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0857.HKEX
PetroChina
Energy · Integrated Oil & Gas

Chinese state-owned oil and gas company engaged in exploration, production, refining, and marketing of petroleum products.

HQ: ChinaListed: Hong Kong

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for PetroChina.

Historical AI Forecasts

PetroChina Company Limited (0857.HKEX) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 28 November 2025Deep analysis 28 November 2025

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

AI Advisor 1 AI

Independent Investor FrameworkAI Thinker

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+75.4%

Includes 6.19% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Global oil prices remain volatile but average in a constructive range of $75-$90 per barrel, supporting solid profitability in the upstream segment. China's economy grows at a moderate pace, ensuring stable demand for PetroChina's core products. The company continues its dual strategy: optimizing its fossil fuel operations for cash flow while making gradual, disciplined investments in natural gas and renewables. The dividend remains a key pillar of the investment case, with a consistent payout ratio providing a strong yield that supports the stock price and delivers a compelling total return for income-oriented investors.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in HKD.1.384.267.1310.0112.88Nov 2020May 2023Nov 2025May 2028Nov 2030Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in HKD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (HKD)
Observed price2020-11-232.56
Observed price2020-11-272.60
Observed price2020-12-092.34
Observed price2020-12-212.36
Observed price2021-01-142.58
Observed price2021-01-182.63
Observed price2021-01-302.35
Observed price2021-02-152.70
Observed price2021-03-113.00
Observed price2021-03-153.03
Observed price2021-04-082.77
Observed price2021-04-242.71
Observed price2021-05-063.03
Observed price2021-05-143.10
Observed price2021-06-033.37
Observed price2021-06-073.36
Observed price2021-06-273.81
Observed price2021-07-053.80
Observed price2021-07-253.25
Observed price2021-08-143.34
Observed price2021-08-223.07
Observed price2021-08-303.35
Observed price2021-09-233.79
Observed price2021-10-013.68
Observed price2021-10-174.08
Observed price2021-10-253.94
Observed price2021-11-063.46
Observed price2021-11-303.42
Observed price2021-12-123.56
Observed price2021-12-203.41
Observed price2022-01-133.89
Observed price2022-01-253.87
Observed price2022-02-104.13
Observed price2022-03-064.43
Observed price2022-03-104.06
Observed price2022-03-143.64
Observed price2022-03-304.09
Observed price2022-04-194.12
Observed price2022-04-273.73
Observed price2022-05-133.75
Observed price2022-05-294.17
Observed price2022-06-104.35
Observed price2022-06-263.72
Observed price2022-07-043.71
Observed price2022-07-123.55
Observed price2022-08-173.36
Observed price2022-08-253.65
Observed price2022-08-293.79
Observed price2022-09-183.41
Observed price2022-09-303.21
Observed price2022-10-083.40
Observed price2022-11-013.04
Observed price2022-11-173.38
Observed price2022-11-213.32
Observed price2022-12-153.56
Observed price2022-12-193.51
Observed price2023-01-123.72
Observed price2023-01-163.86
Observed price2023-02-014.22
Observed price2023-02-254.11
Observed price2023-03-094.42
Observed price2023-03-214.25
Observed price2023-04-064.84
Observed price2023-04-104.87
Observed price2023-04-305.38
Observed price2023-05-165.49
Observed price2023-06-015.20
Observed price2023-06-175.71
Observed price2023-06-295.42
Observed price2023-07-075.39
Observed price2023-07-195.80
Observed price2023-08-045.52
Observed price2023-08-125.84
Observed price2023-08-285.65
Observed price2023-09-055.84
Observed price2023-09-295.84
Observed price2023-10-075.56
Observed price2023-10-235.55
Observed price2023-11-085.03
Observed price2023-11-245.18
Observed price2023-12-104.85
Observed price2023-12-184.90
Observed price2024-01-075.41
Observed price2024-01-234.95
Observed price2024-01-275.73
Observed price2024-02-125.62
Observed price2024-02-246.24
Observed price2024-03-116.26
Observed price2024-04-047.13
Observed price2024-04-167.46
Observed price2024-05-027.10
Observed price2024-05-067.16
Observed price2024-05-308.04
Observed price2024-06-037.92
Observed price2024-06-277.57
Observed price2024-07-058.51
Observed price2024-07-256.95
Observed price2024-08-066.51
Observed price2024-08-186.86
Observed price2024-08-267.05
Observed price2024-09-115.61
Observed price2024-10-056.71
Observed price2024-10-176.11
Observed price2024-10-216.05
Observed price2024-11-145.51
Observed price2024-11-305.54
Observed price2024-12-085.85
Observed price2024-12-165.74
Observed price2025-01-096.14
Observed price2025-01-136.25
Observed price2025-02-025.96
Observed price2025-02-106.10
Observed price2025-03-065.78
Observed price2025-03-105.85
Observed price2025-03-306.29
Observed price2025-04-115.28
Observed price2025-05-015.89
Observed price2025-05-056.00
Observed price2025-05-296.64
Observed price2025-06-026.51
Observed price2025-06-147.32
Observed price2025-06-306.75
Observed price2025-07-247.46
Observed price2025-08-057.44
Observed price2025-08-137.69
Observed price2025-09-067.72
Observed price2025-09-187.29
Observed price2025-09-227.11
Observed price2025-10-127.29
Observed price2025-10-207.68
Observed price2025-11-138.96
Observed price2025-11-178.85
Observed price2025-12-118.26
Observed price2025-12-318.38
Observed price2026-01-088.06
Observed price2026-01-128.19
Observed price2026-02-059.22
Observed price2026-02-179.24
Observed price2026-03-0510.26
Observed price2026-03-1710.58
Observed price2026-03-2910.86
Observed price2026-04-1810.63
Observed price2026-04-3011.92
Observed price2026-05-0411.70
Observed price2026-05-0810.59
Observed price2026-06-0110.79
Observed price2026-06-258.73
Observed price2026-06-298.79
Observed price2026-07-2310.11
Observed price2026-08-129.51
Observed price2026-08-2010.03
Observed price2026-09-0910.43
Observed price2026-09-149.92
Observed price2026-09-169.79
Observed price2026-09-189.49
Published advisor forecast2025-11-278.74
Published advisor forecast2026-05-289.05
Published advisor forecast2026-11-289.32
Published advisor forecast2027-05-289.60
Published advisor forecast2027-11-289.88
Published advisor forecast2028-05-2810.14
Published advisor forecast2028-11-2810.40
Published advisor forecast2029-05-2810.64
Published advisor forecast2029-11-2810.88
Published advisor forecast2030-05-2811.10
Published advisor forecast2030-11-2811.35

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

Sustained high global energy prices (Brent crude averaging $95+) driven by geopolitical instability and disciplined OPEC+ supply management significantly boosts upstream earnings. China's economy sees a robust recovery, fueling strong domestic demand for refined products and natural gas. PetroChina successfully executes on key natural gas projects and its low-carbon initiatives begin to show profitability, leading to a valuation re-rating. The attractive dividend policy, combined with share price appreciation, draws significant investor interest, pushing the stock towards historical highs.

Bear case

A global recession or a faster-than-expected transition to renewable energy causes a collapse in oil prices to below $60 per barrel. China's economic growth falters, leading to weak domestic demand for fuels and chemicals. Government intervention to cap domestic energy prices to control inflation severely compresses refining and marketing margins. High on nascent green energy projects yield low returns, straining and potentially forcing a reduction in the dividend payout, leading to a significant investor exodus and stock price decline.

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