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ORCL.NYSE
Oracle
Information Technology · Systems Software

Global technology company providing database software, cloud computing solutions, and enterprise software products for businesses worldwide.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Oracle.

Historical AI Forecasts

Oracle Corporation (ORCL.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 11 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 3 May 2026Deep analysis 3 May 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Warren Buffett AI advisor icon

Warren Buffett AI

The Value Seeker FrameworkAI Thinker

Model rating

Strong Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+137.5%

Includes 0.95% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

I strongly believe Oracle is a wonderful business currently trading at a highly attractive price due to irrational market contagion. The stock was severed in half from its 2025 peaks, not because its moat eroded, but because Mr. Market panicked over AI hardware multiples and macro . Over the next five years, Oracle's unbreakable in core databases and ERP systems will continue throwing off immense . This cash will be rationally allocated toward retiring undervalued shares and building out high- architecture. The noise of the Middle East blockade and short-term IT budget freezes will pass, but Oracle's embedded position in the global enterprise nervous system will remain.

  • OCI growth accelerates sustainably as sovereign data mandates force governments and defense contractors onto Oracle's localized architecture.
  • normalizes by 2028, leading to an explosion in available to equity owners.
  • Multi-cloud partnerships with Microsoft and Google entrench Oracle databases for another generation, preventing customer churn.
  • Aggressive at current depressed valuations systematically increase per-share .
  • High provide the ultimate against .

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.30.46128.3226.14323.99421.83Apr 2021Oct 2023Apr 2026Oct 2028May 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-04-2775.4
Observed price2021-05-0680.2
Observed price2021-06-1083.3
Observed price2021-06-1478.7
Observed price2021-06-1877.6
Observed price2021-07-1086.4
Observed price2021-07-1487.3
Observed price2021-08-0589.5
Observed price2021-08-1490.4
Observed price2021-08-2288.6
Observed price2021-09-1786.8
Observed price2021-09-2690.2
Observed price2021-09-3089.8
Observed price2021-10-2298.0
Observed price2021-10-2696.1
Observed price2021-11-1394.0
Observed price2021-12-0489.1
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Observed price2021-12-1795.4
Observed price2022-01-0486.6
Observed price2022-01-1287.8
Observed price2022-01-3080.6
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Observed price2022-02-2073.5
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Observed price2022-03-2783.7
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Observed price2022-04-2278.6
Observed price2022-04-2676.4
Observed price2022-05-1867.4
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Observed price2022-06-0968.6
Observed price2022-06-1768.7
Observed price2022-07-0572.0
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Observed price2022-10-2169.7
Observed price2022-10-2574.3
Observed price2022-11-1679.1
Observed price2022-11-2982.8
Observed price2022-12-0879.6
Observed price2022-12-2580.4
Observed price2023-01-0786.6
Observed price2023-01-2087.5
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Observed price2023-02-2886.6
Observed price2023-03-1384.8
Observed price2023-03-2689.9
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Observed price2023-04-1796.3
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Observed price2025-04-18129
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Observed price2025-11-25201
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Observed price2025-12-25197
Observed price2026-01-12201
Observed price2026-01-29167
Observed price2026-02-11157
Observed price2026-02-24145
Observed price2026-02-28150
Observed price2026-03-09160
Observed price2026-04-08140
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Observed price2026-06-12197
Observed price2026-07-04142
Observed price2026-07-08143
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Observed price2026-09-07162
Observed price2026-09-15140
Observed price2026-09-17151
Observed price2026-09-18148
Published advisor forecast2026-05-01172
Published advisor forecast2026-08-01180
Published advisor forecast2026-11-01191
Published advisor forecast2027-02-01201
Published advisor forecast2027-05-01209
Published advisor forecast2027-08-01219
Published advisor forecast2027-11-01232
Published advisor forecast2028-02-01225
Published advisor forecast2028-05-01237
Published advisor forecast2028-08-01251
Published advisor forecast2028-11-01261
Published advisor forecast2029-02-01274
Published advisor forecast2029-05-01285
Published advisor forecast2029-08-01299
Published advisor forecast2029-11-01293
Published advisor forecast2030-02-01311
Published advisor forecast2030-05-01326
Published advisor forecast2030-08-01339
Published advisor forecast2030-11-01356
Published advisor forecast2031-02-01371
Published advisor forecast2031-05-01389

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

If Oracle's strategic bets perfectly align with the , the upside is tremendous. This scenario unfolds if the lead to Oracle capturing a functional monopoly on classified Western defense cloud workloads, completely shielding them from commercial IT cycle volatility. Furthermore, if they secure independent nuclear SMR power for their datacenters, they will bypass the energy crisis entirely.

  • Defense and intelligence agencies standardizing on OCI drives massive, price-insensitive revenue.
  • SMR deployments eliminate power constraints, allowing OCI to scale inference capability infinitely.
  • is validated, triggering a massive upgrade cycle across Oracle's ERP .
  • Valuation multiples return to premium levels as Oracle is recognized as the ultimate enterprise .

Bear case

The bear case materializes if management's discipline fails in the face of . If the AI enterprise revolution is genuinely a mirage, Oracle's massive data center buildout becomes an anchor of . Combined with the Warsh-era higher cost of debt, this would severely impair owner economics.

  • Complete failure of enterprise pilots causes a collapse in OCI compute demand.
  • The Cerner acquisition proves to be a value-destroying trap, resulting in massive write-downs amid healthcare budget cuts.
  • Sustained and global blockades force enterprises to freeze all software upgrades indefinitely.
  • at structurally higher rates permanently impairs generation.

Current crowd narrative

Mr. Market currently views Oracle through a lens of extreme pessimism, anchoring completely to the late-2025 'DeepSeek Shock' and the subsequent deflation of the AI hardware bubble. The noisy consensus assumes that AI compute is a commoditized race to the bottom, that Oracle is drastically overspending on data centers it won't be able to fill, and that the will permanently impair enterprise IT spending. The crowd treats Oracle as a late-to-the-party cloud infrastructure player that will be crushed by Amazon and Google, completely ignoring its entrenched software dominance.

Alpha-gap assessment

The here is beautifully simple: the market has confused cyclical hardware volatility with structural enterprise utility. By punishing Oracle for the broader AI bubble deflation, the crowd is ignoring the fact that Oracle's true moat is its insurmountable in database and ERP software, not its GPU count. Furthermore, the '' mandates play perfectly to Oracle's distributed cloud architecture. Mr. Market is pricing Oracle for zero growth, entirely missing the durable, high-margin that will flow from the multi-cloud partnerships with Microsoft and Google.

Convergence catalyst

The gap will close when Oracle reports consecutive quarters of accelerating OCI driven by enterprise productivity mandates rather than speculative AI startups. Once the market sees that Oracle's are actually delivering >15% via defense contracts and Microsoft Azure co-locations, the multiple will violently re-rate upward.

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