Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS.NASDAQ) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkPrice-adjusted rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+58.9%
KTOS.NASDAQ does not currently pay dividends
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is a company whose operations and whose shareholder economics have separated. Revenue compounds near 20% organically with $2.084B of backlogbacklogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility.View full glossary entry, yet trailing operating income is roughly zero, free cash flowfree cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.View full glossary entry is minus $129M, and 21% dilutiondilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares.View full glossary entry was issued at $84.00 into a stock now at $47.50 [7][12][15]. The base case assumes the hypersonic and propulsion ramps convert, margins widen toward high-single-digit operating levels by 2029, and free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. turns positive around 2028 — while the multiple continues compressing from extreme levels toward mature defense-technology norms. Returns come from earnings growth outrunning de-rating, not from both working together.
- Revenue near $3.3-3.6B by 2031 with EBITDA marginebitda marginA profitability ratio equal to EBITDA divided by revenue.View full glossary entry approaching 14% implies roughly $480M earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges..
- At 25-28x earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges., less modest net cash, that supports an equity value near $13-14B.
- Against roughly 200 million shares after residual dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares., that cross-checks to $68-75 per share.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-14 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-26 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-20 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-28 | 21.7 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-05 | 22.9 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-21 | 20.4 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-25 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-15 | 19.24 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-04 | 19.98 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-08 | 18.47 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-20 | 17.09 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-28 | 16.36 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-21 | 15.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-25 | 18.68 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-05 | 20.2 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-13 | 18.33 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-02 | 21.3 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-14 | 19.19 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-18 | 18.86 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-08 | 13.33 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-16 | 12.58 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-28 | 14.68 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-05 | 14.69 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-17 | 13.56 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-07 | 13.97 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-15 | 13.05 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-27 | 14.02 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-12 | 15.58 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 15.65 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-05 | 11.94 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-09 | 12.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-29 | 10.54 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-03 | 10.44 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-11 | 9.57 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-31 | 11.08 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-16 | 10.16 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-28 | 9.12 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-02 | 9.90 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-22 | 9.20 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-30 | 10.32 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-19 | 10.48 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-27 | 11.25 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-04 | 12.15 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-12 | 11.38 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-04 | 13.11 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-12 | 12.69 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-20 | 12.82 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 13.43 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-13 | 13.09 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-21 | 12.76 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-19 | 14.14 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-27 | 13.25 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-31 | 13.14 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-12 | 14.35 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-24 | 14.59 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-14 | 13.18 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-18 | 13.47 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-07 | 17.04 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-11 | 16.38 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-19 | 15.20 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-04 | 15.69 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-24 | 14.37 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-02 | 14.84 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-18 | 17.30 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-30 | 16.81 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-07 | 17.79 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-15 | 18.55 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-05 | 20.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-13 | 21.2 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-21 | 20.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-02 | 19.76 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-10 | 18.27 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-03 | 17.17 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-15 | 20.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 20.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-02 | 17.98 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-18 | 17.00 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-30 | 18.37 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-23 | 17.84 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-27 | 18.79 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-01 | 18.06 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-21 | 21.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-02 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-14 | 19.80 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-30 | 19.75 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-08 | 20.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-12 | 21.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-28 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-13 | 19.73 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-25 | 22.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-06 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-18 | 23.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-26 | 23.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-12 | 25.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-16 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-01 | 22.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-13 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-17 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-15 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 25.6 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-31 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-16 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-20 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-09 | 32.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-13 | 28.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-25 | 25.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-09 | 28.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-25 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-06 | 28.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-14 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-26 | 33.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-04 | 36.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-20 | 35.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-09 | 40.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-25 | 41.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-29 | 46.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-07 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-23 | 58.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-31 | 58.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-12 | 69.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-05 | 63.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-13 | 69.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-17 | 75.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-07 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-11 | 95.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-19 | 83.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-04 | 84.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-20 | 67.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-02 | 71.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-06 | 77.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-30 | 76.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-11 | 116 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-19 | 129 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-04 | 94.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-12 | 87.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-20 | 103 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-08 | 90.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-24 | 77.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-09 | 68.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-13 | 73.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-21 | 69.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-11 | 57.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-15 | 52.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-31 | 63.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-12 | 57.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-28 | 47.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-02 | 55.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-18 | 46.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-30 | 46.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-15 | 64.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-19 | 60.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-04 | 47.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-21 | 48.6 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-23 | 46.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 45.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 47.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 45.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 48.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 47.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 50.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 52.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 51.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 54.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 56.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 57.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 60.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 58.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 61.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 63.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 64.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 66.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 65.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 67.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 69.0 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 71.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 72.5 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when cash flow and a production award arrive together. A Golden Dome or directed-energy production contract converts the $15.0B pipeline into funded backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility., the pre-built Spartan and hypersonic plant absorbs volume, and incremental gross margingross marginsThe percentage of revenue remaining after deducting the direct costs of producing goods sold.View full glossary entry lifts EBITDAearnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortizationEarnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) measures operating performance before financing, tax, and certain accounting charges.View full glossary entry faster than revenue. Positive free cash flowFree cash flow (FCF) is cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures that remains available for debt reduction, reinvestment, or shareholder returns. in 2028 then removes the dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares. overhang entirely, allowing buybacks instead of issuance. With rates easing simultaneously, both earnings and multiple expand, delivering returns well beyond the base path.
Bear case
The bear case begins with appropriations slipping and hypersonic awards descoping. Fixed costsfixed costsCosts that do not change materially with production or sales volume over a relevant range and period.View full glossary entry from newly built capacity then meet flat volumes, pushing an already 2% operating marginoperating marginsOperating profit as a percentage of revenue after operating expenses, before interest and taxes.View full glossary entry negative, while working capitalworking capitalShort-term operating capital measured as current assets minus current liabilities.View full glossary entry stays trapped in unbilled receivables. Management responds by acquiring growth or tapping the authorized share pool, diluting holders a second time below issue price. With the 10-year still near 5%, a growth stock without growth or cash re-rates toward asset value, halving the shares again.
Current crowd narrative
The consensus trade is "cheap now, after a 63% crash": shares fell from roughly $134 in January to $47.50, yet sell-side targets sit near $105-118 with 85-90% buy ratings [1][3][15]. The crowd anchors on backlogThe total value of signed contracts yet to be fulfilled, representing future revenue visibility. and the hypersonics story while treating negative free cash flownegative free cash flowA condition where cash outflows for operations and investment exceed cash generated in the period.View full glossary entry and 21% dilutionReduction in ownership percentage for existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new equity shares. as temporary growth costs. Targets stayed static while EPS estimates were cut.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly underestimates these shares, but for a different reason than the bulls claim. Consensus buys the revenue ramp; the overlooked evidence is the balance sheetbalance sheetA financial statement showing assets, liabilities, and equity at a specific point in time.View full glossary entry. After the February raise, Kratos holds roughly $1.44B of cash against 0.07 debt-to-equity [12], meaning the guided cash burncash burnThe rate at which a company consumes its cash reserves to fund operations before achieving profitability.View full glossary entry is voluntary capacity investment, not distress. The market is pricing execution risk twice, through both a compressed multiple and a burn discount. The offsetting blind spot bulls ignore is that management issued at $84 and can issue again.
Convergence catalyst
The decisive trigger is the February 2027 fourth-quarter release with initial FY2027 guidance quantifying hypersonics above $700M and a narrowing free cash outflow. The first observable sign of repricing is adjusted EBITDAadjusted ebitdaEBITDA modified to exclude selected items that management considers non-recurring or not representative of ongoing operations.View full glossary entry growth exceeding revenue growth, confirming that the pre-built plant is finally absorbing volume rather than consuming it.
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