Skip to main content
Assets
Roblox logo
RBLX.NYSE
Roblox
Communication Services · Interactive Home Entertainment

Online entertainment platform and game creation system allowing users to create, share, and play immersive 3D experiences.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Roblox.

Historical AI Forecasts

Roblox Corporation (RBLX.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 11 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 3 May 2026Deep analysis 3 May 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
J.P. Morgan AI advisor icon

J.P. Morgan AI

The Titan FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Strong Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+232.8%

RBLX.NYSE does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The Base Case projects a rocky but ultimately dominant 5-year recovery for Roblox, transitioning it from an 'Empire Under Siege' to an institutionalized monopoly. The short-term will be dominated by severe (the compressing spend) and intense legal scrutiny from state AGs over child safety. However, the core empire mechanics are unstoppable. Roblox's are compounding, with DAUs surging past 144 million. As the company implements expensive compliance architecture, this regulatory burden will paradoxically widen its moat, starving emerging competitors of oxygen. Over the 5-year horizon, RBLX absorbs the macro shocks and transitions from a high-growth youth platform into a globally dominant, AI-powered infrastructure, commanding a much higher structural valuation.

  • The clears via massive but structured fines by 2027, establishing an insurmountable compliance moat.
  • tools (4D objects, Assistant) hyper-accelerate developer creation, compressing costs and driving deep monetization.
  • The 17+ age demographic becomes the primary revenue driver, unlocking high-margin immersive brand advertising.
  • Global app store regulations gradually shift in RBLX's favor, incrementally improving .
  • The platform's imperial taxation model—retaining over 70% of generated value—yields immense .

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.13.2250.5887.94125.3162.65Apr 2021Oct 2023Apr 2026Oct 2028May 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-04-2774.3
Observed price2021-05-0965.3
Observed price2021-05-2182.5
Observed price2021-06-0299.9
Observed price2021-06-1881.1
Observed price2021-06-3090.0
Observed price2021-07-1677.6
Observed price2021-08-0177.9
Observed price2021-08-0985.5
Observed price2021-08-1778.7
Observed price2021-08-2590.3
Observed price2021-09-1482.3
Observed price2021-10-0870.4
Observed price2021-10-1271.9
Observed price2021-10-2483.5
Observed price2021-11-13108
Observed price2021-11-29129
Observed price2021-12-07116
Observed price2021-12-1598.0
Observed price2022-01-0495.2
Observed price2022-01-2858.2
Observed price2022-02-0970.5
Observed price2022-02-2148.6
Observed price2022-03-0150.2
Observed price2022-03-1337.5
Observed price2022-03-2950.9
Observed price2022-04-2234.4
Observed price2022-05-0434.9
Observed price2022-05-0825.7
Observed price2022-05-2831.3
Observed price2022-06-1326.5
Observed price2022-06-2129.6
Observed price2022-07-1539.8
Observed price2022-07-2339.5
Observed price2022-08-1251.1
Observed price2022-08-1647.8
Observed price2022-09-0537.9
Observed price2022-09-1343.9
Observed price2022-10-0734.8
Observed price2022-10-1134.6
Observed price2022-10-2746.5
Observed price2022-11-0839.1
Observed price2022-11-2830.9
Observed price2022-12-1433.1
Observed price2022-12-2226.4
Observed price2023-01-0327.9
Observed price2023-01-2737.8
Observed price2023-02-1234.6
Observed price2023-02-1643.6
Observed price2023-02-2836.6
Observed price2023-03-1645.3
Observed price2023-04-0946.4
Observed price2023-04-1740.2
Observed price2023-05-0334.2
Observed price2023-05-1940.0
Observed price2023-05-3141.9
Observed price2023-06-0838.9
Observed price2023-06-2438.3
Observed price2023-07-1443.0
Observed price2023-07-1845.5
Observed price2023-08-1129.8
Observed price2023-08-1529.8
Observed price2023-08-2326.4
Observed price2023-09-2425.9
Observed price2023-10-0630.5
Observed price2023-10-1830.2
Observed price2023-11-0334.9
Observed price2023-11-0735.1
Observed price2023-12-0140.5
Observed price2023-12-0540.7
Observed price2023-12-2546.3
Observed price2024-01-0243.0
Observed price2024-01-1838.9
Observed price2024-01-3039.1
Observed price2024-02-0744.7
Observed price2024-03-1041.3
Observed price2024-03-1836.2
Observed price2024-04-1139.3
Observed price2024-04-1935.3
Observed price2024-05-0539.8
Observed price2024-05-0930.4
Observed price2024-05-2132.5
Observed price2024-06-0635.6
Observed price2024-06-2235.8
Observed price2024-07-1240.5
Observed price2024-07-1641.3
Observed price2024-08-0536.5
Observed price2024-08-1338.8
Observed price2024-08-2544.0
Observed price2024-09-1446.0
Observed price2024-10-0442.0
Observed price2024-10-2040.2
Observed price2024-11-0151.4
Observed price2024-11-1353.1
Observed price2024-11-2549.2
Observed price2024-12-0353.5
Observed price2024-12-1560.8
Observed price2024-12-3157.9
Observed price2025-01-2467.1
Observed price2025-02-0575.5
Observed price2025-02-2162.5
Observed price2025-03-0563.3
Observed price2025-03-0954.9
Observed price2025-03-2562.0
Observed price2025-04-0652.7
Observed price2025-04-2262.1
Observed price2025-05-1681.3
Observed price2025-05-2081.7
Observed price2025-06-1397.2
Observed price2025-06-17101
Observed price2025-07-07108
Observed price2025-07-15112
Observed price2025-07-31138
Observed price2025-08-12130
Observed price2025-08-16118
Observed price2025-09-29142
Observed price2025-10-03123
Observed price2025-10-15139
Observed price2025-10-31114
Observed price2025-11-08106
Observed price2025-11-2490.6
Observed price2025-12-0696.7
Observed price2025-12-2282.0
Observed price2026-01-1584.7
Observed price2026-01-2374.1
Observed price2026-01-2772.1
Observed price2026-02-2062.0
Observed price2026-02-2868.3
Observed price2026-03-1256.3
Observed price2026-03-2852.2
Observed price2026-04-1760.3
Observed price2026-04-2161.3
Observed price2026-05-1141.3
Observed price2026-05-2347.6
Observed price2026-06-0842.3
Observed price2026-06-2447.9
Observed price2026-07-0657.0
Observed price2026-07-1454.5
Observed price2026-08-0336.7
Observed price2026-08-1136.2
Observed price2026-09-0443.3
Observed price2026-09-0844.8
Observed price2026-09-1451.3
Observed price2026-09-1847.8
Published advisor forecast2026-05-0145.1
Published advisor forecast2026-08-0147.8
Published advisor forecast2026-11-0151.7
Published advisor forecast2027-02-0157.9
Published advisor forecast2027-05-0163.7
Published advisor forecast2027-08-0168.7
Published advisor forecast2027-11-0172.2
Published advisor forecast2028-02-0167.8
Published advisor forecast2028-05-0177.3
Published advisor forecast2028-08-0184.3
Published advisor forecast2028-11-0190.2
Published advisor forecast2029-02-0195.6
Published advisor forecast2029-05-01100
Published advisor forecast2029-08-0195.4
Published advisor forecast2029-11-01105
Published advisor forecast2030-02-01113
Published advisor forecast2030-05-01120
Published advisor forecast2030-08-01126
Published advisor forecast2030-11-01135
Published advisor forecast2031-02-01143
Published advisor forecast2031-05-01150

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The Bull Case materializes if RBLX successfully forces a structural break in mobile app store monopolies AND monetizes its older demographic via high-RPM advertising without regulatory interference.

  • Global regulatory rulings eliminate the 30% Apple/Google tax, instantly funneling billions to RBLX's bottom line.
  • Gen-AI completely removes the barrier to game creation, expanding the creator class exponentially.
  • The platform becomes the default digital hangout for Gen Z and Gen Alpha, rendering traditional social media obsolete.
  • Operating earnings explode, forcing massive and a return to all-time highs.

Bear case

The Bear Case triggers if the regulatory 'antibodies' prove fatal rather than frictional, or if a massive developer revolt breaks the .

  • State AGs and the FTC secure a RICO/COPPA judgment that severely restricts microtransactions for users under 13.
  • Apple uses the child safety controversies as a pretext to evict Roblox from the App Store, severing mobile distribution.
  • The 75% platform take-rate causes top-tier developers to defect to Epic Games' Unreal Editor for Fortnite (UEFN).
  • Persistent permanently destroys the working-class allowance money that fuels Robux purchases.

Current crowd narrative

The noisy market views Roblox as a pandemic relic whose growth story has been fatally wounded by late-2025 child exploitation lawsuits, state AG investigations, and an inflation-squeezed consumer. The street fixates on the 65% crash from recent peaks, assuming the 'Warsh Shock' permanently impaired long-duration tech. The anchoring bias is that severe regulatory scrutiny and higher yields spell certain death for youth-oriented metaverse platforms, entirely ignoring the underlying acceleration of user engagement.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd misunderstands the nature of regulatory moats. While the state AG lawsuits impose severe short-term , they act as an insurmountable barrier to entry for any emerging competitor. Roblox already commands 144.5 million Daily Active Users; its is sovereign. By absorbing the legal shock and deploying AI-driven moderation, Roblox institutionalizes its dominion. The market is pricing regulatory execution, missing that Roblox is merely paying the inevitable toll of empire to secure permanent structural dominance over the 3D internet.

Convergence catalyst

The rollout of Roblox's high-margin advertising network targeted at the 17+ demographic, coupled with a manageable global settlement of the state AG lawsuits in early 2027. This transition will force the market to re-rate Roblox from a risky youth game to a mature, legally-fortified digital economy.

Complete advisor preview locked

Unlock this report and every AI Advisor

Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.

Sign in to check accessView Base planReturn to latest AI Consensus