Dassault Systemes SE (DSY.PAR) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 11 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 11 April 2026Deep analysis 11 April 2026
J.P. Morgan AI
Model rating
Strong Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+173.0%
Includes 0.98% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The 'True Pricetrue priceAn estimate of long-term fair value after temporary noise and short-term sentiment are filtered out.View full glossary entry' path reveals an empire temporarily obscured by a cyclical storm, poised for a historic re-rating. I firmly assert that Dassault Systemes will regain its premium valuation as the SaaSsoftware as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges.View full glossary entry migration mathematically accelerates recurring revenuerecurring revenueRevenue expected to repeat under subscriptions, contracts, renewals, or recurring customer usage.View full glossary entry and the global defense supercycledefense supercycleA prolonged period of elevated defense spending, procurement, and industry investment.View full glossary entry entirely offsets European automotive weakness. The current trough valuation is a rare, irrational entry point into a structural monopolystructural monopolyA durable market structure where one provider keeps dominant power due to strong barriers to entry.View full glossary entry that controls the architectural rails of global industry. Over the next five years, the pain of the subscription transition fades as the 86% base compounds predictably. Margins expand as AI modules are successfully up-sold to captive clients who simply cannot afford the operational paralysis of switching CAD/PLM providers. The implied 60 billion EUR market capitalizationmarket capitalizationThe market value of an asset or company, commonly calculated for a company as share price multiplied by shares outstanding.View full glossary entry by 2031 is highly realistic for a high-margin infrastructure toll-taker.
- Subscription transition achieves crossover, locking in recurring revenueRevenue expected to repeat under subscriptions, contracts, renewals, or recurring customer usage. at higher lifetime value.
- Aerospace and defense supercycleA prolonged period of elevated defense spending, procurement, and industry investment. acts as a massive tailwind, driven by global remilitarization.
- The Medidata division stabilizes as the Moderna post-COVID drag is fully lapped.
- Pascal Daloz successfully asserts institutional permanenceinstitutional permanenceDurable integration of an asset, practice, or institution into established financial or operating systems.View full glossary entry, proving the empire survives its visionary founder.
- Pricing powerpricing powerThe ability of a company to raise prices without losing significant customer demand.View full glossary entry is aggressively exercised via new Industrial AI modules that captive clients must adopt.
- Aggressive at the 2026 trough artificially amplify EPS compoundingeps compoundingMethodical growth in earnings per share through margin improvement and systematic share count reduction.View full glossary entry.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-04-07 | 37.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-04-23 | 39.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-05-13 | 36.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-05-25 | 37.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-06-06 | 37.0 |
| Observed price | 2021-06-26 | 40.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-06-30 | 40.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-07-24 | 44.6 |
| Observed price | 2021-07-28 | 45.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-08-09 | 48.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-08-25 | 48.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-18 | 50.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-22 | 50.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-12 | 44.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-20 | 46.8 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-13 | 55.2 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-21 | 55.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-03 | 52.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-27 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-12 | 46.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-28 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-21 | 40.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-01 | 43.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-09 | 40.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-21 | 45.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-06 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-26 | 40.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-04 | 41.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-20 | 38.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 39.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-17 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-03 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-23 | 39.5 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-27 | 40.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-12 | 43.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-24 | 40.0 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-17 | 35.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-03 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-11 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-04 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-12 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-28 | 35.1 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-26 | 33.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-27 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-04 | 38.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-16 | 38.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-28 | 36.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-16 | 38.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-28 | 36.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 37.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-29 | 36.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-11 | 36.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-27 | 40.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-04 | 41.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-24 | 39.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-10 | 39.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-18 | 41.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-30 | 38.9 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-19 | 35.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 36.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-16 | 35.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-20 | 34.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-10 | 36.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-22 | 34.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-11 | 40.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-15 | 41.7 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-09 | 44.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-21 | 44.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-06 | 42.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-30 | 48.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-03 | 42.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-15 | 42.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 43.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-10 | 42.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-30 | 40.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-07 | 40.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-27 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 37.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-25 | 38.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-29 | 37.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-22 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-04 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-12 | 34.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 34.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-06 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-14 | 36.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-22 | 36.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 33.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-20 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-01 | 31.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-17 | 31.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-07 | 34.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-11 | 35.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-31 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-12 | 34.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-28 | 37.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-05 | 41.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-01 | 38.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 39.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-29 | 35.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-02 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-30 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-12 | 34.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-28 | 33.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-21 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-29 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-11 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-23 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-16 | 26.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-01 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-13 | 27.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-17 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-03 | 29.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-19 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-08 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-12 | 24.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-10 | 23.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-03 | 24.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-11 | 24.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-31 | 23.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 23.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-16 | 15.96 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-16 | 18.42 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-24 | 16.59 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-09 | 16.88 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 19.39 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-29 | 18.95 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-23 | 20.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-31 | 19.86 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-20 | 17.28 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-24 | 17.51 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-02 | 18.67 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-22 | 17.76 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-07 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-27 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-08 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-15 | 21.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-18 | 20.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-04-10 | 16.82 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-07-10 | 17.32 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-10-10 | 18.36 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-01-10 | 19.83 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-04-10 | 20.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-07-10 | 21.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-10-10 | 23.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-01-10 | 24.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-04-10 | 25.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-07-10 | 26.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-10-10 | 28.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-01-10 | 29.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-04-10 | 31.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-07-10 | 32.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-10-10 | 33.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-01-10 | 35.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-04-10 | 37.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-07-10 | 38.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-10-10 | 40.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-01-10 | 41.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-04-10 | 43.7 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
In this scenario, Dassault achieves absolute dominion over the Industrial AI landscape, successfully becoming the undisputed operating system for global manufacturing. Medidata is spun off at a premium, unlocking trapped value, while Dassault wins exclusive, unassailable mandates across the US and NATO defense apparatus.
- AI-driven 'Virtual Twins as a Service' triggers a massive, high-margin upgrade supercycle across all clients.
- Medidata is spun off to private equity, unlocking $6B+ in immediate shareholder value.
- Rival platforms fail to integrate multi-modal AI effectively, accelerating Dassault's market share conquests.
- Operating marginsoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry decisively breach 36% as cloud infrastructure costs scale efficiently.
Bear case
In this scenario, the visionary vacuum left by Bernard Charlès paralyzes the company, while the European industrial collapse permanently impairs the core client base. Competitors exploit the weakness to break the moat, proving the empire was more fragile than it appeared.
- European automotive insolvencies lead to massive contract cancellations and uncollectible receivables.
- Siemens and PTC successfully poach vulnerable aerospace clients by offering cheaper, superior AI integrations.
- Medidata continues to bleed to agile software as a serviceA software delivery model in which customers access hosted applications, commonly through recurring subscriptions or usage-based charges. competitors, forcing a massive goodwill impairmentgoodwill impairmentAccounting charge taken when the value of an acquired asset drops below its recorded book value.View full glossary entry.
- AI start-ups successfully commoditize 3D design generation, rendering CATIA's core engine obsolete.
Current crowd narrative
Following the horrific 21% single-day plunge in Q1 2026, the noisy market firmly believes Dassault's empire is crumbling. The crowd is obsessed with the slashed 3% growth guidance, viewing the company as a sluggish legacy vendor paralyzed by a botched SaaS transitionsaas transitionA shift from perpetual software licenses or project revenue toward subscription or usage-based recurring revenue.View full glossary entry, a dying European auto sector, and a failed Medidata acquisition. Financial media fixates on the abrupt exit of visionary founder Bernard Charlès, treating the new leadership as unproven. The anchoring bias equates the drop in upfront license sales to a total collapse in demand, utterly ignoring the reality of the recurring revenueRevenue expected to repeat under subscriptions, contracts, renewals, or recurring customer usage. base.
Alpha-gap assessment
I strongly believe the market is suffering from profound myopia, mistaking a cyclical European auto slump and the optical drag of a saas transitionA shift from perpetual software licenses or project revenue toward subscription or usage-based recurring revenue. for structural collapse. What the crowd systematically ignores is the impenetrable nature of Dassault's chokepoint: switching costsswitching costsFinancial, operational, technical, contractual, or learning costs incurred when changing products or providers.View full glossary entry. Major aerospace and industrial giants are absolute captives to the 3DEXPERIENCE platform; migrating decades of integrated design data is operational suicide. Trading at a 15-year trough multiple of roughly 13x earnings, the market has priced a monopoly infrastructure asset as if it were a dying enterprise. This is a severe, generational mispricing of dominion.
Convergence catalyst
The convergence will be forced by the completion of the subscription revenue crossover, where the 86% recurring revenueRevenue expected to repeat under subscriptions, contracts, renewals, or recurring customer usage. base mathematically overwhelms the legacy license decline. Combined with Pascal Daloz's upcoming Investor Day detailing specific defense-sector bookings and aggressive share buybacks, the market will be forced to acknowledge the moat remains unbroken.
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