Moderna, Inc. (MRNA.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Superintelligence AI
Price-adjusted rating
Buy
5-Year Return Est.
+109.1%
MRNA.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
Can scientific validation sustain a 61 billion dollar equity value before commercial cash arrives? Moderna's successful INTerpath-001 melanoma readout definitively proves that individualized mRNA neoantigen therapy stimulates potent anti-tumor immunity. However, the commercial transition requires substantial time, capital, and execution discipline. While management targets 2028 cash breakeven by trimming research expenditures and expanding its seasonal respiratory portfolio, near-term financial reality features continued operating deficits through 2027. The stock's speculative surge from 60 to 154 dollars creates an acute valuation disconnect that must digest as regulatory filings and manufacturing scaling unfold.
- Trailing twelve-month sales of 2.23 billion dollars against a 61 billion dollar market capitalizationmarket capitalizationThe market value of an asset or company, commonly calculated for a company as share price multiplied by shares outstanding.View full glossary entry imply unsustainable 27x multiples.
- Net cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry exceeding 1.2 billion dollars annually delays meaningful free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. generation until fiscal year 2028.
- Intismeran commercialization starting late 2027 supports a long-term enterprise valuation of approximately 45 billion dollars by 2029.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 428 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-22 | 441 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-04 | 326 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-08 | 305 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-28 | 348 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-01 | 337 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-13 | 232 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-29 | 369 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-11 | 262 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-19 | 283 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 220 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-12 | 223 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-24 | 157 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-09 | 164 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-21 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-05 | 133 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-21 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-29 | 181 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-06 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-04 | 155 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-08 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-12 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-28 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-13 | 117 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-25 | 145 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-29 | 143 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-11 | 175 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-27 | 158 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-04 | 194 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 168 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-05 | 132 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-09 | 142 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-29 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-07 | 119 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-15 | 136 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-27 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 185 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-02 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-10 | 173 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-14 | 209 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-03 | 179 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-07 | 182 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-23 | 197 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-31 | 176 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-20 | 162 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-28 | 139 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-16 | 152 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-28 | 147 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-09 | 160 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 161 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-03 | 130 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-19 | 126 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-23 | 138 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-04 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-12 | 124 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-06 | 118 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-10 | 123 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-22 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-15 | 96.4 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-23 | 115 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-16 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-24 | 98.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-10 | 104 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-18 | 86.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-22 | 79.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-11 | 70.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-15 | 76.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-01 | 79.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-13 | 78.6 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-29 | 99.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-06 | 113 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-18 | 99.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-30 | 102 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-11 | 88.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 87.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-10 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-26 | 107 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-03 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-19 | 101 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-27 | 109 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 111 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-25 | 163 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-14 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-22 | 135 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-08 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-16 | 125 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-01 | 94.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-17 | 87.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-25 | 81.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-10 | 79.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-14 | 68.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-30 | 66.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 58.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-16 | 57.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-24 | 52.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-09 | 45.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-21 | 38.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-07 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 39.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-08 | 43.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 33.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-28 | 44.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-21 | 35.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-01 | 30.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-09 | 35.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-29 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-02 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-10 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-30 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-08 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-28 | 26.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 28.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-17 | 25.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-03 | 30.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-07 | 29.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-23 | 34.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-31 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-12 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-24 | 25.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-13 | 23.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-25 | 24.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-03 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-15 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-23 | 26.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-12 | 26.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 22.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-02 | 24.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-18 | 30.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-30 | 30.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-07 | 35.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-15 | 39.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-23 | 48.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-12 | 40.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-28 | 53.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-04 | 57.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-24 | 51.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-05 | 48.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-17 | 53.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 54.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-29 | 45.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-19 | 45.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 51.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-08 | 47.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-28 | 68.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-06 | 81.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-22 | 58.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-26 | 55.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-15 | 63.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-19 | 174 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-08 | 140 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-15 | 144 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 173 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 154 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 136 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 125 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 118 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 126 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 143 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 150 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 162 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 174 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 193 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 199 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 216 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 229 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 248 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 258 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 284 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 298 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 319 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 328 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 348 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 362 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
What activates the bull scenario? Accelerated FDA priority review of intismeran autogene in early 2027, accompanied by stellar overall survival data and an expanded label, sets off explosive commercial adoption. Vein-to-vein turnaround drops below four weeks while respiratory combination sales surpass expectations, driving corporate free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry positive by early 2027. Consequently, investors re-rate Moderna as a high-margin oncology software platform, propelling the equity valuation beyond eighty billion dollars.
Bear case
What triggers the bear collapse? Severe regulatory pushback, manufacturing contamination events, or disappointing overall survival curves for intismeran destroy confidence in personalized mRNA scalability. Meanwhile, intensifying respiratory competition from GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer erodes seasonal vaccine revenues, forcing unexpected dilutive equitydilutive equityIssuance of new shares that reduces the ownership percentage and earnings per share for existing shareholders.View full glossary entry financing as the cash runway shrinks before 2028. As speculative momentum unwinds and discount rates remain punitive, shares compress back toward book valuebook valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities.View full glossary entry, inflicting a severe fifty percent valuation drawdown.
Current crowd narrative
Why is the crowd paying 27 times trailing sales for an unprofitable biotech? Market consensus has anchored on the historic August 2026 Phase 3 melanoma readout, viewing intismeran autogene as an unassailable commercial monopoly that instantly solves post-COVID revenue decline. Investors assume friction-free manufacturing scaling and immediate multi-billion-dollar oncology revenues, largely ignoring multi-year cash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability. and 2028 breakeven execution hurdles.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd severely overestimates the near-term cash-flow velocity of Moderna's oncology pipelineoncology pipelineOncology pipeline refers to the portfolio of cancer-related drug candidates, programs, or studies progressing through research and development stages.View full glossary entry, implying substantial medium-term share overpricing at 154 dollars. While the INTerpath-001 melanoma data is a genuine scientific triumph, market participants conflate clinical validation with immediate commercial monetization. The blind spot is operational friction: bespoke mRNA synthesis requires patient-specific sequencing, custom synthesis, and strict six-week turnaround logistics. Factoring in profit-sharing with Merck, extensive clinical burn through 2027, and persistent respiratory headwinds reveals that fundamental operating profitability remains distant.
Convergence catalyst
What forces market consensus to confront operational reality? The decisive catalyst will be the late 2026 and early 2027 earnings releases and BLA filing timeline disclosures. As management outlines realistic commercial launch guidance, capital expenditurecapital expenditureCapital expenditure (CAPEX) is spending on long-lived assets or major improvements expected to support operations over multiple periods.View full glossary entry for personalized manufacturing suites, and continued multi-billion-dollar operating losses, valuation multiples will re-anchor to realistic cash-flow trajectories.
Complete advisor preview locked
Unlock this report and every AI Advisor
Sign in to check your access, or upgrade to the Base plan to read this report and open every advisor.