Historical AI Consensus

This page preserves the research and market snapshot packaged for this batch. It is not updated with later prices or revised advisor outputs.

Symbol: EVO.STO
Batch: 7
Published: September 20, 2026
AI Advisors: 14

Historical AI Consensus Investment Thesis

Evolution AB (publ) (EVO) Stock Forecast and AI Rating

Deep analysis published Sep 20 2026Original pricing snapshot Sep 18 2026

Publisher

Russlan Ramdowar

12 min read

Published 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook

Forecast targets and rating

Published batch rating

BUY

Calculated from the frozen synthesized path using the same return, horizon, volatility and dividend rules as individual opinions.

2027

1-Year

BUY

kr992

+14.5%+16.1% incl. dividends

2031

5-Year

BUY

kr1,639

+89.3%+102.9% incl. dividends

Published batch insight

Digital Gaming Tollbooth Unlocks Relentless Cash Generation Through Cannibalizing Share Buybacks

High consensus confirms the digital gaming champion leverages 65% EBITDA margins, zero debt, and expanding regulated Americas revenue to fund massive share buybacks. However, persistent Asian cyber piracy, European regulatory ring-fencing, and concentrated ownership governance impose structural valuation frictions.

Deep Forecast Analysis by iPulse AI Engine

This analysis preserves the original published batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency

Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Universal Investor (Polymath), Machiavelli (Insider), Michael Burry (Vulture), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Ray Dalio (Strategist), J.P. Morgan (Titan), Elon Musk (Visionary), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower). Some archetypes run in multiple modes, resulting in 14 advisors total.

Computed on these frontier AI models

Gemini

Claude

ChatGPT

Full published thesis

Executive Summary

If you invested $10,000 in Evolution AB (publ) at publication: $22,296 in five years versus $13,892 for S&P 500 benchmark.

Evolution AB (publ) · Synthesized ConsensusS&P 500 benchmark

* Return is calculated incl. 1.4% net dividend yield for Evolution AB (publ).

Figure: Five-year synthesized consensus value path for Evolution AB (publ) compared with S&P 500 benchmark. The path uses the synthesizer’s normalized opinion weights.

20-quarter synthesized forecastPrice targets, quarterly returns and the reasoning behind each stepView table

Frozen forecast from 18 Sept 2026. Prices in SEK; returns exclude dividends. Each quarter is compounded from the previous quarter.

Anchor: 865.8 SEK1-year price return: +14.54%5-year price return: +89.31%

Swipe the table horizontally to read every column.

Twenty quarterly synthesized price forecasts in SEK, with returns and rationale
Quarter / date	Target (SEK)	Quarter return	Total return	Forecast rationale
Q118 Dec 2026	880.43	+1.69%	+1.69%	Settlement of the mandatory takeover offer triggers an exit of short-term event arbitrage capital. Ongoing Asian cyber-defense friction and elevated discount rates temporarily pressure valuation multiples despite active corporate share repurchases.
Q218 Mar 2027	919.96	+4.49%	+6.26%	Full-year 2026 financial reporting confirms pristine cash generation with free cash flow surpassing 1.2 billion euros. Demonstrating resilient 65% EBITDA margins and a shrunken share count sparks steady institutional value accumulation.
Q318 Jun 2027	958.33	+4.17%	+10.69%	Early revenue contributions from newly licensed Brazilian operators scale rapidly, while North American studio expansions gain traction. Annual general meeting authorization of continued equity repurchases reinforces structural per-share earnings accretion.
Q418 Sept 2027	991.68	+3.48%	+14.54%	Independent regulatory compliance audits and stabilizing Asian video distribution networks reduce perceived platform risk. Resilient high-margin live game show demand counteracts typical European summer wagering lulls, supporting modest multiple re-expansion.
Q518 Dec 2027	1,036.60	+4.53%	+19.73%	Winter holiday wagering acceleration drives strong sequential transaction volumes across global operator networks. Continuous mechanical share cancellations compound quarterly earnings per share, driving equity prices higher into the fiscal year-end.
Q618 Mar 2028	1,069.36	+3.16%	+23.51%	Annual 2027 disclosures reveal visible per-share earnings compounding as retired float enhances bottom-line metrics. Latin American revenue momentum offsets legacy European channelisation drag, validating management's geographic diversification strategy.
Q718 Jun 2028	1,104.86	+3.32%	+27.61%	Rollout of next-generation proprietary live game titles and automated table management tools enhances studio throughput. Operator contract renewals across North America secure recurring royalties, maintaining steady upward valuation momentum.
Q818 Sept 2028	1,136.68	+2.88%	+31.29%	Studio footprint decentralization across Latin America and Western Europe absorbs localized labor inflation. Robust cash generation continues to fund open-market buybacks, providing defensive downside support during seasonal trading pauses.
Q918 Dec 2028	1,183.05	+4.08%	+36.64%	Progressive state-level iGaming authorizations in North America expand addressable table volumes. Strong operating leverage and holiday casino engagement drive solid free cash flow generation, lifting equity valuation toward year-end.
Q1018 Mar 2029	1,226.59	+3.68%	+41.67%	Full-year 2028 financial statements demonstrate cumulative float retirement exceeding 12% since 2026. The pristine debt-free balance sheet and durable 58% operating margins compel institutional analysts to raise long-term earnings targets.
Q1118 Jun 2029	1,268.17	+3.39%	+46.47%	Fully scaled Latin American studios achieve peak operational efficiency, while European gaming duty adjustments reach an operational plateau. Ongoing share cancellations steadily elevate per-share owner cash yield, sustaining consistent upward progress.
Q1218 Sept 2029	1,293.92	+2.03%	+49.45%	Minor liquidity and free-float considerations emerge as the controlling shareholder's passive stake creeps higher through corporate share retirements. Solid underlying cash generation limits downside volatility, keeping valuation multiples stable.
Q1318 Dec 2029	1,344.38	+3.90%	+55.28%	Peak winter wagering volumes across live casino and RNG hybrid games generate robust royalties. Reauthorization of capital return programs demonstrates management's enduring commitment to returning surplus liquidity directly to equity owners.
Q1418 Mar 2030	1,390.89	+3.46%	+60.65%	Fiscal 2029 results confirm that regulated jurisdictions now constitute well over half of total net revenues. A permanently compressed regulatory risk discount combines with reduced share count to drive sustainable capital appreciation.
Q1518 Jun 2030	1,421.63	+2.21%	+64.20%	Integration of automated vision technologies across mature broadcasting facilities stabilizes unit production costs. Evolution defends its commanding B2B market share, sustaining healthy take-rates across more than 800 global tier-one operators.
Q1618 Sept 2030	1,459.45	+2.66%	+68.57%	Mid-year macroeconomic consolidation creates slight discretionary consumer softening, but Evolution's unencumbered balance sheet and zero debt insulate corporate earnings, ensuring resilient relative outperformance against broader European equities.
Q1718 Dec 2030	1,507.32	+3.28%	+74.10%	Strong fourth-quarter wagering activity across mobile platforms boosts live table turnover. Continuous buyback-driven float contraction concentrates cash flow into remaining shares, driving solid equity performance into the calendar close.
Q1818 Mar 2031	1,555.55	+3.20%	+79.67%	Full-year 2030 reporting highlights a decade-long track record of exceptional cash conversion and structural profitability. The market awards a normalized institutional valuation multiple befitting an entrenched global digital gaming utility.
Q1918 Jun 2031	1,594.60	+2.51%	+84.18%	Steady-state operations across five continents deliver predictable cash flows with negligible maintenance capital expenditure requirements. Evolution maintains monopolistic tollbooth economics, generating dependable returns through disciplined capital allocation.
Q2018 Sept 2031	1,639.09	+2.79%	+89.31%	Terminal forecast period concludes a successful five-year transformation from cyclical regulatory overhang to regulated compounding. Compounded per-share earnings on a significantly contracted share count establish a permanent, higher intrinsic equity baseline.

The institutional investment case centers on an economic divergence: backward-looking top-line stagnation driven by European ring-fencing and Asian stream scraping masks a pristine, highly generative B2B digital casino monopoly. Operating with an unleveraged balance sheet and 65% EBITDA margins, the business converts over 85% of operating income into free cash flow. While reported top-line expansion moderates to low single digits, management directs surplus liquidity into an unprecedented share repurchase program, retiring approximately 4% to 5% of float annually. This mechanical share cannibalization generates double-digit per-share intrinsic value compounding even without aggressive multiple expansion. Valuation sensitivity remains anchored to compliance overhead, OECD Pillar Two global minimum taxation, and the governance discount of a 33% blockholder. If regulatory actions restrict licensing or cyber syndicates permanently impair Asian aggregators, the multiple faces compression toward 10x earnings.

Key insights

Sustained free cash flow generation of 1.2 billion euros funds systematic share retirements, driving mid-single-digit EPS expansion on flat revenue.
Regulated market expansion across Latin America and North America steadily replaces volatile grey-market Asian revenue, structurally derisking group cash-flow quality.
Blockholder accumulation creates an effective valuation floor but limits contestability, keeping trading multiples anchored below historic growth peaks.

Deep Dive

Prevailing market consensus treats the business as a mature, ex-growth asset ensnared by regulatory attrition, Asian streaming piracy, and studio labor disputes. Sell-side desks and retail participants anchor heavily to 2025's revenue plateau and the March 2026 dividend cancellation, misdiagnosing an intentional capital reallocation into share buybacks as operational distress and capping valuation around 14 times earnings.

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From this section to the end-of-preview notice below, research is provided as simplified HTML text and tables. Full access provides the complete interactive interface, charts and additional datasets.

Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts

Where the published AI consensus diverged from the market narrative

Market narrative

Alpha gap

The crowd underestimates value due to an analytical blind spot: conflating top-line deceleration with structural moat degradation. In reality, the company commands an irreplaceable B2B distribution network with 65% EBITDA margins, zero debt, and an 8% free cash flow yield. By redirecting cash into retiring undervalued equity rather than paying taxable dividends, per-share intrinsic compounding sharply outpaces stagnant reported revenues, creating a substantial underpricing gap.

Repricing catalyst

Consecutive quarterly earnings releases showing positive constant-currency revenue growth in Brazil and North America, combined with visible share count contraction below 180 million shares, serve as the primary catalyst. Independent compliance audit clearance in mid-2027 will confirm distribution integrity, forcing skeptical sell-side analysts to upgrade forward earnings per share and prompting institutional multiple expansion.

Published consensus context

Macro regime alignment

The prevailing regime of higher-for-longer policy rates and persistent inflation represents a mild tailwind. Operating with zero net debt and generating 1.2 billion euros in free cash flow, the company is completely immune to refinancing shocks, while its cash-rich balance sheet earns attractive yields and rising nominal gross gaming turnover cushions operating costs.

Published consensus context

Advisor disagreement

The primary analytical debate centers on terminal valuation multiples and capital allocation timing. Optimistic reports model multiple re-expansion toward 18x to 20x earnings, arguing that rapid Americas growth and studio automation will restore operating leverage. Cautious perspectives counter that an entrenched 33% blockholder, OECD Pillar Two tax drag, and persistent compliance audits impose a permanent ceiling near 14x trailing earnings. This debate will be resolved by monitoring whether organic constant-currency revenue growth re-accelerates above 6% and whether weekly repurchases continue retiring float without depleting liquidity.

Published scenario analysis

Base-case forces, risks, and opportunities

Top drivers and tailwinds

Aggressive share cannibalization via buybacks: Management systematically deploys surplus annual free cash flow exceeding 1.2 billion euros into repurchasing and cancelling outstanding equity. Retiring approximately 4% to 5% of tradeable float annually mechanically compounds per-share intrinsic value, driving structural EPS growth independent of broader macroeconomic and top-line industry headwinds. Expected impact: +28%.
Americas regulated market volume expansion: Secular expansion across regulated Americas jurisdictions, headlined by the commercial ramp-up in Brazil and dedicated live studio buildouts in North America, delivers double-digit regional revenue expansion. This transition shifts group revenue towards highly recurring, legally certified B2B royalty streams, offsetting mature European regulatory drag. Expected impact: +24%.
Live casino network liquidity dominance: Operating over 1,500 live broadcast tables across 24 global studios creates insurmountable scale and liquidity advantages. Integrating directly into over 870 tier-one operators establishes prohibitive switching costs, protecting proprietary live game-show IP, maintaining take-rates, and defending structural EBITDA margins comfortably above 65%. Expected impact: +21%.
Studio automation and operational decentralization: Integrating computer-vision telemetry, automated shufflers, and procedural table mechanics increases player concurrency per square meter while neutralizing localized studio labor inflation. Decentralizing studio production into Latin America and Western Europe enhances operational redundancy and insulates unit economics against localized labor disputes. Expected impact: +16%.

Top frictions and headwinds

Regulatory ring-fencing and compliance overhead: European supervisory authorities continue tightening domestic ring-fencing, player stake limits, and licensing oversight, as evidenced by recent UKGC reviews. Stricter compliance obligations reduce operator turnover, eliminate non-compliant sub-licensees, and incur perpetual monitoring expenditures that cap regional revenue growth and compress valuation multiples. Expected impact: -16%.
Asian cyber disruption and piracy leakage: Sophisticated stream piracy, unauthorized scraping syndicates, and recurring distributed denial-of-service assaults across Asian distribution networks create persistent regional revenue volatility. Countermeasures designed to block unlicensed mirroring inadvertently degrade end-user connectivity, introducing ongoing operational friction and suppressing high-margin unregulated gross gaming contributions. Expected impact: -15%.
Pillar Two global minimum tax drag: Implementation of OECD Pillar Two global minimum corporate taxation eliminates historical low-tax optimization structures, establishing an inescapable 15% effective tax floor. This statutory fiscal shift extracts approximately 100 million euros annually from net profits, creating a mathematical drag on ROE and net margin conversion. Expected impact: -11%.
Studio personnel inflation and union friction: Live casino operations require staffing thousands of multilingual presenters across physical facilities, leaving the cost structure exposed to localized wage inflation and collective bargaining agitation, as seen in Georgia. Rising personnel expenditures increase baseline studio overhead, preventing operating margins from regaining historical peaks above 68%. Expected impact: -10%.

Tail risks

Cross-border regulatory supplier licensing sanctions: Coordinated regulatory action by Western authorities could penalize B2B software suppliers whose feeds are accessible on unlicensed offshore mirror networks. A formal license suspension or severe sanction in tier-one jurisdictions like New Jersey or the UK would force contract terminations, eliminating over 25% of group net profit and triggering severe multiple collapse. Probability: +24%. Expected impact: -40%.
Prolonged Asian distribution network interdiction: A synchronized, state-sponsored cyber offensive or strict sovereign banking interdiction across East Asia could permanently paralyze B2B streaming gateways and aggregator payment rails. Severing Asian operations would amputate nearly 35% of group revenue overnight, collapsing operating cash flows, ending share buybacks, and precipitating an acute structural equity de-rating. Probability: +22%. Expected impact: -32%.

Tail opportunities

Sweeping US multi-state iGaming legalisation: A sudden fiscal squeeze among major US states could trigger legislative breakthroughs legalizing commercial online casino gaming in populous markets like New York, Illinois, or California by 2028. Leveraging established turnkey studio infrastructure, the company would capture immediate 70% live dealer market share, unlocking over 300 million euros in high-margin earnings. Probability: +28%. Expected impact: +38%.
Consortium buyout or sweetened take-private: With Candle Lake controlling approximately 33.8% and the business generating over 1.2 billion euros in debt-free cash flow, an activist consortium or strategic sponsor could launch a formal premium take-private proposal around late 2027. Backed by private credit, a negotiated buyout would deliver an immediate equity premium, bypassing public-market multiple suppression. Probability: +25%. Expected impact: +32%.

What to monitor

Thesis watchpoints

-- Quarterly constant-currency revenue growth in the Americas sustaining above 15% through mid-2027, confirming successful geographic diversification.

Key insights

Group EBITDA margin compressing below 63% across two consecutive quarters, signaling irrecoverable studio wage inflation or pricing erosion.
Independent compliance audit failure or fresh license suspensions by Western gaming commissions within the next twelve months.

Company Financial Analysis

Evolution AB (publ) Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI

Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included.

Earnings and financials

AI Review

The company's headline revenue plateau conceals an underlying story of strong cash resilience. While reported net sales fell 4.3% in 2025 to 2.12 billion euros due to European regulatory tightening and Asian cyber disruptions, the top line stabilized in the first half of 2026 at over 1.03 billion euros. Constant-currency demand remained positive, proving that currency translation and accounting comparisons, rather than broken customer relationships, drove the apparent contraction. More importantly, operating income of 1.26 billion euros converted into an astonishing 1.21 billion euros in free cash flow, representing an 86% conversion rate. This extraordinary cash-flow performance shows that while top-line growth has downshifted into single digits, the cash-generation tollbooth remains completely intact, fully funding extensive capital returns to equity owners.

Revenue, earnings, and cash flow

The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.

Revenue, net income, and free cash flow history
Fiscal year	Revenue	Net income	Free cash flow
2025	EUR 2.1B	EUR 1.1B	EUR 1.2B
2024	EUR 2.2B	EUR 1.2B	EUR 1.2B
2023	EUR 1.8B	EUR 1B	EUR 1B
2022	EUR 1.5B	EUR 843.4M	EUR 780.5M
2021	EUR 1.1B	EUR 605.4M	EUR 537.3M

Valuation context: historical P/E

The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.

Historical price-to-earnings ratios
Fiscal year	P/E	Earnings basis	Currency basis	Ticker / reporting
2025	14.3x	TTM	USD-normalized	SEK / --
2024	11.9x	TTM	USD-normalized	SEK / EUR
2023	22.2x	TTM	USD-normalized	SEK / EUR
2022	23.4x	Annual	USD-normalized	SEK / EUR
2021	45.9x	Annual	USD-normalized	SEK / EUR

P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.

Profitability and margins

AI Review

Profitability remains world-class, with adjusted EBITDA margins holding firm at 65.9% in mid-2026 and net profit margins hovering near 50%. While operating margins moderated slightly from historical 64% peaks due to studio wage adjustments in Georgia, higher compliance overhead, and the initial phase-in of the 15% global minimum tax, structural profitability remains virtually peerless across the global technology sector. This margin defense proves that the company commands immense B2B pricing power and high customer switching costs across more than 870 integrated casino operators. As higher-margin regulated tables in the Americas scale, scale efficiencies will easily offset localized wage increases, keeping operating margins solidly anchored above 60% over the multi-year horizon.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.

Operating income and margin history
Fiscal year	Operating income	Operating margin	Net margin
2025	EUR 1.3B	59.4%	50.1%
2024	EUR 1.4B	64.1%	56.2%
2023	EUR 1.1B	63.5%	56.2%
2022	EUR 908.1M	62.3%	57.9%
2021	EUR 654M	61.2%	56.6%

Balance sheet and leverage

AI Review

The balance sheet is an impregnable financial fortress designed to withstand significant regulatory and macroeconomic shocks. Total equity stood at 4.2 billion euros in mid-2026 against negligible gross debt, yielding an ultra-conservative debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.04. Supported by over 1.15 billion euros in liquid cash reserves and a 300 million euro undrawn credit facility, solvency concerns are non-existent. This absence of funded borrowings completely insulates the company from high global interest rates and credit market contractions. Management faces no refinancing pressures or restrictive bank covenants, granting total strategic autonomy to fund massive share repurchases and regional studio expansions entirely out of operational cash without jeopardizing financial stability.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.

Balance sheet leverage and liquidity history
Fiscal year	Total debt	Cash + short-term investments	Net cash / (debt)	Current ratio
2025	EUR 163.3M	EUR 815.1M	EUR 651.8M net cash	1.66x
2024	EUR 93.7M	EUR 787.1M	EUR 693.4M net cash	1.82x
2023	EUR 79.5M	EUR 985.8M	EUR 985.8M net cash	3.07x
2022	EUR 79.6M	EUR 532.6M	EUR 453M net cash	2.60x
2021	EUR 67.8M	EUR 404.8M	EUR 337M net cash	2.19x

Net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.

Capex and investment intensity

AI Review

Management maintains extreme capital discipline, operating an asset-light live broadcasting model that requires very little ongoing physical investment. Capital expenditures absorbed just 3.1% of revenue in 2025, down from 6.2% in 2024, before settling at approximately 35 million euros in the second quarter of 2026. Spending focuses strictly on scalable camera hardware, streaming encoding, and localized studio fit-outs in emerging markets like Brazil and Michigan. By intentionally avoiding dilutive acquisitions and speculative greenfield real-estate investments, management releases tremendous surplus cash flow. Incremental software table capacity carries virtually zero marginal distribution cost, generating massive return on invested capital and liberating more than 95% of operating earnings directly for aggressive share repurchase programs.

The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.

Capital expenditure and research and development history
Fiscal year	Capital expenditure	R&D spend
2025	EUR 65.8M	--
2024	EUR 136.7M	--
2023	EUR 91.8M	--
2022	EUR 96.9M	--
2021	EUR 61.6M	--

Immutable published data

Averaged consensus horizons

The table preserves this publication's original rating, return, and advisor-agreement measurements by forecast horizon.

Horizon	Rating	Score incl. dividends	Compounded return incl. dividends	Direction agreement	Snapshot
1Y	BUY	226	+18.2%	Not available	ORIGINAL
5Y	BUY	212	+110%	Not available	ORIGINAL

Averaged consensus scenarios

The table outlines the frozen bear, consensus, and bull price scenarios for each published forecast period.

Period	Date	Bear case	Consensus	Bull case	AI Advisors
+3M	December 18, 2026	805.19	891.77	917.75	14
+6M	March 18, 2027	829.35	933.36	981.99	14
+9M	June 18, 2027	854.23	975.06	1,031.09	14
+1Y	September 18, 2027	871.31	1,008.65	1,092.96	14
+15M	December 18, 2027	906.17	1,053.99	1,136.67	14
+18M	March 18, 2028	878.98	1,095.06	1,204.87	14
+21M	June 18, 2028	914.14	1,135.62	1,265.12	14
+2Y	September 18, 2028	941.57	1,166.54	1,315.72	14
+27M	December 18, 2028	969.81	1,214.19	1,381.51	14
+30M	March 18, 2029	989.21	1,261.83	1,450.58	14
+33M	June 18, 2029	1,018.89	1,306.55	1,508.61	14
+3Y	September 18, 2029	998.51	1,336.84	1,584.04	14
+39M	December 18, 2029	1,038.45	1,388.31	1,647.4	14
+42M	March 18, 2030	1,069.6	1,437.78	1,729.77	14
+45M	June 18, 2030	1,090.99	1,474.88	1,781.66	14
+4Y	September 18, 2030	1,123.72	1,511.13	1,852.93	14
+51M	December 18, 2030	1,146.2	1,561.1	1,927.05	14
+54M	March 18, 2031	1,180.58	1,611.15	2,004.13	14
+57M	June 18, 2031	1,204.2	1,651.91	2,064.25	14
+5Y	September 18, 2031	1,228.28	1,696.97	2,126.18	14

Frozen comparison context

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust forecast context

The benchmark definition and forecast path are frozen with this publication so future benchmark changes do not rewrite the historical comparison.

Benchmark snapshot: 761.69 on September 18, 2026

Period	Date	Bear case	Consensus	Bull case
+3M	December 18, 2026	723.6055	750.2647	769.3069
+6M	March 18, 2027	701.8973	736.44	784.693
+9M	June 18, 2027	695.1	743.3975	808.2338
+1Y	September 18, 2027	681.198	755.1476	816.3162
+15M	December 18, 2027	688.01	776.2182	840.8057
+18M	March 18, 2028	701.7702	787.1259	857.6218
+21M	June 18, 2028	722.8233	802.8344	883.3504
+2Y	September 18, 2028	730.0515	812.0465	892.1839
+27M	December 18, 2028	751.9531	839.1839	927.8713
+30M	March 18, 2029	766.9921	850.5008	946.4287
+33M	June 18, 2029	782.332	872.3935	965.3573
+3Y	September 18, 2029	790.1553	885.5111	975.0109
+39M	December 18, 2029	805.9584	909.5618	1,004.2612
+42M	March 18, 2030	822.0776	916.132	1,024.3464
+45M	June 18, 2030	830.2984	936.5109	1,055.0768
+4Y	September 18, 2030	830.2984	947.3438	1,065.6276
+51M	December 18, 2030	855.2073	969.5876	1,097.5964
+54M	March 18, 2031	872.3114	979.9863	1,119.5483
+57M	June 18, 2031	889.7577	999.6043	1,141.9393
+5Y	September 18, 2031	898.6553	1,011.7644	1,153.3587

Frozen comparison context

USDSEK.FOREX forecast context

The batch's original inverse_usd_to_listing path is preserved for transparent interpretation of USD-normalized returns.

FX snapshot: 9.82 on September 18, 2026

Period	Date	Bear case	Consensus	Bull case
+3M	December 18, 2026	9.9182	9.9673	10.1146
+6M	March 18, 2027	9.819	10.0316	10.2167
+9M	June 18, 2027	9.6226	9.9101	10.2177
+1Y	September 18, 2027	9.5254	9.7833	10.2177
+15M	December 18, 2027	9.3349	9.6648	10.1156
+18M	March 18, 2028	9.2416	9.5402	10.0144
+21M	June 18, 2028	9.0568	9.4316	9.9143
+2Y	September 18, 2028	8.9662	9.3377	9.8151
+27M	December 18, 2028	8.8765	9.312	9.9103
+30M	March 18, 2029	8.8765	9.2514	9.8112
+33M	June 18, 2029	8.7887	9.1851	9.7131
+3Y	September 18, 2029	8.7008	9.146	9.8102
+39M	December 18, 2029	8.6138	9.1078	9.9083
+42M	March 18, 2030	8.5276	9.0688	9.8092
+45M	June 18, 2030	8.5276	9.0427	9.7111
+4Y	September 18, 2030	8.4423	8.9979	9.7111
+51M	December 18, 2030	8.4423	8.9729	9.8082
+54M	March 18, 2031	8.4423	8.9711	9.7102
+57M	June 18, 2031	8.5259	8.9382	9.6131
+5Y	September 18, 2031	8.5259	8.9383	9.6131

Behind the synthesis

How each opinion shapes the consensus

14 opinions · 100% allocated

The consensus evidence establishes an independently corroborated operational reality: top-line revenue has transitioned from hyper-growth to mid-single-digit expansion, driven by European regulatory ring-fencing, Asian cyber piracy, and Georgian studio labor adjustments. This deceleration is counterbalanced by formidable free cash flow generation exceeding 1.2 billion euros, zero net debt, and an aggressive share repurchase program systematically retiring 4% to 5% of float annually. The strongest credible contrarian insight, heavily weighted in the polymathic reports, demonstrates that near-term takeover speculation from Candle Lake's mandatory offer must deflate before long-term buyback compounding can drive equity returns. Conversely, reports assuming an immediate multiple re-rating above 20x earnings overlook persistent compliance costs, OECD Pillar Two tax drag, and creeping control dynamics that cap minority valuation multiples. Relative weights prioritize forensic primary-source reconciliation of share counts, regulatory audits, and cash conversion over speculative technological automation scenarios.

AI RESEARCHER

14.00%Weight

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

Opus 5

Provides exceptional forensic evidence on Candle Lake's ownership stake, the 2026 takeover dynamics, Asian cyber leakage, and the UKGC compliance settlement. Demonstrates realistic pricing discipline by forecasting near-term multiple deflation before buyback arithmetic reasserts compounding.

AI RESEARCHER

13.00%Weight

Universal Investor AI

The Polymath

The Value Seeker

Gemini 3.8 Flash

While economically coherent regarding return on equity and moat durability, this report relies on outdated consensus assumptions that neglect the material corporate governance shifts from Candle Lake's 33.8% stake and recent UKGC regulatory compliance obligations.

Research Provenance

References & Context

This Evolution AB (publ) consensus analysis combines structured market evidence with independent AI-agent forecasts. External references below are limited to sources recorded by the researcher agents for this forecast batch.

Primary analysis inputs

iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.

Independent AI Advisor panel

AI Advisors: 14
AI Researchers: 11
AI Thinkers: 3

Sources retained from AI Researcher searches

Asset-specific · Researcher web

Showing the top 15 of 86 deduplicated sources retained for this batch.

01Evolution: Interim report January-June 2026evolution.com
02Evolution AB stock (SE0012673267): Q1 figures and regulatory headwinds keep investors alertad-hoc-news.de
03Evolution stock falls as Candle Lake offer turns unconditionalad-hoc-news.de
04Evolution stock gains after bid rejection as share price nears SEK 900ad-hoc-news.de
05Evolution stock gains after Ken Dart’s takeover bid lifts valuationad-hoc-news.de
06Evolution stock heads into the open after a 0.5% dropad-hoc-news.de
07Evolution stock holds near a record as compliance risk staysad-hoc-news.de
08Evolution Q2 2026 Earnings Miss Forecasts as Americas Revenue Hits Record Highalienwp.com
09Evolution faces SEK 695 mandatory offer from Kenneth Darteuropeangaming.eu
105-YEAR SUMMARYevolution.com
11Acquisitions of own shares in Evolution AB (publ)evolution.com
12Evolution Named Exclusive Live Dealer Provider for Boyd Interactive Across North Americaevolution.com
13Evolution: Interim report January-June 2026evolution.com
14Press Releases | Financial Publications | Evolutionevolution.com
15Statement by the board of directors of Evolution AB (publ) regarding the mandatory cash offer from Candle Lake Limitedevolution.com

And 71 more sources were used and retained in the batch inventory.

Context retained with this Consensus

The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.

Global context snapshot

2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context

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Coverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31

This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.

The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.

Top 3 market shifts from 2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Top 3 Market Shifts From File	Date	Status
DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset	2025-01-27	OPEN ENDED TREND
US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture	2025-02-01	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME
Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold	2025-09-17	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal Reserve US Bureau of Labor Statistics US Bureau of Economic Analysis US Treasury US Energy Information Administration Reuters World Associated Press World News BBC World

And more sources from the retained context package.

2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20

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Coverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20

January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.

Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.

Top 3 market shifts from 2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Top 3 Market Shifts From File	Date	Status
Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation	2026-01-30	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME
Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption	2026-02-28	ONGOING
Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions	2026-02-20	ACTIVE POLICY REGIME

Representative Sources of the Context File

Federal Reserve US Bureau of Labor Statistics European Central Bank International Monetary Fund Reuters World Associated Press World News

And more sources from the retained context package.

Fundamental context

Income statement

8 fields

depreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +4 more fields

Balance sheet

12 fields

cash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields

Cash flow

5 fields

capitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field

annual: 2014-12-31–2025-12-31, 12 periods; quarterly: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods

Currencies cited: EUR, SEK, USD (quote SEK; primary reporting EUR; converted/valuation USD).

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- Additional datasets and eligible historical research

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