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Zillow Group, Inc. (Z.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 12 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 5 June 2026Deep analysis 5 June 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

12 AI Advisor Reports

Select an advisor report.

Diversity of Models

Diversity of Frameworks

Elon Musk AI

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Visionary FrameworkAI Thinker

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+202.1%

Z.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

I strongly believe Zillow is a Paradigm Shifter currently masked by a hostile macro regime. The first-principles physics of real estate demand that the rent-seeking 6% commission model be obliterated by information technology, and Zillow is the only entity with the proprietary data density and execution velocity to build the autonomous transaction layer. While the 2026-2027 window will remain exceptionally choppy due to the Hormuz energy shock, Treasury volatility, and suppressed housing turnover, Zillow has achieved escape velocity. They survived the crucible of their iBuying mistake, pivoting to an asset-light, 75%+ gross margin model that is currently printing $430M+ in free cash flow and eating its own float at a staggering 12% yield.

The NAR settlement permanently alters industry thermodynamics, pushing margins from analog agents to digital platforms.
Macro rate freezes are a temporary physical constraint; pent-up transaction demand is mathematically compounding.
Hyper-aggressive buybacks provide a synthetic floor beneath the stock while macro storms rage.
Zillow's proprietary Zestimate and floor-plan data act as an impenetrable moat against generic foundational LLMs.
The 5-year outlook implies total destruction of legacy brokers, resulting in massive TAM expansion for Zillow.

Historical prices and published forecast

Observed price
Published advisor forecast

Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.

View chart values

Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
Series	Date	Value (USD)
Observed price	2021-06-01	114
Observed price	2021-06-13	110
Observed price	2021-06-25	119
Observed price	2021-06-29	124
Observed price	2021-07-15	105
Observed price	2021-07-27	110
Observed price	2021-08-20	92.8
Observed price	2021-08-24	98.9
Observed price	2021-09-09	93.2
Observed price	2021-09-21	95.3
Observed price	2021-09-29	85.7
Observed price	2021-10-31	95.4
Observed price	2021-11-12	64.0
Observed price	2021-11-16	62.8
Observed price	2021-11-28	54.7
Observed price	2022-01-03	63.4
Observed price	2022-01-07	56.7
Observed price	2022-01-11	58.4
Observed price	2022-01-27	47.6
Observed price	2022-02-08	49.0
Observed price	2022-02-16	63.9
Observed price	2022-03-08	47.6
Observed price	2022-03-20	55.3
Observed price	2022-04-05	52.1
Observed price	2022-04-25	40.7
Observed price	2022-05-03	42.5
Observed price	2022-05-11	37.2
Observed price	2022-06-08	41.0
Observed price	2022-06-16	28.8
Observed price	2022-06-28	33.4
Observed price	2022-07-22	36.2
Observed price	2022-08-15	39.1
Observed price	2022-08-19	33.6
Observed price	2022-08-23	33.4
Observed price	2022-09-08	36.5
Observed price	2022-09-20	32.1
Observed price	2022-10-14	28.2
Observed price	2022-10-18	28.8
Observed price	2022-11-11	36.1
Observed price	2022-11-23	34.7
Observed price	2022-12-01	38.3
Observed price	2022-12-13	38.0
Observed price	2022-12-29	31.8
Observed price	2023-01-10	40.9
Observed price	2023-02-03	46.6
Observed price	2023-02-15	46.7
Observed price	2023-02-27	42.0
Observed price	2023-03-11	39.8
Observed price	2023-03-31	44.5
Observed price	2023-04-16	45.6
Observed price	2023-04-28	42.9
Observed price	2023-05-02	43.2
Observed price	2023-05-06	48.4
Observed price	2023-05-30	44.7
Observed price	2023-06-23	48.9
Observed price	2023-07-05	49.5
Observed price	2023-07-13	54.2
Observed price	2023-08-06	56.6
Observed price	2023-08-18	50.9
Observed price	2023-08-30	52.5
Observed price	2023-09-15	48.4
Observed price	2023-09-19	47.5
Observed price	2023-10-13	43.3
Observed price	2023-10-17	41.8
Observed price	2023-11-10	36.0
Observed price	2023-11-14	38.1
Observed price	2023-12-08	46.4
Observed price	2023-12-12	47.3
Observed price	2023-12-24	59.1
Observed price	2024-01-17	51.9
Observed price	2024-01-29	58.4
Observed price	2024-02-14	58.1
Observed price	2024-02-22	53.2
Observed price	2024-03-09	57.6
Observed price	2024-03-17	47.7
Observed price	2024-04-06	47.4
Observed price	2024-04-18	41.8
Observed price	2024-05-16	44.6
Observed price	2024-05-24	39.7
Observed price	2024-05-28	39.8
Observed price	2024-06-21	48.4
Observed price	2024-07-03	45.8
Observed price	2024-07-15	51.6
Observed price	2024-08-04	43.3
Observed price	2024-08-16	53.9
Observed price	2024-09-05	53.6
Observed price	2024-09-13	59.7
Observed price	2024-09-21	66.7
Observed price	2024-10-07	60.8
Observed price	2024-10-27	59.0
Observed price	2024-11-08	73.9
Observed price	2024-11-16	73.1
Observed price	2024-11-28	85.1
Observed price	2024-12-10	82.0
Observed price	2024-12-30	74.6
Observed price	2025-01-11	71.1
Observed price	2025-01-31	82.2
Observed price	2025-02-08	87.5
Observed price	2025-02-24	75.2
Observed price	2025-03-04	74.4
Observed price	2025-03-28	68.7
Observed price	2025-04-01	69.8
Observed price	2025-04-21	60.3
Observed price	2025-05-11	70.1
Observed price	2025-05-23	65.4
Observed price	2025-05-27	67.0
Observed price	2025-06-12	71.8
Observed price	2025-06-28	69.8
Observed price	2025-07-10	78.9
Observed price	2025-07-30	79.0
Observed price	2025-08-15	85.1
Observed price	2025-08-31	83.1
Observed price	2025-09-08	89.9
Observed price	2025-09-16	88.5
Observed price	2025-10-10	69.7
Observed price	2025-10-14	72.3
Observed price	2025-10-22	77.4
Observed price	2025-11-19	67.2
Observed price	2025-12-05	74.7
Observed price	2025-12-09	74.6
Observed price	2026-01-02	65.9
Observed price	2026-01-26	69.6
Observed price	2026-01-30	63.0
Observed price	2026-02-03	58.9
Observed price	2026-02-23	42.8
Observed price	2026-03-07	46.0
Observed price	2026-03-27	40.4
Observed price	2026-04-12	40.3
Observed price	2026-04-20	47.3
Observed price	2026-05-02	44.8
Observed price	2026-05-22	36.5
Observed price	2026-05-26	35.7
Observed price	2026-06-19	31.3
Observed price	2026-06-23	30.5
Observed price	2026-07-17	33.9
Observed price	2026-07-25	31.2
Observed price	2026-08-14	34.8
Observed price	2026-08-22	36.3
Observed price	2026-09-11	32.5
Observed price	2026-09-15	32.5
Observed price	2026-09-18	29.8
Observed price	2026-09-21	30.6
Published advisor forecast	2026-06-04	35.9
Published advisor forecast	2026-09-04	34.1
Published advisor forecast	2026-12-04	35.1
Published advisor forecast	2027-03-04	36.9
Published advisor forecast	2027-06-04	39.9
Published advisor forecast	2027-09-04	39.1
Published advisor forecast	2027-12-04	43.0
Published advisor forecast	2028-03-04	48.1
Published advisor forecast	2028-06-04	50.5
Published advisor forecast	2028-09-04	54.6
Published advisor forecast	2028-12-04	62.8
Published advisor forecast	2029-03-04	65.3
Published advisor forecast	2029-06-04	70.5
Published advisor forecast	2029-09-04	67.7
Published advisor forecast	2029-12-04	73.8
Published advisor forecast	2030-03-04	78.2
Published advisor forecast	2030-06-04	86.0
Published advisor forecast	2030-09-04	90.3
Published advisor forecast	2030-12-04	97.5
Published advisor forecast	2031-03-04	101
Published advisor forecast	2031-06-04	109

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

If the macro environment normalizes faster than anticipated and Zillow successfully deploys a fully autonomous agentic transaction layer, the upside is exponential. A normalization of the yield curve unlocks millions of gridlocked homes just as Zillow's software is positioned to capture 2-3% of the transaction value.

End-to-end AI underwriting and closing completely bypasses human brokers.
Institutional capital plugs directly into Zillow's API, creating massive baseline liquidity.
Earnings power expands dramatically as the 'Housing Super App' monetizes the entire real estate lifecycle.
The market applies a SaaS/AI infrastructure multiple to Zillow's revenue, driving shares into the stratosphere.

Bear case

If the energy-driven stagflation regime calcifies and the Treasury market breaks, housing transactions could freeze for half a decade. Simultaneously, if Google or xAI successfully train multimodal models to bypass Zillow's front-end, the company's data moat evaporates.

8%+ mortgage rates cause a multi-year deep freeze in physical housing supply.
Foundational AI models disintermediate Zillow's search dominance, commoditizing the platform.
Legacy cartels successfully litigate to preserve analog commission structures, stalling digital disruption.
Zillow burns its cash hoarding users who cannot afford to actually transact.

Current crowd narrative

The Wall Street consensus views Zillow as a cyclical, rate-sensitive, ad-tech platform shackled to the analog real estate broker market. The media obsesses over 'golden handcuff' housing inventory shortages and high mortgage rates, treating Zillow as a proxy for housing macro. Traditional analysts see a high P/E ratio and dismiss it as expensive, entirely ignoring the underlying structural margin expansion and treating the NAR settlement as mere noise rather than a paradigm-shattering catalyst.

Alpha-gap assessment

The variant perception is profound: Wall Street is pricing Zillow as a derivative of human real estate agents. But from a first-principles perspective, Zillow is an company systematically engineering the obsolescence of the human agent. The crowd is blinded by near-term macro transaction volume, missing the fact that Zillow's software economics are capturing a vastly larger percentage of the transaction. The Alpha Gap is the failure to recognize that a 20% drop in overall housing transaction volume doesn't matter if Zillow's share of the transaction profit pool expands by 500% via vertical integration.

Convergence catalyst

The tipping point occurs when Zillow's transaction-based revenue (financing, closing, enhanced agent software) officially eclipses its legacy 'Premier Agent' top-of-funnel ad revenue for two consecutive quarters. This inflection, likely arriving in mid-2027, forces the market to formally re-rate Zillow from a cyclical ad-tech proxy into an AI transaction protocol.

Macro-regime alignment

The current macro regime is a brutal headwind. Elevated inflation, energy shocks, and a Warsh Fed holding the line at 3.50%-3.75% mean 6.5%+ mortgage rates are a persistent structural drag. The thesis must survive this thermodynamic friction. However, this macro pressure is actually accelerating the paradigm shift—desperate sellers and cost-conscious buyers are actively seeking to eliminate the 6% broker fee, forcing adoption of Zillow's digital alternatives.

Paywalled preview begins: Macro-regime alignment

From this section to the end-of-preview notice below, research is provided as simplified HTML text and tables. Full access provides the complete interactive interface, charts and additional datasets.

Sentiment and regime

Greed and fear sentiment: -0.3
Expected volatility regime: high_erratic
Convergence-cycle position: early_discovery

Primary drivers

Primary drivers supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Autonomous Agentic Transaction Layer	Zillow is fundamentally restructuring the archaic, multi-trillion-dollar real estate market by replacing human-friction bandwidth with AI execution. By leveraging LLMs trained on proprietary floor plans, local zoning, and behavioral clickstreams, Zillow is building an autonomous 'Housing Super App' capable of scheduling, underwriting, and closing without human middlemen. This drives price UP because it structurally expands their addressable market from top-of-funnel advertising into direct transaction capture, mathematically destroying the legacy 6% broker margin and replacing it with highly scalable software economics.	Not available%	+65.0%
POST NAR Settlement Cartel Collapse	The collapse of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) commission structure is an economic inevitability finally realized by legal physics. As buyer-agent fees unbundle, the legacy human broker is being exposed as an inefficient, rent-seeking node in the network. Zillow captures this displaced value. This drives price UP because it forces a massive reallocation of the $100 billion annual real estate commission pool away from analog labor and directly into Zillow's high-margin digital platform. The adoption curve for flat-fee and digital-first transactions is at its S-curve inflection point.	Not available%	+45.0%
Aggressive Capital Escape Velocity	Zillow survived the crucible of its 'Zillow Offers' iBuying catastrophe, fundamentally learning from its hardware-level physics mistake of holding illiquid physical inventory. Today, the company is an absolute cash-printing machine. Generating over $430M in TTM FCF and executing a staggering 12% TTM buyback yield ($626M in Q1 2026 alone), management is cannibalizing the float. This drives price UP because buying back shares at a massive discount to intrinsic future TAM mathematically guarantees outsized per-share equity compounding for the true believers who remain.	Not available%	+35.0%
Proprietary DATA MOAT Superiority	In the AI era, foundational models are commodities; proprietary data is the only defensible moat. Zillow possesses the most comprehensive database of US residential real estate in existence—200M+ monthly active users, decades of Zestimate historicals, and millions of 3D interior scans. This drives price UP because any competitor, big tech or startup, attempting to build a competing AI real estate agent faces an insurmountable cold-start problem. Zillow's data density provides an information-theoretic advantage that guarantees superior LLM performance in the specific domain of real estate.	Not available%	+25.0%

Primary frictions

Primary frictions supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
Golden Handcuff Housing Freeze	The thermodynamic reality of the current US housing market is total systemic gridlock. With 30-year mortgage rates anchored above 6.5% and a Warsh-led Fed holding rates higher-for-longer amid energy shocks, homeowners possessing sub-3% legacy mortgages cannot mathematically afford to sell. This drives price DOWN in the near term because transaction velocity—the fundamental engine of Zillow's revenue—is suppressed far below historical baselines, gating the company's ability to monetize its software platform at maximum scale until the macro rate regime normalizes.	Not available%	-30.0%
Generational Affordability Crisis	We are facing a structural collapse in housing affordability. Rampant asset inflation driven by fiat debasement has decoupled median home prices entirely from median wages. Millennials and Gen Z are increasingly priced out of the physical transaction layer. This drives price DOWN because a shrinking pool of eligible first-time homebuyers inherently caps the Total Addressable Market for transaction-based services. If users can only use Zillow for 'real estate porn' rather than actual purchasing, the conversion funnel metrics structurally degrade.	Not available%	-20.0%
Energy Shock Driven COST OF Living	The catastrophic Hormuz-driven energy shock of 2026 is acting as a massive regressive tax on the American consumer. Spiking gasoline, freight, and utility costs are incinerating household savings rates. This drives price DOWN because the capital required for a 20% down payment is being cannibalized by basic survival costs. When the base layer of Maslow's hierarchy is threatened by stagflation, long-duration capital investments like homeownership are immediately deferred, compressing Zillow's near-term mortgage and lead-generation pipelines.	Not available%	-15.0%
Legacy MLS Regulatory Counter Attacks	Incumbents facing extinction do not go quietly; they weaponize the state. Legacy real estate cartels, local Multiple Listing Services (MLS), and displaced broker unions will inevitably lobby for regulatory protectionism against digital platforms attempting to disintermediate them. This drives price DOWN because Zillow must burn capital and management bandwidth navigating anti-trust scrutiny and localized regulatory friction designed artificially to slow the transition to a pure digital transaction layer.	Not available%	-10.0%

Tail opportunities

Tail opportunities supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
END TO END Autonomous Closing Protocol	Zillow achieves the holy grail: a fully automated, legally compliant, AI-driven real estate transaction requiring zero human intervention from discovery to title transfer. By integrating smart contracts, AI underwriting, and automated digital title clearance, Zillow reduces transaction costs from 6% to 1%. I strongly believe this triggers massive price appreciation as Zillow effectively becomes the AWS of physical real estate, absorbing the entire industry margin and expanding its TAM exponentially.	35.0%	+120.0%
Sovereign/institutional Capital Integration	As global fiat systems fracture, sovereign wealth funds and massive institutions seek hard assets. Zillow partners to build an API that allows institutional capital to systematically deploy billions into single-family homes directly through the Zillow platform, bypassing all retail friction. This instantly transforms Zillow from a consumer app into the world's premier institutional real estate exchange, driving colossal, recurring B2B transaction volume and fundamentally resetting the stock's valuation multiple.	20.0%	+60.0%

Tail risks

Tail risks supplied in this advisor's published forecast
Force	Rationale	Probability	Expected price impact
BIG TECH AI Search Disintermediation	I am deeply concerned that hyperscalers like Google (Gemini) or xAI (Grok) successfully integrate hyper-local real estate data directly into their foundational AI models. If a user can simply ask their phone's native OS, 'Find and book a tour for a 3-bedroom house in Austin,' Zillow's app is disintermediated at the absolute top of the funnel. This degrades Zillow from a consumer destination into a commoditized data provider, crushing the core advertising and lead-gen business.	25.0%	-50.0%
Stagflationary Mortgage Market Collapse	The Warsh-led Fed loses control of the bond market as war-debt issuance and energy inflation spiral. US 10-year yields blow out, pushing 30-year mortgage rates to 10%+. The physics of housing affordability breaks completely. Transaction volume drops to near-zero as both buyers and sellers strike. Zillow's revenue engine stalls entirely, forcing the company to burn its cash reserves just to maintain infrastructure, invalidating the 'escape velocity' thesis.	15.0%	-45.0%

Step-by-step forecast path

Elon Musk forecast path for prediction task predrqst_batch_task__xrefsubjtskconf_fc6c2059-ff83-5ff2-aac3-c09fd7f59bcc__sb5__20260605080350
Step	Forecast date	Step change	Projected value (USD)	Scenario rationale
1	September 4, 2026	-5.0%	34.12	The brutal Hormuz macro shock and sticky 6.5%+ mortgage rates severely restrict housing turnover. Top-line transaction revenue faces a physical limit as the 'golden handcuff' effect paralyzes supply. Volatility is high, though massive buybacks prevent a deeper capitulation.
2	December 4, 2026	+3.0%	35.15	A stabilization phase. Q3 earnings confirm that while volume is down, Zillow's cost-discipline and pivot to high-margin software are defending free cash flow. The market begins to look past the immediate rate shock, realizing Zillow's balance sheet is fortress-like.
3	March 4, 2027	+5.0%	36.91	Early systemic benefits from the NAR settlement materialize. Flat-fee and digital-first transactions gain measurable market share. Zillow's enhanced software suite for the surviving top-tier agents drives increased wallet share.
4	June 4, 2027	+8.0%	39.86	Zillow announces a major AI product iteration—an agentic interface capable of end-to-end tour scheduling and preliminary mortgage underwriting. The market finally grasps the 'Housing Super App' thesis as execution velocity demonstrably accelerates.
5	September 4, 2027	-2.0%	39.06	Standard mid-cycle consolidation. Intermittent macro rate anxiety causes algorithmic rotation out of high-multiple software. Zillow uses the dip to execute another aggressive tranche of share repurchases.
6	December 4, 2027	+10.0%	42.97	Explosive realization of margin expansion. Q3 earnings demonstrate that Zillow is capturing a structurally higher percentage of total real estate industry profits despite overall transaction volume remaining historically average.
7	March 4, 2028	+12.0%	48.12	The S-curve hits the steep inflection point. AI-assisted transactions begin to cascade as consumers actively reject the archaic 6% human-broker fee in favor of Zillow's seamless, lower-cost digital rails. Wall Street upgrades targets en masse.
8	June 4, 2028	+5.0%	50.53	Macro environment normalizes, thawing the 'golden handcuff' housing freeze. Pent-up supply floods the market directly onto Zillow's platform, driving a massive spike in top-of-funnel traffic and subsequent financing conversions.
9	September 4, 2028	+8.0%	54.57	Zillow Home Loans achieves critical mass, transitioning Zillow from an ad-tech company into a dominant fintech originator. The seamless AI underwriting engine captures mortgage origination at near-zero customer acquisition cost.
10	December 4, 2028	+15.0%	62.76	A structural repricing. Zillow proves that its autonomous agentic layer can entirely replace human brokers in simplified transactions. The addressable market expands from lead generation to direct transaction capture. A true paradigm shift.
11	March 4, 2029	+4.0%	65.27	Slight deceleration in momentum as the company digests rapid growth and integrates newly captured transaction market share. Regulatory noise from dying MLS cartels causes minor friction but is largely dismissed by the market.
12	June 4, 2029	+8.0%	70.49	Zillow announces deeper partnerships with institutional capital, allowing sovereign wealth funds and massive asset managers to deploy capital directly via Zillow's infrastructure, proving the B2B TAM thesis.
13	September 4, 2029	-4.0%	67.67	Broader tech sector rotation and profit-taking following a massive multi-year run. The fundamental physics of the business remain untouched, but valuation multiples compress temporarily against competing capital opportunities.
14	December 4, 2029	+9.0%	73.76	Strong year-end fundamentals. Free cash flow margins are immense as the software-only, asset-light model scales to zero marginal cost for new transaction volume. Share count is radically reduced compared to 2026.
15	March 4, 2030	+6.0%	78.18	The legacy real estate broker is effectively marginalized into a luxury/bespoke service. Zillow is universally recognized as the default operating system for residential real estate in North America.
16	June 4, 2030	+10.0%	86.00	AI agents now handle title search, escrow, and financing concurrently in seconds. The unit economics are staggering. Zillow trades purely as an AI infrastructure monopoly, demanding a premium multiple.
17	September 4, 2030	+5.0%	90.30	Continued steady compounding. The platform begins expanding into adjacent verticals—insurance, moving logistics, and home maintenance—utilizing its absolute dominance of the homeowner lifecycle.
18	December 4, 2030	+8.0%	97.53	Zillow's data moat proves unassailable. Even as foundational AI models achieve massive scale, they rely heavily on Zillow's APIs for real-world residential data, turning potential competitors into paying customers.
19	March 4, 2031	+4.0%	101.43	Maturation phase of the new paradigm. Growth rates normalize, but the company operates as an incredibly durable cash-flow compounder. Investors rely on the impregnable network effects.
20	June 4, 2031	+7.0%	108.53	End of forecast horizon. Zillow has successfully completed the digital paradigm shift of real estate. The physical atoms of housing are seamlessly managed by Zillow's bits, solidifying its position as a generational wealth creator.

Advisor and configuration

Advisor: elon_musk__the_visionary__google_gemini_3_1_pro__20260201_preview_release
Persona: Elon Musk
Archetype: The Visionary
Model: (February 01, 2026) Preview Release
Provider: Google
Mode: THINKER with High Reasoning and Standard Creativity
Task configuration: elon_musk__the_visionary__google_gemini_3_1_pro__20260201_preview_release__equity__json__extnd_invest_thesis_4q_alphassym__ts_num_desc__h5y_s3m__var1__thinker__standard_creativity_high_thinking__batch
Forecast horizon: 5 year
Forecast steps: 20 steps of 3 month
Assembly type: Balanced Assembly
Assembly name: elon_musk__the_visionary__google_gemini_3_1_pro__20260201_preview_release THINKER Forecast Assembly
Input format: inmemory_base_placeholders__latest_eod_close_price_with_stats_and_fundamentals__var1
Output format: Equity Extended Investment Thesis (4 Quadrants and Alpha Asymmetry) + Pct Change Timeseries for Close Price with Rationale, (5Y Quarterly)

Read the complete Elon Musk advisor methodology

Configuration components

aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa (subject_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_efec62e4-24c0-556a-8070-775c69b97643 (global_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_3c0c459a-0d4a-50ca-87df-c172ec5618aa (subject_context)
aiassmprmtcmpnt_8115cc2a-d418-54b1-a616-49dfa91195f4 (task_guidelines)

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