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HOOD.NASDAQ
Robinhood Markets
Financials · Financial Exchanges & Data

Commission-free trading platform democratizing finance with mobile-first app for stocks, options, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Robinhood Markets.

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD.NASDAQ) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 5 June 2026Deep analysis 5 June 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Superintelligence AI advisor icon

Superintelligence AI

The Anthropologist FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+209.4%

HOOD.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Robinhood is executing a structural transition that the market refuses to price. The '' path involves surviving near-term transaction volatility while the underlying asset base compounds. The Q1 2026 drawdown was a fundamental misreading of the company's negentropy engine: despite crypto weakness, total platform assets surged to $345.4B and margin balances expanded. Over the five-year horizon, HOOD will mature from an attention-arbitrage platform to a foundational node in the retail financial network. As 'Trump Accounts' and IRA matching lock in sticky retirement capital, and prediction markets weaponize the news cycle, the company's will stabilize. The will expand significantly as the quality of earnings transitions from erratic trading fees to predictable net interest and subscription annuities, validating HOOD as a prime adaptive beneficiary of digitized finance.

  • Net interest revenues compound systematically under the Warsh rate regime.
  • Gold subscribers cross 10 million, cementing a durable -like revenue base.
  • Prediction markets (event contracts) offset cryptocurrency cyclicality by financializing geopolitical volatility.
  • Bitstamp integration scales the UX internationally, vastly expanding the addressable user pool.
  • High-margin software economics drive structurally higher, attracting institutional value investors.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.-19.5860.3140.18220.06299.94Jul 2021Jan 2024Jun 2026Dec 2028Jun 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-07-2238.0
Observed price2021-07-3035.1
Observed price2021-08-0755.6
Observed price2021-08-1548.3
Observed price2021-09-0443.0
Observed price2021-09-0840.0
Observed price2021-09-2444.9
Observed price2021-10-0642.1
Observed price2021-10-2239.6
Observed price2021-10-2639.6
Observed price2021-11-1134.2
Observed price2021-11-1929.0
Observed price2021-12-0521.8
Observed price2021-12-1319.70
Observed price2021-12-2917.11
Observed price2022-01-1015.61
Observed price2022-01-2612.41
Observed price2022-02-0314.15
Observed price2022-02-1911.69
Observed price2022-02-2310.86
Observed price2022-02-2711.88
Observed price2022-04-0413.83
Observed price2022-04-0811.24
Observed price2022-04-1211.43
Observed price2022-04-2810.09
Observed price2022-05-109.27
Observed price2022-05-1410.50
Observed price2022-05-3010.14
Observed price2022-06-157.05
Observed price2022-06-237.98
Observed price2022-06-279.12
Observed price2022-07-178.55
Observed price2022-08-0610.49
Observed price2022-08-1410.98
Observed price2022-08-229.04
Observed price2022-09-1511.25
Observed price2022-09-239.44
Observed price2022-09-279.61
Observed price2022-10-0510.76
Observed price2022-11-0612.11
Observed price2022-11-109.27
Observed price2022-11-229.09
Observed price2022-12-049.78
Observed price2022-12-129.58
Observed price2022-12-287.70
Observed price2023-01-058.11
Observed price2023-01-219.58
Observed price2023-01-259.69
Observed price2023-02-0211.14
Observed price2023-02-1810.24
Observed price2023-03-109.01
Observed price2023-03-268.63
Observed price2023-04-039.76
Observed price2023-04-0710.00
Observed price2023-04-278.82
Observed price2023-05-099.11
Observed price2023-05-178.46
Observed price2023-05-258.60
Observed price2023-06-149.95
Observed price2023-06-229.45
Observed price2023-07-0810.93
Observed price2023-07-1211.94
Observed price2023-08-0112.87
Observed price2023-08-0511.30
Observed price2023-08-1710.07
Observed price2023-09-0211.04
Observed price2023-09-1410.57
Observed price2023-10-089.89
Observed price2023-10-129.29
Observed price2023-10-288.96
Observed price2023-11-059.62
Observed price2023-11-097.93
Observed price2023-11-298.92
Observed price2023-12-039.47
Observed price2023-12-1913.17
Observed price2023-12-2713.26
Observed price2024-01-1610.93
Observed price2024-02-0510.56
Observed price2024-02-0911.55
Observed price2024-02-1311.84
Observed price2024-03-0416.63
Observed price2024-03-1216.39
Observed price2024-03-2820.1
Observed price2024-04-0119.41
Observed price2024-04-2117.00
Observed price2024-05-1116.45
Observed price2024-05-1518.52
Observed price2024-05-2319.24
Observed price2024-06-0822.6
Observed price2024-06-1223.7
Observed price2024-06-2421.4
Observed price2024-07-2223.4
Observed price2024-07-2621.2
Observed price2024-07-3020.4
Observed price2024-08-0717.12
Observed price2024-09-0419.11
Observed price2024-09-1221.6
Observed price2024-09-1622.2
Observed price2024-09-2823.7
Observed price2024-10-1025.5
Observed price2024-10-3028.2
Observed price2024-11-0324.2
Observed price2024-11-2337.0
Observed price2024-12-0137.6
Observed price2024-12-1741.6
Observed price2024-12-2138.1
Observed price2025-01-0642.7
Observed price2025-01-1441.8
Observed price2025-01-3053.0
Observed price2025-02-1564.1
Observed price2025-02-2748.8
Observed price2025-03-1136.4
Observed price2025-03-2347.0
Observed price2025-03-2744.0
Observed price2025-04-0834.2
Observed price2025-04-2040.2
Observed price2025-05-1055.6
Observed price2025-05-1461.4
Observed price2025-06-0371.7
Observed price2025-06-0774.4
Observed price2025-06-2783.0
Observed price2025-07-0192.3
Observed price2025-07-17105
Observed price2025-08-02102
Observed price2025-08-10114
Observed price2025-08-18115
Observed price2025-09-03101
Observed price2025-09-15115
Observed price2025-10-01139
Observed price2025-10-09152
Observed price2025-10-17130
Observed price2025-11-02147
Observed price2025-11-18114
Observed price2025-11-22110
Observed price2025-12-04137
Observed price2026-01-01114
Observed price2026-01-05123
Observed price2026-01-13120
Observed price2026-01-29101
Observed price2026-02-0289.9
Observed price2026-02-2273.2
Observed price2026-02-2679.5
Observed price2026-03-1474.0
Observed price2026-03-2272.0
Observed price2026-03-3065.2
Observed price2026-04-1991.1
Observed price2026-05-0173.7
Observed price2026-05-2574.0
Observed price2026-05-2994.3
Observed price2026-06-0683.3
Observed price2026-06-18108
Observed price2026-06-2698.7
Observed price2026-07-04115
Observed price2026-07-2099.3
Observed price2026-08-0187.8
Observed price2026-08-1796.3
Observed price2026-08-25112
Observed price2026-09-06120
Observed price2026-09-16104
Observed price2026-09-18120
Published advisor forecast2026-06-0488.3
Published advisor forecast2026-09-0495.4
Published advisor forecast2026-12-04101
Published advisor forecast2027-03-04111
Published advisor forecast2027-06-04106
Published advisor forecast2027-09-04118
Published advisor forecast2027-12-04128
Published advisor forecast2028-03-04147
Published advisor forecast2028-06-04154
Published advisor forecast2028-09-04148
Published advisor forecast2028-12-04162
Published advisor forecast2029-03-04179
Published advisor forecast2029-06-04190
Published advisor forecast2029-09-04186
Published advisor forecast2029-12-04201
Published advisor forecast2030-03-04221
Published advisor forecast2030-06-04232
Published advisor forecast2030-09-04225
Published advisor forecast2030-12-04241
Published advisor forecast2031-03-04263
Published advisor forecast2031-06-04273

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The 'everything works' outcome: Base Case dynamics are supercharged by rapid international expansion via Bitstamp and the successful launch of an AI-native autonomous trading agent for Gold subscribers. HOOD captures the lion's share of the millennial 'Great Wealth Transfer'.

  • AI-driven portfolio management triggers hyper-growth in Net Deposits.
  • Global scaling creates a borderless 24/7 liquidity network with zero marginal friction.
  • Crypto cyclicality returns with a vengeance in 2027/2028, adding massive transaction alpha on top of base NIR.
  • Market re-rates HOOD to a premium /platform multiple as AUC crosses $1 Trillion.

Bear case

The structural failure outcome: The deepens into a grinding , annihilating the retail demographic's discretionary capital. The casino empties out as survival imperatives overwrite speculative preferences.

  • Persistent crushes the 0DTE options and margin book, leading to mass account liquidations.
  • PFOF economics decay as market makers widen spreads, squeezing transaction margins.
  • blocks international expansion, trapping HOOD in a saturated, exhausted US market.
  • The AI revolution bypasses the platform entirely as power-users migrate to direct API-driven algorithmic execution.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd currently prices Robinhood as a high-beta proxy for cryptocurrency and speculative options volumes. After a massive 2024-2025 run, the Q1 2026 earnings miss—driven by a 47% drop in crypto revenue—triggered a reflexive 30% drawdown. The media narrative oscillates between praising its retail dominance and condemning its revenue volatility. Anchoring bias is entirely tethered to daily Bitcoin prices and retail sentiment metrics; the crowd views HOOD as a casino vulnerable to the 's squeeze on discretionary income, ignoring the compounding mechanics happening beneath the surface.

Alpha-gap assessment

The lies in Robinhood's thermodynamic transition from a chaotic transaction engine to a resilient asset-aggregator. The crowd obsessively tracks crypto volumes, completely mispricing the structural power of 24% Net Interest Revenue growth, a 36% surge in Gold subscribers (-like annuity), and the aggregation of $345B+ in AUC. Robinhood is quietly locking in retirement assets and building a sticky ecosystem subsidized by the Warsh regime's high rates. The market is pricing a volatile retail casino, but the physics reveal an increasingly efficient, high-margin wealth utility capturing long-duration .

Convergence catalyst

The convergence will occur when Net Interest Revenue and Gold Subscription revenues definitively eclipse transaction-based revenues for two consecutive quarters. As the market digests that Robinhood's baseline cash flow easily covers its regardless of retail trading volumes, the stock will re-rate from a cyclical brokerage multiple to a fintech platform multiple. Expected late 2026 or early 2027.

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