Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD.NASDAQ) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 5 June 2026Deep analysis 5 June 2026
Superintelligence AI
Model rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+209.4%
HOOD.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
Robinhood is executing a structural transition that the market refuses to price. The 'True Pricetrue priceAn estimate of long-term fair value after temporary noise and short-term sentiment are filtered out.View full glossary entry' path involves surviving near-term transaction volatility while the underlying asset base compounds. The Q1 2026 drawdown was a fundamental misreading of the company's negentropy engine: despite crypto weakness, total platform assets surged to $345.4B and margin balances expanded. Over the five-year horizon, HOOD will mature from an attention-arbitrage platform to a foundational node in the retail financial network. As 'Trump Accounts' and IRA matching lock in sticky retirement capital, and prediction markets weaponize the news cycle, the company's unit economicsunit economicsRevenue, variable cost, contribution profit, and acquisition or retention economics measured for one customer, product, transaction, or operating unit.View full glossary entry will stabilize. The market capitalizationmarket capitalizationThe market value of an asset or company, commonly calculated for a company as share price multiplied by shares outstanding.View full glossary entry will expand significantly as the quality of earnings transitions from erratic trading fees to predictable net interest and subscription annuities, validating HOOD as a prime adaptive beneficiary of digitized finance.
- Net interest revenues compound systematically under the Warsh rate regime.
- Gold subscribers cross 10 million, cementing a durable software as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges.-like revenue base.
- Prediction markets (event contracts) offset cryptocurrency cyclicality by financializing geopolitical volatility.
- Bitstamp integration scales the UX internationally, vastly expanding the addressable user pool.
- High-margin software economics drive ROICreturn on invested capitalReturn on invested capital (ROIC) measures how efficiently a business generates after-tax operating profit from the capital invested in its operations.View full glossary entry structurally higher, attracting institutional value investors.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-07-22 | 38.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-07-30 | 35.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-08-07 | 55.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-08-15 | 48.3 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-04 | 43.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-08 | 40.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-24 | 44.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-06 | 42.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-22 | 39.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-26 | 39.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-11 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-19 | 29.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-05 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-13 | 19.70 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-29 | 17.11 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-10 | 15.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-26 | 12.41 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-03 | 14.15 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-19 | 11.69 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-23 | 10.86 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-27 | 11.88 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-04 | 13.83 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-08 | 11.24 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-12 | 11.43 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-28 | 10.09 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-10 | 9.27 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-14 | 10.50 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-30 | 10.14 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-15 | 7.05 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-23 | 7.98 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 9.12 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-17 | 8.55 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-06 | 10.49 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-14 | 10.98 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-22 | 9.04 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-15 | 11.25 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-23 | 9.44 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-27 | 9.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-05 | 10.76 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-06 | 12.11 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-10 | 9.27 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-22 | 9.09 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-04 | 9.78 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 9.58 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-28 | 7.70 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 8.11 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-21 | 9.58 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-25 | 9.69 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-02 | 11.14 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-18 | 10.24 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-10 | 9.01 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-26 | 8.63 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-03 | 9.76 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-07 | 10.00 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-27 | 8.82 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-09 | 9.11 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-17 | 8.46 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-25 | 8.60 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-14 | 9.95 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-22 | 9.45 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-08 | 10.93 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-12 | 11.94 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 12.87 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-05 | 11.30 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-17 | 10.07 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-02 | 11.04 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-14 | 10.57 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-08 | 9.89 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-12 | 9.29 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-28 | 8.96 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-05 | 9.62 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-09 | 7.93 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-29 | 8.92 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-03 | 9.47 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-19 | 13.17 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-27 | 13.26 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-16 | 10.93 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-05 | 10.56 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-09 | 11.55 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-13 | 11.84 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-04 | 16.63 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-12 | 16.39 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-28 | 20.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-01 | 19.41 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-21 | 17.00 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-11 | 16.45 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-15 | 18.52 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-23 | 19.24 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-08 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-12 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-24 | 21.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-22 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-26 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-30 | 20.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-07 | 17.12 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-04 | 19.11 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-12 | 21.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-16 | 22.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-28 | 23.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-10 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-30 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-03 | 24.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-23 | 37.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-01 | 37.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-17 | 41.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-21 | 38.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-06 | 42.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-14 | 41.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-30 | 53.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-15 | 64.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-27 | 48.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-11 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-23 | 47.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-27 | 44.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-08 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-20 | 40.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-10 | 55.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-14 | 61.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-03 | 71.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-07 | 74.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-27 | 83.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-01 | 92.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-17 | 105 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-02 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-10 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-18 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-03 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-15 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-01 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-09 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-17 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-02 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-18 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-22 | 110 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-04 | 137 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-01 | 114 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-05 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-13 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-29 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-02 | 89.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-22 | 73.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-26 | 79.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-14 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-22 | 72.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-30 | 65.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-19 | 91.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-01 | 73.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-25 | 74.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-29 | 94.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-06 | 83.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-18 | 108 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-26 | 98.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-04 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-20 | 99.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-01 | 87.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-17 | 96.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-25 | 112 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-06 | 120 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-16 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-18 | 120 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-06-04 | 88.3 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-04 | 95.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-04 | 101 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-04 | 111 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-04 | 106 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-04 | 118 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-04 | 128 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-04 | 147 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-04 | 154 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-04 | 148 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-04 | 162 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-04 | 179 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-04 | 190 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-04 | 186 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-04 | 201 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-04 | 221 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-04 | 232 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-04 | 225 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-04 | 241 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-04 | 263 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-04 | 273 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The 'everything works' outcome: Base Case dynamics are supercharged by rapid international expansion via Bitstamp and the successful launch of an AI-native autonomous trading agent for Gold subscribers. HOOD captures the lion's share of the millennial 'Great Wealth Transfer'.
- AI-driven portfolio management triggers hyper-growth in Net Deposits.
- Global scaling creates a borderless 24/7 liquidity network with zero marginal friction.
- Crypto cyclicality returns with a vengeance in 2027/2028, adding massive transaction alpha on top of base NIR.
- Market re-rates HOOD to a premium SaaSsoftware as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges.View full glossary entry/platform multiple as AUC crosses $1 Trillion.
Bear case
The structural failure outcome: The energy shockenergy shockA sudden disruption or price change in energy markets that affects inflation, demand, and operating costs.View full glossary entry deepens into a grinding stagflationary recessionstagflationary recessionAn economic contraction accompanied by persistent inflation.View full glossary entry, annihilating the retail demographic's discretionary capital. The casino empties out as survival imperatives overwrite speculative preferences.
- Persistent stagflationstagflationAn economic condition characterized by stagnant growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.View full glossary entry crushes the 0DTE options and margin book, leading to mass account liquidations.
- PFOF economics decay as market makers widen spreads, squeezing transaction margins.
- Geopolitical fragmentationgeopolitical fragmentationStructural shifts in global trade and policy impacting international business operations and market access.View full glossary entry blocks international expansion, trapping HOOD in a saturated, exhausted US market.
- The AI revolution bypasses the platform entirely as power-users migrate to direct API-driven algorithmic execution.
Current crowd narrative
The crowd currently prices Robinhood as a high-beta proxy for cryptocurrency and speculative options volumes. After a massive 2024-2025 run, the Q1 2026 earnings miss—driven by a 47% drop in crypto revenue—triggered a reflexive 30% drawdown. The media narrative oscillates between praising its retail dominance and condemning its revenue volatility. Anchoring bias is entirely tethered to daily Bitcoin prices and retail sentiment metrics; the crowd views HOOD as a casino vulnerable to the energy shockA sudden disruption or price change in energy markets that affects inflation, demand, and operating costs.'s squeeze on discretionary income, ignoring the compounding mechanics happening beneath the surface.
Alpha-gap assessment
The variant perceptionvariant perceptionAn investment view that differs from market consensus and assumes future outcomes will be better or worse than widely expected.View full glossary entry lies in Robinhood's thermodynamic transition from a chaotic transaction engine to a resilient asset-aggregator. The crowd obsessively tracks crypto volumes, completely mispricing the structural power of 24% Net Interest Revenue growth, a 36% surge in Gold subscribers (software as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges.-like annuity), and the aggregation of $345B+ in AUC. Robinhood is quietly locking in retirement assets and building a sticky ecosystem subsidized by the Warsh regime's high rates. The market is pricing a volatile retail casino, but the physics reveal an increasingly efficient, high-margin wealth utility capturing long-duration floatfloatThe number of shares available for public trading in the market.View full glossary entry.
Convergence catalyst
The convergence will occur when Net Interest Revenue and Gold Subscription revenues definitively eclipse transaction-based revenues for two consecutive quarters. As the market digests that Robinhood's baseline cash flow easily covers its fixed costsfixed costsCosts that do not change materially with production or sales volume over a relevant range and period.View full glossary entry regardless of retail trading volumes, the stock will re-rate from a cyclical brokerage multiple to a fintech platform multiple. Expected late 2026 or early 2027.
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