AI Consensus Investment Thesis
CPG: Compass Group Stock Price, Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year and 5 Year Targets
Compass Group: 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook and Rating
Compass Group (CPG) has an immediate No Action - Keep Monitoring consensus AI recommendation, based on 14 AI analysts.
The 1-year target is $32.9 for , with +0.80% expected return (+3.35% including net dividends) and a NEUTRAL rating.
The 5-year target is $48.3 for , with +47.98% expected return (+69.29% including net dividends) and a BUY rating.
Latest available market price: USD 32.6, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 2.78%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 2.78% · Two-year annualized gross: 2.7%.
Tax withholding assumption: 0% (GB). One-off special payments are excluded.
Original published assumption: 2% per year.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
Targets retain their original publication dates. Returns use the dated market close and the time remaining to each fixed target date. Current ratings also require fresh quotes and analysis, with more than 90 days remaining. Past targets have no forward return. Eligibility checked .
Compass Group Flagship Insight
Scale Procurement Moats Convert Institutional Food Inflation Into Durable Compounded Earnings
Across input reports, a sharp divergence emerges between flawed deep-value screening narratives and verifiable primary data. While first-time institutional outsourcing and procurement scale provide durable operational compounding, elevated benchmark interest rates, mobilization capital intensity, and wage repricing lags constrain valuation multiple expansion.
How were the Investment Thesis and Forecasts created?
14 AI advisors, guided by 9 analytical frameworks, contribute to the deep analysis by iPulse AI Engine.
Superintelligence (Anthropologist)
Universal Investor (Polymath)
J.P. Morgan (Titan)
Warren Buffett (Value Purist)
Elon Musk (Visionary)
Machiavelli (Insider)
Michael Burry (Vulture)
Ray Dalio (Strategist)
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower)
Ran across these frontier AI models
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Compass Group: forecast questions
What is Compass Group (CPG)'s 1-year price forecast?
Compass Group's 1-year target is $32.9 for Sept 2027. The current AI rating is NEUTRAL. The expected return from the recorded close is +0.80%, or +3.35% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 32.6, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is Compass Group (CPG)'s 5-year price forecast?
Compass Group's 5-year target is $48.3 for Sept 2031. The current AI rating is BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +47.98%, or +69.29% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 32.6, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is the return basis?
Latest available market price: USD 32.6, as of 20 Oct 2026. These are model projections, not guaranteed future prices.
How can I compare the AI opinions and audit past Compass Group forecasts?
14 AI analysts contribute to this publication. AI Opinions shows individual advisor forecasts and reasoning. Forecast History preserves earlier published batches; their figures describe their original publication, not today's outlook.
How does an AI-generated forecast for Compass Group differ from Wall Street analyst consensus?
Wall Street consensus aggregates estimates from human analysts. For listed companies, these typically include brokerage price targets, earnings forecasts and ratings. iPulse AI's forecast for Compass Group is a separate AI consensus generated through its own research workflow. Different inputs, forecast dates, assumptions and weighting can therefore produce different targets.
We believe the era of investment research conducted only by human analysts is drawing to a close. Frontier models increasingly match or exceed expert work on selected professional benchmarks, including evaluations covering financial analysis. Research on multi-model synthesis also shows that combining model responses can improve on a single model's output in the tasks studied.
iPulse AI generates transparent investment research and market forecasts using a swarm of AI configurations, analytical frameworks and frontier models. The workflow applies multiple verification, challenge and synthesis layers, with selective editorial review under Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief. Published assumptions, disagreements and past forecasts remain available so readers can inspect the reasoning and audit outcomes.
For a research cycle covering 426 assets with 14 perspectives per asset, our internal workload model estimates approximately 114,000 hours of traditional analyst work. It assumes 16 hours per individual research report, 28 hours per consensus for synthesis and validation, plus shared data preparation. Parallel AI execution allows a deep-analysis cycle across hundreds of assets to complete in up to one day. The human-hours figure is an illustrative workload estimate, rather than measured time savings. Our research methodology explains the automated workflow.
Compass Group: Investment Thesis Summary
Dotted terms link to the glossary; hover or focus for a preview. Browse technical terms
If you invest $10,000 in Compass Group at the latest market close (20 Oct 2026): $16,929 by Sept 2031 versus $13,751 for S&P 500 benchmark.
Returns use the same dated market close, fixed targets and remaining dividend period as the forecast table.
* Return is calculated incl. 2.8% net dividend yield for Compass Group.
Compass Group represents a high-quality global operational compounder whose fundamental investment thesis is frequently obscured by screening data corruption. The enterprise converts a fragmented, fifty-percent self-operated catering market into multi-year contracted annuities, leveraging unrivaled Group Purchasing Organization scale via Foodbuy to secure wholesale rebates unavailable to regional competitors. Contractual indexation mechanisms and negative working capital provide structural inflation protection, sustaining mid-to-high single-digit organic revenue growth. Valuation sensitivity remains the critical pivot. Trading at roughly twenty times forward earnings with trailing net debt near 1.7 times EBITDA following European acquisitions, the asset offers quality compounding rather than deep-value multiple expansion. High sovereign yields impose a persistent discount-rate ceiling on long-duration cash flows.
Key insights
- Mobilization capital expenditure and post-acquisition debt service temporarily constrain distributable free cash flow, deferring aggressive share repurchase programs until FY2028.
- Group Purchasing Organization density enables selective cost-sharing during competitive renewals, weaponizing supplier rebates to defend 96% client retention rates.
- Permanent hybrid work attendance patterns establish a structural volume ceiling in metropolitan office catering, shifting incremental growth toward defensive healthcare.
Compass Group: 5 Year Consensus Forecast
20 quarterly price targets, returns and rationale, with advisor range and benchmark
Forward returns are updated using the latest market close price of USD 32.6, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 2.78%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 2.78% · Two-year annualized gross: 2.7%.
Tax withholding assumption: 0% (GB). One-off special payments are excluded.
Original published assumption: 2% per year.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
The consensus target follows an expert-weighted price path synthesized from 14 AI advisor opinions. See Opinion weights and rationale for the exact allocation and reasoning.
Forecast methodology and reference values
Published targets are anchored on 18 Sept 2026 at USD 30. Original quarter-to-quarter target changes are retained. Forward returns use the remaining time to each fixed target date.
The pessimistic and optimistic advisor base cases are the lowest and highest published advisor base-case targets for each quarter. The advisor at either extreme can change between quarters. Benchmark values are in USD.
Scroll the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Evidence-Weighted Consensus Price Path | Individual Advisor Range & Reference Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus target (USD) | Forecast quarter-to-quarter price change | Forward price return | Forward return incl. net dividends | Forecast rationale | Pessimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | Optimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | |
| $30.5 | +1.64% | -6.56% | -6.14% | Fiscal results confirm resilient organic revenue growth above seven percent, but back-loaded mobilization capital expenditures and elevated sovereign yields temper immediate valuation multiple expansion across institutional registries. | $29.1 | $31.5 | $750 | |
| $31.0 | +1.63% | -5.02% | -3.96% | Mobilized healthcare and education contracts begin generating steady cash flows, while dynamic pricing indexation successfully offsets annual minimum-wage adjustments across North American and European accounts. | $30.2 | $32.7 | $736 | |
| $32.1 | +3.70% | -1.65% | +0.14% | Interim financial results highlight underlying margin progression toward 7.5%, supported by procurement synergies from recent European acquisitions, although seasonal working capital absorption partially constrains cash returns. | $31.1 | $34.7 | $743 | |
| $32.9 | +2.33% | +0.80% | +3.35% | Peak summer sports and leisure concessions generate solid volume throughput, offsetting subdued corporate office attendance and confirming resilient net new business additions within the target band. | $31.8 | $35.7 | $755 | |
| $34.0 | +3.57% | +4.17% | +7.53% | Annual cash flow delivery demonstrates that prior contract mobilization spending is generating attractive returns, facilitating balance sheet deleveraging toward target parameters and supporting progressive dividend distributions. | $33.0 | $37.5 | $776 | |
| $34.4 | +1.01% | +5.39% | +9.54% | European acquired operations contribute incremental cross-selling and supply chain benefits, though competitive contract retendering processes require sharing efficiency gains with institutional clients to protect retention. | $32.4 | $39.0 | $787 | |
| $35.6 | +3.61% | +9.07% | +14.15% | Deployments of automated checkout kiosks and algorithmic labor scheduling lower unit-level service costs, protecting site-level contribution margins against sticky hospitality wage inflation. | $33.7 | $40.2 | $803 | |
| $36.0 | +1.11% | +10.29% | +16.23% | A mild pause in discretionary corporate dining volumes coincides with a new contract onboarding cycle, temporarily softening cash conversion and moderating quarterly equity price momentum. | $34.0 | $41.8 | $812 | |
| $37.3 | +3.55% | +14.28% | +21.25% | Fiscal disclosures prove that baseline contract retention holds firm near 96%, while renewed free cash flow generation enables the resumption of programmatic open-market share buybacks. | $35.4 | $43.5 | $839 | |
| $38.2 | +2.44% | +17.03% | +25.02% | Defensive non-cyclical verticals in healthcare and senior living deliver steady volume expansion, insulating operating profit from broader macroeconomic cooling and corporate footprint rationalization. | $36.1 | $44.8 | $851 | |
| $39.3 | +2.83% | +20.40% | +29.51% | Centralized group purchasing organizations handle larger external procurement volumes, unlocking supplier rebates that drive operating profit growth ahead of baseline top-line revenue gains. | $37.2 | $46.6 | $872 | |
| $39.9 | +1.56% | +22.24% | +32.40% | Competitive bidding across prime corporate accounts intensifies, prompting moderate reinvestment into client facilities to protect market share and keeping quarterly equity appreciation tightly aligned with earnings. | $37.5 | $48.0 | $886 | |
| $41.3 | +3.53% | +26.53% | +37.98% | Annual financial reporting validates sustained per-share earnings growth, with net leverage declining comfortably inside the target corridor and underwriting disciplined capital allocation across dividends and buybacks. | $38.7 | $49.9 | $910 | |
| $42.2 | +2.19% | +29.29% | +41.94% | Mature European operations deliver stable recurring earnings, dampening operational execution risk while steady organic contract additions in North America maintain predictable through-cycle cash flow. | $39.5 | $51.4 | $916 | |
| $43.4 | +2.77% | +32.97% | +46.99% | Incremental digital productivity tools and automated kitchen inventory systems absorb periodic wage resets, preserving operating margins without requiring speculative technological breakthroughs. | $40.2 | $53.4 | $937 | |
| $43.8 | +0.92% | +34.19% | +49.37% | Valuation multiples experience a modest reset as investors acknowledge mature procurement capture, while steady underlying contract volume growth sustains positive quarterly performance. | $40.6 | $55.0 | $947 | |
| $45.2 | +3.31% | +38.48% | +55.20% | Fiscal-year results confirm robust free cash conversion, demonstrating that organic growth remains capital-efficient while sustained debt discipline keeps credit metrics pristine across credit agencies. | $41.9 | $56.7 | $970 | |
| $46.2 | +2.11% | +41.54% | +59.71% | An expanded institutional outsourcing market sustains net new business wins, providing dependable baseline volume visibility as capital allocation shifts heavily toward cash distributions. | $42.7 | $58.4 | $980 | |
| $47.3 | +2.53% | +44.91% | +64.64% | Consistent operational execution and procurement density support operating margin stability, allowing per-share earnings compounding to carry equity appreciation without relying on multiple expansion. | $43.6 | $60.1 | $1,000 | |
| $48.3 | +2.12% | +47.98% | +69.29% | The forecast horizon concludes with the business functioning as a proven, lower-volatility compounder, where durable operating profit growth successfully offsets long-term discount-rate headwinds. | $44.4 | $61.9 | $1,012 | |
Show remaining 18 quartersShow first 2 quarters only
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Compass Group Stock Analysis & Scenarios Deep Dive
Compass Group: Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market commentary perceives the company as a low-margin legacy food contractor encumbered by post-pandemic hybrid work patterns and relentless wage inflation. Alternatively, automated data feeds incorrectly price the shares as a deep-value anomaly at fourteen times earnings with a double-digit cash yield, double-counting interim financial statements and ignoring actual post-acquisition balance sheet gearing.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The best-supported assessment reveals no compelling deep-value underpricing gap; rather, the shares are fairly priced as a high-grade compounder trading near twenty times forward earnings. The crowd's analytical blind spot lies in underestimating the structural tailwind of first-time outsourcing, which accelerates during inflationary spikes as self-operated institutions surrender dining operations. However, high sovereign yields and contract mobilization capital expenditures counterbalance this operating momentum, preventing substantial multiple expansion.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? The primary convergence trigger is the audited fiscal reporting cycle and capital-allocation update. Demonstrating organic revenue growth holding within the target corridor of four to five percent, paired with underlying operating margin progression toward 7.5%, will disprove margin-compression fears. Observable balance sheet deleveraging below 1.5 times EBITDA will provide the hard evidence required for institutional investors to reprice per-share earnings durability.
Compass Group: Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed and Fear Sentiment
- Fear
- Volatility Regime
- Moderate
- Convergence Cycle Position
- Growing Awareness
Sentiment diverges between models projecting aggressive multiple re-rating based on misunderstood cash yields and forensic perspectives anticipating modest earnings-led appreciation. This tension reflects whether market participants treat catering as a cyclical commodity or an indispensable institutional utility.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The prevailing macro regime of restrictive central-bank interest rates and persistent food inflation generates a mixed setup. Sticky culinary inflation operates as a structural tailwind by accelerating client outsourcing into scale procurement umbrellas. Conversely, higher sovereign bond yields act as a persistent valuation headwind, increasing debt refinancing costs and capping valuation multiples for long-duration cash compounders.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The decisive disagreement centers on baseline financial reality: several analyses rely on corrupted data feeds asserting ninety-six billion dollars in revenue and an eleven percent cash yield, projecting dramatic multiple re-rating. Conversely, verified primary analyses show trailing revenue near forty-eight billion dollars, net debt at 1.7 times EBITDA, and a forward multiple around twenty times. This fundamental dispute alters the entire thesis from a deep-value windfall to an operational compounding scenario. Resolving the debate requires auditing the November 2026 fiscal results to verify actual cash conversion and reported organic revenue.
Compass Group: Critical Influencing Factors
Near-certain positive forcesTop Drivers & Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-time outsourcing structural conversion wave | Sector And Industry | +24% | +28% | Severe wage and ingredient inflation compels self-operated institutions to abandon internal kitchen operations. Compass captures approximately half of all new contracts from first-time outsourcers in an addressable market that remains roughly fifty percent self-operated. This non-discretionary conversion delivers predictable mid-single-digit organic growth across hospitals, universities, and industrial facilities. |
| Foodbuy procurement scale and rebate advantage | Competitive Positioning | +18% | +20% | Operating massive Group Purchasing Organizations across core markets enables Compass to extract supplier volume rebates unavailable to fragmented regional competitors. Managing tens of billions in food spend secures a 200 to 400 basis point procurement spread, insulating operating margins and enabling competitive tender pricing that protects client retention. |
| Contractual inflation indexation pass-through | Operational Efficiency | +14% | +16% | Dynamic contract structures, combining cost-plus terms and formulaic inflation escalators, systematically transfer agricultural input and statutory wage increases onto client budgets. With client retention holding near 96%, price adjustments are absorbed with minimal churn, protecting consolidated underlying operating margins across volatile commodity and labor cycles. |
| Accretive bolt-on regional market consolidation | Capital Allocation | +12% | +14% | Strategic deployments of free cash flow into premium regional operators, such as Vermaat in Continental Europe, expand route density and local purchasing power. Routing acquired volumes through centralized procurement extracts immediate administrative and purchasing synergies, adding one to two percentage points of annual underlying profit expansion. |
Near-certain negative forcesTop Frictions & Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage inflation outruns contract repricing | Operational Efficiency | -11% | -13% | Frontline culinary and service labor accounts for roughly half of total operating overhead. Statutory minimum-wage hikes and localized staffing shortages introduce temporary sixty to ninety-day indexation lags across fixed-price contracts. This repricing friction compresses localized unit contribution margins during acute inflationary spikes before contract adjustments take full commercial effect. |
| Valuation discount drag from elevated yields | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -10% | -4.0% | Trading near twenty times forward earnings, the equity functions as a long-duration quality asset whose multiple is vulnerable to benchmark interest rate tightening. Elevated sovereign yields elevate equity discount rates, compressing valuation multiples and requiring bottom-line earnings growth to carry the entire burden of future shareholder returns. |
| Hybrid office desk density rationalization | Sector And Industry | -9.0% | -8.0% | Permanent hybrid working arrangements in metropolitan financial and technology centers restrict Monday and Friday cafeteria footfall. Subdued per-site dining volumes cap organic volume acceleration in traditional corporate dining facilities, forcing Compass to adapt contract terms, deploy unattended micro-markets, or absorb lower client catering subsidies. |
| Growth capital mobilization and deleveraging drag | Capital Allocation | -7.0% | -5.0% | Onboarding major multi-facility contracts requires front-loaded mobilization capital expenditures, temporarily elevating investment intensity above the historical 3.5% revenue ratio. Combined with debt-financed acquisitions pushing leverage to 1.7 times EBITDA, available cash flow is channeled toward balance sheet deleveraging rather than immediate discretionary share repurchases. |
Compass Group: What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Event Risk Score: Very Low 7/100Asset-level relative pressure from clustered consensus frictions and tail risks. This is not the probability or risk score of an individual force.Plausible downside scenariosTail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Severe corporate recession and white-collar retrenchment | 28% | -24% | A synchronized global economic downturn colliding with aggressive enterprise AI white-collar automation between 2027 and 2029 could collapse like-for-like dining volumes in the Business & Industry segment. Negative operating leverage on fixed site overhead would compress operating margins below 5.5%, halving free cash flow generation and triggering multiple de-rating. |
| Systemic centralized supply chain pathogen outbreak | 14% | -26% | A virulent pathogen contamination originating within a primary Foodbuy distribution node across contracted hospitals or school districts would cause catastrophic reputational wreckage. Immediate contract cancellations and punitive regulatory liabilities could push client retention below 90%, causing multi-year earnings erosion and severe valuation multiple contraction. |
Plausible upside scenariosTail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transformational public healthcare outsourcing wave | 32% | +22% | Severe sovereign fiscal deficits and hospital operating losses across Western economies could compel state health services to mandate full privatization of hospital catering by 2028. Compass's specialized clinical nutrition credentials and logistics footprint position it as the preeminent bidder, potentially adding billions in high-retention, non-cyclical revenue at premium margins. |
| Autonomous cafeteria micro-market breakthrough | 26% | +20% | Rapid commercialization of computer-vision checkout kiosks and automated food preparation modules across thousands of institutional client sites could trigger a structural labor productivity breakthrough by 2029. Reducing site-level labor hours per meal served by twenty percent would expand operating margins past 8.0%, generating substantial surplus free cash flow. |
Company Financial AnalysisCompass Group: Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included. View latest Compass Group financials here.
Earnings and financials
Compass Group's financial trajectory reflects steady, resilient operational growth. For the six months ended March 2026, revenue reached twenty-five billion dollars with organic growth exceeding seven percent, supported by consistent contract wins and client retention holding near ninety-six percent. Several automated market summaries mistakenly doubled these figures by aggregating interim and annual data. In reality, Compass generates dependable recurring profits from contracted dining facilities rather than cyclical windfalls, converting healthy operating earnings into durable cash.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 47.5B | USD 1.9B | USD 3B |
| 2024 | USD 55.1B | USD 1.4B | USD 2.2B |
| 2023 | GBP 31B | GBP 1.3B | GBP 1.5B |
| 2022 | GBP 25.5B | GBP 1.1B | GBP 1.1B |
| 2021 | GBP 17.9B | GBP 357M | GBP 943M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.0x | TTM | USD-normalized | USD / -- |
| 2024 | -- | TTM | Unavailable | USD / -- |
| 2023 | -- | TTM | Unavailable | USD / GBP |
| 2022 | 33.5x | Annual | USD-normalized | USD / GBP |
| 2021 | 75.0x | Annual | USD-normalized | USD / GBP |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
Underlying operating margins have progressed steadily to 7.4%, driven by centralized purchasing through Foodbuy and administrative efficiency. While reported statutory margins dipped slightly due to acquisition amortisation, core business profitability continues to expand. Compass protects its margins by embedding inflation clauses into service contracts, passing higher food and labor costs onto institutional clients. Unmatched bulk buying power ensures Compass secures lower ingredient prices than regional caterers, sustaining healthy operating profits across economic cycles.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 3.2B | 6.7% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | USD 2.8B | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| 2023 | GBP 2B | 6.4% | 4.2% |
| 2022 | GBP 1.5B | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| 2021 | GBP 736M | 4.1% | 2.0% |
Balance sheet and leverage
The balance sheet remains structurally resilient, although recent European acquisitions elevated net debt to 8.6 billion dollars, or roughly 1.7 times underlying EBITDA. This leverage remains manageable but sits slightly above management's long-term comfort target of 1.0 to 1.5 times. A negative working capital cycle provides cost-free operational funding, as customer payments are collected before food supplier invoices mature. Management plans to use incoming cash to reduce debt before resuming aggressive share buybacks.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Reported net cash / (debt) | Debt less (cash + short-term investments), calculated | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 7B | USD 574.7M | USD 6.4B net debt | USD 6.4B | 0.73x |
| 2024 | USD 5.9B | USD 623M | USD 5.3B net debt | USD 5.3B | 0.74x |
| 2023 | GBP 5.3B | GBP 1B | GBP 4.2B net debt | GBP 4.2B | 0.75x |
| 2022 | GBP 5B | GBP 2B | GBP 3.1B net debt | GBP 3B | 0.95x |
| 2021 | GBP 4.5B | GBP 1.8B | GBP 2.6B net debt | GBP 2.6B | 0.95x |
Reported net debt retains the source definition, which can deduct cash alone. Cash plus short-term investments is broader liquidity; the separately calculated column subtracts that full amount from total debt for the same fiscal period and currency. Reported net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
Management maintains a disciplined, capital-light business model where capital expenditures typically absorb roughly 3.5% of revenue. Spending is strictly targeted toward digital kitchen technology, automated ordering kiosks, and client facility fit-outs that deliver rapid cash payback. Recent cash flow was heavily directed toward strategic European acquisitions, notably Vermaat for 1.7 billion dollars. While onboarding large contracts temporarily elevates mobilization spending, the business avoids heavy factory assets, allowing client infrastructure to fund long-term expansion.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 561.7M | -- |
| 2024 | USD 901M | -- |
| 2023 | GBP 580M | -- |
| 2022 | GBP 459M | -- |
| 2021 | GBP 228M | -- |
Behind the synthesisCompass Group: How Each Individual AI Forecaster Opinion Shapes the Global Consensus
This publication’s recorded synthesis allocated voting influence across 14 advisor opinions. The weights and rationales below are retained from that synthesis.
The majority of submitted reports exhibit correlated analytical errors, accepting unverified screening feeds that double-count interim results to assert ninety-six billion dollars in revenue, an eleven percent free cash flow yield, and a fourteen-times earnings multiple. Primary source filings confirm trailing revenue is approximately forty-eight billion dollars, trailing net debt stands near 1.7 times EBITDA following European acquisitions, and the stock trades at roughly twenty times forward earnings. The strongest credible contrarian insight proves that this asset is an elite operational compounder rather than an extreme value bargain. Consequently, heavy weighting is awarded to the few analyses that independently reconciled official company disclosures, correctly recognizing that capital intensity from contract mobilization and elevated discount rates will moderate multiple expansion. Reports relying on distorted screening metrics receive minimal weight.
All 14 opinions
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 · 2026-07-24 releaseWeight: 31.1%
Provides primary-source verification debunking erroneous screening multiples, establishing true trailing revenue near forty-eight billion dollars and a forward price-to-earnings ratio near twenty times. Causal reasoning accurately models discount-rate compression against organic compounding.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra · 2026-09-03 releaseWeight: 27.2%
Demonstrates rigorous forensic accounting by identifying the double-counting distortion in trailing revenue and screening multiples. Correctly grounds financial projections in actual semiannual filings and trading updates, acknowledging post-acquisition leverage and back-loaded mobilization capital expenditures.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.8%
Correctly references verifiable forty-six-billion-dollar revenue baselines and European acquisition integration dynamics. It details contract indexation mechanisms effectively, though it projects slightly optimistic margin expansion toward terminal targets without sufficient discount-rate friction.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 4.9%
Captures the secular driver of first-time institutional outsourcing and procurement advantages. However, it relies heavily on overstated trailing free cash flow metrics and assumes aggressive multiple expansion that understates financing cost headwinds in a restrictive monetary regime.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 3.9%
Provides realistic operational insights into contract wage lag and digital cafeteria efficiencies. Its weight is capped due to unverified revenue aggregation assumptions that overestimate near-term free cash flow yields and repurchase velocity.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 3.9%
Accurately diagnoses the competitive advantage of group purchasing scale over subscale caterers. However, its valuation anchor is distorted by screening data errors, leading to an overstatement of the immediate margin of safety.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.9%
Presents sound economic logic regarding negative working capital float and procurement moats. Nevertheless, it uncritically accepts unverified data feeds showing ninety-six billion dollars in trailing revenue and an inflated cash yield, compromising its valuation baseline.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.9%
Validates commercial scale advantages and contract indexation structures, but adopts sensationalist assumptions regarding imperial pricing dominance while overlooking discount-rate headwinds and realistic balance sheet deleveraging timelines.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.9%
Accurately details supply chain rebates and negative working capital advantages, yet repeats erroneous screening fundamentals regarding enterprise value and cash flow, undermining its quantitative path.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.9%
Identifies sovereign defense and healthcare contract stability, but relies on flawed ninety-six-billion-dollar revenue premises and speculative transatlantic listing catalysts to justify aggressive multiple re-rating.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.9%
Offers pragmatic insights into physical kitchen labor ceilings and hybrid work volume drag. However, it incorporates corrupted screening data regarding cash yield and trailing enterprise multiples.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.9%
Presents coherent through-cycle macro reasoning regarding stagflationary resilience, yet builds its core valuation trajectory on duplicated financial inputs, diluting its quantitative reliability.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 1.9%
Articulates non-discretionary biological demand well, but bases its entire valuation thesis on distorted ninety-six-billion-dollar revenue and eleven percent cash yield screens, ignoring post-acquisition leverage reality.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 1.9%
Articulates classical capital-light compounding principles effectively, but incorporates unverified screening figures that misdiagnose a premium-multiple compounder as an extreme value dislocation.
References & Context
Research Provenance
Analysis generated by iPulse AI Engine v7 using recorded market data, operating under the editorial standards and supervision of Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief.
External references below are sources recorded by the researcher agents for this Compass Group forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher web35 available sources from this batch. The first 15 are shown below; expand to read the rest.
- Continued strong execution drives another quarter of sustained growth compass-group.com
- Half Year Results Announcement for the six months ended 31 ... compass-group.com
- Compass Group stock falls after €250 million note admission on London market ad-hoc-news.de
- Compass Group stock heads into the open after a 1.53% slide ad-hoc-news.de
- Compass Group stock heads into the open after a 5.1% slide ad-hoc-news.de
- Compass Group stock steadies ahead of the open after closing at GBP 26.80 ad-hoc-news.de
- Check out Compass Group PLC's stock price (CPG.L) in real time cnbc.com
- Change in trading currency of Compass Group’s Ordinary Shares | Compass Group compass-group.com
- Compass Group First Quarter Trading Update 2026 | Compass Group compass-group.com
- Compass Group Half Year 2026 presentation slides compass-group.com
- Compass Group hosts Procurement Deep Dive | Compass Group compass-group.com
- COMPASS GROUP Q3 TRADING UPDATE TRANSCRIPT 21JULY 2026 PRESENTATION compass-group.com
- Compass-Group Half Year 2026 Investor Factsheet compass-group.com
- Compass_Group_Half_year_results 2026_Full_Transcript compass-group.com
- Compass_Group_Q3_2026_Trading_Update_Transcript compass-group.com
Show 20 more sources
- CPG-FY25-press release-FINAL compass-group.com
- CPG-FY25-press release-FINAL - Compass Group compass-group.com
- Half Year Results Announcement for the six months ended 31 March 2026 | Compass Group compass-group.com
- Compass Group Plc (CMPGY) H1 FY2026 earnings call transcript finance.yahoo.com
- Compass Group PLC (CPG.L) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com
- bnpp exane downgrades compass group, shares slide hl.co.uk
- Compass Group UK & Ireland CEO to retire and interim appointment announced - Hospitality & Catering News hospitalityandcateringnews.com
- Half Year Results Announcement | Company Announcement | Investegate investegate.co.uk
- Compass Group affirms full-year guidance after posting 7.1% growth in fiscal Q3 By Investing.com investing.com
- Earnings call transcript: Compass Group Q2 2026 shows robust growth By Investing.com investing.com
- Halifax – Market news investments.halifax.co.uk
- COMPASS GROUP PLC CPG Stock | London Stock Exchange londonstockexchange.com
- COMPASS GROUP PLC CPG Trade recap - Stock | London Stock Exchange londonstockexchange.com
- Compass Group PLC (CPG) morningstar.com
- Compass Group releases transcript of half-year results conference call sahmcapital.com
- Compass Group PLC (CMPG.Y) Leadership & Management Team Analysis - Simply Wall St simplywall.st
- Q3 Fiscal 2026 revenues above expectations; focus on execution sodexo.com
- Compass Share Price, Forecast & Financials (LON:CPG) | Stockopedia stockopedia.com
- REG - Compass Group PLC - Q3 Trading Update — TradingView News tradingview.com
- Compass Group finalizes acquisition of Vermaat Group to accelerate further growth in Europe. - Vermaat Group vermaatgroup.com
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
Archived context covering 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31. Its recorded scope includes technology and capital cycle; trade and industrial policy; monetary policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 13.3K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 22.7K tokens
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Archived context covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20. Its recorded scope includes monetary policy and rates; geopolitics energy and shipping; trade and industrial policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 84.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.4K words
- Characters
- 84.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 21.2K tokens
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental Context Passed as Input to the Models
Time range: Annual fiscal periods: 2014-09-30–2025-09-30, 12 periods; Quarterly fiscal periods: 2023-09-30–2026-03-31, 6 periods.
Currencies cited: GBP, USD (quote USD; primary reporting GBP; converted/valuation USD).
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Income statement
8 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +4 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
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