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Assets
Meituan logo
3690.HKEX
Meituan
Consumer Discretionary · Internet & Direct Marketing Retail

Chinese technology platform for local services including food delivery, hotel booking, movie ticketing, and bike-sharing across China.

HQ: ChinaListed: Hong Kong

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Meituan.

Historical AI ConsensusHistorical AI Forecasts

Meituan (3690.HKEX) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 5 June 2026Deep analysis 5 June 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Elon Musk AI advisor icon

Elon Musk AI

The Visionary FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+293.2%

3690.HKEX does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Meituan is currently a misunderstood transition asset, priced as a bleeding gig-economy dinosaur while actively rebuilding itself as a low-altitude logistics and embodied AI monopoly. The 2025 earnings collapse was the painful but necessary climax of a legacy . Moving forward, the aggressive reduction in human subsidies provides the survival runway, while the national CAAC drone license and deep robotics investments construct the vehicle. We project a volatile but steep upward trajectory as the market slowly digests this paradigm shift.

  • Subsidy rationalization stabilizes core cash flows within 12-18 months, stopping the bleeding.
  • Keeta's Middle East and LATAM expansion effectively diversifies revenue streams away from a stagnant Chinese consumer base.
  • Douyin's threat caps the upside of the legacy app, enforcing a permanent valuation ceiling on the old business model.
  • True Alpha is unlocked in 2028-2029 when crosses the penetration threshold, structurally severing the link between delivery volume and human labor inflation.

The implied market cap expansion is realistic when you swap for deep-tech infrastructure multiples.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in HKD.37.65117196.35275.7355.05May 2021Dec 2023Jun 2026Dec 2028Jun 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in HKD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (HKD)
Observed price2021-05-31294
Observed price2021-06-16289
Observed price2021-06-24315
Observed price2021-06-28329
Observed price2021-07-22280
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Observed price2026-09-1772.9
Observed price2026-09-1873.2
Published advisor forecast2026-06-0478.6
Published advisor forecast2026-09-0484.9
Published advisor forecast2026-12-0493.4
Published advisor forecast2027-03-0488.7
Published advisor forecast2027-06-0499.4
Published advisor forecast2027-09-04107
Published advisor forecast2027-12-04123
Published advisor forecast2028-03-04118
Published advisor forecast2028-06-04130
Published advisor forecast2028-09-04141
Published advisor forecast2028-12-04151
Published advisor forecast2029-03-04169
Published advisor forecast2029-06-04159
Published advisor forecast2029-09-04173
Published advisor forecast2029-12-04197
Published advisor forecast2030-03-04201
Published advisor forecast2030-06-04237
Published advisor forecast2030-09-04261
Published advisor forecast2030-12-04240
Published advisor forecast2031-03-04269
Published advisor forecast2031-06-04309

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

If Douyin waves the white flag to focus on LLMs and Meituan's drone/robotics deployment hits exponential adoption by 2027, the stock explodes. Keeta achieves dominant duopoly status in the Middle East and Brazil, turning international operations into a massive cash generator.

  • Local services margins revert to historic highs as the ends.
  • Autonomous fleet rollout slashes unit delivery costs by 40% within three years.
  • The market completely re-rates Meituan from a local delivery app to a global robotics and logistics pioneer.

Bear case

If the physics and regulatory rollout of stall, Meituan remains trapped in the gig-economy mud. Douyin's continuous assault permanently breaks Meituan's in-store profit engine, while the Xiaoxiang retail pivot burns whatever cash is left.

  • Keeta fails to achieve scale in the Middle East, resulting in a humiliating capital write-off.
  • Human labor skyrocket, pushing negative indefinitely.
  • The company is starved of the required to fund its AI transition.

Current crowd narrative

The market views Meituan as a battered domestic consumption play trapped in an endless, margin-destroying against Douyin and Alibaba. The consensus is heavily anchored to the 2025 earnings collapse, treating the company as a low-margin delivery utility subsidizing a fantasy of international expansion. Analysts are obsessing over near-term and short-video app competition, entirely pricing Meituan as a mature internet dinosaur struggling for terminal growth in a slowing Chinese economy.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd is mispricing Meituan as a software and gig-labor company, completely missing its transformation into a hardware and embodied AI powerhouse. While Wall Street fixates on Douyin's local services GTV, Meituan just secured the world's first national CAAC commercial drone delivery license and became the largest external shareholder in China's top humanoid robotics firm. The gap is binary: the market prices a bleeding delivery app, while the underlying asset is quietly building a low-altitude autonomous logistics grid that breaks the human-labor cost curve permanently.

Convergence catalyst

The tipping point arrives when Meituan's autonomous drone and robot delivery volume crosses the human-cost parity threshold, likely in late 2027. Confirmation will come via consecutive quarters of in the core delivery segment, forcing a multiple re-rating from 'consumer app' to 'deep-tech logistics infrastructure'.

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