands manufacturing capacity without diluting its returns on invested capital.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 2.6B | USD 2.8B |
| 2024 | USD 2.6B | USD 2.9B |
| 2023 | USD 2.4B | USD 2.8B |
| 2022 | USD 2.8B | USD 2.7B |
| 2021 | USD 2.3B | USD 2.7B |
Behind the synthesisRTX: How Each Individual AI Forecaster Opinion Shapes the Global Consensus
This publication’s recorded synthesis allocated voting influence across 14 advisor opinions. The weights and rationales below are retained from that synthesis.
The independently supported consensus demonstrates that the company possesses an unassailable commercial aerospace installed base and multi-year defense replenishment visibility, supported by a record $289 billion backlog. However, reports heavily diverge on whether operational earnings expansion can outrun valuation multiple compression in a five percent Treasury yield environment. Highly weighted opinions rely on verified primary disclosures, recognizing that trailing free cash flow of $12.0 billion overstates recurring owner yields compared to normalized forward guidance of $8.50 to $8.75 billion, while accounting for executive orders curbing share buybacks. Downweighted perspectives either extrapolate defense backlogs into flawless multiple expansion or assume catastrophic immediate defense spending cuts. The strongest contrarian case highlights the thermodynamic cost asymmetry of expending multi-million-dollar interceptors against low-cost drones, which caps long-term munitions pricing. Relative allocations reflect verifiable cash-conversion mechanics, disciplined multiple derating, and persistent tier-three aerospace supply-chain frictions.
All 14 opinions
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 · 2026-07-24 releaseWeight: 12.0%
Exemplary empirical rigor incorporating primary filings, executive orders on defense buyback restrictions, and realistic forward guidance cash yields. It correctly decouples headline order intake from distributable cash, providing an objective framework for valuation compression against sovereign bond yields.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra · 2026-09-03 releaseWeight: 12.0%
Outstanding evidence-based reconciliation of cash flow metrics, highlighting the difference between trailing accounting free cash and forward normalized guidance. Its treatment of capacity expansion, factory automation, and multiple contraction provides a highly defensible, realistic asset-level scenario.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 8.0%
Balanced perspective reconciling backlog conversion against higher sovereign discount rates. It correctly models operating income expansion from receding inspection liabilities alongside valuation compression, but slightly overestimates the speed of sub-tier casting and forging supply-chain recovery over the intermediate horizon.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 8.0%
Strong macroeconomic grounding regarding equity risk premia normalization against five percent Treasury yields and sovereign fiscal consolidation pressures. It offers rigorous multiple-derating logic, though it somewhat discounts the secular political insulation of replenishment appropriations in multi-theater geopolitical crises.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 8.0%
Provides thorough synthesis of defense block-buys and installed-fleet aftermarket compounding. Its recognition of multiple compression alongside free cash flow growth is causally sound, though it relies heavily on unbooked munitions agreements converting cleanly into double-digit operating margin expansion.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
The report presents sound causal reasoning on thermodynamic throughput limits, skilled aerospace labor friction, and interest rate gravity. Its technological obsolescence warnings regarding low-cost attritable drones are incisive, though it marginally underweights contractual backlog durability across long-cycle sovereign missile programs.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Accurately identifies the wide commercial aerospace moat and owner-earnings recovery as powder metal inspection contingencies wind down. However, the path assumes an aggressive multiple re-rating that understates macro cost-of-capital headwinds and persistent fixed-price defense development contract leakages.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Astutely diagnoses the absence of a margin of safety at thirty-four times trailing earnings. Its bifurcated margin analysis across commercial versus fixed-price military contracts is compelling, though its quarterly forecast path is excessively conservative regarding organic commercial aftermarket cash drop-through.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Sharp contrarian analysis identifying the thermodynamic cost asymmetry between expensive interceptors and cheap drone swarms. While multiple compression logic is robust, it overly penalizes baseline revenue visibility by assuming severe immediate defense budget retrenchment during active international conflicts.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.0%
This analysis captures genuine franchise durability and commercial aftermarket strength across aerospace divisions. However, it applies overly optimistic margin trajectories and downplays monetary friction, structural tariff costs, and the valuation drag of an elevated price-to-earnings multiple against higher risk-free sovereign yields.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.0%
Detail-rich on munitions frameworks and backlog scale, but exhibits material upside bias. It assumes near-frictionless production doubling and aggressive multiple expansion, downplaying five percent risk-free discount rates, supply-chain bottlenecks, and regulatory scrutiny on prime contractor capital returns.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.0%
Incisive political economy framing regarding the sovereign Arsenal of Freedom mandate and buyback restrictions. Nonetheless, it models an unrealistically bullish multiple expansion to 23x normalized peak earnings, understating the valuation ceiling imposed by prevailing monetary tightening.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.0%
Rigorous balance-sheet forensics highlighting negative tangible equity and negative equity risk premia. However, its terminal forecast path is excessively punitive, underestimating the pricing power of proprietary commercial flight-hour agreements and durable foreign military sales volume.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 4.0%
Solid analysis of the commercial aftermarket compounding cycle and powder metal transition. However, it relies heavily on external macro commentary and projects a relatively linear valuation path that understates geopolitical contracting friction and statutory budget reconciliation risk.
References & Context
Research Provenance
Analysis generated by iPulse AI Engine v7 using recorded market data, operating under the editorial standards and supervision of Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief.
External references below are sources recorded by the researcher agents for this RTX forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher web33 available sources from this batch (48 recorded). The first 15 are shown below; expand to read the rest.
- Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement federalreserve.gov
- News | RTX Reports Q2 2026 Results | RTX rtx.com
- 5 Elite Dividend Stocks Backed by America's Massive Defense Budget - 24/7 Wall St. 247wallst.com
- Lockheed Martin vs. RTX: Defense Spending Is Surging — Here's Who Wins - 24/7 Wall St. 247wallst.com
- Five Takeaways from Pratt's Farnborough Comeback Bid airwaysmag.com
- FIA 2026: Pratt & Whitney hails 'dramatic' improvement in A320 AOGs - Aviation Business News aviationbusinessnews.com
- Advanced Repair Development Highlights Pratt & Whitney MRO Investments | Aviation Week aviationweek.com
- Pratt & Whitney Sees High-Single-Digit MRO Growth This Year | Aviation Week aviationweek.com
- Raytheon Technologies Logo benzinga.com
- RTX Stock Forecast: Analyst Price Targets and Earnings Outlook bitget.com
- RTX (RTX) Reports $289B Record Backlog As Aerospace And Defense Demand Fuels Double-Digit Growth congress.net
- Pratt & Whitney GTF Recall: Airport Finance dwuconsulting.com
- Raytheon Stock Forecast: Policy Shock, Dividend and Buyback Risk | EBC Financial Group ebc.com
- White House seeks $17.5 billion for Golden Dome, but most funding hinges on reconciliation | Federal News Network federalnewsnetwork.com
- RTX raises 2026 guidance after double-digit sales growth drives Q2 results finance.yahoo.com
Show 18 more sources
- Defense companies like RTX and Anduril are feeling the heat on pay and stock buybacks after Trump's executive order | Fortune fortune.com
- Golden Dome Tracker: New Contract Awards and Hopes for New Space Infrastructure - GovCon Wire govconwire.com
- Understanding the President’s FY 2027 Budget Request for the Department of War | Insights | Greenberg Traurig LLP gtlaw.com
- RTX Earnings Lift 2026 Outlook | InsiderFinance insiderfinance.io
- RTX: Sell-Side Support Points to 20% Upside in 2026 | Investing.com investing.com
- 2025 RTX Annual Report investors.rtx.com
- Q2 2026 RTX Corp Earnings Call on July 23, 2026 / 11:30AM investors.rtx.com
- RTX Corporation at Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference on September 15, 2026 / 3:30PM investors.rtx.com
- RTX Reports Q1 2026 Results investors.rtx.com
- News | How RTX is using AI and data to transform aircraft maintenance | RTX rtx.com
- News | RTX reports 2025 results and announces 2026 outlook | RTX rtx.com
- News | RTX's Pratt & Whitney GTF Advantage™ engine achieves U.S. FAA type certification | RTX rtx.com
- News | RTX's Raytheon awarded seven-year contract for Tomahawk cruise missiles | RTX rtx.com
- News | RTX's Raytheon partners with Department of War on five landmark agreements to expand critical munition production | RTX rtx.com
- How Pratt & Whitney's GTF Engine Quietly Grounded More Jets Than Any Crisis In Decades simpleflying.com
- RTX (NYSE:RTX) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St simplywall.st
- RTX Corporation (RTX) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets stockanalysis.com
- RTX sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above ... tickeron.com
15 additional sources are recorded in this batch; their citation details are not available in this publication.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
Archived context covering 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31. Its recorded scope includes technology and capital cycle; trade and industrial policy; monetary policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
Show moreShow less
- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 13.3K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 22.7K tokens
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Archived context covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20. Its recorded scope includes monetary policy and rates; geopolitics energy and shipping; trade and industrial policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
Show moreShow less
- File size
- 84.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.4K words
- Characters
- 84.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 21.2K tokens
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental Context Passed as Input to the Models
Time range: Annual fiscal periods: 2014-12-31–2025-12-31, 12 periods; Quarterly fiscal periods: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods.
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
Show moreShow less
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
End of the paywalled preview
The excerpt from Deep Dive: detailed analysis to this notice is the simplified paywalled content included on this page. A signed-in, verified account with the required subscription provides the full interactive interface and the additional research, datasets and tools listed below.
Those additional materials are not included in this preview and cannot be revealed by removing its visual restrictions.
Additional with full access
Individual AI Advisor reports
- Investment theses
- Bull and bear scenarios and alpha signals
- Drivers, headwinds, risks and opportunities
- Quarterly forecast rationale
- Advisor research references and configuration
Additional datasets and interactive tools
- Interactive forecast comparisons
- Available detailed financial statements
- Market history and corporate-action adjustments
- Eligible historical publication workspaces
Explore complete public research examples
These public assets show the complete AI Consensus research. Their findings concern those assets, not this report.