AI Consensus Investment Thesis
AVAV: AeroVironment Stock Price, Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year and 5 Year Targets
AeroVironment: 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook and Rating
AeroVironment (AVAV) has an immediate Strong Buy & Keep consensus AI recommendation, based on 14 AI analysts.
The 1-year target is $181 for , with +60.52% expected return (+60.52% including net dividends) and a STRONG BUY rating.
The 5-year target is $291 for , with +158.07% expected return (+158.07% including net dividends) and a STRONG BUY rating.
Latest available market price: USD 113, as of 6 Nov 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-11-06.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
Targets retain their original publication dates. Returns use the dated market close and the time remaining to each fixed target date. Current ratings also require fresh quotes and analysis, with more than 90 days remaining. Past targets have no forward return. Eligibility checked .
AeroVironment Flagship Insight
Autonomous Warfare Monopoly Faces Capital Intensity Test Before Converting Backlog
There is high consensus that surging demand for attritable loitering munitions and directed energy guarantees robust top-line growth. However, sharp divergence surrounds whether heavy facility capital expenditure, acquired service margin dilution, and convertible debt settlement will constrain shareholder cash returns.
How were the Investment Thesis and Forecasts created?
14 AI advisors, guided by 9 analytical frameworks, contribute to the deep analysis by iPulse AI Engine.
Ray Dalio (Strategist)
Universal Investor (Polymath)
Warren Buffett (Value Purist)
Michael Burry (Vulture)
Elon Musk (Visionary)
J.P. Morgan (Titan)
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower)
Machiavelli (Insider)
Superintelligence (Anthropologist)
Ran across these frontier AI models
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
AeroVironment: Investment Thesis Summary
Dotted terms link to the glossary; hover or focus for a preview. Browse technical terms
If you invest $10,000 in AeroVironment at the latest market close (6 Nov 2026): $25,807 by Sept 2031 versus $14,376 for S&P 500 benchmark.
Returns use the same dated market close, fixed targets and remaining dividend period as the forecast table.
AeroVironment presents a structural tension between indisputable battlefield doctrine and demanding capital allocation reality. Demand is verified by a 1.5 billion dollar funded backlog and sovereign budget prioritization of attritable autonomous systems. However, transformative consolidation has diluted share count by over sixty percent, loaded 747.5 million dollars in zero-coupon convertible debt due 2030, and expanded low-margin service revenue. Furthermore, capital expenditures running at 12 to 14 percent of revenue consume roughly nine-tenths of guided adjusted EBITDA, deferring meaningful free cash conversion through fiscal 2028. With the enterprise trading near 25 times forward adjusted EBITDA, current multiples fully discount near-term defense growth, leaving valuation vulnerable to execution delays or rate-driven discount pressure.
Key insights
- Operating leverage depends on high-margin loitering munition hardware outgrowing acquired cost-plus services, as consolidated gross margins face structural drag.
- Near-term free cash flow remains negligible until modern facility buildouts conclude, making shareholder value creation back-loaded into 2029 and beyond.
- Settling the 2030 convertible notes requires substantial operating cash accumulation, turning debt maturity into a critical equity overhang test.
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See Base accessAeroVironment: 5 Year Consensus Forecast
20 quarterly price targets, returns and rationale, with advisor range and benchmark
Forward returns are updated using the latest market close price of USD 113, as of 6 Nov 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 0%. As of 2026-11-06.
Gross TTM: 0% · Two-year annualized gross: 0%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
The consensus target follows an expert-weighted price path synthesized from 14 AI advisor opinions. See Opinion weights and rationale for the exact allocation and reasoning.
Forecast methodology and reference values
Published targets are anchored on 18 Sept 2026 at USD 160. Original quarter-to-quarter target changes are retained. Forward returns use the remaining time to each fixed target date.
The pessimistic and optimistic advisor base cases are the lowest and highest published advisor base-case targets for each quarter. The advisor at either extreme can change between quarters. Benchmark values are in USD.
Scroll the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Consensus target (USD) | Forecast quarter-to-quarter price change | Forward price return | Forward return incl. net dividends | Forecast rationale | Pessimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | Optimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | -0.15% | +41.89% | +41.89% | Sponsor equity lock-up releases introduce secondary supply friction, while elevated interest rates constrain speculative multiples. Solid Switchblade replenishment deliveries provide fundamental support, keeping quarterly price action tightly muted. | $152 | $170 | $750 | |
| $166 | +4.19% | +47.22% | +47.22% | Federal defense appropriations resolve, releasing funded task orders across tactical loitering systems. Initial production on the LOCUST laser program narrows segment operating losses, generating modest valuation multiple stabilization. | $157 | $176 | $736 | |
| $173 | +4.02% | +53.42% | +53.42% | Fiscal 2027 closes meeting revenue guidance near 2.18 billion dollars. The final sponsor lock-up tranche expires, clearing an overhang as factory expansion progresses toward initial operational capability. | $160 | $189 | $743 | |
| $181 | +4.68% | +60.52% | +60.52% | Commissioning of expanded assembly capacity accelerates Switchblade throughput. Positive operating cash flow emerges alongside declining acquisition amortization, prompting institutional accumulation across high-conviction defense portfolios. | $162 | $205 | $755 | |
| $188 | +3.70% | +66.73% | +66.73% | DoD Replicator and LASSO tranches convert into formal delivery task orders. Accelerating production volume absorbs overhead, though ongoing capital outlays keep free cash conversion relatively modest. | $171 | $220 | $776 | |
| $196 | +4.50% | +73.82% | +73.82% | Foreign Military Sales expand as NATO allies expedite attritable UAS procurement. High-margin export deliveries lift blended product margins, supporting steady equity advance despite elevated macro benchmark yields. | $175 | $231 | $787 | |
| $205 | +4.62% | +81.80% | +81.80% | Fiscal 2028 reports confirm revenue surpassing 2.4 billion dollars alongside positive GAAP operating margins. Reduced transaction amortization clarifies cash generation, driving disciplined multiple expansion across institutional accounts. | $182 | $252 | $803 | |
| $211 | +2.67% | +87.12% | +87.12% | Directed-energy air-defense systems achieve operational certifications, driving follow-on task orders. Operating leverage broadens, though the approaching convert redemption window prompts measured trading sentiment. | $182 | $267 | $812 | |
| $218 | +3.21% | +93.33% | +93.33% | Layered counter-UAS contracts scale across domestic military bases. Expanding service and sustainment revenues improve earnings visibility, insulating financial performance from routine federal budget authorization friction. | $191 | $259 | $839 | |
| $225 | +3.36% | +99.54% | +99.54% | Autonomous swarming software deployments across fielded platforms enhance unit pricing power. Software-enabled mission kits widen gross profit margins, supporting steady mid-single-digit equity appreciation. | $193 | $272 | $851 | |
| $232 | +3.03% | +105.75% | +105.75% | Fiscal 2029 closes with robust double-digit EBITDA margins and positive annual free cash flow. Peak facility investments conclude, allowing manufacturing cash generation to begin compounding predictably. | $192 | $291 | $872 | |
| $238 | +2.66% | +111.07% | +111.07% | The unified manufacturing campus reaches full commercial operation, reducing capital intensity. Improving cash-flow yields re-anchor valuation debates, attracting fundamental long-term growth-at-reasonable-price capital. | $197 | $308 | $886 | |
| $245 | +3.09% | +117.28% | +117.28% | Budget reconciliation debates introduce temporary contract timing friction. However, deep backlog visibility and recurring drone fleet sustainment billings prevent meaningful multiple compression during year-end trading. | $206 | $320 | $910 | |
| $252 | +2.88% | +123.48% | +123.48% | Management executes proactive liquidity planning for the maturing convertible debt. Operating cash flows support principal settlement without emergency equity dilution, removing a multi-year balance-sheet concern. | $209 | $336 | $916 | |
| $261 | +3.47% | +131.47% | +131.47% | Fiscal 2030 confirms enterprise revenues crossing 2.8 billion dollars. High factory utilization across loitering strike and directed-energy platforms delivers strong cash flow, sustaining steady market compounding. | $215 | $357 | $937 | |
| $265 | +1.28% | +135.01% | +135.01% | International co-production partnerships in Europe expand deliveries while lowering logistics overhead. Export volumes cushion domestic budget normalization, supporting measured share price gains near multi-year highs. | $211 | $367 | $947 | |
| $271 | +2.64% | +140.33% | +140.33% | Competitive bidding from venture-backed autonomy entrants exerts selective pricing pressure on low-tier tactical airframes. Proprietary counter-UAS and laser suites defend overall profitability, keeping performance stable. | $220 | $382 | $970 | |
| $278 | +2.39% | +146.54% | +146.54% | Next-generation collaborative combat air architectures transition into funded production lines. Expanding high-barrier defense franchises provide durable multi-year cash flow visibility, supporting orderly price appreciation. | $224 | $374 | $980 | |
| $285 | +2.49% | +152.75% | +152.75% | Fiscal 2031 financial reporting showcases normalized operating cash flow exceeding 300 million dollars. Proven multi-domain integration establishes the business as a mature defense-technology compounder. | $229 | $389 | $1,000 | |
| $291 | +2.22% | +158.07% | +158.07% | Terminal forecast period reflects an established defense prime valuation on diversified autonomous warfare franchises. Pristine operational liquidity and recurring programmatic contracts support solid long-term equity compounding. | $233 | $401 | $1,012 |
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AeroVironment Stock Analysis & Scenarios Deep Dive
AeroVironment: Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Outside market consensus treats the company as the premier pure-play listed winner in autonomous drone warfare, anchoring on a 2.8 billion dollar total backlog and substantial implied upside from sell-side targets. Mainstream commentary presumes that trailing GAAP net losses represent harmless non-cash accounting noise that will effortlessly convert into surging cash flow once post-merger integration concludes.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd overestimates immediate cash realization while underestimating capital intensity and balance-sheet friction. Market consensus assumes that high-margin Switchblade demand will immediately translate into distributable owner earnings, ignoring that peak factory capex absorbs nearly all guided adjusted EBITDA through fiscal 2027. Furthermore, the crowd overlooks that acquired services structurally suppress blended gross margins near 26 percent and that 747.5 million dollars in zero-coupon converts loom in 2030.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? Consecutive reporting periods during fiscal 2027 and 2028 demonstrating positive GAAP operating income alongside positive trailing free cash flow will test market assumptions. The decisive signal will be whether operating cash flow expands enough to fund ongoing factory tooling without incremental debt, forcing analysts to reprice the equity based on actual cash conversion rather than backlog headlines.
AeroVironment: Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed and Fear Sentiment
- Fear
- Volatility Regime
- High Erratic
- Convergence Cycle Position
- Stabilization
Sentiment is caught between fear of post-merger dilution and optimism over defense appropriations. The core debate is whether the equity is stabilizing at an attractive trough or entering a protracted valuation derating driven by near-zero free cash flow.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macroeconomic backdrop is a mixed setup. Geopolitical conflict provides a durable sovereign tailwind that insulates defense order intake from economic slowdowns. However, elevated benchmark interest rates and a five percent ten-year Treasury yield penalize long-duration equities that lack current free cash flow, raising discount rates and complicating future refinancing of 2030 convertible debt.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The sharpest dispute centers on cash conversion timing and sustainable margin structure. Bullish reports argue that headline GAAP losses are purely optical distortions caused by 265 million dollars in non-cash purchase amortization, projecting operating margins will rapidly surge past 15% as operating leverage takes hold. Skeptical reports counter that BlueHalo introduced structural service-margin dilution and that capital expenditures of 12 to 14 percent of revenue will starve free cash flow through fiscal 2028. Resolving this tension requires tracking whether fiscal 2027 second-half product gross margins exceed 30% alongside positive free cash flow.
AeroVironment: Critical Influencing Factors
Near-certain positive forcesTop Drivers & Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doctrinal shift toward attritable autonomy | Sector And Industry | +34% | +50% | Modern conflict validates low-cost loitering munitions and autonomous UAS as permanent military doctrine, replacing expensive crewed hardware. The U.S. Army's LASSO program, Replicator initiatives, and foreign military procurements institutionalize Switchblade as standardized equipment. This programmatic transition secures multi-year procurement pipelines, supporting durable volume expansion and high plant utilization across the forecast horizon. |
| Directed energy counter-UAS commercialization | Innovation And Product | +24% | +35% | The proliferation of hostile drone swarms mandates cost-effective defensive perimeters. The Army's 465 million dollar LOCUST laser contract transitions directed energy from developmental prototypes into fixed-price production. As counter-UAS batteries enter volume manufacturing, the Space, Cyber, and Directed Energy segment should invert from operational losses toward positive contribution, creating an indispensable multi-domain defense franchise. |
| Funded defense backlog conversion | Operational Efficiency | +22% | +36% | A record 1.5 billion dollar funded backlog with a 1.4 book-to-bill underpins high revenue visibility. As manufacturing investments in Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, and Huntsville normalize, automated assembly lines will streamline throughput. Converting firmly obligated Pentagon orders into delivered hardware improves fixed-cost absorption, progressively lifting adjusted EBITDA margins toward mid-teens profitability. |
| Allied foreign military sales expansion | Competitive Positioning | +20% | +28% | Geopolitical friction across Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific drives allied defense ministries to accelerate purchases of combat-proven Switchblade and Puma platforms. Foreign military sales carry higher gross margins and favorable payment structures compared to domestic cost-plus development. Expanding export deliveries broadens international revenue mix, insulating corporate cash flows against domestic U.S. appropriations delays. |
Near-certain negative forcesTop Frictions & Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
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| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak capex suppresses free cash | Capital Allocation | -18% | -10% | Management is guiding fiscal 2027 capex to 12-14% of revenue to finance major facility expansions across multiple states. This investment consumes roughly nine-tenths of guided adjusted EBITDA, holding trailing free cash flow near zero. The resulting cash-generation drought limits shareholder returns and leaves valuation unanchored by cash yield until new plants reach maturity. |
| Valuation premium meets tight monetary regime | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -16% | -5.0% | Trading at roughly 25 times forward adjusted EBITDA and 50 times non-GAAP EPS, the stock already capitalizes substantial operational turnaround. With benchmark interest rates elevated near 4% and long yields near 5%, equity discount rates penalize growth companies whose cash flows sit years in the future, capping multiple expansion regardless of operational momentum. |
| Acquired service contract margin dilution | Operational Efficiency | -14% | -22% | Acquiring BlueHalo injected over 400 million dollars in service revenue, structurally compressing consolidated gross margin from 39% to 25%. Service gross margins lag substantially behind proprietary hardware. Blended profitability cannot rebound toward historical peaks unless product revenue significantly outgrows service contracts, delaying consolidated operating margin expansion across the integration window. |
| Sponsor equity overhang and convertible debt | Capital Allocation | -12% | -8.0% | Issuing 18.5 million shares to private equity sponsors created persistent secondary block liquidation pressure across lock-up windows through 2027. Concurrently, 747.5 million dollars of zero-coupon convertible notes mature in 2030. These obligations threaten future share dilution or substantial cash refinancing costs, creating an overhang that dampens valuation multiples as maturity approaches. |
AeroVironment: What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Event Risk Score: Moderate 58/100Asset-level relative pressure from clustered consensus frictions and tail risks. This is not the probability or risk score of an individual force.Plausible downside scenariosTail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flagship program stop-work cancellation | 28% | -38% | A major defense program receives a stop-work order or cancellation during budget reconciliations, replicating the January 2026 SCAR terminal setback. A major program cancellation would idle newly expanded manufacturing capacity, trigger another multi-hundred-million-dollar goodwill impairment write-down, and permanently undermine market confidence in post-merger integration execution. |
| Critical component supply chain embargo | 22% | -32% | Escalating trade restrictions or severe geopolitical embargos cut off specialized gallium-nitride semiconductors, rare-earth magnets, or precision seeker optics from Asian refiners. Halting assembly lines would trigger contractual delay penalties, inflate redesign expenses, and create severe inventory carrying costs that eliminate near-term operating cash flow. |
Plausible upside scenariosTail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
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| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Dome national defense mandate | 32% | +44% | Congress formally enacts multi-billion-dollar mandatory appropriations for an integrated national counter-drone shield by late 2027. Selecting LOCUST lasers and Titan radio-frequency systems as standard infrastructure would expand funded backlog past 3.5 billion dollars, triggering massive manufacturing scale and lifting annual revenues above 3.5 billion dollars ahead of schedule. |
| NATO loitering munition bloc standardization | 26% | +38% | European allied nations formally standardize brigade tactical strike doctrines around the Switchblade 600 platform by mid-2028, initiating pooled multinational defense procurement. This coordinated commercialization wave would bypass bilateral export delays, generating over 1.5 billion dollars in high-margin foreign military deliveries and expanding consolidated gross margins above 36%. |
Company Financial AnalysisAeroVironment: Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included. View latest AeroVironment financials here.
Earnings and financials
AeroVironment's top line experienced a dramatic surge in fiscal 2026, with revenue climbing 141 percent to 1.98 billion dollars. However, this explosive growth was driven primarily by the acquisition of BlueHalo rather than organic expansion alone. At the same time, the company reported a GAAP net loss of 265 million dollars, which was heavily influenced by 240.7 million dollars in goodwill impairments and large non-cash purchase accounting amortization charges. The headline accounting loss masks solid underlying operational health. Core adjusted EBITDA reached 286 million dollars for the full year, and early fiscal 2027 results showed quarterly net losses narrowing sharply to 5.1 million dollars on 480.5 million dollars in revenue. While demand is confirmed by a record 1.5 billion dollar funded backlog, turning that revenue into reliable cash flow remains the true test.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 2B | USD -265.1M | USD -164.6M |
| 2025 | USD 820.6M | USD 43.6M | USD -24.1M |
| 2024 | USD 716.7M | USD 59.7M | USD -9.2M |
| 2023 | USD 540.5M | USD -176.2M | USD -3.5M |
| 2022 | USD 445.7M | USD -4.2M | USD -31.9M |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -- | TTM | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2025 | >100x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2024 | 75.4x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2023 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
| 2022 | -- | Annual | Loss-making | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
Gross profit margins dropped dramatically from 39.4 percent in fiscal 2025 to 25.3 percent in fiscal 2026. While purchase accounting charges played a role, the compression is largely structural. BlueHalo brought over 400 million dollars in engineering service contracts, which inherently earn lower profit margins than proprietary drone hardware. Underneath the consolidated numbers, performance is sharply divided. Core Autonomous Systems product gross margins have rebounded to 40 percent on strong pricing power. However, service margins remain weak near 8 percent. Consolidated profit margins cannot return to historical peaks until high-margin hardware production significantly outgrows low-margin acquired services.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD -70.3M | -3.6% | -13.4% |
| 2025 | USD 40.8M | 5.0% | 5.3% |
| 2024 | USD 71.8M | 10.0% | 8.3% |
| 2023 | USD -178.7M | -33.1% | -32.6% |
| 2022 | USD -9.9M | -2.2% | -0.9% |
Balance sheet and leverage
On the surface, AeroVironment maintains a conservative balance sheet, reporting 4.40 billion dollars in equity and a current ratio of 4.30. However, the vast majority of that book value consists of acquired goodwill and intangible assets, which remain vulnerable to write-downs if government programs face cancellation. The critical financial obligation is 747.5 million dollars in zero-coupon convertible notes maturing in 2030. While carrying no annual cash interest expense today, this debt represents a significant future liability. If the stock does not trade high enough to trigger share conversion, management will need substantial cash reserves or new borrowing to repay noteholders.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Reported net cash / (debt) | Debt less (cash + short-term investments), calculated | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 834.8M | USD 632.3M | USD 457.5M net debt | USD 202.5M | 4.30x |
| 2025 | USD 64.3M | USD 40.9M | USD 23.4M net debt | USD 23.4M | 3.52x |
| 2024 | USD 59.7M | USD 73.3M | USD 13.6M net cash | USD -13.6M | 3.56x |
| 2023 | USD 162.8M | USD 132.9M | USD 30M net debt | USD 30M | 3.93x |
| 2022 | USD 216.6M | USD 101.9M | USD 139.3M net debt | USD 114.6M | 3.64x |
Reported net debt retains the source definition, which can deduct cash alone. Cash plus short-term investments is broader liquidity; the separately calculated column subtracts that full amount from total debt for the same fiscal period and currency. Reported net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
Management has chosen to direct nearly all available financial resources into an aggressive multi-year industrial expansion. Capital expenditures are budgeted at 12 to 14 percent of revenue in fiscal 2027, totaling approximately 283 million dollars. These funds are financing new production plants and tooling in Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, and Huntsville to support mass assembly of Switchblade munitions and LOCUST lasers. This elevated spending suppresses trailing free cash flow to roughly zero. While building automated factory capacity is necessary to fulfill major Pentagon delivery contracts, it forces shareholders to wait for cash returns. Until these modern facilities reach full commercial production around 2028, capital intensity will remain a significant drag on cash generation.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 86.2M | USD 127.7M |
| 2025 | USD 22.8M | USD 158.8M |
| 2024 | USD 24.5M | USD 159.9M |
| 2023 | USD 14.9M | USD 135M |
| 2022 | USD 22.3M | USD 113.7M |
Behind the synthesisAeroVironment: How Each Individual AI Forecaster Opinion Shapes the Global Consensus
This publication’s recorded synthesis allocated voting influence across 14 advisor opinions. The weights and rationales below are retained from that synthesis.
The analysis reveals high consensus on secular demand: modern attrition warfare permanently prioritizes loitering munitions, counter-drone defenses, and directed energy, underpinning a record 1.5 billion dollar funded backlog. However, reports diverge sharply on shareholder cash realization. Several analyses uncritically extrapolate top-line expansion into immediate multiple surges, overlooking that fiscal 2027 capital expenditures of 12 to 14 percent consume nearly all guided adjusted EBITDA, holding trailing free cash flow near zero. The strongest contrarian evaluations emphasize evidence from SEC filings: the 240.7 million dollar goodwill impairment, restatements, 747.5 million dollars in zero-coupon convertible notes maturing in 2030, and secondary distribution pressure from Arlington Capital's equity stake. Relative weights favor reports that rigorously incorporate post-merger dilution, persistent service-mix margin compression, and facility capex timing over unverified multiple-expansion narratives.
Individual targets retain their original dates. Returns and ratings use the same latest available market close and dividend assumptions as the Consensus.
All 14 opinions
Consensus weight Allocation: 13.6/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Delivers rigorous evidence-backed analysis incorporating SEC filings, restated goodwill impairments, the 2030 zero-coupon convertible notes, and persistent service-margin dilution. The balanced scenario honors genuine defense programmatic demand while soberly discounting near-term free cash flow.
The 1-year target is $178 for , with +57.63% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $233 for , with +106.92% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 12.6/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Offers superior forensic rigor by reconciling August 2026 Form 10-Q filings, contract awards, share dilution, and cash flow exclusions. Its sober assessment of valuation multiples, customer-funded development, and convertible note refinancing risks grounds the consensus.
The 1-year target is $162 for , with +44.10% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $241 for , with +114.08% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 9.7/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Provides exceptional forensic insight into peak capital expenditure intensity, private-equity sponsor lock-up distributions, and the Salt Lake City facility ramp. It properly models cash-flow suppression before operating leverage emerges, though slightly overstates terminal margin upside.
The 1-year target is $176 for , with +56.05% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $317 for , with +180.89% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 8.7/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Provides thorough documentation of funded backlogs, IDIQ vehicles, and manufacturing milestones at FreedomWerx. It appropriately weights sponsor lock-up risks, but projects an aggressive multi-year compounding path that outpaces probable defense procurement delivery pacing.
The 1-year target is $200 for , with +77.23% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $388 for , with +244.46% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 7.8/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Accurately identifies the accounting distortion stemming from non-cash purchase amortization while correctly tracking early fiscal 2027 loss narrowing. The assessment overstates near-term multiple expansion by underplaying cash conversion delays and heavy facility investments through 2028.
The 1-year target is $191 for , with +69.12% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $315 for , with +179.03% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 7.8/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Demonstrates prudent valuation discipline, correctly diagnosing that an elevated entry multiple leaves zero margin of safety against execution stumbles. However, it mischaracterizes convertible debt obligations as floating bank debt, slightly impairing its balance-sheet assessment.
The 1-year target is $166 for , with +47.42% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $235 for , with +108.31% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 5.8/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Strong technological grasp of autonomous swarming doctrine and counter-UAS physical necessities. Downweighted because the aggressive long-term price-to-sales multiple re-rating understates dilution friction, supply chain constraints, and the Space Force contract recompete risks.
The 1-year target is $173 for , with +53.00% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $338 for , with +200.11% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Sherlock Holmes AI
- Framework:
- The Whistleblower
- Mode:
- AI RESEARCHER
- AI model:
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
Consensus weight Allocation: 5.8/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Offers good deductive synthesis of pro forma organic growth, funded backlog quality, and amortization schedules. It errs by assuming overly rapid margin expansion, largely overlooking how heavy facility capex dampens free cash flow through fiscal 2028.
The 1-year target is $177 for , with +56.54% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $267 for , with +136.80% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 5.8/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Correctly assesses institutional procurement access and political capture following sponsor consolidation. However, it displays unwarranted exuberance regarding long-term operating margins and minimizes the mechanical headwind of Arlington Capital secondary equity liquidations.
The 1-year target is $187 for , with +65.93% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $280 for , with +148.62% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 4.9/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Presents sound qualitative reasoning regarding loitering munition market leadership and intangible amortization dynamics. However, the analysis ignores verified capital expenditure expansion requirements and provides an unrealistically linear margin recovery without accounting for acquired service contract drag.
The 1-year target is $187 for , with +65.93% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $330 for , with +192.98% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Superintelligence AI
- Framework:
- The Anthropologist
- Mode:
- AI THINKER
- AI model:
- Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
Consensus weight Allocation: 4.9/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Presents strong qualitative arguments on attritable loitering munition warfare doctrine. However, the path assumes an immediate multi-year multiple surge, contradicting its own documented supply-chain bottlenecks and elevated starting enterprise valuation.
The 1-year target is $205 for , with +82.20% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $401 for , with +255.63% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 4.9/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Accurately maps macroeconomic transmission, sovereign balance-sheet dynamics, and supply-chain frictions across trade barriers. It is downweighted because its quarterly price path understates the operational friction from dilutive acquired services and ongoing continuing resolutions.
The 1-year target is $180 for , with +59.61% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $267 for , with +136.76% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Superintelligence AI
- Framework:
- The Anthropologist
- Mode:
- AI RESEARCHER
- AI model:
- Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
Consensus weight Allocation: 4.9/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Correctly identifies the core organic momentum in autonomous systems and the commercial scaling of directed energy. However, it overstates long-term margin recovery speed while discounting the severe valuation drag of 2030 convertible note principal settlement.
The 1-year target is $198 for , with +75.69% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $299 for , with +165.24% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
Consensus weight Allocation: 2.9/100. Weight Allocation Rationale: Captures the strategic scope of multi-domain defense consolidation, but relies on hyperbolic assumptions of unconstrained growth and extreme multiple expansion. It severely discounts material integration headwinds, governance risks, and near-term capex cash absorption.
The 1-year target is $198 for , with +75.69% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating. The 5-year target is $360 for , with +219.30% expected return and a STRONG BUY rating.
References & Context
Research Provenance
Analysis generated by iPulse AI Engine v7 using recorded market data, operating under the editorial standards and supervision of Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief.
External references below are sources recorded by the researcher agents for this AeroVironment forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher web36 available sources from this batch (104 recorded). The first 15 are shown below; expand to read the rest.
- The U.S. Army and the Golden Dome Program | Congress.gov | Library of Congress congress.gov
- AeroVironment Inc - Form 10-K - FY2026 sec.gov
- AeroVironment Inc - Form 10-Q/A - FY2026 sec.gov
- AEROVIRONMENT, INC._August 1, 2026 sec.gov
- AeroVironment Announces Fiscal 2026 Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Results | AeroVironment, Inc. investor.avinc.com
- AeroVironment Announces Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results - AeroVironment avinc.com
- AeroVironment Announces Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Results - AeroVironment avinc.com
- AeroVironment Announces Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Results - AeroVironment avinc.com
- AV Expands Huntsville Facility to Accelerate Production of Next-Generation Freedom Eagle-1 Interceptor - AeroVironment avinc.com
- AV Partners with City of Albuquerque and State of New Mexico in Defense Manufacturing Expansion - AeroVironment avinc.com
- P550 Archives - AeroVironment avinc.com
- The fight over the FY27 defense budget is on. Here's 13 key issues for Congress to resolve. - Breaking Defense breakingdefense.com
- AVAV Stock Quote Price and Forecast | CNN cnn.com
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Has $1.5 Billion in Funded Backlog. Can Conversion Support Guidance? finance.yahoo.com
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript finance.yahoo.com
Show 21 more sources
- AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue, $1. ... finance.yahoo.com
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool fool.com
- Understanding the President’s FY 2027 Budget Request for the Department of War | Insights | Greenberg Traurig LLP gtlaw.com
- DRPM-UxS: How the Pentagon’s New Drone Office Could Reshape U.S. Unmanned Systems | IDGA Explained idga.org
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Has $1.5 Billion in Funded Backlog. Can Conversion Support Guidance? - Insider Monkey insidermonkey.com
- AeroVironment Q1 FY27 slides: record backlog, directed energy wins By Investing.com investing.com
- AeroVironment Announces Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Results | AeroVironment, Inc. investor.avinc.com
- AeroVironment, Inc. Announces Pricing of Upsized Offerings of Common Stock And 0% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030 | AeroVironment, Inc. investor.avinc.com
- AV Receives $186 Million U.S. Army Delivery Order for Next-Generation Switchblade Systems | AeroVironment, Inc. investor.avinc.com
- AV’s LOCUST® Selected for Nearly $500 million Army Counter-UAS Contract for Enduring-High Energy Laser (E-HEL) Program | AeroVironment, Inc. investor.avinc.com
- Form 10-Q for Aerovironment INC filed 09/10/2025 investor.avinc.com
- Form 10-Q/A for Aerovironment INC filed 06/22/2026 investor.avinc.com
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 marketbeat.com
- AeroVironment Secures $748 Million in Zero-Coupon Convertible Notes and New Equity | AeroVironment News & Analysis panabee.com
- AeroVironment (Nasdaq:AVAV) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St simplywall.st
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets stockanalysis.com
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Price & Overview stockanalysis.com
- AeroVironment posts record Q4 and FY 2026 results | AVAV 8-K Filing stocktitan.net
- AeroVironment Q3 loss after BlueHalo expansion | AVAV Quarterly Report (10-Q) stocktitan.net
- AVAV Stock Forecast 2026-2027 - AeroVironment, Inc. Price Targets & Predictions tickernerd.com
- AeroVironment Inc Q4 2026 earnings call transcript · VectorShift Research vectorshift.ai
68 additional sources are recorded in this batch; their citation details are not available in this publication.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
Archived context covering 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31. Its recorded scope includes technology and capital cycle; trade and industrial policy; monetary policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 13.3K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 22.7K tokens
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Archived context covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20. Its recorded scope includes monetary policy and rates; geopolitics energy and shipping; trade and industrial policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
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- File size
- 84.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.4K words
- Characters
- 84.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 21.2K tokens
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental Context Passed as Input to the Models
Time range: Annual fiscal periods: 2015-04-30–2026-04-30, 12 periods; Quarterly fiscal periods: 2023-10-31–2026-07-31, 12 periods.
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
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Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
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- Market history and corporate-action adjustments
- Eligible historical publication workspaces
Explore complete public research examples
These public assets show the complete AI Consensus research. Their findings concern those assets, not this report.
AeroVironment: forecast questions
What is AeroVironment (AVAV)'s 1-year price forecast?
AeroVironment's 1-year target is $181 for Sept 2027. The current AI rating is STRONG BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +60.52%, or +60.52% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 113, as of 6 Nov 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is AeroVironment (AVAV)'s 5-year price forecast?
AeroVironment's 5-year target is $291 for Sept 2031. The current AI rating is STRONG BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +158.07%, or +158.07% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 113, as of 6 Nov 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
How can I compare the AI opinions and audit past AeroVironment forecasts?
14 AI analysts contribute to this publication. AI Opinions shows individual advisor forecasts and reasoning. Forecast History preserves earlier published batches; their figures describe their original publication, not today's outlook.
How does an AI-generated forecast for AeroVironment differ from Wall Street analyst consensus?
Wall Street consensus aggregates estimates from human analysts. For listed companies, these typically include brokerage price targets, earnings forecasts and ratings. iPulse AI's forecast for AeroVironment is a separate AI consensus generated through its own research workflow. Different inputs, forecast dates, assumptions and weighting can therefore produce different targets.
We believe the era of investment research conducted only by human analysts is drawing to a close. Frontier models increasingly match or exceed expert work on selected professional benchmarks, including evaluations covering financial analysis. Research on multi-model synthesis also shows that combining model responses can improve on a single model's output in the tasks studied.
iPulse AI generates transparent investment research and market forecasts using a swarm of AI configurations, analytical frameworks and frontier models. The workflow applies multiple verification, challenge and synthesis layers, with selective editorial review under Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief. Published assumptions, disagreements and past forecasts remain available so readers can inspect the reasoning and audit outcomes.
For a research cycle covering 426 assets with 14 perspectives per asset, our internal workload model estimates approximately 114,000 hours of traditional analyst work. It assumes 16 hours per individual research report, 28 hours per consensus for synthesis and validation, plus shared data preparation. Parallel AI execution allows a deep-analysis cycle across hundreds of assets to complete in up to one day. The human-hours figure is an illustrative workload estimate, rather than measured time savings. Our research methodology explains the automated workflow.
If iPulse AI produces thousands of investment reports - work estimated to require over 100,000 traditional analyst hours - isn't that just "AI slop" at scale?
No. iPulse AI produces AI-generated research at scale, but the purpose is depth of analysis, comparison, and accountability. The number of reports is a consequence of the research process; it is not the goal.
iPulse AI does not produce thin copies of existing websites, articles, or investment reports. We use frontier models as an Analytical Intelligence layer. Our Financial Experts select, validate, curate, and supply the input data, including proprietary inputs, so the models work from a prepared evidence base.
In Researcher mode, models can also search the web to check current information, test assumptions, and investigate evidence that may be missing from the supplied data. This can include lobbying expenditure, management developments, regulatory decisions, or other facts relevant to a particular investment thesis. Thinker mode focuses on deep reasoning over the supplied data and context.
Our process goes much further than asking ChatGPT to evaluate a stock. Our team designs structured investment frameworks inspired by the approaches of influential investors, economists, political thinkers, and technological visionaries. These are AI analytical frameworks, not reports written or endorsed by the people who inspired them.
Each asset is analyzed separately through multiple frameworks and configurations, using specialized inputs and task instructions. Different perspectives examine different questions: valuation, business quality, technological disruption, macroeconomic conditions, political influence, financial risks, and more.
Cloud infrastructure allows these workflows to run at scale. That scale also comes with quality assurance at scale: up to 30% of report-generation attempts fail our QA checks. We rerun failed attempts until a clean report passes those checks. Users are presented only with reports that have passed QA.
This explains the volume. The value comes from what we do with the analysis.
A second layer synthesizes the individual reports into an asset-level consensus. This is where we recommend starting when researching a particular asset: it brings together the central thesis, supporting evidence, risks, and disagreements while preserving access to the underlying opinions.
We then compare assets through our proprietary iPulse AI Consensus Score, whose methodology is publicly explained. This helps users move from understanding one asset to comparing opportunities across the analyzed universe.
A further research and editorial layer examines leading candidates, checks current evidence, and develops focused Editorial Top Picks across broad-market and dedicated asset categories. Human editors review the evidence and approve each published edition. For example, explore our Best Long-Term Investments.
But the process does not end when a report is published. We preserve past forecasts so users with the relevant subscription can inspect what the system actually said and compare it with subsequent market outcomes. As more forecasts reach their target dates, the historical record becomes more useful for evaluating which approaches worked, which failed, and under what conditions.
We publish research on our website, arXiv, and Zenodo, alongside explanatory writing on Medium. We use the evidence to refine our data, frameworks, validation, and workflows, and document important findings in Lessons Learned.
The standard we ask users to judge us by is the reasoning, evidence, and historical record behind the research.
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The engine runs AI advisor configurations against a shared set of research inputs. The engine history explains the research workflow and what changed between versions.