AI Consensus Investment Thesis
Z: Zillow Group Stock Price, Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year and 5 Year Targets
Zillow Group: 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook and Rating
Zillow Group (Z) has an immediate No Action - Keep Monitoring consensus AI recommendation, based on 14 AI analysts.
The 1-year target is $33.5 for , with +3.91% expected return (+3.91% including net dividends) and a NEUTRAL rating.
The 5-year target is $62.5 for , with +93.86% expected return (+93.86% including net dividends) and a BUY rating.
Latest available market price: USD 32.2, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
Targets retain their original publication dates. Returns use the dated market close and the time remaining to each fixed target date. Current ratings also require fresh quotes and analysis, with more than 90 days remaining. Past targets have no forward return. Eligibility checked .
Zillow Group Flagship Insight
Digital Real Estate Leader Monetizes Countercyclical Rents Amid Housing Turnover Freeze
A sharp divergence defines market views: while elevated mortgage rates freeze residential transaction velocity, countercyclical rental marketplace expansion and software monetization sustain double-digit top-line growth. High stock compensation and listing-feed litigation cap multiple expansion, but operating leverage supports long-term value accumulation.
How were the Investment Thesis and Forecasts created?
14 AI advisors, guided by 9 analytical frameworks, contribute to the deep analysis by iPulse AI Engine.
Superintelligence (Anthropologist)
Warren Buffett (Value Purist)
Universal Investor (Polymath)
J.P. Morgan (Titan)
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower)
Elon Musk (Visionary)
Michael Burry (Vulture)
Ray Dalio (Strategist)
Machiavelli (Insider)
Ran across these frontier AI models
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
Latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Zillow Group: forecast questions
What is Zillow Group (Z)'s 1-year price forecast?
Zillow Group's 1-year target is $33.5 for Sept 2027. The current AI rating is NEUTRAL. The expected return from the recorded close is +3.91%, or +3.91% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 32.2, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is Zillow Group (Z)'s 5-year price forecast?
Zillow Group's 5-year target is $62.5 for Sept 2031. The current AI rating is BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +93.86%, or +93.86% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 32.2, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is the return basis?
Latest available market price: USD 32.2, as of 20 Oct 2026. These are model projections, not guaranteed future prices.
How can I compare the AI opinions and audit past Zillow Group forecasts?
14 AI analysts contribute to this publication. AI Opinions shows individual advisor forecasts and reasoning. Forecast History preserves earlier published batches; their figures describe their original publication, not today's outlook.
How does an AI-generated forecast for Zillow Group differ from Wall Street analyst consensus?
Wall Street consensus aggregates estimates from human analysts. For listed companies, these typically include brokerage price targets, earnings forecasts and ratings. iPulse AI's forecast for Zillow Group is a separate AI consensus generated through its own research workflow. Different inputs, forecast dates, assumptions and weighting can therefore produce different targets.
We believe the era of investment research conducted only by human analysts is drawing to a close. Frontier models increasingly match or exceed expert work on selected professional benchmarks, including evaluations covering financial analysis. Research on multi-model synthesis also shows that combining model responses can improve on a single model's output in the tasks studied.
iPulse AI generates transparent investment research and market forecasts using a swarm of AI configurations, analytical frameworks and frontier models. The workflow applies multiple verification, challenge and synthesis layers, with selective editorial review under Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief. Published assumptions, disagreements and past forecasts remain available so readers can inspect the reasoning and audit outcomes.
For a research cycle covering 426 assets with 14 perspectives per asset, our internal workload model estimates approximately 114,000 hours of traditional analyst work. It assumes 16 hours per individual research report, 28 hours per consensus for synthesis and validation, plus shared data preparation. Parallel AI execution allows a deep-analysis cycle across hundreds of assets to complete in up to one day. The human-hours figure is an illustrative workload estimate, rather than measured time savings. Our research methodology explains the automated workflow.
Zillow Group: Investment Thesis Summary
Dotted terms link to the glossary; hover or focus for a preview. Browse technical terms
If you invest $10,000 in Zillow Group at the latest market close (20 Oct 2026): $19,386 by Sept 2031 versus $13,751 for S&P 500 benchmark.
Returns use the same dated market close, fixed targets and remaining dividend period as the forecast table.
The base-case economic argument centers on an asset-light monetization model decoupling from a cyclical housing turnover trough. While ten-year Treasury yields near five percent and seven-percent mortgage rates prolong existing-homeowner lock-in, top-of-funnel consumer dominance enables eighteen-percent revenue expansion through multifamily rentals, mortgage origination, and workflow software. Fixed-cost absorption following the 2026 workforce restructuring creates substantial operating leverage. However, valuation remains highly sensitive to equity compensation dilution and liquidity constraints, as aggressive buybacks depleted cash reserves to 682 million dollars. The strongest counterargument highlights persistent buyer-broker commission deflation, FTC rental competition mandates, and regional MLS arbitration disputes that cap take-rate expansion.
Key insights
- Preferred connection cohorts and mortgage attach convert casual portal traffic into higher transaction take-rates, driving structural margin expansion as macro turnover normalizes.
- Multifamily rental expansion approaching a one-billion-dollar annual run-rate provides vital countercyclical cash generation that buffers platform earnings against prolonged interest-rate volatility.
- Excessive annual stock-based compensation remains the primary wedge between adjusted EBITDA and GAAP profits, requiring anti-dilution repurchases that limit organic balance-sheet accumulation.
Zillow Group: 5 Year Consensus Forecast
20 quarterly price targets, returns and rationale, with advisor range and benchmark
Forward returns are updated using the latest market close price of USD 32.2, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
The consensus target follows an expert-weighted price path synthesized from 14 AI advisor opinions. See Opinion weights and rationale for the exact allocation and reasoning.
Forecast methodology and reference values
Published targets are anchored on 18 Sept 2026 at USD 29.8. Original quarter-to-quarter target changes are retained. Forward returns use the remaining time to each fixed target date.
The pessimistic and optimistic advisor base cases are the lowest and highest published advisor base-case targets for each quarter. The advisor at either extreme can change between quarters. Benchmark values are in USD.
Scroll the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Evidence-Weighted Consensus Price Path | Individual Advisor Range & Reference Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus target (USD) | Forecast quarter-to-quarter price change | Forward price return | Forward return incl. net dividends | Forecast rationale | Pessimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | Optimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | |
| $29.9 | +0.33% | -7.26% | -7.26% | Elevated mortgage rates and transition friction in transaction revenue recognition temper near-term optimism. However, outperforming multifamily rental growth and ongoing share repurchases provide immediate downside support, keeping pricing relatively stable. | $27.4 | $31.3 | $750 | |
| $30.7 | +2.72% | -4.78% | -4.78% | Winter seasonality and sticky interest rates suppress homebuyer volume, while full-year results confirm modest GAAP profitability. Corporate restructuring savings begin materializing, offsetting elevated stock compensation and keeping valuation multiples anchored. | $26.3 | $32.9 | $736 | |
| $32.5 | +5.67% | +0.81% | +0.81% | Spring transaction activity demonstrates solid adoption of Listing Showcase and touring software. Expanding rental subscriptions and mortgage originations deliver sequential operating leverage, driving a modest relief re-rating across public markets. | $26.1 | $35.2 | $743 | |
| $33.5 | +3.04% | +3.91% | +3.91% | Redfin rental competition and MLS arbitration headlines create headline noise, but Enhanced Markets monetization gains traction. Growth across non-residential verticals proves resilient, confirming structural diversification away from legacy home turnover. | $24.8 | $37.3 | $755 | |
| $35.1 | +4.82% | +8.87% | +8.87% | Multifamily rental listings reach record scale, generating steady subscription cash flow. Reduced restructuring charges allow improved cash conversion, reinforcing investor confidence in the durability of the transformed asset-light platform. | $25.3 | $39.1 | $776 | |
| $37.1 | +5.91% | +15.07% | +15.07% | Preliminary hints of monetary easing soften benchmark bond yields, stimulating early spring touring demand. Software subscriptions from brokerages provide stable baseline revenue, enabling positive earnings revisions across equity coverage. | $26.3 | $42.3 | $787 | |
| $39.7 | +6.81% | +23.14% | +23.14% | Mortgage rate moderation unlocks pent-up existing home inventory, accelerating residential transaction velocity. High incremental contribution margins on agent connections propel quarterly operating income upward, validating long-anticipated operating leverage. | $27.6 | $46.1 | $803 | |
| $41.3 | +4.17% | +28.10% | +28.10% | Summer closing volumes convert into substantial fee revenue, while mortgage origination approaches standalone breakeven. Disciplined cost control keeps overhead stable, allowing incremental gross profit to flow cleanly into operating cash. | $27.1 | $48.8 | $812 | |
| $42.7 | +3.32% | +32.44% | +32.44% | Seasonal transaction slowing is cushioned by sticky software ARR and rental renewals. Management moderates share repurchases to rebuild balance-sheet liquidity, maintaining steady valuation support into year-end financial reporting. | $27.9 | $51.3 | $839 | |
| $44.8 | +5.04% | +38.96% | +38.96% | Demographic family formations and normalized borrowing costs stimulate healthy spring market demand. Digital workflow integration across partner brokerages drives higher transaction conversion, supporting solid first-quarter revenue expansion. | $29.0 | $54.9 | $851 | |
| $47.0 | +4.84% | +45.78% | +45.78% | Broad housing market turnover normalizes toward multi-year equilibrium. Peak seasonal transaction throughput combines with mature take-rates to produce strong GAAP net income, prompting multiple expansion across institutional models. | $30.7 | $59.3 | $872 | |
| $48.8 | +3.89% | +51.36% | +51.36% | Rental marketplace monetization achieves mature profitability, while digital closing attach rates expand transaction revenue yields. Cash generation comfortably funds continuous technology reinvestment without requiring external debt financing. | $31.3 | $62.7 | $886 | |
| $50.6 | +3.63% | +56.95% | +56.95% | Cumulative share count reductions over preceding quarters visibly concentrate per-share owner earnings. High platform engagement deters competitive encroachment, preserving firm valuation levels through the winter seasonal trough. | $31.0 | $64.7 | $910 | |
| $52.6 | +3.89% | +63.15% | +63.15% | Automated workflow tools and AI-driven property matching enhance conversion efficiency across mobile search surfaces. Predictable recurring subscription cash flows from enterprise brokerage tools establish a defensive first-quarter earnings baseline. | $32.3 | $68.5 | $916 | |
| $54.8 | +4.21% | +69.98% | +69.98% | Resilient spring transaction velocity intersects with closed-loop transaction monetization, generating record operating cash flow. Operating margins widen as fixed technology investments are absorbed across expanding transaction volume. | $33.9 | $73.3 | $937 | |
| $55.9 | +2.10% | +73.39% | +73.39% | Revenue growth moderates to sustainable low-teens rates as cyclical comparisons mature. High cash conversion and strong competitive positioning preserve premium marketplace multiples against broader economic deceleration. | $34.9 | $77.0 | $947 | |
| $57.2 | +2.30% | +77.42% | +77.42% | Full-year results confirm durable double-digit operating margins and substantial cumulative float reduction. Capital allocation discipline ensures steady free cash flow delivery, keeping shareholder returns securely on an upward path. | $35.5 | $78.5 | $970 | |
| $59.2 | +3.37% | +83.62% | +83.62% | Strong rental renewals and stable mortgage financing attach rates provide dependable earnings ahead of the homebuying season. The platform commands unmatched consumer mindshare, defending lead-generation pricing power across major metropolitan regions. | $36.2 | $81.6 | $980 | |
| $61.2 | +3.42% | +89.83% | +89.83% | Matured residential transaction turnover yields high-velocity lead conversions and closing fees. Modest equity compensation growth allows a higher proportion of operating income to translate directly into diluted per-share earnings. | $37.3 | $85.7 | $1,000 | |
| $62.5 | +2.22% | +93.86% | +93.86% | The five-year transformation culminates with the enterprise established as the essential software and transaction infrastructure for residential mobility, commanding a defensible marketplace valuation on durable cash generation. | $37.3 | $88.3 | $1,012 | |
Show remaining 18 quartersShow first 2 quarters only
All 20 quarters are displayed in the table above.
Zillow Group Stock Analysis & Scenarios Deep Dive
Zillow Group: Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market consensus treats the business as an interest-rate casualty trapped in a multi-year housing freeze. The outside crowd anchors on depressed existing home sales, five-percent Treasury yields, and commission compression from the National Association of Realtors settlement. Public commentary assumes that agent ad spending must permanently contract, dismissing recent top-line acceleration as low-quality volume masked by optically expensive trailing GAAP price-to-earnings multiples.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd underestimates the shares' underlying value, creating an underpricing gap driven by misdiagnosed revenue mix. Investors mistakenly equate the business with national transaction volumes, failing to recognize that non-cyclical rentals and mortgage origination now compound above thirty percent. Furthermore, the market overlooks fixed-cost operating leverage from corporate restructuring and massive buyback accretion. However, the bull edge is constrained by real stock-compensation dilution and listing-access disputes that consensus bulls ignore.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Consecutive quarterly earnings releases in mid-2027 demonstrating sustainable GAAP operating margin expansion above six percent will trigger market repricing. Corroborated by multifamily rental revenue crossing a one-billion-dollar run-rate and stabilizing mortgage origination profitability, institutional models will be forced to value the platform as an asset-light software marketplace rather than a cyclical lead-generation board.
Zillow Group: Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed and Fear Sentiment
- Fear
- Volatility Regime
- High Erratic
- Convergence Cycle Position
- Stabilization
Opinions agree on pervasive macro fear and high volatility, but split on cycle timing: value-oriented views diagnose a stabilization base, while skeptics warn of multiple capitulation driven by listing disputes, traffic declines, and persistent executive stock dilution.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The prevailing macro regime of restrictive monetary policy, four-percent policy rates, and elevated long-term bond yields is a distinct headwind for residential turnover. High mortgage rates cement the housing lock-in effect. However, this liquidity squeeze acts as a structural tailwind for rentals by expanding tenant pools, while a zero-net-debt balance sheet insulates the business from credit-refinancing distress.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The decisive analytical debate centers on whether Zillow is an asset-light software marketplace capturing structural tollbooth economics or a cyclical advertising classifieds board burdened by persistent stock dilution and listing vulnerability. Bullish perspectives argue that thirty-percent rental expansion and integrated mortgage attach demonstrate business model decoupling, with aggressive buybacks creating explosive per-share intrinsic value. Skeptics counter that GAAP operating profits remain near zero while four hundred million dollars in annual equity compensation and depleted balance-sheet cash undermine buyback durability. Resolving this tension requires tracking whether mid-2027 GAAP operating margins expand above six percent organically.
Zillow Group: Critical Influencing Factors
Near-certain positive forcesTop Drivers & Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multifamily rental marketplace scaling | Competitive Positioning | +28% | +35% | Multifamily property listings expanded over thirty percent, driving quarterly rental revenue past two hundred million dollars. This countercyclical engine capitalizes on elevated mortgage rates that keep prospective buyers renting longer. Generating high-margin subscription cash flow, it cushions consolidated margins and decouples top-line expansion from cyclical resale transaction volume across the multi-year forecast horizon. |
| Integrated transaction fee monetization | Innovation And Product | +25% | +32% | Transitioning from upfront lead advertising into Preferred transaction revenue-shares and Zillow Home Loans attachments expands monetization per customer. Capturing mortgage origination fees and closing success tolls increases revenue per transaction value beyond legacy levels. As producing agent teams adopt integrated software, structural unit economics and gross profit conversion compound through normalized housing cycles. |
| Operating leverage from corporate restructuring | Operational Efficiency | +22% | +28% | Workforce rationalization in mid-2026 generated approximately seventy-five million dollars in direct annualized run-rate savings while stabilizing research and development outlays. With platform technology infrastructure largely built out, incremental revenue from rentals and software flows through at high contribution margins, driving significant GAAP operating income expansion as top-line compounding outpaces fixed overhead growth. |
| Aggressive counter-cyclical share repurchases | Capital Allocation | +18% | +15% | Management retired over eight hundred million dollars in equity during early 2026, delivering a net buyback yield above sixteen percent. Purchasing shares at cyclical trough valuations reduces diluted float, permanently concentrating per-share free cash flow. This capital allocation strategy provides tangible downside price support and mathematically magnifies future earnings-per-share expansion as market turnover recovers. |
Near-certain negative forcesTop Frictions & Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prolonged mortgage rate lock-in | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -20% | -25% | Ten-year Treasury yields near five percent keep mortgage rates hovering between 6.5% and 7.5%, cementing the golden-handcuff effect for existing homeowners with legacy sub-4% loans. National resale turnover remains depressed near historical troughs, directly suppressing transaction-dependent residential lead volume and delaying cyclical operating leverage across core agent advertising channels. |
| Antitrust buyer-broker commission compression | Regulatory | -16% | -18% | Implementation of the National Association of Realtors settlement decouples buyer-broker compensation, structurally eroding aggregate commission pools. As buyer-agent commission rates face downward pressure, marginal agents exit the industry and marketing budgets contract. This industry-wide fee compression creates persistent pricing resistance on Premier Agent advertising spend, requiring volume market-share gains simply to defend revenue. |
| Stock-based compensation earnings dilution | Management And Governance | -14% | -16% | Annual stock-based compensation exceeding four hundred million dollars remains a heavy recurring drag on shareholder value. The large gap between adjusted EBITDA and GAAP profitability distorts accounting earnings, while open-market share buybacks primarily absorb employee option dilution rather than driving pure net float reduction, limiting reported net margin expansion over the forecast horizon. |
| Listing access and feed litigation | Competitive Positioning | -12% | -10% | Federal court decisions denying preliminary injunctions against regional MLS data suspensions, such as MRED in Chicago, expose platform dependence on external listing feeds. Contentious syndication negotiations and rival portal investments elevate legal overhead and customer acquisition costs, threatening complete inventory display advantages and restricting algorithmic monetization flexibility across key metropolitan markets. |
Zillow Group: What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Event Risk Score: High 61/100Asset-level relative pressure from clustered consensus frictions and tail risks. This is not the probability or risk score of an individual force.Plausible downside scenariosTail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOJ portal steering antitrust injunction | 28% | -40% | Adverse Department of Justice antitrust action or regulatory enforcement targeting real estate portal steering and exclusive broker routing could dismantle the Preferred monetization framework by mid-2027. Prohibiting success-based commission splits or mandating open listing syndication would severely impair platform take-rates, reducing residential segment cash flows by more than a third and collapsing enterprise valuation multiples. |
| Severe stagflationary residential freeze | 20% | -38% | A persistent global energy shock pushing ten-year Treasury yields past 5.5% could drive mortgage rates above 8.5% through 2027. Affordability destruction would collapse existing home turnover below 3.5 million units. Pervasive brokerage insolvencies and mass agent attrition would severely impair Premier Agent advertising subscriptions and mortgage originations, pushing consolidated GAAP operating results into deep deficits. |
Plausible upside scenariosTail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro mortgage rate easing inflection | 32% | +55% | A decisive macroeconomic disinflation cycle driving benchmark ten-year Treasury yields below 3.75% would pull mortgage rates toward 5.5% by 2028. Breaking the rate-lock freeze would unleash years of pent-up household formation, surging existing home sales toward 5.5 million annualized units. High operating leverage on established platform overhead would rapidly double GAAP operating income and free cash flow. |
| Closed-loop digital transaction monopoly | 22% | +45% | Achieving nationwide scale in automated digital touring, mortgage underwriting, and closing software by 2029 could establish an indispensable transaction utility. Capturing integrated financing, escrow, and title tolls exceeding one hundred basis points per home purchase would triple platform revenue per transaction. Network effects would expand operating margins past twenty-five percent, triggering a major market valuation re-rating. |
Company Financial AnalysisZillow Group: Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included. View latest Zillow Group financials here.
Earnings and financials
The latest financial results tell a story of strong top-line recovery alongside fragile accounting profitability. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached 2.81 billion dollars through mid-2026, growing eighteen percent year-over-year despite a frozen housing turnover market. This expansion was driven by multifamily rental revenue surging over thirty percent and purchase mortgage originations jumping seventy-five percent, demonstrating that the business is no longer tethered solely to home sales. However, true accounting profits remain modest, with trailing net income at fifty-five million dollars and the second quarter of 2026 recording a slight net loss. While trailing free cash flow reached 250 million dollars, expanding mortgage originations consume working capital. Long-term progress requires turning top-line momentum into repeatable GAAP net income.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 2.6B | USD 23M | USD 235M |
| 2024 | USD 2.2B | USD -112M | USD 285M |
| 2023 | USD 1.9B | USD -158M | USD 189M |
| 2022 | USD 2B | USD -101M | USD 4.4B |
| 2021 | USD 2.1B | USD -528M | USD -3.3B |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | >100x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2021 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
Gross profit margins remain structurally wide at 74.1%, showcasing strong pricing power across digital marketplace listings. The slight decline from historical eighty-percent levels reflects a growing revenue mix from mortgage originations and rental marketing, which carry higher direct fulfillment costs than pure advertising but contribute substantial incremental gross dollars. In contrast, operating margins have lingered near breakeven, improving from negative territory to slightly positive on a trailing basis. The wide gap between a twenty-three percent adjusted EBITDA margin and negligible GAAP operating income is caused by heavy employee stock compensation. Delivering true operating leverage requires revenue growth to consistently outpace overhead while stock grants moderate.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD -32M | -1.2% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | USD -197M | -8.8% | -5.0% |
| 2023 | USD -270M | -13.9% | -8.1% |
| 2022 | USD -93M | -4.7% | -5.2% |
| 2021 | USD 239M | 11.2% | -24.8% |
Balance sheet and leverage
The balance sheet provides substantial structural resilience against macroeconomic downturns. Stockholders' equity stood at 4.88 billion dollars with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and no burdensome near-term debt maturities. This clean solvency profile ensures complete independence from elevated interest rates and tight commercial bank lending conditions. However, liquidity reserves have been significantly drawn down by aggressive financial engineering. Cash and short-term investments fell from 1.2 billion dollars to 682 million dollars in mid-2026 after management deployed over 826 million dollars into share repurchases. Because buybacks exceeded organic free cash flow, the company must moderate its repurchase pace until cash generation expands.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Reported net cash / (debt) | Debt less (cash + short-term investments), calculated | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 536M | USD 1.3B | USD 237M net cash | USD -759M | 3.13x |
| 2024 | USD 743M | USD 1.9B | USD 342M net cash | USD -1.1B | 2.81x |
| 2023 | USD 1.8B | USD 2.8B | USD 340M net debt | USD -978M | 3.24x |
| 2022 | USD 1.9B | USD 3.4B | USD 401M net debt | USD -1.5B | 13.34x |
| 2021 | USD 1.6B | USD 2.8B | USD 711M net cash | USD -1.2B | 1.98x |
Reported net debt retains the source definition, which can deduct cash alone. Cash plus short-term investments is broader liquidity; the separately calculated column subtracts that full amount from total debt for the same fiscal period and currency. Reported net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
Management has maintained strict investment discipline following the complete shutdown of the capital-heavy home-flipping business. Capital expenditures were modest at 5.15% of revenue in fiscal 2025, with cash outlays dedicated to internal software development, artificial intelligence search features, and virtual touring tools rather than physical property inventory. This capital lightness allows the business to convert gross revenue into operating cash flow. While research and development consumes over six hundred million dollars annually in engineering salaries, a corporate restructuring in mid-2026 established a leaner expense base. Management is prioritizing high-return software features that increase transaction conversion over costly infrastructure expansion.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 133M | USD 607M |
| 2024 | USD 143M | USD 585M |
| 2023 | USD 165M | USD 560M |
| 2022 | USD 140M | USD 498M |
| 2021 | USD 104.4M | USD 421M |
Behind the synthesisZillow Group: How Each Individual AI Forecaster Opinion Shapes the Global Consensus
This publication’s recorded synthesis allocated voting influence across 14 advisor opinions. The weights and rationales below are retained from that synthesis.
The independently supported consensus reveals a business successfully decoupling revenue growth from frozen residential housing turnover through rapid rental marketplace expansion and higher transaction monetization. However, reports diverge sharply on earnings quality. Bullish perspectives project dramatic operating leverage and benefit from massive share buybacks, while rigorous empirical reports demonstrate that stock-based compensation exceeding four hundred million dollars annually severely depresses true GAAP profitability. Furthermore, primary filings confirm cash reserves fell from 1.2 billion dollars to 682 million dollars in mid-2026 due to repurchases outpacing organic free cash flow, while mortgage origination consumes working capital. Regulatory disputes, including FTC rental mandates and regional MLS arbitration setbacks, introduce real frictions. Consequently, relative weights prioritize filings-grounded analyses that incorporate dilution and restructuring reality over unconstrained multiple expansion, while preserving the proven structural power of countercyclical rental compounding.
All 14 opinions
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra · 2026-09-03 releaseWeight: 11.4%
Exemplary primary-source verification incorporating SEC filings, FTC settlements, and MLS arbitration rulings. It grounds valuation in diluted shares, restructuring charges, and realistic terminal multiples, providing the most causally disciplined forecast path.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 · 2026-07-24 releaseWeight: 11.4%
Superior empirical grounding using Q2 2026 disclosures. It uniquely highlights mortgage working-capital absorption, traffic contraction, and the mathematical unsustainability of current buyback run-rates without a cash-flow inflection, balancing growth against structural frictions.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 9.5%
This analysis provides robust, source-verified evidence detailing Zillow's transition toward Enhanced Markets and counter-cyclical rental monetization. Its causal link between non-transactional revenue expansion and operating leverage is persuasive, though it mildly underweights the cash drain from stock compensation.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.6%
Excellent identification of fixed-cost operating discipline and multifamily listing expansion approaching a billion-dollar run rate. It balances top-line growth against rate lock-in frictions with coherent causal mechanisms.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.6%
Provides a sound owner-earnings framework distinguishing asset-light toll extraction from cyclical home turnover. It rightly identifies wide gross margins, though its timeline for full turnover mean reversion is somewhat optimistic.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.6%
Details the operational shift toward Preferred revenue-share arrangements and corporate restructuring savings. Its assessment of top-tier agent consolidation is realistic, though regulatory scrutiny on exclusive syndication remains an underappreciated friction.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.7%
Presents strong insight into per-share value concentration driven by an aggressive buyback program. However, its terminal multiple expansion assumptions are overly aggressive given persistent benchmark interest rates and regulatory headwinds surrounding agent steering.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.7%
Offers a compelling synthesis of rental marketplace decoupling and enterprise software attach. It captures the balance-sheet resilience well, though it partially discounts the timing delay in mortgage closing revenue recognition.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.7%
Strong long-term debt cycle framing that captures how non-cyclical rentals buffer high-interest-rate environments. It provides good capital allocation logic, although its terminal free cash flow conversion assumes seamless mortgage scaling.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.7%
Clear focus on competitive moats and per-share intrinsic value accretion from buybacks. It correctly notes low balance sheet leverage, but glosses over the gross margin compression from expanding mortgage origination.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.7%
Disciplined assessment of post-iBuying capital lightness and software monetization through ShowingTime and Follow Up Boss. It properly identifies FCF inflection, though it minimizes the regulatory overhang from commission unbundling.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 4.8%
The report presents a rigorous critique of agent commission compression and heavy stock dilution. However, it overstates the immediate threat of generative AI search disintermediation while downplaying the structural durability of rental marketplace revenue.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 4.8%
A disciplined value assessment highlighting razor-thin GAAP operating margins and high trailing multiples. It accurately notes the liquidity drain from buybacks, but underestimates operating leverage from software integrations and countercyclical multifamily listing expansion.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 3.8%
Accurately highlights the grotesque gap between adjusted EBITDA and GAAP net income while noting buyback liquidity depletion. However, its near-term path is excessively punitive regarding immediate organic traffic collapse.
References & Context
Research Provenance
Analysis generated by iPulse AI Engine v7 using recorded market data, operating under the editorial standards and supervision of Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief.
External references below are sources recorded by the researcher agents for this Zillow Group forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher web32 available sources from this batch (62 recorded). The first 15 are shown below; expand to read the rest.
- FTC Secures Order Resolving Antitrust Concerns with Zillow-Redfin Agreement | Federal Trade Commission ftc.gov
- www.sec.gov sec.gov
- www.sec.gov sec.gov
- z-20260630 sec.gov
- ZILLOW GROUP, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2025 sec.gov
- urban compass cbinsights.com
- Zillow resolves FTC lawsuit over claims it paid Redfin to suppress rental listings - Chicago Sun-Times chicago.suntimes.com
- __symbol__ Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN cnn.com
- Case 2:25-cv-01818-JLR Document 45 Filed 12/29/25 Page 47 of 100 cohenmilstein.com
- MEMORANDUM Opinion and Order: For the reasons set forth in the attached Memorandum Opinion and Order, the plaintiff's motion for preliminary injunction is denied for Zillow Group, Inc. et al v. Midwest Real Estate Data LLC et al :: Justia Dockets & Filings docs.justia.com
- MRED Suspends Listing Data Feeds to Zillow Group finance.yahoo.com
- Zillow Group Inc (Z) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and AI Momentum ... finance.yahoo.com
- Zillow Group, Inc. Class C Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary finance.yahoo.com
- Zillow Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates on Solid Revenue Growth finance.yahoo.com
- How the FTC's last-minute settlement with Zillow and Redfin reshapes their $100M rentals deal – GeekWire geekwire.com
Show 17 more sources
- Zillow Group Inc (ZG) Shares Fall 3.6% -- What GF Score of 64 Tells Investors gurufocus.com
- Zillow loses injunction battle with MRED, Compass over listing rules | Inman Real Estate News inman.com
- Zillow Group, Inc. - Zillow's August Market Report shows elevated rates dampen home sales investors.zillowgroup.com
- Zillow Group, Inc. - Zillow's Structural AI Advantage - Our Thoughts investors.zillowgroup.com
- Zillow Sues MRED and Compass Over Chicago Listings Fight joinkale.com
- Zillow Group (Z) Q2 2026 Summary | Quartr quartr.com
- Compass drops lawsuit after Zillow embraces pre-marketing realestatenews.com
- Zillow can continue enforcing private listing ban, judge rules realestatenews.com
- Zillow, Redfin strike deal with FTC to avoid trial realestatenews.com
- Contacts: Investors Brad Berning ir@zillowgroup.com Media Gina Cole s25.q4cdn.com
- Form 10-K s25.q4cdn.com
- Zillow Group (NasdaqGS:ZG) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St simplywall.st
- Zillow Group (Z) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets stockanalysis.com
- Zillow Group (NASDAQ: Z) details Q2 growth and 2026 margin targets stocktitan.net
- Zillow Cuts More Than 500 Jobs as Q2 Revenue Rises 18% - The Close theclose.com
- Compass Dismisses Zillow Lawsuit Following Federal Court Ruling - The MortgagePoint themortgagepoint.com
- ZG Stock Forecast 2026 - Zillow Price Targets & Predictions tickernerd.com
30 additional sources are recorded in this batch; their citation details are not available in this publication.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
Archived context covering 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31. Its recorded scope includes technology and capital cycle; trade and industrial policy; monetary policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
Show moreShow less
- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 13.3K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 22.7K tokens
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Archived context covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20. Its recorded scope includes monetary policy and rates; geopolitics energy and shipping; trade and industrial policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
Show moreShow less
- File size
- 84.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.4K words
- Characters
- 84.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 21.2K tokens
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental Context Passed as Input to the Models
Time range: Annual fiscal periods: 2014-12-31–2025-12-31, 12 periods; Quarterly fiscal periods: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods.
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
Show moreShow less
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
End of the paywalled preview
The excerpt from Deep Dive: detailed analysis to this notice is the simplified paywalled content included on this page. A signed-in, verified account with the required subscription provides the full interactive interface and the additional research, datasets and tools listed below.
Those additional materials are not included in this preview and cannot be revealed by removing its visual restrictions.
Additional with full access
Individual AI Advisor reports
- Investment theses
- Bull and bear scenarios and alpha signals
- Drivers, headwinds, risks and opportunities
- Quarterly forecast rationale
- Advisor research references and configuration
Additional datasets and interactive tools
- Interactive forecast comparisons
- Available detailed financial statements
- Market history and corporate-action adjustments
- Eligible historical publication workspaces
Explore complete public research examples
These public assets show the complete AI Consensus research. Their findings concern those assets, not this report.