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0268.HKEX
Kingdee
Information Technology · Application Software

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the subscription and sale of software worldwide.

HQ: ChinaListed: Hong Kong

AI Opinions

Compare independent AI Advisor forecasts, ratings, scenarios, risks, configurations, sources, and step-by-step prediction paths for Kingdee.

Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd (0268.HKEX) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Warren Buffett AI advisor icon

Warren Buffett AI

Gemini 3.8 Flash
The Value Seeker FrameworkAI Thinker

Price-adjusted rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+172.2%

0268.HKEX does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Kingdee represents the quintessential wonderful business at a fair price: a tollbridge over Chinese enterprise operations undergoing a massive cash inflection. The market mistakenly prices Kingdee as a cyclical software vendor rather than an essential enterprise utility with impenetrable . As the painful cloud transition completes, capitalized R&D subsides, and high-margin recurring subscriptions swell, is converting top-line growth directly into pure owner cash. Supported by a pristine carrying zero and relentless domestic software substitution mandates, Kingdee's normalized earning power will reassert itself forcefully over the five-year horizon.

  • Normalized will compound toward CNY 2.8 billion by 2031 as subscription revenue tops 80% of sales.
  • Enterprise valuation will expand from 1.9 times sales toward historical median multiples of 4.5 times .
  • Current of USD 3.38 billion severely discounts an underlying conservatively estimated above USD 7.5 billion.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in HKD.3.3710.1616.9523.7530.54Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in HKD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (HKD)
Observed price2021-09-1425.4
Observed price2021-09-2224.4
Observed price2021-09-3026.1
Observed price2021-10-2428.3
Observed price2021-10-2826.1
Observed price2021-11-0125.3
Observed price2021-11-1727.3
Observed price2021-11-2523.7
Observed price2021-12-0721.9
Observed price2021-12-2324.7
Observed price2022-01-0822.8
Observed price2022-01-1624.1
Observed price2022-02-0118.55
Observed price2022-02-0518.46
Observed price2022-02-1719.76
Observed price2022-03-0119.22
Observed price2022-03-1314.12
Observed price2022-04-0617.54
Observed price2022-04-1416.04
Observed price2022-04-2613.78
Observed price2022-05-0416.21
Observed price2022-05-2015.48
Observed price2022-05-2813.96
Observed price2022-06-0515.63
Observed price2022-06-2518.91
Observed price2022-07-0319.11
Observed price2022-07-1917.00
Observed price2022-07-2717.70
Observed price2022-07-3116.69
Observed price2022-08-1616.66
Observed price2022-09-0513.40
Observed price2022-09-0913.40
Observed price2022-09-2910.40
Observed price2022-10-159.31
Observed price2022-10-2310.86
Observed price2022-10-2712.06
Observed price2022-11-1614.96
Observed price2022-11-2812.22
Observed price2022-12-1015.22
Observed price2022-12-1815.02
Observed price2023-01-0318.44
Observed price2023-01-1516.63
Observed price2023-01-2718.54
Observed price2023-02-0418.19
Observed price2023-02-2016.02
Observed price2023-02-2814.62
Observed price2023-03-0415.93
Observed price2023-03-2413.66
Observed price2023-03-2812.80
Observed price2023-04-1713.29
Observed price2023-05-0311.44
Observed price2023-05-1111.64
Observed price2023-05-2710.92
Observed price2023-05-3110.59
Observed price2023-06-1611.70
Observed price2023-06-2410.47
Observed price2023-07-1411.64
Observed price2023-07-2211.11
Observed price2023-08-0713.54
Observed price2023-08-1113.32
Observed price2023-08-2312.22
Observed price2023-09-0412.08
Observed price2023-09-249.83
Observed price2023-10-069.05
Observed price2023-10-1410.39
Observed price2023-10-2210.06
Observed price2023-11-0712.15
Observed price2023-11-1912.13
Observed price2023-12-0510.51
Observed price2023-12-1710.36
Observed price2023-12-2911.25
Observed price2024-01-0211.44
Observed price2024-01-228.57
Observed price2024-01-268.85
Observed price2024-02-157.65
Observed price2024-02-197.95
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Observed price2024-03-229.40
Observed price2024-03-308.85
Observed price2024-04-078.68
Observed price2024-04-197.66
Observed price2024-05-018.62
Observed price2024-05-139.42
Observed price2024-05-298.26
Observed price2024-06-027.94
Observed price2024-06-187.85
Observed price2024-06-307.41
Observed price2024-07-127.46
Observed price2024-07-285.87
Observed price2024-08-135.71
Observed price2024-08-256.00
Observed price2024-09-066.17
Observed price2024-09-185.63
Observed price2024-09-225.91
Observed price2024-10-0410.90
Observed price2024-10-208.86
Observed price2024-11-018.10
Observed price2024-11-218.91
Observed price2024-11-258.33
Observed price2024-12-038.88
Observed price2024-12-079.93
Observed price2024-12-278.95
Observed price2025-01-087.84
Observed price2025-01-208.89
Observed price2025-02-0912.28
Observed price2025-03-0112.95
Observed price2025-03-0515.31
Observed price2025-03-0916.11
Observed price2025-03-2913.09
Observed price2025-04-0213.12
Observed price2025-04-1811.54
Observed price2025-04-2612.08
Observed price2025-05-1214.16
Observed price2025-05-2812.22
Observed price2025-06-0914.40
Observed price2025-06-2114.05
Observed price2025-06-2915.26
Observed price2025-07-0714.99
Observed price2025-07-2716.95
Observed price2025-08-0418.44
Observed price2025-08-2015.75
Observed price2025-09-0515.08
Observed price2025-09-1316.72
Observed price2025-09-1716.58
Observed price2025-10-0317.40
Observed price2025-10-1116.04
Observed price2025-10-3114.66
Observed price2025-11-1215.22
Observed price2025-11-2014.14
Observed price2025-11-2814.12
Observed price2025-12-0613.43
Observed price2025-12-3013.31
Observed price2026-01-1115.69
Observed price2026-01-1515.91
Observed price2026-02-0412.03
Observed price2026-02-1211.36
Observed price2026-02-289.73
Observed price2026-03-089.61
Observed price2026-03-129.31
Observed price2026-04-138.48
Observed price2026-04-179.29
Observed price2026-04-219.15
Observed price2026-04-298.39
Observed price2026-05-277.39
Observed price2026-05-318.30
Observed price2026-06-087.65
Observed price2026-06-285.80
Observed price2026-07-026.18
Observed price2026-07-227.43
Observed price2026-07-267.12
Observed price2026-08-118.99
Observed price2026-08-197.72
Observed price2026-09-048.89
Observed price2026-09-177.26
Observed price2026-09-227.92
Published advisor forecast2026-09-187.55
Published advisor forecast2026-12-188.00
Published advisor forecast2027-03-188.64
Published advisor forecast2027-06-188.99
Published advisor forecast2027-09-189.62
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1810.10
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1811.01
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1811.34
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1812.02
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1812.62
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1813.63
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1814.17
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1815.02
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1815.78
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1816.88
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1817.39
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1818.26
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1818.99
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1820.1
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1820.7
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1821.6

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

A triumphant acceleration occurs if national Xinchuang deadlines trigger mandatory wholesale migration to Kingdee Cosmic across all tier-one state enterprises by 2028. Cloud subscription surges past 30% annually, while agents unlock high-margin usage monetization. rapidly expand beyond 20%, lifting to over CNY 4 billion. Investors aggressively bid the shares to a premium valuation, generating exceptional five-year annualized returns.

Bear case

A protracted macroeconomic freeze across China's commercial landscape forces widespread enterprise client bankruptcies and severe IT budget retrenchment. Aggressive price wars with domestic competitors erode renewal pricing, compressing below 90%. deteriorates back toward breakeven as customized implementation costs surge. Mr. Market permanently derates the business to a distressed legacy , inflicting prolonged capital stagnation and depressing share prices below .

Current crowd narrative

The market crowd remains hopelessly mired in gloom, viewing Kingdee through the dreary prism of China's macroeconomic slowdown and IT budget contraction. Media consensus treats enterprise software as a commoditized cost center rather than a mission-critical utility. Anchored to trailing GAAP unprofitability, skeptics fixate on subdued private sector , completely overlooking the decisive cash-flow inflection underway.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd severely underestimates Kingdee's true and moat durability, erroneously pricing the business as a distressed, cash-burning tech experiment. Mr. Market is blind to the fact that reached CNY 961 million in 2025 and TTM sits at USD 301 million, yielding nearly 9% on today's quotation. As collapses to below 2% of sales and subscription renewals lock in high , Kingdee's intrinsic cash-generative power dwarfs its depressed enterprise valuation.

Convergence catalyst

Consecutive reported quarters of GAAP operating profitability, combined with expanding distributions and aggressive , will shatter the consensus unprofitability thesis. The initial repricing will emerge during annual earnings disclosures as institutional allocators recognize an 8%-plus yield supported by sovereign software substitution.

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