Compare multi-agent consensus ratings, forecast paths, AI price targets, expected return, fundamentals, analyst disagreement, risks, and the investment thesis across short- and long-term horizons.

2FE.FRA

Ferrari

Consumer Cyclical | Auto Manufacturers

Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in design, engineering, production, and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. It offers sports, track, one-off, and road cars, as well as supercars.... MoreShow less

Flagship Insight

Why This Elite Luxury Asset Faces A Silent Valuation Multiple Compression

Input reports show high consensus regarding the asset's exceptional pricing power and structural margin resilience. However, sharp divergence exists concerning the valuation multiple's sustainability under restrictive monetary policy and the long-term brand impact of the electric vehicle transition, which presents a key terminal value risk.

Forecast TimelineUpdated On Jul 03 2026

Ferrari (2FE) Stock Forecast and AI Rating

Recommendation

No Action - Keep Monitoring

Only one horizon is positive; wait for broader confirmation.

2027

1-Year

NEUTRAL

€356

+6.1%

+9.3% IF INCL. DIVS

2029

3-Year

N/A

€431

+33%

2031

5-Year

BUY

€517

+54%

+65% IF INCL. DIVS

LATEST DEEP FORECAST ANALYSIS BY iPULSE AI ENGINE | Jul 05, 2026

Visionary, Superintelligence, Insider, Strategist, Value Seeker, Vulture, Whistleblower, and more.

Elon Musk (Visionary), Superintelligence (Anthropologist), Machiavelli (Insider), Ray Dalio (Strategist), Warren Buffett (Value Purist), Michael Burry (Vulture), Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower).

Research support only. We don't give financial advice.

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Investment Thesis Takeaway

Expert LanguageExpert Quant Language

Explained Simply

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Expert Language

Explained Simply

The core investment thesis centers on the tension between unassailable operational compounding and inevitable valuation multiple compression. Operating as a Veblen-good monopoly, the business leverages artificial scarcity and hyper-personalization to insulate earnings from macroeconomic volatility. However, trading at an elevated multiple, the equity faces structural headwinds from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment and the capital-intensive transition to electric powertrains.

Key insights

Absolute pricing power and bespoke customization programs drive structural margin expansion independent of unit volume growth.
The capital-expenditure cycle for electrification is peaking, which should accelerate free cash flow generation over the medium term.
A multi-billion share repurchase program establishes a mechanical floor under the equity, systematically concentrating per-share value.
The transition to electric vehicles introduces execution risks, specifically the potential dilution of the brand's acoustic and mechanical heritage.
Restrictive monetary policy and rising discount rates apply ongoing gravitational pressure on the stock's premium valuation multiple.
Geopolitical fragmentation and tariff exposures in key markets like North America present localized margin and volume frictions.
Sophisticated quants should focus on the inflection of industrial free cash flow as major infrastructure investments conclude.

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AI Consensus

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Company Profile

Ferrari quarterly forecast scenarios

One row per forecast quarter. Asset scenario targets are shown in EUR; benchmark values are shown in USD.

Quarterly Bear Case, Base Case, Bull Case, and S&P 500 benchmark forecasts for Ferrari, including EUR/USD currency conversion forecasts.
Quarter	Forecast date	Bear Case (EUR)	Base Case (EUR)	Bull Case (EUR)	S&P 500 benchmark (USD)	Currency conversion forecast (EUR/USD)
Quarter 1+3M	Oct 03, 2026	€314.90	€338.91	€355.10	$736.09	1.1229
Quarter 2+6M	Jan 03, 2027	€286.56	€343.57	€369.30	$724.14	1.1119
Quarter 3+9M	Apr 03, 2027	€252.17	€344.88	€380.38	$713.57	1.1011
Quarter 4+1Y	Jul 03, 2027	€232.00	€350.62	€399.40	$723.38	1.1013
Quarter 5+15M	Oct 03, 2027	€222.72	€355.58	€392.02	$716.61	1.1013
Quarter 6+18M	Jan 03, 2028	€227.17	€364.79	€407.07	$738.34	1.1016
Quarter 7+21M	Apr 03, 2028	€236.26	€373.23	€427.42	$746.91	1.1058
Quarter 8+2Y	Jul 03, 2028	€243.35	€382.54	€440.25	$771.93	1.1079
Quarter 9+27M	Oct 03, 2028	€238.48	€389.55	€436.44	$782.73	1.1121
Quarter 10+30M	Jan 03, 2029	€250.40	€405.45	€457.76	$807.31	1.1138
Quarter 11+33M	Apr 03, 2029	€260.42	€414.27	€470.77	$822.72	1.1162
Quarter 12+3Y	Jul 03, 2029	€268.23	€419.43	€484.89	$846.10	1.1220
Quarter 13+39M	Oct 03, 2029	€273.60	€430.62	€495.93	$852.53	1.1263
Quarter 14+42M	Jan 03, 2030	€284.54	€445.48	€520.73	$882.91	1.1278
Quarter 15+45M	Apr 03, 2030	€293.08	€454.56	€531.15	$900.46	1.1296
Quarter 16+4Y	Jul 03, 2030	€298.94	€465.39	€552.39	$922.67	1.1291
Quarter 17+51M	Oct 03, 2030	€289.97	€475.55	€568.96	$935.91	1.1320
Quarter 18+54M	Jan 03, 2031	€304.47	€491.49	€591.72	$952.30	1.1343
Quarter 19+57M	Apr 03, 2031	€316.65	€504.31	€603.56	$976.28	1.1349
Quarter 20+5Y	Jul 03, 2031	€326.15	€517.44	€627.70	$1,002	1.1376

Alpha Gap and Advisor Disagreement

Alpha Gap

The core information gap lies in the market's category error and its misunderstanding of the upcoming product transition. While the crowd evaluates the asset as a standard automaker subject to cyclical credit conditions, it is actually a Veblen-good monopoly functioning as a hard-asset store of value. However, the market is ignoring the profound risks of the electric vehicle transition. The brand's mythology is built on the acoustic and mechanical theater of internal combustion engines; a silent electric vehicle risks cultural dilution and customer rejection. Additionally, the crowd overlooks the imminent inflection in industrial free cash flow as heavy infrastructure spending rolls off, which will fund aggressive share buybacks. The variant perception recognizes that while the underlying business remains structurally flawless, the current premium multiple is highly vulnerable to compression under a higher-for-longer interest rate regime.

Advisor Disagreement

The primary disagreement across the reports centers on the valuation multiple's resilience and the commercial viability of the electric vehicle transition. Some perspectives argue that the stock's premium multiple is a zero-interest-rate artifact primed for severe contraction as interest rates remain structurally higher. Others contend that the company's exceptional return on equity and cash flow durability fully justify the premium. Additionally, views clash on whether the new electric vehicle will seamlessly attract a tech-wealthy demographic or face rejection from traditional purists, diluting the brand's core identity.

Financial Reviews by iPulse AI

Earnings and financials

The company shows an incredibly strong financial track record, with revenues and net income growing steadily over the past decade. Analysts agree that the business is a cash-generating powerhouse, with free cash flow recently surging by fifty percent. This financial strength is driven by wealthy customers who are happy to pay extra for highly customized cars, making the company's earnings very stable even during global economic slowdowns. However, there is some disagreement about the future growth rate. Some experts warn that earnings growth is starting to slow down, pointing to flat unit sales and rising research costs as signs of pressure. Others believe that the massive share buyback program will easily offset any slowdown by reducing the number of shares and boosting earnings per share. Overall, the consensus is that the business remains highly profitable, but the stock's high price leaves little room for mistakes.

Profitability and margins

The company boasts spectacular profit margins, with gross margins exceeding fifty percent and operating margins hovering near thirty percent. These are elite luxury-brand numbers, not typical car company margins. This incredible profitability is driven by the company's ability to raise prices and sell highly customized, expensive options. However, there is a clear clash of opinions regarding whether these margins have peaked. Cautious analysts argue that the transition to electric vehicles will naturally drag margins down because batteries and electric parts are expensive to develop and produce. They also point to new import tariffs as a threat to profitability. On the other hand, optimistic views suggest that the high demand for custom options and limited-edition models will easily absorb these extra costs, keeping profit margins stable or even pushing them higher in the coming years.

Balance sheet and leverage

The company's balance sheet is described as an absolute fortress, offering incredible safety for investors. Debt levels are extremely low, and the company has plenty of cash on hand to cover its obligations many times over. This financial safety is highly praised across all reports, especially in today's environment of high interest rates and tight credit. Because the company can easily fund all of its operations and new technology developments using its own cash, it does not need to borrow expensive money from banks. This independence gives management great flexibility. They can confidently run their massive share buyback program and weather any temporary economic storms without any risk of financial distress. There is virtually no disagreement on this point; the balance sheet is universally seen as a major source of strength and downside protection.

Capex and investment intensity

The company's spending on new equipment and technology has increased significantly, rising to about thirteen to fifteen percent of its revenue. This heavy spending was necessary to build the new state-of-the-art facility in Maranello and develop electric car technology. Experts agree that this was a smart, defensive move to prepare for future environmental regulations. However, opinions differ on what this means for the company's near-term cash flow. Some analysts believe that because the major construction is now complete, this heavy spending will quickly drop, leading to a massive surge in free cash flow that can be returned to shareholders. Others are more cautious, arguing that supporting both traditional engines and new electric systems at the same time will keep spending high and drag on profitability for several more years.