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CA.PAR
Carrefour
Consumer Staples · Food Retail

French multinational retail corporation operating hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience stores across Europe, Latin America, and Asia.

HQ: FranceListed: France

Historical AI Forecasts

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for Carrefour.

Historical AI Forecasts

Carrefour SA (CA.PAR) AI FORECASTS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 28 November 2025Deep analysis 28 November 2025

PublisherRusslan Ramdowar
25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

AI Advisor 1 AI

Independent Investor FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+81.1%

Includes 5.33% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

Carrefour executes its strategic plan with mixed but overall positive results. While top-line growth in France remains sluggish due to stiff competition, the company successfully protects margins through cost efficiencies and the increasing penetration of private label products. The Brazilian operations continue to be a growth engine, albeit with periodic volatility. Shareholder returns remain a priority, with a steady and regular providing a floor for the stock price. The valuation remains attractive relative to peers, and the stock benefits from a gradual re-rating as it proves the resilience of its cash flow generation in a post-inflationary environment. The stock performs as a solid value rather than a high-growth asset.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.10.8213.6116.3919.1721.96Nov 2020May 2023Nov 2025May 2028Nov 2030Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in EUR.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (EUR)
Observed price2020-11-2313.52
Observed price2020-12-0913.90
Observed price2020-12-2113.33
Observed price2021-01-1417.10
Observed price2021-01-1815.46
Observed price2021-02-0314.12
Observed price2021-02-1915.05
Observed price2021-03-0314.26
Observed price2021-03-1514.55
Observed price2021-03-3115.45
Observed price2021-04-1214.96
Observed price2021-05-0616.55
Observed price2021-05-1817.34
Observed price2021-05-2616.37
Observed price2021-06-0717.38
Observed price2021-06-2716.73
Observed price2021-07-0517.04
Observed price2021-07-2115.71
Observed price2021-08-0216.07
Observed price2021-08-2217.18
Observed price2021-08-3016.91
Observed price2021-09-1914.75
Observed price2021-10-0515.83
Observed price2021-10-1315.23
Observed price2021-10-2515.35
Observed price2021-11-1016.35
Observed price2021-11-2216.07
Observed price2021-11-3014.62
Observed price2021-12-2015.62
Observed price2022-01-0918.11
Observed price2022-01-1717.86
Observed price2022-02-0616.89
Observed price2022-02-1417.20
Observed price2022-02-1818.18
Observed price2022-03-1818.23
Observed price2022-04-0719.77
Observed price2022-04-1920.6
Observed price2022-04-2319.79
Observed price2022-05-1721.0
Observed price2022-05-2919.07
Observed price2022-06-0619.62
Observed price2022-06-3016.89
Observed price2022-07-0817.17
Observed price2022-07-1616.62
Observed price2022-08-0116.22
Observed price2022-08-1717.30
Observed price2022-08-2916.91
Observed price2022-09-2215.58
Observed price2022-09-3014.21
Observed price2022-10-2015.18
Observed price2022-10-2415.39
Observed price2022-11-0916.52
Observed price2022-12-0716.66
Observed price2022-12-1515.81
Observed price2022-12-3115.70
Observed price2023-01-1216.68
Observed price2023-02-0117.51
Observed price2023-02-0916.44
Observed price2023-02-1316.39
Observed price2023-03-0118.42
Observed price2023-03-2517.59
Observed price2023-04-0218.57
Observed price2023-04-1818.85
Observed price2023-05-0417.53
Observed price2023-05-1218.30
Observed price2023-06-0117.14
Observed price2023-06-0517.34
Observed price2023-06-1716.24
Observed price2023-07-0716.89
Observed price2023-07-2718.54
Observed price2023-07-3118.19
Observed price2023-08-1618.07
Observed price2023-08-2818.23
Observed price2023-09-0516.76
Observed price2023-09-2916.29
Observed price2023-10-1515.79
Observed price2023-10-2315.71
Observed price2023-11-1217.20
Observed price2023-11-2817.39
Observed price2023-12-1416.30
Observed price2023-12-1816.23
Observed price2024-01-0316.78
Observed price2024-01-1516.46
Observed price2024-02-0815.09
Observed price2024-02-1214.96
Observed price2024-02-2416.29
Observed price2024-03-1915.71
Observed price2024-03-2316.02
Observed price2024-04-2415.92
Observed price2024-05-0215.54
Observed price2024-05-1416.80
Observed price2024-05-3014.98
Observed price2024-06-0315.39
Observed price2024-06-2713.38
Observed price2024-07-0113.39
Observed price2024-07-2114.67
Observed price2024-08-0613.49
Observed price2024-08-2214.13
Observed price2024-08-2614.29
Observed price2024-09-1915.70
Observed price2024-09-2716.02
Observed price2024-10-1315.00
Observed price2024-10-2115.04
Observed price2024-10-2914.50
Observed price2024-11-1814.76
Observed price2024-12-0414.03
Observed price2024-12-1613.80
Observed price2024-12-2013.47
Observed price2025-01-1713.91
Observed price2025-01-2113.34
Observed price2025-02-1413.86
Observed price2025-02-2212.61
Observed price2025-03-1412.90
Observed price2025-04-0313.28
Observed price2025-04-0713.07
Observed price2025-04-2713.73
Observed price2025-05-0513.56
Observed price2025-05-2114.77
Observed price2025-06-0213.18
Observed price2025-06-2611.75
Observed price2025-06-3011.97
Observed price2025-07-1212.34
Observed price2025-08-0112.35
Observed price2025-08-2113.16
Observed price2025-08-2512.93
Observed price2025-09-1412.10
Observed price2025-09-2211.95
Observed price2025-10-1613.32
Observed price2025-11-0512.86
Observed price2025-11-1313.53
Observed price2025-11-2112.98
Observed price2025-12-1114.12
Observed price2025-12-1914.37
Observed price2025-12-2314.12
Observed price2026-01-2013.82
Observed price2026-02-0514.85
Observed price2026-02-0914.87
Observed price2026-02-2516.06
Observed price2026-03-0915.20
Observed price2026-04-0215.97
Observed price2026-04-0616.03
Observed price2026-04-3016.69
Observed price2026-05-2017.34
Observed price2026-05-2816.07
Observed price2026-06-1316.52
Observed price2026-06-2115.88
Observed price2026-07-0316.12
Observed price2026-07-1916.76
Observed price2026-07-2716.09
Observed price2026-08-1615.71
Observed price2026-08-2815.63
Observed price2026-09-0816.66
Observed price2026-09-1116.27
Observed price2026-09-1416.61
Published advisor forecast2025-11-2713.22
Published advisor forecast2026-05-2814.15
Published advisor forecast2026-11-2814.84
Published advisor forecast2027-05-2815.39
Published advisor forecast2027-11-2815.88
Published advisor forecast2028-05-2816.32
Published advisor forecast2028-11-2816.78
Published advisor forecast2029-05-2817.23
Published advisor forecast2029-11-2817.63
Published advisor forecast2030-05-2818.07
Published advisor forecast2030-11-2818.47

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

Carrefour's 'Carrefour 2026' plan exceeds expectations, driven by a rapid expansion of high-margin operations (Carrefour Links) contributing significantly to operating income. The integration of Grupo BIG in Brazil delivers synergies faster than anticipated, solidifying Atacadão's dominance in the high-growth LATAM market. In Europe, a stabilization of food inflation allows Carrefour to regain volume growth while maintaining margins through its premium private label strategy (reaching 40% of sales). Successful cost-cutting measures of €4bn are fully realized, and the market rewards the stock with a closer to 12-13x P/E, driven by consistent and dividend growth. The stock re-rates as a defensive growth play.

Bear case

Intense competitive pressure from discounters like Aldi and Lidl, combined with the aggressive pricing strategy of market leader E.Leclerc in France, forces Carrefour into a destructive , eroding below 3%. The expected recovery in consumer spending fails to materialize in Europe due to persistent . In Brazil, macroeconomic instability and unfavorable (BRL depreciation against EUR) negate growth in local currency terms. The fails to offset the decline in hypermarket traffic, and the 'Carrefour 2026' targets are missed. The dividend becomes threatened as generation weakens, leading to a valuation de-rating toward 7-8x P/E.

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