Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Warren Buffett AI
Price-adjusted rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+78.4%
Includes 1.80% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
Lockheed Martin operates as an entrenched sovereign tollbooth, converting enduring geopolitical conflict into dependable owner cash flows. The central tension between rising global defense requirements and historical program execution friction is resolving decisively in favor of production acceleration. With a record $230 billion backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry and book-to-bill of 3.2x, Missiles and Fire Control is expanding output via long-term contracts for PAC-3 MSE and THAAD interceptors. As fixed-price development overhangs diminish and F-35 sustainment compounds, operating leverageoperating leverageThe sensitivity of operating profit to changes in revenue caused by the mix of fixed and variable costs.View full glossary entry will drive double-digit earnings growth, providing long-term equity holders with robust capital compounding and high-certainty cash returns.
- Raised 2026 sales guidance of $80.75 billion midpoint and $7.1 billion free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. anchor underlying operating resilience.
- Trailing price-to-earnings of 19.6x and a 7.1% free cash flow yieldfree cash flow yieldFree cash flow divided by market value, showing cash generation relative to the asset price.View full glossary entry offer a substantial margin of safetymargin of safetyThe difference between an estimated intrinsic value and the purchase price, intended to allow for uncertainty or analytical error.View full glossary entry.
- Converting the $230 billion backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. at normal 11% operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. supports an intrinsic valuation exceeding $650 per share.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-17 | 341 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-10 | 357 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-16 | 368 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-02 | 329 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-20 | 343 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-01 | 330 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-19 | 345 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-05 | 359 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-11 | 365 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-28 | 393 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-15 | 382 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-04 | 457 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-15 | 422 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-02 | 450 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-13 | 467 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-01 | 433 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-06 | 447 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-12 | 435 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-04 | 443 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-16 | 405 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-03 | 424 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-21 | 393 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-01 | 424 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-19 | 440 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-30 | 421 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 413 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-28 | 392 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-21 | 457 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-08 | 494 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-13 | 463 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-01 | 484 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-12 | 480 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-30 | 486 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-16 | 448 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-22 | 447 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-08 | 477 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-09 | 478 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-15 | 471 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-21 | 467 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 488 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-18 | 486 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-12 | 452 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-23 | 445 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-09 | 457 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-15 | 455 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-08 | 461 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-14 | 462 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 446 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-24 | 453 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 435 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-16 | 426 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-03 | 405 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-09 | 420 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-01 | 451 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-13 | 444 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-30 | 449 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-17 | 444 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-29 | 452 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-21 | 459 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-27 | 430 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-02 | 430 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 424 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-01 | 427 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-25 | 446 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-30 | 452 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-23 | 460 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-04 | 464 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-10 | 467 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-27 | 459 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-02 | 468 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-07 | 462 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-18 | 474 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-24 | 518 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-16 | 560 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-22 | 558 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-14 | 573 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-20 | 572 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-13 | 611 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-19 | 602 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-30 | 546 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-17 | 537 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-10 | 512 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-16 | 492 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-08 | 472 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-19 | 493 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-06 | 452 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-17 | 432 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-07 | 463 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-12 | 468 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-24 | 441 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-10 | 458 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-28 | 478 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-15 | 465 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-01 | 479 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-19 | 473 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-24 | 461 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-06 | 469 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-23 | 419 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-04 | 424 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-27 | 456 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-02 | 453 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-25 | 489 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-07 | 512 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-24 | 487 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-30 | 487 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-10 | 457 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-03 | 449 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-21 | 478 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-26 | 485 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-19 | 574 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-24 | 581 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-17 | 647 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-06 | 671 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-17 | 642 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-29 | 600 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-04 | 628 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 559 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-08 | 509 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-01 | 516 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-12 | 537 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-24 | 506 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-05 | 538 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-17 | 509 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-09 | 601 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-15 | 602 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-07 | 534 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 528 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-17 | 538 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 535 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 533 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 549 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 560 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 583 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 594 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 612 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 618 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 643 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 656 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 676 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 689 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 710 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 717 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 738 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 753 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 776 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 791 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 815 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 831 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 856 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 873 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The upside scenario activates if global geopolitical escalation accelerates allied defense budgets beyond NATO's two-percent floor toward three percent of GDP. This surge triggers immediate procurement tranches for F-35 fighters and space-based interceptors, while munitions co-production agreements in Europe and Asia expand manufacturing capacity ahead of schedule. Operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry surpass 12.5% as reach-forward charges vanish completely, pushing annualized free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry above $9.5 billion and driving the share price toward $750.
Bear case
The downside scenario materializes if severe critical mineral export bans from China disrupt defense supply chains alongside renewed fixed-price development contract write-downs in Aeronautics and Space. Concurrent federal deficit consolidation caps U.S. procurement budgets, causing customer delivery deferrals and inventory accumulation. Segment operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. compress toward 8.5% as cost inflation outpaces contractual indexation, dragging annual free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. down to $5.0 billion and compressing the valuation multiplevaluation multipleA ratio comparing market or enterprise value with a financial measure such as earnings, revenue, book value, or cash flow.View full glossary entry toward 15x earnings.
Current crowd narrative
Consensus views Lockheed Martin as an ex-growth industrial proxy constrained by statutory defense spending caps and recurring development-program write-downs. Sell-side models anchor heavily on legacy fixed-price losses and mature F-35 procurement volumes, treating the enterprise as a low-single-digit bond surrogate. Consequently, the market prices in stagnant operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. and dismisses munitions demand as a temporary cyclical spike.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd materially underestimates the earnings power embedded in Lockheed Martin's record $230 billion backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. and book-to-bill of 3.2x, implying clear equity underpricing. Market participants treat munitions replenishment as transitory, missing multi-year sovereign framework agreements that triple PAC-3 MSE production and quadruple THAAD interceptor throughput. Crucially, as legacy fixed-price development contracts mature and transition into full-rate serial production, reach-forward charges abate. This structural shift allows consolidated operating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes. to expand toward 11.5%, delivering sustained double-digit free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. growth that consensus forecasts ignore.
Convergence catalyst
The decisive catalyst will be consecutive quarterly earnings beats during fiscal 2027, driven by accelerated deliveries of high-margin Missiles and Fire Control contracts. As operating cash flowoperating cash flowCash generated or consumed by a company's core business operations.View full glossary entry converts the $230 billion backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. at expanding margins, sell-side analysts will be forced to revise medium-term earnings forecasts upward.
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