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ELF.NYSE
e.l.f. Beauty
Consumer Staples · Personal Care Products
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, paw, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f.MoreShow less
HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for e.l.f. Beauty.

ELF Beauty Inc (ELF.NYSE) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 11 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 3 May 2026Deep analysis 3 May 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Ray Dalio AI advisor icon

Ray Dalio AI

The Strategist FrameworkAI Thinker

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+133.9%

ELF.NYSE does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Our balanced Base Case forecast anticipates a grinding recovery followed by sustained structural growth. For the next 12 to 18 months, the company will battle the of the Hormuz-driven polyethylene shock and elevated maritime freight costs. Margins will remain compressed, and the stock will likely experience erratic swings as the market digests mixed earnings reports. However, beneath this cyclical noise, the company is quietly executing a massive capture. As middle-class consumers are squeezed by inflation, they will structurally trade down from prestige cosmetic brands to this company's value offerings. By 2028, as supply chains reconfigure and base-out, these expanded volumes will meet normalizing . The resulting explosion in will force the market to re-rate the equity from a 'busted growth story' back to an 'All-Weather '.

  • Near-term from packaging and shipping costs is fully priced in at $60.
  • The '' drives massive consumer trade-down, accelerating volume growth.
  • International expansion provides a non-cyclical growth engine outside of a stagnant US economy.
  • adaptations gradually restore to historical averages by 2028.
  • The net effect of these drivers overwhelming temporary frictions yields a target price near $141.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.2.1659.14116.11173.09230.07Apr 2021Oct 2023Apr 2026Oct 2028May 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
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Observed price2021-04-2930.3
Observed price2021-05-1528.6
Observed price2021-05-2728.5
Observed price2021-06-0427.4
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Observed price2026-06-2263.6
Observed price2026-07-1275.6
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Observed price2026-09-09100
Observed price2026-09-1095.8
Observed price2026-09-1496.8
Published advisor forecast2026-05-0160.5
Published advisor forecast2026-08-0157.5
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Published advisor forecast2027-02-0164.5
Published advisor forecast2027-05-0168.4
Published advisor forecast2027-08-0173.2
Published advisor forecast2027-11-0176.9
Published advisor forecast2028-02-0184.6
Published advisor forecast2028-05-0191.3
Published advisor forecast2028-08-0195.9
Published advisor forecast2028-11-0199.7
Published advisor forecast2029-02-01106
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Published advisor forecast2030-02-01118
Published advisor forecast2030-05-01118
Published advisor forecast2030-08-01122
Published advisor forecast2030-11-01128
Published advisor forecast2031-02-01136
Published advisor forecast2031-05-01141

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

If the Base Case executes alongside a rapid unwinding of geopolitical trade frictions and the successful launch of a viral, high-margin skincare line, the stock will achieve explosive upside. In this scenario, the transition from color cosmetics to daily skincare structurally alters the company's . The brand transitions from an affordable alternative to a dominant global staple.

  • resolve quickly, slashing freight and .
  • A breakthrough skincare line drives to unprecedented record highs.
  • International adoption accelerates faster than expected, particularly in Europe and Asia.
  • The market assigns a premium 'consumer staple' multiple to the earnings stream.

Bear case

If the Base Case is derailed by comprehensive, permanent Asian tariffs or an unmanageable failure, the company will become trapped in a low-margin purgatory. In this scenario, the company cannot pass extreme to its price-sensitive consumer base. Volume growth stalls, and the brand is outspent by legacy giants protecting their territory in a shrinking economy.

  • Sweeping tariffs structurally impair the .
  • Inflation exhausts the consumer, breaking even the 'affordable luxury' demand.
  • Squeezed margins prevent necessary marketing spend, stalling the digital acquisition engine.
  • The stock languishes as a , failing to reclaim its historical multiples.

Current crowd narrative

The crowd currently believes the growth story is dead. Following the staggering drop from its peak above $200 down to $60, financial media and retail investors are anchored to the narrative that rising freight costs, polyethylene packaging shortages, and a tapped-out low-income consumer have permanently broken the company's . The consensus trade is to sell rallies, assuming the era of easy money and viral growth is over and treating the company as a busted cyclical mirage.

Alpha-gap assessment

The market is fundamentally mispricing the distinction between a cyclical input shock and structural . The crowd sees crashing margins from polyethylene costs and shipping rates, assuming this is permanent. The is that while are a temporary cyclical headwind, the company's structural cost advantage is capturing permanent via the '' as consumers trade down from expensive prestige brands. At $60, the market is pricing trough margins as permanent, ignoring the cyclically-adjusted earnings power once supply chains adapt. This is a classic overshoot.

Convergence catalyst

The gap will close when the company reports an earnings quarter showing resilient unit volume growth alongside successful price hikes that fully pass through the polyethylene packaging costs. Once the market sees that margins have stabilized and consumers accepted the new pricing without abandoning the brand, the trough-valuation narrative will break. We expect this inflection point in mid-to-late 2027.

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