AI Consensus Investment Thesis
MRNA: Moderna Stock Price, Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year and 5 Year Targets
Moderna: 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook and Rating
Moderna (MRNA) has an immediate Strong Sell consensus AI recommendation, based on 14 AI analysts.
The 1-year target is $118 for , with -51.26% expected return (-51.26% including net dividends) and a SELL ALL rating.
The 5-year target is $162 for , with -33.08% expected return (-33.08% including net dividends) and a PARTIAL SELL rating.
Latest available market price: USD 242, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
Targets retain their original publication dates. Returns use the dated market close and the time remaining to each fixed target date. Current ratings also require fresh quotes and analysis, with more than 90 days remaining. Past targets have no forward return. Eligibility checked .
Moderna Flagship Insight
Cancer Vaccine Euphoria Meets Stark Manufacturing Realities and Multi-Billion Cash Burn
High consensus confirms that landmark melanoma trial results validate messenger RNA in oncology, but sharp divergence surrounds commercial monetization speed. Persistent operating cash burn, bespoke manufacturing bottlenecks, 50% partnership profit sharing, and elevated discount rates indicate substantial intermediate equity valuation headwinds before sustainable profitability.
How were the Investment Thesis and Forecasts created?
14 AI advisors, guided by 9 analytical frameworks, contribute to the deep analysis by iPulse AI Engine.
J.P. Morgan (Titan)
Universal Investor (Polymath)
Warren Buffett (Value Purist)
Machiavelli (Insider)
Michael Burry (Vulture)
Elon Musk (Visionary)
Superintelligence (Anthropologist)
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower)
Ray Dalio (Strategist)
Ran across these frontier AI models
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
Latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Moderna: forecast questions
What is Moderna (MRNA)'s 1-year price forecast?
Moderna's 1-year target is $118 for Sept 2027. The current AI rating is SELL ALL. The expected return from the recorded close is -51.26%, or -51.26% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 242, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is Moderna (MRNA)'s 5-year price forecast?
Moderna's 5-year target is $162 for Sept 2031. The current AI rating is PARTIAL SELL. The expected return from the recorded close is -33.08%, or -33.08% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 242, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is the return basis?
Latest available market price: USD 242, as of 20 Oct 2026. These are model projections, not guaranteed future prices.
How can I compare the AI opinions and audit past Moderna forecasts?
14 AI analysts contribute to this publication. AI Opinions shows individual advisor forecasts and reasoning. Forecast History preserves earlier published batches; their figures describe their original publication, not today's outlook.
How does an AI-generated forecast for Moderna differ from Wall Street analyst consensus?
Wall Street consensus aggregates estimates from human analysts. For listed companies, these typically include brokerage price targets, earnings forecasts and ratings. iPulse AI's forecast for Moderna is a separate AI consensus generated through its own research workflow. Different inputs, forecast dates, assumptions and weighting can therefore produce different targets.
We believe the era of investment research conducted only by human analysts is drawing to a close. Frontier models increasingly match or exceed expert work on selected professional benchmarks, including evaluations covering financial analysis. Research on multi-model synthesis also shows that combining model responses can improve on a single model's output in the tasks studied.
iPulse AI generates transparent investment research and market forecasts using a swarm of AI configurations, analytical frameworks and frontier models. The workflow applies multiple verification, challenge and synthesis layers, with selective editorial review under Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief. Published assumptions, disagreements and past forecasts remain available so readers can inspect the reasoning and audit outcomes.
For a research cycle covering 426 assets with 14 perspectives per asset, our internal workload model estimates approximately 114,000 hours of traditional analyst work. It assumes 16 hours per individual research report, 28 hours per consensus for synthesis and validation, plus shared data preparation. Parallel AI execution allows a deep-analysis cycle across hundreds of assets to complete in up to one day. The human-hours figure is an illustrative workload estimate, rather than measured time savings. Our research methodology explains the automated workflow.
Moderna: Investment Thesis Summary
Dotted terms link to the glossary; hover or focus for a preview. Browse technical terms
If you invest $10,000 in Moderna at the latest market close (20 Oct 2026): $6,692 by Sept 2031 versus $13,751 for S&P 500 benchmark.
Returns use the same dated market close, fixed targets and remaining dividend period as the forecast table.
Moderna presents a classic valuation disconnect where long-term biological validation outruns near-term shareholder economics. The positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma data confirms messenger RNA's therapeutic utility beyond prophylactic vaccines. However, trading at 27.4 times trailing revenue with an annual operating deficit exceeding $3.3 billion, the market prices immediate commercial blockbuster economics while disregarding operational realities. Between clinical validation and projected 2028 operational breakeven lies a multi-year scaling transition constrained by bespoke manufacturing turnaround, a 50% profit-sharing commitment with Merck, and ongoing respiratory demand erosion. In a restrictive monetary regime with 5% risk-free hurdle rates, pre-profit biotechnology assets face severe duration penalties.
Key insights
- Bespoke neoantigen synthesis requires patient-specific sequencing, custom formulation, and strict cold-chain logistics, structurally capping gross margins far below pandemic-era windfall benchmarks.
- Equal profit sharing with commercialization partner Merck halves attributable oncology cash generation, meaning headline peak product sales translate into modest per-share owner earnings.
- Capital preservation via recent zero-coupon convertible issuance extends operating runway into 2028, but converts establish eventual dilution ceilings that limit long-term per-share upside.
Moderna: 5 Year Consensus Forecast
20 quarterly price targets, returns and rationale, with advisor range and benchmark
Forward returns are updated using the latest market close price of USD 242, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
The consensus target follows an expert-weighted price path synthesized from 14 AI advisor opinions. See Opinion weights and rationale for the exact allocation and reasoning.
Forecast methodology and reference values
Published targets are anchored on 18 Sept 2026 at USD 154. Original quarter-to-quarter target changes are retained. Forward returns use the remaining time to each fixed target date.
The pessimistic and optimistic advisor base cases are the lowest and highest published advisor base-case targets for each quarter. The advisor at either extreme can change between quarters. Benchmark values are in USD.
Scroll the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Evidence-Weighted Consensus Price Path | Individual Advisor Range & Reference Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus target (USD) | Forecast quarter-to-quarter price change | Forward price return | Forward return incl. net dividends | Forecast rationale | Pessimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | Optimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | |
| $138 | -10.11% | -42.99% | -42.99% | Speculative euphoria cools as autumn vaccination volumes confirm sluggish endemic booster uptake. Markets confront ongoing multi-hundred-million-dollar operating deficits, driving institutional profit-taking and multiple compression under elevated interest rate conditions. | $136 | $145 | $750 | |
| $126 | -8.92% | -47.95% | -47.95% | Full-year financial disclosures confirm multi-billion-dollar net losses and cash burn. High Treasury yields penalize long-duration clinical assets, prompting capital rotation away from pre-profit biopharma toward dependable healthcare earnings. | $122 | $138 | $736 | |
| $123 | -2.09% | -49.19% | -49.19% | Regulatory submission preparations and medical congress abstracts restore speculative interest. Presentation of detailed trial data prompts a tactical relief rally, temporarily counterbalancing structural deficits and ongoing manufacturing buildout expenses. | $105 | $138 | $743 | |
| $118 | -4.69% | -51.26% | -51.26% | Scrutiny of bespoke manufacturing protocols and reimbursement timelines dampens optimism. Off-season respiratory revenue troughs and persistent cost-of-capital pressures resume intermediate valuation multiple compression across institutional portfolios. | $93.4 | $133 | $755 | |
| $117 | -0.61% | -51.67% | -51.67% | Initial regulatory filing acceptances clarify commercial timelines but reveal steep launch infrastructure outlays. Operating expense reductions take hold, yet cash burn remains elevated, keeping equity multiples anchored to fundamental revenue reality. | $79.4 | $143 | $776 | |
| $117 | +0.08% | -51.67% | -51.67% | Anticipation of regulatory decisions on personalized oncology therapy drives speculative positioning. Demonstrable operating expense discipline visibly narrows quarterly losses, fostering cautious optimism ahead of critical commercial launch verdicts. | $69.8 | $150 | $787 | |
| $120 | +2.85% | -50.43% | -50.43% | Regulatory approval of intismeran autogene in adjuvant melanoma triggers institutional accumulation and milestone inflows. Attention swiftly pivots to complex biopsy-to-infusion logistics, limiting runaway speculative expansion to deliverable launch economics. | $75.4 | $162 | $803 | |
| $119 | -1.10% | -50.84% | -50.84% | Early commercial rollout reveals logistical friction and gradual hospital onboarding. Bespoke patient synthesis costs constrain initial gross margins, tempering euphoric sales projections and triggering mild valuation consolidation. | $63.4 | $174 | $812 | |
| $121 | +1.30% | -50.02% | -50.02% | Winter respiratory revenue rebounds alongside combination vaccine uptake, while oncology shipments expand. Narrowing operational deficits confirm progress toward cash breakeven, sparking an operational relief rally into year-end. | $52.0 | $193 | $839 | |
| $120 | -0.37% | -50.43% | -50.43% | Post-winter seasonal revenue moderation and ongoing clinical development expenses induce minor consolidation. Investors focus on unit cost-of-goods trends and payer reimbursement verification across major regional cancer networks. | $47.8 | $199 | $851 | |
| $126 | +4.62% | -47.95% | -47.95% | Manufacturing yield enhancements and automated synthesis workflows compress patient turnaround times. European regulatory clearances broaden the commercial addressable market, reinforcing institutional confidence in long-term earnings durability. | $49.7 | $216 | $872 | |
| $129 | +2.97% | -46.71% | -46.71% | Pivotal clinical progress in secondary solid tumor indications expands addressable oncology populations. Commercial revenue steadily absorbs fixed research overhead, supporting modest multiple expansion on verified pipeline diversification. | $52.2 | $229 | $886 | |
| $135 | +4.11% | -44.23% | -44.23% | Dual-engine revenue contribution from oncology royalties and mature respiratory franchises pushes quarterly operations near cash breakeven. Attaining this operational turnaround milestone eliminates dilutive financing fears, lifting institutional sentiment. | $55.3 | $248 | $910 | |
| $137 | +1.87% | -43.41% | -43.41% | Normal seasonal post-holiday volume decline prompts slight valuation digestion. Valuation remains supported as the business model successfully transitions from a volatile pandemic play to an established commercial specialty oncology producer. | $59.2 | $258 | $916 | |
| $143 | +3.86% | -40.93% | -40.93% | Commercial label expansions and international reimbursement agreements drive steady oncology patient volume growth. Expanding manufacturing scale improves gross margins, supporting sustained positive operational cash flow generation. | $61.6 | $284 | $937 | |
| $146 | +2.12% | -39.69% | -39.69% | Global sovereign biodefense contracts and routine advance purchase orders establish an insulated commercial revenue floor. Positive operational momentum cushions against broader macroeconomic deceleration and competitive pharmaceutical entrants. | $63.4 | $298 | $947 | |
| $151 | +3.51% | -37.62% | -37.62% | Record commercial product shipments across seasonal combination vaccines and oncology infusions deliver sustained GAAP profitability. Demonstrable operating leverage prompts analysts to raise multi-year terminal cash flow projections. | $64.7 | $319 | $970 | |
| $153 | +1.53% | -36.80% | -36.80% | Annual financial results confirm full-year operating profitability, completing the corporate turnaround. The equity trades steadily as institutional holders value recurring therapeutic earnings at normalized specialty biopharmaceutical multiples. | $65.3 | $328 | $980 | |
| $158 | +3.13% | -34.73% | -34.73% | Next-generation pipeline assets in rare diseases and multivalent vaccines advance into late-stage trials organically. Self-funded development without external capital dependency reinforces balance sheet resilience and defensible competitive moats. | $67.3 | $348 | $1,000 | |
| $162 | +2.45% | -33.08% | -33.08% | The five-year restructuring window concludes with the business operating as an established, cash-generative biotechnology leader. Valuation multiples find lasting equilibrium, anchored by verifiable cash flows and disciplined capital allocation. | $68.6 | $362 | $1,012 | |
Show remaining 18 quartersShow first 2 quarters only
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Moderna Stock Analysis & Scenarios Deep Dive
Moderna: Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market consensus treats the August 2026 Phase 3 melanoma readout as an unassailable de-risking event that instantly transforms the company into a dominant, high-margin oncology monopoly. Retail buyers and sell-side commentary assume rapid, frictionless regulatory approvals and immediate multi-billion-dollar commercial sales. This optimistic crowd narrative anchors on peak pandemic speed, presuming oncology optionality effortlessly overcomes persistent operating deficits and collapsing respiratory booster demand.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd materially overestimates near-term cash conversion, creating pronounced share overpricing. The analytical edge lies in recognizing that individualized neoantigen therapy is an operationally complex, craft-scale therapeutic requiring multi-week vein-to-vein turnaround, high unit production costs, and an equal profit split with Merck. Furthermore, discounting deferred cash flows at a 5% benchmark rate reveals that current market capitalization already embeds unproven clinical expansions across multiple solid tumors, leaving equity pricing vulnerable to multiple compression.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Granular data disclosures and Biologics License Application filing timelines across 2027 will trigger convergence. When medical congress presentations reveal full overall survival hazard ratios and management discloses commercialization capital expenditures, unit manufacturing costs, and realistic hospital onboarding pacing, expectations will reset. Observable signals will appear when quarterly earnings demonstrate ongoing operational losses despite expense reductions, forcing consensus models to push back self-funded cash breakeven timelines.
Moderna: Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed and Fear Sentiment
- Greed
- Volatility Regime
- High Erratic
- Convergence Cycle Position
- Overshoot
Sentiment exhibits sharp disagreement: momentum participants display extreme greed following positive clinical readouts, whereas fundamental analysts identify an unsustainable speculative overshoot. This positioning tension creates high erratic volatility, requiring multiple quarterly earnings prints to establish fundamental valuation support.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The prevailing macroeconomic regime delivers a direct headwind. Benchmark policy rates near 4.00% and ten-year Treasury yields touching 5.0% establish punitive discount rates for long-duration biotechnology assets with negative free cash flow. Higher hurdle rates compress speculative valuation multiples and raise capital costs, punishing cash-burning enterprises regardless of clinical pipeline promise.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The decisive disagreement centers on the commercial margin structure and cash breakeven velocity of individualized oncology. Optimistic perspectives assume that positive Phase 3 data guarantees rapid regulatory approval, swift automated manufacturing scaling, and operating profitability by 2028. Conversely, conservative forensic views argue that patient-specific neoantigen synthesis imposes rigid cost floors, extended vein-to-vein turnaround times, and equal profit sharing with Merck that defer meaningful free cash flow into the 2030s. The debate will resolve as management discloses detailed manufacturing cost-of-goods and granular INTerpath-001 overall survival hazard ratios during 2027 regulatory filings.
Moderna: Critical Influencing Factors
Near-certain positive forcesTop Drivers & Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individualized neoantigen oncology clinical validation | Innovation And Product | +32% | +52% | Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial data demonstrates statistically significant recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival in resected melanoma. Partnered with Merck, this breakthrough validates messenger RNA therapeutic efficacy outside infectious disease, unlocking multi-billion-dollar oncology market potential. Clinical validation anchors franchise terminal value and diversifies revenue streams away from seasonal respiratory portfolios over the forecast horizon. |
| Merck global oncology commercial partnership | Competitive Positioning | +22% | +36% | The worldwide collaboration with Merck provides indispensable commercial infrastructure, shared clinical development costs, and immediate hospital distribution access alongside Keytruda. Merck's established oncology salesforce eliminates billions in standalone commercialization buildout outlays. This alliance substantially de-risks execution, accelerates clinical adoption across major cancer centers, and secures high-margin commercial milestone cash inflows through 2031. |
| Aggressive research and operating expense rationalization | Operational Efficiency | +17% | +33% | Executive cost-restructuring initiatives have trimmed annual research expenditures from $4.84 billion toward targeted ranges below $3.5 billion by 2027. Terminating non-core exploratory pipelines, streamlining headcount, and focusing capital exclusively on registrational programs stems catastrophic balance sheet attrition. This operational discipline visibly narrows quarterly operating deficits and establishes a credible glidepath toward cash breakeven. |
| Multi-product respiratory commercial portfolio expansion | Competitive Positioning | +14% | +24% | Regulatory clearance of mFLUSIVA and advancement of combination COVID-flu candidates establish a recurring non-monovalent respiratory base. Bundled seasonal immunizations provide convenient clinical administration across aging demographics. While respiratory markets remain competitive, recurring public health tenders provide an essential non-dilutive revenue baseline, absorbing manufacturing overhead and supporting ongoing clinical oncology research through commercialization. |
Near-certain negative forcesTop Frictions & Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excessive valuation multiple speculative overshoot | Capital Allocation | -34% | -12% | Trading at 27.4 times trailing twelve-month revenue while generating multi-billion-dollar operating deficits represents severe market overshoot. The price reflects immediate commercial blockbuster realization, ignoring regulatory lead times and initial commercialization lag. As momentum flows dissipate, multiples must compress toward normalized biotechnology peer averages, exerting substantial intermediate valuation drag. |
| Bespoke personalized manufacturing cost friction | Operational Efficiency | -24% | -34% | Individualized neoantigen therapy relies on patient-specific biopsy sequencing, bespoke synthesis, and complex cold-chain logistics within a tight six-week turnaround. This personalized paradigm generates elevated unit cost of goods sold, capping gross margins far below conventional vaccines. Coupled with Merck's 50% profit split, net cash conversion will lag aggressive sell-side expectations. |
| Structural respiratory vaccine demand erosion | Sector And Industry | -20% | -28% | Widespread public immunization fatigue, diminished mandates, and formidable competition from pharmaceutical incumbents enforce a low ceiling on commercial respiratory revenue. Subdued consumer uptake across monovalent boosters and lagging market share in RSV products compress top-line volume, stranding high-cost manufacturing capacity and depressing return on invested capital across the forecast horizon. |
| Restrictive monetary policy and discount penalties | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -17% | -10% | Policy interest rates near 4.00% and ten-year benchmark Treasury yields hovering around 5.0% establish a punishing discount rate for long-duration biotech assets. Elevated capital costs heavily penalize cash-burning enterprises whose primary earnings inflection is deferred past 2028. Restrictive monetary conditions restrict speculative risk tolerance, compressing long-term discounted cash flow valuations. |
Moderna: What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Event Risk Score: Very High 88/100Asset-level relative pressure from clustered consensus frictions and tail risks. This is not the probability or risk score of an individual force.Plausible downside scenariosTail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intismeran overall survival statistical failure | 32% | -50% | Mature overall survival disclosures from the INTerpath-001 melanoma study in 2027 could fail to demonstrate statistically significant lifespans separation despite initial recurrence-free gains. Regulators would impose restrictive label indications and payers would resist premium reimbursement pricing. This clinical shortfall would annihilate the primary growth pillar supporting the company's valuation, triggering catastrophic institutional derating. Strong Phase 2 survival hazard ratios keep trial failure probability below fifty percent. |
| Adverse federal vaccine schedule restriction | 26% | -38% | Federal health overseers could alter immunization schedules by early 2027, removing messenger RNA COVID-19 or combination formulations from routine public recommendation guidelines. Such regulatory action would sever automatic insurance reimbursement mandates and severely crush domestic seasonal demand. Resulting top-line destruction would widen quarterly cash burn, rapidly depleting balance sheet liquidity and forcing distressed financing. Ongoing litigation and commercial appeal keep this disruptive political event below fifty percent. |
Plausible upside scenariosTail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accelerated multi-tumor oncology clinical victory | 32% | +58% | Phase 3 INTerpath-002 trials in resected non-small cell lung cancer could report statistically significant disease-free survival benefits ahead of schedule by late 2028. Unlocking large-market lung cancer indications expands the addressable patient population fivefold, prompting immediate regulatory priority reviews and triggering over $1.5 billion in commercial milestone payments from Merck. Biological heterogeneity and complex tumor microenvironments keep realization probability strictly below fifty percent. |
| Automated microfluidic synthesis cost breakthrough | 24% | +42% | Engineering breakthroughs in automated desktop microfluidics and synthetic molecular biology could slash individualized therapy turnaround times from six weeks to ten days by 2029. Reducing bespoke production costs by 70% transforms personalized therapeutics from an artisanal hospital procedure into a scalable, high-margin commercial reality, expanding operating margins by over 1,500 basis points. Rigorous good manufacturing compliance requirements keep probability in the tail range. |
Company Financial AnalysisModerna: Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included. View latest Moderna financials here.
Earnings and financials
Moderna's income statement reflects the severe reality of a post-pandemic financial transition. Following historic peaks, fiscal 2025 revenue fell 39.2% to $1.94 billion, producing a net loss of $2.82 billion. Through the second quarter of 2026, trailing twelve-month revenue stabilized near $2.23 billion, but operating losses remained staggering at $3.32 billion. This persistent deficit demonstrates that headline commercial approvals cannot instantly replace lost pandemic revenues. While management has trimmed research spending to slow the cash bleed, commercial receipts from seasonal vaccines remain insufficient to cover ongoing late-stage clinical trials. Until cancer therapies reach the market, the enterprise remains heavily reliant on pre-existing liquidity reserves to fund operations.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 1.9B | USD -2.8B | USD -2.1B |
| 2024 | USD 3.2B | USD -3.6B | USD -4.1B |
| 2023 | USD 6.8B | USD -4.7B | USD -3.8B |
| 2022 | USD 18.9B | USD 8.4B | USD 4.6B |
| 2021 | USD 17.7B | USD 12.2B | USD 13.3B |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2022 | 8.7x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
| 2021 | 9.0x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
Profitability metrics illustrate extreme negative operating leverage following the loss of pandemic scale. Gross margin stabilized near 55.3% in fiscal 2025 as inventory write-offs ceased, yet operating margins remained deeply underwater at negative 158%. Fixed research and clinical infrastructure costs heavily outweigh reduced commercial vaccine receipts. This margin gap proves that manufacturing economics differ drastically between mass vaccines and customized therapeutics. Personalized cancer treatments require individual tumor sequencing and custom synthesis, creating substantial unit costs. Operating margins cannot sustainably inflect until high-margin oncology products reach commercial scale and absorb fixed corporate overhead.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD -3.1B | -158.1% | -145.2% |
| 2024 | USD -3.9B | -123.3% | -111.3% |
| 2023 | USD -4.2B | -61.9% | -68.8% |
| 2022 | USD 9.4B | 49.9% | 44.3% |
| 2021 | USD 13.3B | 75.0% | 68.8% |
Balance sheet and leverage
Moderna's balance sheet retains optical short-term liquidity while enduring steady underlying erosion. Stockholders' equity contracted from $19.12 billion in 2022 to $8.65 billion in 2025 under persistent operating deficits. Total cash and investments stood near $6.9 billion in mid-2026 before being augmented by a $2.6 billion zero-coupon convertible notes offering. While this financing extends the cash runway into 2028 without immediate dilution, it introduces long-term obligations alongside an existing $1.5 billion credit facility. Headline cash provides short-term safety, but persistent cash burn leaves the company vulnerable if commercial milestones encounter regulatory delays or clinical setbacks.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Reported net cash / (debt) | Debt less (cash + short-term investments), calculated | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 1.9B | USD 5.8B | USD 679M net cash | USD -3.9B | 3.29x |
| 2024 | USD 747M | USD 7B | USD 1.2B net cash | USD -6.3B | 3.67x |
| 2023 | USD 1.2B | USD 8.6B | USD 1.7B net cash | USD -7.4B | 3.42x |
| 2022 | USD 1.2B | USD 9.9B | USD 2B net cash | USD -8.7B | 2.73x |
| 2021 | USD 916M | USD 10.7B | USD 5.9B net cash | USD -9.8B | 1.76x |
Reported net debt retains the source definition, which can deduct cash alone. Cash plus short-term investments is broader liquidity; the separately calculated column subtracts that full amount from total debt for the same fiscal period and currency. Reported net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
Management has shifted from aggressive post-pandemic facility expansion toward strict capital rationing. Capital expenditures dropped from 32.9% of revenue in 2024 to 9.88% in 2025 as major manufacturing facilities were completed. Annual research and development spending fell 31.1% in 2025 to $3.13 billion as non-core exploratory pipelines were discontinued. This disciplined spending pivot preserves vital cash reserves while concentrating investment on pivotal Phase 3 programs. However, tailoring treatments for individual cancer patients will eventually demand specialized automation. While current restraint protects near-term solvency, underinvesting in high-throughput manufacturing could create future bottlenecks when personalized cancer therapies enter broad commercial distribution.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 192M | USD 3.1B |
| 2024 | USD 1.1B | USD 4.5B |
| 2023 | USD 707M | USD 4.8B |
| 2022 | USD 400M | USD 3.3B |
| 2021 | USD 284M | USD 2B |
Behind the synthesisModerna: How Each Individual AI Forecaster Opinion Shapes the Global Consensus
This publication’s recorded synthesis allocated voting influence across 14 advisor opinions. The weights and rationales below are retained from that synthesis.
The synthesized consensus is anchored by a compelling, independently supported empirical pattern: while positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma data validates messenger RNA outside infectious disease, the market's parabolic re-rating to 27.4 times sales severely disconnects from underlying commercial economics. Correlated assumptions across optimistic submissions mistakenly treat clinical validation as immediate commercial cash generation, overlooking bespoke manufacturing logistics, multi-week turnaround times, and equal partnership profit sharing. Conversely, the strongest credible contrarian insight confirms that recent non-dilutive zero-coupon convertible financing eliminates imminent solvency distress, extending runway toward 2028 commercialization. Relative weights heavily reward submissions grounded in primary SEC filings, audited balance sheets, and realistic unit cost-of-goods calculations, while downweighting models that assume either catastrophic liquidity collapse or frictionless, software-like margin expansion. Material unresolved uncertainty persists regarding overall survival durability in oncology and regulatory stability across domestic vaccine schedules, dictating a path characterized by near-term multiple compression followed by measured, execution-driven recovery.
All 14 opinions
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 · 2026-07-24 releaseWeight: 12.0%
Outstanding forensic analysis incorporating recent zero-coupon convertible note mechanics, capped calls, and precise dilution thresholds. It correctly reconciles commercial partnership economics with elevated discount rates, establishing an exceptionally sound risk-adjusted baseline path.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra · 2026-09-03 releaseWeight: 12.0%
Exemplary primary source grounding in SEC filings, Form 10-Q disclosures, and shared partnership terms. It rigorously differentiates headline clinical efficacy from per-share distributable cash flow, offering the most causally consistent path among all submissions.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 10.0%
Thoroughly articulates the temporal lag between headline clinical readouts and commercial cash realization. Its balanced appraisal of combination respiratory portfolio defense versus bespoke production margin compression provides robust, evidence-backed forecasting value.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 8.0%
Strong forensic identification of bespoke manufacturing cost structures, 50% partnership profit splits, and credit facility covenants. It anchors grounded skepticism regarding personalized therapy margins, though its severe near-term debt distress scenario is slightly overstated post-convertible issuance.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 8.0%
Delivers rigorous scrutiny of commercial distribution barriers in seasonal influenza against established pharmaceutical incumbents. While its long-term operating margin normalization is slightly optimistic, its near-term multiple compression thesis is well supported by commercial realities.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Offers valuable geopolitical and institutional analysis regarding international sovereign biosecurity procurement and domestic regulatory friction. Its bull-case recovery relies heavily on smooth commercial oncology execution, somewhat underestimating initial turnaround bottlenecks across cancer centers.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Demonstrates sound macro awareness regarding elevated hurdle rates and discount penalties on long-duration assets. However, its terminal path projects an aggressive valuation recovery that minimizes prolonged competitive pressures across respiratory markets and bespoke production hurdles.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Provides a balanced view of platform modularity alongside realistic appraisal of six-week vein-to-vein turnaround logistics. The long-term return trajectory slightly overstates margin expansion velocity across non-melanoma indications, necessitating a calibrated moderate weight.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.0%
Presents an astute contrast between frictionless digital software scaling and physical manufacturing bottlenecks in bespoke neoantigen synthesis. Its later-stage path relies on rapid technological breakthroughs in automated microfluidics that remain unproven, limiting its weight.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.0%
Provides incisive forensic examination of clinical trial effect reporting, noting the absence of mature overall survival hazard ratios in initial press disclosures. It appropriately models post-euphoria multiple contraction, though its outer-year recovery is somewhat abrupt.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.0%
Correctly identifies multiple mean-reversion risks and balance sheet equity erosion under sustained research expenditure. It somewhat overstates the probability of dilutive equity financing by overlooking the cash runway afforded by recent convertible debt issuance.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.0%
Solid owner-earnings discipline emphasizing negative cash conversion, idle manufacturing charges, and restrictive debt covenants. However, it takes an overly conservative view of pipeline optionality across latent virus and respiratory combinations, limiting its weight.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 4.0%
This report correctly highlights acute owner earnings deficits, ongoing book value depletion, and extreme sales multiple disconnects. However, its excessively punitive liquidation framing underweights validated neoantigen trial success and non-dilutive government partnerships, warranting a modest weighting.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 3.0%
Provides a useful thermodynamic critique of fixed cost structures against crashing endemic vaccine volumes. Nonetheless, it heavily discounts late-stage clinical oncology derisking and assumes extreme competitive displacement, justifying a minimal relative allocation.
References & Context
Research Provenance
Analysis generated by iPulse AI Engine v7 using recorded market data, operating under the editorial standards and supervision of Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief.
External references below are sources recorded by the researcher agents for this Moderna forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher web34 available sources from this batch (141 recorded). The first 15 are shown below; expand to read the rest.
- MFLUSIVA | FDA fda.gov
- 2026 Moderna NPS sec.gov
- 8-K sec.gov
- Form 8-K sec.gov
- Moderna, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 sec.gov
- mrna-20251231 sec.gov
- www.sec.gov sec.gov
- Merck and Moderna Announce Phase 3 INTerpath-001 Trial of Intismeran Autogene Plus KEYTRUDA® Met Endpoints of Recurrence-Free Survival (RFS) and Distant Metastasis-Free Survival (DMFS) in Patients With Completely Resected Stage IIB-IV Melanoma - Merck.com merck.com
- Cancer vaccine win restores Wall Street’s faith in Moderna | BioPharma Dive biopharmadive.com
- Merck and Moderna's Intismeran Autogene Plus Pembrolizumab Meets Endpoints in Phase 3 Melanoma Trial | BioPharm International biopharminternational.com
- Merck’s Moderna-partnered vaccine success clears view of post-Keytruda future - BioSpace biospace.com
- The State of US Vaccine Policy — Feb 19, 2026 | CIDRAP cidrap.umn.edu
- The State of US Vaccine Policy — May 28, 2026 | CIDRAP cidrap.umn.edu
- ACIP: HHS rewrites rules governing key CDC vaccine committee | CNN cnn.com
- CDC vaccine committee drops push to stop recommending mRNA Covid-19 shots, for now | CNN cnn.com
Show 19 more sources
- MRNA Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN edition.cnn.com
- Merck, Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine slows recurrence in phase 3, setting up approval push fiercebiotech.com
- Moderna Shares Rebound After Pullback Following Cancer Vaccine Rally finance.yahoo.com
- SLS, IBRX Stocks In Focus: Analyst Says Moderna-Merck Cancer Vaccine Success ‘Bodes Well’ For Oncology finance.yahoo.com
- StockWatch: Merck/Moderna Cancer Vaccine Gives a Shot in the Arm to Sequencing Companies, Too genengnews.com
- Federal judge halts HHS, ACIP vaccine decisions: What to know | Association of Health Care Journalists healthjournalism.org
- Moderna Stock Price | MRNA Stock - Investing.com investing.com
- Moderna Announces Pricing of Upsized $2.6 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes | INN investingnews.com
- Free Trial marketbeat.com
- MRK 06.30.2026 10Q merck.com
- Pioneering mRNA technology - Moderna modernatx.com
- Moderna and Merck: Intismeran's Positive Phase 3 Readout Confirms mRNA Potential in Oncology | Morningstar morningstar.com
- Moderna Announces Pricing of Upsized $2.6 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes | Morningstar morningstar.com
- Moderna Announces Pricing of Upsized $2.6 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes | Nasdaq nasdaq.com
- Moderna raises $2 billion in convertible notes for cancer vaccine qz.com
- Moderna (MRNA) Stock Price & Overview stockanalysis.com
- Moderna Prices Upsized $2.6B Convertible Notes | MRNA Stock News stocktitan.net
- MRNA Stock Climbs As Oncology Catalysts And Upgrades Pile Up timothysykes.com
- MRNA Stock Rockets As Cancer Breakthrough Redefines The Story timothysykes.com
107 additional sources are recorded in this batch; their citation details are not available in this publication.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
Archived context covering 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31. Its recorded scope includes technology and capital cycle; trade and industrial policy; monetary policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 13.3K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 22.7K tokens
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Archived context covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20. Its recorded scope includes monetary policy and rates; geopolitics energy and shipping; trade and industrial policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 84.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.4K words
- Characters
- 84.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 21.2K tokens
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental Context Passed as Input to the Models
Time range: Annual fiscal periods: 2014-12-31–2025-12-31, 12 periods; Quarterly fiscal periods: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods.
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
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