AI Consensus Investment Thesis
D: Dominion Energy Stock Price, Analysis & Forecast: 1 Year and 5 Year Targets
Dominion Energy: 1-Year and 5-Year Forecast Outlook and Rating
Dominion Energy (D) has an immediate Buy & Keep consensus AI recommendation, based on 14 AI analysts.
The 1-year target is $67.7 for , with +7.73% expected return (+10.65% including net dividends) and a BUY rating.
The 5-year target is $90.6 for , with +44.18% expected return (+66.50% including net dividends) and a BUY rating.
Latest available market price: USD 62.8, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 2.97%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 4.25% · Two-year annualized gross: 4.25%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Original published assumption: 3.5% per year.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
Targets retain their original publication dates. Returns use the dated market close and the time remaining to each fixed target date. Current ratings also require fresh quotes and analysis, with more than 90 days remaining. Past targets have no forward return. Eligibility checked .
Dominion Energy Flagship Insight
Regulated Power Monopoly Monetizes Explosive Computing Demand Beneath Pending Merger Arbitrage
Research reveals sharp divergence regarding balance-sheet leverage and cash burn, yet confirms high consensus on structural advantages powering Data Center Alley. Statutory cost-recovery riders and expanding large-load tariffs convert massive grid spending into compounding rate-base earnings, while pending merger integration offers substantial financing and scale relief.
How were the Investment Thesis and Forecasts created?
14 AI advisors, guided by 9 analytical frameworks, contribute to the deep analysis by iPulse AI Engine.
Universal Investor (Polymath)
Michael Burry (Vulture)
Machiavelli (Insider)
Warren Buffett (Value Purist)
Superintelligence (Anthropologist)
J.P. Morgan (Titan)
Sherlock Holmes (Whistleblower)
Elon Musk (Visionary)
Ray Dalio (Strategist)
Ran across these frontier AI models
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash
Latest published deep-analysis batch. Audit published forecasts in full transparency
Dominion Energy: forecast questions
What is Dominion Energy (D)'s 1-year price forecast?
Dominion Energy's 1-year target is $67.7 for Sept 2027. The current AI rating is BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +7.73%, or +10.65% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 62.8, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is Dominion Energy (D)'s 5-year price forecast?
Dominion Energy's 5-year target is $90.6 for Sept 2031. The current AI rating is BUY. The expected return from the recorded close is +44.18%, or +66.50% modeled return including net dividends. Latest available market price: USD 62.8, as of 20 Oct 2026. The target date is fixed; this is not a new rolling forecast.
What is the return basis?
Latest available market price: USD 62.8, as of 20 Oct 2026. These are model projections, not guaranteed future prices.
How can I compare the AI opinions and audit past Dominion Energy forecasts?
14 AI analysts contribute to this publication. AI Opinions shows individual advisor forecasts and reasoning. Forecast History preserves earlier published batches; their figures describe their original publication, not today's outlook.
How does an AI-generated forecast for Dominion Energy differ from Wall Street analyst consensus?
Wall Street consensus aggregates estimates from human analysts. For listed companies, these typically include brokerage price targets, earnings forecasts and ratings. iPulse AI's forecast for Dominion Energy is a separate AI consensus generated through its own research workflow. Different inputs, forecast dates, assumptions and weighting can therefore produce different targets.
We believe the era of investment research conducted only by human analysts is drawing to a close. Frontier models increasingly match or exceed expert work on selected professional benchmarks, including evaluations covering financial analysis. Research on multi-model synthesis also shows that combining model responses can improve on a single model's output in the tasks studied.
iPulse AI generates transparent investment research and market forecasts using a swarm of AI configurations, analytical frameworks and frontier models. The workflow applies multiple verification, challenge and synthesis layers, with selective editorial review under Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief. Published assumptions, disagreements and past forecasts remain available so readers can inspect the reasoning and audit outcomes.
For a research cycle covering 426 assets with 14 perspectives per asset, our internal workload model estimates approximately 114,000 hours of traditional analyst work. It assumes 16 hours per individual research report, 28 hours per consensus for synthesis and validation, plus shared data preparation. Parallel AI execution allows a deep-analysis cycle across hundreds of assets to complete in up to one day. The human-hours figure is an illustrative workload estimate, rather than measured time savings. Our research methodology explains the automated workflow.
Dominion Energy: Investment Thesis Summary
Dotted terms link to the glossary; hover or focus for a preview. Browse technical terms
If you invest $10,000 in Dominion Energy at the latest market close (20 Oct 2026): $16,650 by Sept 2031 versus $13,751 for S&P 500 benchmark.
Returns use the same dated market close, fixed targets and remaining dividend period as the forecast table.
* Return is calculated incl. 3.0% net dividend yield for Dominion Energy.
The fundamental investment case centers on an unmatched geographic monopoly over global digital infrastructure power demand. Operating at the epicenter of Northern Virginia's computational corridor, the utility converts multi-gigawatt interconnection queues into formulaic rate-base compounding under supportive regulatory rider mechanisms. While elevated five-percent benchmark interest rates and acute trailing free cash flow deficits pressure standalone valuation multiples, statutory cost recovery protects authorized returns on equity near ten percent. The pending all-stock combination establishes a definitive valuation bridge, providing immediate balance-sheet de-risking and lower debt financing costs across an expansive multi-year capital expenditure pipeline.
Key insights
- Statutory capital riders decouple rate-base expansion from protracted rate reviews, converting front-loaded transmission spending directly into compounding regulated operating net income.
- Tailored large-load tariff classes compel hyperscalers to absorb transmission upgrade expenses, preventing residential cross-subsidization friction while insulating corporate earned return on equity.
- Fixed exchange-ratio merger terms establish an explicit arbitrage valuation floor, mitigating standalone cash-burn vulnerabilities through prospective single-A credit rating equalization.
Dominion Energy: 5 Year Consensus Forecast
20 quarterly price targets, returns and rationale, with advisor range and benchmark
Forward returns are updated using the latest market close price of USD 62.8, as of 20 Oct 2026.
Dividend calculation details
Calculated net annual dividend yield: 2.97%. As of 2026-10-20.
Gross TTM: 4.25% · Two-year annualized gross: 4.25%.
Tax withholding assumption: 30% (US). One-off special payments are excluded.
Original published assumption: 3.5% per year.
Return estimates compound the net annual yield at a constant rate over the stated return horizon (the remaining time to the fixed target date for current returns): (1 + price return) × (1 + net annual yield)years − 1.
The consensus target follows an expert-weighted price path synthesized from 14 AI advisor opinions. See Opinion weights and rationale for the exact allocation and reasoning.
Forecast methodology and reference values
Published targets are anchored on 18 Sept 2026 at USD 63.6. Original quarter-to-quarter target changes are retained. Forward returns use the remaining time to each fixed target date.
The pessimistic and optimistic advisor base cases are the lowest and highest published advisor base-case targets for each quarter. The advisor at either extreme can change between quarters. Benchmark values are in USD.
Scroll the table horizontally to read every column.
| Quarter | Evidence-Weighted Consensus Price Path | Individual Advisor Range & Reference Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus target (USD) | Forecast quarter-to-quarter price change | Forward price return | Forward return incl. net dividends | Forecast rationale | Pessimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | Optimistic Advisor Base Case (USD) | S&P 500 benchmark (USD) | |
| $64.1 | +0.77% | +2.01% | +2.49% | Elevated sovereign bond yields cap immediate utility multiple expansion, but solid third-quarter regulated operating earnings and steady commercial data center load additions narrow the merger arbitrage discount, supporting modest initial price appreciation. | $61.0 | $64.9 | $750 | |
| $65.5 | +2.24% | +4.23% | +5.49% | State regulatory hearings advance constructively while implementation of dedicated large-load tariffs secures high capacity commitments from hyperscalers. Progress on offshore wind installations reassures institutional allocators, driving steady quarterly equity compounding. | $58.0 | $67.4 | $736 | |
| $66.9 | +2.12% | +6.46% | +8.54% | Evidentiary filings clarify customer bill-credit packages, dampening political intervention risk and compressing transaction spreads. Accelerating commercial power delivery across Northern Virginia buffers operating margins against ongoing corporate debt refinancing costs. | $56.2 | $69.5 | $743 | |
| $67.7 | +1.19% | +7.73% | +10.65% | Anticipation of final state commission rulings and commercial synchronization of offshore wind substations reduce execution uncertainty. Heavy summer transmission throughput drives solid revenue gains, propelling share prices closer to implied exchange value. | $54.0 | $71.6 | $755 | |
| $69.5 | +2.66% | +10.60% | +14.43% | Regulatory approvals clear key binary hurdles with manageable concessions, while offshore wind reaches mechanical completion. Elimination of major project and transaction overhangs unlocks decisive multiple re-rating and strong quarterly performance. | $52.9 | $75.1 | $776 | |
| $70.5 | +1.47% | +12.19% | +16.92% | Consolidated guidance outlines healthy operational synergies and procurement savings, though arbitrage capital outflows and restrictive interest rates create modest valuation friction. Expanding rate-base earnings provide underlying fundamental support across winter operations. | $54.0 | $78.1 | $787 | |
| $72.3 | +2.47% | +15.05% | +20.80% | Offshore wind assets transition smoothly toward full commercial operation, activating statutory rider recovery. Credit rating stability and robust commercial power sales from expanding computing clusters drive healthy quarterly earnings growth. | $54.5 | $80.5 | $803 | |
| $73.7 | +2.06% | +17.28% | +24.05% | Record summer cooling demand and intensive computational workloads across Mid-Atlantic corridors generate exceptional transmission throughput. Regulated tariff structures successfully pass through infrastructure investments, sustaining solid operating margins and equity momentum. | $55.6 | $82.1 | $812 | |
| $75.5 | +2.37% | +20.15% | +28.01% | Annual regulatory reviews affirm capital recovery schedules, while stabilizing macroeconomic inflation begins softening sovereign yield headwinds. Reinvestment into transmission modernization supports an announced dividend increase, attracting defensive income-oriented institutional capital. | $56.2 | $84.6 | $839 | |
| $76.5 | +1.37% | +21.74% | +30.64% | Full-year operational disclosures confirm robust operating earnings expansion, driven by high-load-factor computing customers. Maturing legacy debt is refinanced under normalized credit spreads, easing annual interest expense burdens and preserving steady compounding. | $57.3 | $86.2 | $851 | |
| $78.0 | +1.87% | +24.12% | +34.19% | Energization of high-voltage transmission lines unlocks backlogged hyperscale interconnections, converting capital expenditures into productive rate-base earnings. Clean baseload generation from nuclear and offshore wind assets shields quarterly margins from fuel volatility. | $57.9 | $88.0 | $872 | |
| $79.4 | +1.84% | +26.35% | +37.61% | Sustained artificial intelligence power demand drives commercial electricity sales well above historical sector averages. High grid availability and effective cost-allocation tariffs protect residential affordability, maintaining excellent regulatory relationships and steady valuation. | $58.4 | $90.6 | $886 | |
| $80.9 | +1.85% | +28.74% | +41.24% | Management updates multi-year capital blueprints, demonstrating sustained rate-base compounding above eight percent. Narrowing free cash flow deficits and disciplined balance-sheet stewardship reinforce investor conviction, prompting moderate year-end equity multiple expansion. | $59.6 | $92.4 | $910 | |
| $82.3 | +1.76% | +30.97% | +44.73% | Fourth-quarter financial results highlight resilient commercial billing demand across Virginia and the Carolinas. Easing monetary policy benchmarks enhance relative dividend yield appeal, driving consistent defensive portfolio inflows into high-grade regulated utility assets. | $60.2 | $94.3 | $916 | |
| $83.7 | +1.71% | +33.20% | +48.28% | PJM regional capacity market auctions deliver attractive clearing prices, rewarding reliable baseload generation assets. Rider-backed distribution modernization enters service on schedule, generating predictable statutory cash flows and supporting quarterly price appreciation. | $60.8 | $95.2 | $937 | |
| $85.1 | +1.67% | +35.42% | +51.88% | Summer peak electricity consumption tests grid hardening investments successfully, validating multi-year capital outlays. Constructive regulatory reviews reward outstanding system reliability metrics, sustaining durable operating margins through seasonal peak cooling periods. | $60.8 | $97.1 | $947 | |
| $86.5 | +1.61% | +37.65% | +55.51% | Biennial rate reviews conclude constructively, reaffirming authorized returns on equity near ten percent. Declining capital expenditure intensity improves corporate cash flow conversion, enabling management to reaffirm long-term dividend growth commitments. | $61.4 | $99.1 | $970 | |
| $87.9 | +1.63% | +39.88% | +59.17% | Reporting of full-year performance confirms sustained multi-year earnings compounding across regulated territories. Progress on subsequent nuclear license extensions and advanced grid automation enhances long-term rate-base visibility, anchoring stable equity appreciation. | $62.0 | $100 | $980 | |
| $89.3 | +1.63% | +42.11% | +62.90% | Commercial energization of new enterprise digital infrastructure maintains healthy industrial load expansion. Operational efficiencies and tighter corporate credit spreads expand net profit margins, sustaining steady equity gains despite broader late-cycle economic moderation. | $62.6 | $102 | $1,000 | |
| $90.6 | +1.41% | +44.18% | +66.50% | The five-year investment horizon concludes with major clean generation and transmission buildouts fully operational. A modern, rate-regulated asset base delivers high-quality cash earnings, establishing an enduring valuation floor and cementing solid through-cycle shareholder returns. | $63.3 | $103 | $1,012 | |
Show remaining 18 quartersShow first 2 quarters only
All 20 quarters are displayed in the table above.
Dominion Energy Stock Analysis & Scenarios Deep Dive
Dominion Energy: Alpha Gap & Repricing Catalysts
Market Narrative
What does the market currently expect? Prevailing market consensus treats the company as an encumbered, capital-hungry bond proxy trapped beneath a restrictive interest rate regime. Investors fixate on multi-billion-dollar negative free cash flow, execution hazards at offshore wind projects, and political resistance to consumer rate increases. The crowd largely assumes that heavy debt burdens and regulatory friction will neutralize the earnings benefits of Northern Virginia's unprecedented artificial intelligence load surge.
Alpha Gap
What is the biggest difference between market expectations and our AI forecasts? The crowd underestimates value, creating an unwarranted pricing discount against long-term earning power. The market mistakenly interprets heavy capital expenditures as value-destroying cash burn, ignoring that Virginia's statutory rider mechanisms immediately convert transmission and clean-energy investments into legally protected rate base earning nearly ten percent returns on equity. Furthermore, specialized large-load tariffs require hyperscalers to pre-fund dedicated infrastructure, insulating residential bills from cross-subsidization. Investors also discount the pending merger's balance-sheet de-risking, creating an asymmetric mispricing against durable regulated rate-base compounding.
Repricing Catalyst
What could make the market recognize and close that gap? The primary catalyst is formal regulatory approval of the pending combination by the Virginia State Corporation Commission alongside Carolinas and federal clearances across 2027. Approval with balanced ratepayer concessions will definitively collapse the merger arbitrage spread. Concurrently, full commercial grid energization of the 2.6-gigawatt offshore wind project by late 2027 will convert work-in-progress capital expenditures into active, cash-generating rate base, forcing institutional investors to re-price underlying earnings durability.
Dominion Energy: Sentiment and Timing
What do sentiment, volatility, and the market-recognition cycle suggest about the thesis timing?
- Greed and Fear Sentiment
- Mixed
- Volatility Regime
- Moderate
- Convergence Cycle Position
- Growing Awareness
Sentiment divides sharply over balance-sheet risk. Cautious perspectives highlight five-percent interest rates and chronic cash burn as severe structural drags. Optimistic views see growing awareness of monopolistic data center demand and rate-base compounding, setting up a binary repricing window around 2027 regulatory milestones.
Macro Regime Fit
Does the current market environment support the thesis? The macroeconomic backdrop is a mixed setup. A restrictive monetary regime and ten-year Treasury yields near five percent act as a persistent headwind for debt refinancing and utility equity valuation multiples. However, structural demand from artificial intelligence computing and statutory rider mechanisms provide an offsetting tailwind, insulating authorized capital returns from cyclical inflation.
Advisor Disagreement
What do our AI Advisors disagree about most? The core debate centers on corporate destiny and balance-sheet absorption: will Dominion successfully close into NextEra Energy's lower-cost capital structure, or remain a standalone utility struggling under a five-percent interest rate regime? Bulls argue that Virginia's statutory riders and dedicated large-load tariffs guarantee rate-base compounding and margin protection regardless of merger outcome. Bears contend that negative $6.8 billion free cash flow and persistent equity dilution will cannibalize per-share earnings growth. This conflict will be resolved by the Virginia State Corporation Commission's final merger order and commercial offshore wind cost filings in 2027.
Dominion Energy: Critical Influencing Factors
Near-certain positive forcesTop Drivers & Tailwinds
Near-certain forces that support the investment thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Driver / Tailwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperscale data center load expansion | Sector And Industry | +22% | +26% | Dominion commands Northern Virginia's Data Center Alley, where contracted computing capacity exceeds 50 gigawatts. Weather-normalized commercial electricity sales expand above 5% annually, driven by generative AI inference clustering. This non-cyclical load surge accelerates transmission rate-base investments under statutory cost-recovery riders, generating durable, compounding operating earnings despite broader macroeconomic deceleration. |
| Rider-backed capital deployment compounding | Capital Allocation | +16% | +20% | Management is deploying a $65 billion five-year infrastructure plan, with approximately 74% qualifying for expedited statutory rider recovery in Virginia. By bypassing protracted general rate cases, capital investments convert rapidly into recognized rate base earning authorized returns on equity near 9.8%. This formulaic compounding steadily expands regulated net income despite near-term cash flow deficits. |
| Definitive merger combination scale advantages | Competitive Positioning | +15% | +14% | The agreed all-stock merger at a 0.8138 exchange ratio establishes the continent's largest regulated electric platform. Combining balance sheets provides unmatched procurement leverage, lowers corporate debt financing spreads, and unlocks substantial operational synergies. Even navigating closing conditions, the transaction establishes an implicit valuation floor anchored by NextEra's premium trading multiple and balance-sheet capacity. |
| Offshore wind rate-base commercialization | Operational Efficiency | +11% | +14% | The 2.6-gigawatt Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project has surpassed 80% construction completion, advancing toward full commercial synchronization by late 2027. Supported by a 50% Stonepeak partnership and statutory cost recovery, completed installations convert an $11.7 billion work-in-progress capital program into an earning regulated rate base, locking in long-term zero-fuel-cost baseload returns. |
Near-certain negative forcesTop Frictions & Headwinds
Near-certain forces that could slow, cap, or damage the thesis. These forces are treated as part of the base case (more than 60% probability of occurrence). Impact columns are specific to this asset class.
Scroll to view all columns
| Friction / Headwind | Category | Est. stock-price impact | Est. earnings impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated interest rate refinancing drag | Macroeconomic And Macrofinancial | -15% | -11% | With benchmark ten-year Treasury yields hovering near 5.0% and Federal Reserve policy rates restrictive, utility capital costs remain elevated. Rolling maturing debt into higher-coupon notes increases corporate interest expenses, compressing interest coverage ratios from 2.79x. High sovereign yields also force utility equity valuation multiples to compress, reducing investor appetite for capital-intensive dividend yields. |
| Chronic negative free cash flow | Capital Allocation | -12% | -9.0% | Sustained capital expenditure intensity exceeding 75% of revenue generates recurring annual free cash flow deficits near $7 billion. Covering construction outlays alongside $2.3 billion in annual common dividends requires continuous external debt and equity issuance. This ongoing financing gap dilutes per-share compounding, restricts near-term dividend growth, and heightens balance-sheet vulnerability during credit dislocations. |
| Ratepayer affordability and regulatory concessions | Regulatory | -10% | -11% | Escalating residential electric bills have provoked political scrutiny across Virginia and the Carolinas. Regulators and consumer advocacy groups actively resist subsidizing commercial data center grid enhancements, forcing Dominion to offer $2.25 billion in merger-related customer bill credits. Heightened regulatory pushback risks tightening authorized returns on equity or imposing cost-allocation caps that constrain margin extraction. |
| Offshore wind supply and tariff overruns | Operational Efficiency | -8.0% | -8.0% | Executing the massive offshore wind array exposes Dominion to specialized maritime vessel bottlenecks, weather contingencies, and import tariffs on electrical hardware. Budget revisions have already pushed project costs to $11.7 billion. Because statutory risk-sharing agreements leave 50% of cost overruns above baseline thresholds unrecoverable from ratepayers, further delays threaten direct shareholder equity write-downs. |
Dominion Energy: What Could Break or Accelerate the Thesis
Event Risk Score: Low 24/100Asset-level relative pressure from clustered consensus frictions and tail risks. This is not the probability or risk score of an individual force.Plausible downside scenariosTail Risks
Tail yet plausible downside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| State regulatory veto of merger combination | 28% | -21% | The Virginia State Corporation Commission or Carolinas regulators could formally reject the NextEra merger in 2027, citing consumer concentration and ratepayer concerns. Deal termination would instantly liquidate merger arbitrage positioning, forcing Dominion to trade on standalone levered fundamentals. The company would face acute credit-rating downgrade pressure and required equity dilution to self-fund its $65 billion capital plan. |
| Catastrophic offshore wind marine installation impairment | 19% | -24% | A severe Atlantic hurricane or structural turbine foundation failure during the late-stage 2027 offshore installation campaign could inflict catastrophic physical damage on monopiles or cabling. Because Virginia's regulatory risk-sharing framework disallows recovery for expenditures exceeding prudence caps, Dominion would absorb direct multi-hundred-million-dollar equity write-downs and prolonged regulatory litigation, severely impairing earnings and dividend coverage. |
Plausible upside scenariosTail Opportunities
Tail yet plausible upside scenarios selected for their highest potential impact.
Scroll to view all columns
| Tail scenario | Chance of Occurring | Stock Price Impact | Why plausible / what changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unconditional merger clearance and rating upgrade | 36% | +22% | State utility commissions in Virginia and the Carolinas, alongside federal authorities, could grant clean, unconditional approval for the NextEra combination ahead of schedule in 2027. Immediate consummation would collapse the merger arbitrage spread and trigger credit rating upgrades toward single-A. Lower consolidated corporate borrowing spreads would reduce annual interest expense by over $250 million, driving accelerated equity re-rating. |
| Direct hyperscaler nuclear power contracting | 28% | +18% | Tech hyperscalers seeking continuous carbon-free baseload power could negotiate direct behind-the-meter or sleeved power purchase agreements for Dominion's nuclear fleet at substantial premiums to wholesale rates by 2028. Bypassing traditional regulated rate caps, these bilateral agreements would inject hundreds of millions in high-margin cash flow, unlocking dormant valuation optionality across zero-carbon baseload generation assets. |
Company Financial AnalysisDominion Energy: Earnings and Financials Analysis by AI
Financial figures available as of Sep 20, 2026. Only filings and source records available by this analysis date are included. View latest Dominion Energy financials here.
Earnings and financials
Dominion's top-line business is growing steadily as power demand surges across Northern Virginia. Revenue rose over 14% in fiscal 2025 to $16.51 billion, and operating profits climbed 36% as new power lines entered service. While reported accounting profits swung sharply due to non-cash charges on clean fuel assets and hedging adjustments, core operating earnings expanded reliably to $0.79 per share in mid-2026. Beneath the strong revenues, the company is spending heavily to build grid capacity before receiving customer payments. The crucial takeaway for everyday investors is that core utility earnings are solid and protected by state regulation, even though large upfront construction spending temporarily obscures underlying cash generation.
Revenue, earnings, and cash flow
The table compares up to five fiscal years of revenue, net income, and free cash flow available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 16.5B | USD 3B | USD -7.3B |
| 2024 | USD 14.5B | USD 2.1B | USD -7.4B |
| 2023 | USD 14.4B | USD 2B | USD -3.7B |
| 2022 | USD 13.9B | USD 1.2B | USD -3.9B |
| 2021 | USD 11.4B | USD 3.4B | USD -1.9B |
Valuation context: historical P/E
The table compares up to five fiscal years of point-in-time valuation evidence available to this analysis.
| Fiscal year | P/E | Earnings basis | Currency basis | Ticker / reporting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.7x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2024 | 24.6x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2023 | 20.1x | TTM | Native | USD / USD |
| 2022 | 43.0x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
| 2021 | 18.7x | Annual | Native | USD / USD |
P/E uses historical market capitalization and earnings known at each period. Cross-currency observations are normalized to USD using point-in-time FX rates.
Profitability and margins
Profitability has rebounded significantly following years of corporate restructuring. Operating margins expanded to 26.7% in 2025, up from under 11% during earlier operational lows, while return on equity recovered to 10.31%. This widening profitability is driven by approved rate increases in Virginia and South Carolina and booming electricity sales to power-hungry computing facilities. These healthy profit margins are structurally insulated rather than temporary. By establishing specialized large-load tariffs that require tech giants to fund dedicated transmission upgrades, state regulators protect utility margins from rising inflation. This regulatory compact ensures expanding power demand translates cleanly into dependable corporate profits.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of operating income and reported profitability margins.
| Fiscal year | Operating income | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 4.4B | 26.7% | 18.2% |
| 2024 | USD 3.2B | 22.5% | 14.7% |
| 2023 | USD 3.4B | 23.7% | 14.1% |
| 2022 | USD 1.4B | 10.4% | 8.5% |
| 2021 | USD 2B | 17.5% | 29.8% |
Balance sheet and leverage
Dominion's balance sheet carries the heavy debt load typical of large infrastructure companies, holding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.68 across $116 billion in assets. With interest rates near 5%, refinancing maturing debt is more expensive and keeps interest coverage at a modest 2.79 times. Selling off non-core natural gas distribution assets provided helpful cash, but ongoing construction leaves little room for operating mistakes. The proposed all-stock merger with NextEra Energy serves as an essential financial backstop. Combining with an industry titan promises to lower borrowing costs, boost credit ratings toward single-A, and ensure ample capital to complete the company's ambitious construction pipeline without threatening shareholder dividends.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of debt, liquidity, net cash or debt, and current-ratio evidence.
| Fiscal year | Total debt | Cash + short-term investments | Reported net cash / (debt) | Debt less (cash + short-term investments), calculated | Current ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 48.9B | USD 250M | USD 48.7B net debt | USD 48.7B | 0.77x |
| 2024 | USD 41.8B | USD 310M | USD 41.4B net debt | USD 41.4B | 0.71x |
| 2023 | USD 44.2B | USD 184M | USD 44.1B net debt | USD 44.1B | 1.04x |
| 2022 | USD 41.2B | USD 119M | USD 41.1B net debt | USD 41.1B | 0.73x |
| 2021 | USD 40.6B | USD 283M | USD 40.3B net debt | USD 40.3B | 0.84x |
Reported net debt retains the source definition, which can deduct cash alone. Cash plus short-term investments is broader liquidity; the separately calculated column subtracts that full amount from total debt for the same fiscal period and currency. Reported net debt below zero is displayed as net cash. Current ratio is current assets divided by current liabilities.
Capex and investment intensity
Dominion is currently executing one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in American utility history, dedicating $65 billion through 2030. In 2025 alone, capital expenditures reached 76.6% of revenue, directing funds toward high-voltage transmission lines and the massive Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind array. Because construction outlays occur well ahead of customer billing, free cash flow remained negative at $6.83 billion over the trailing twelve months. This immense spending is not wasteful empire-building; it represents the physical creation of regulated assets. Under Virginia law, roughly three-quarters of these investments qualify for rapid cost recovery, turning front-loaded construction dollars directly into long-term compounding profits.
The table compares up to five fiscal years of capital expenditure and research-and-development investment.
| Fiscal year | Capital expenditure | R&D spend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | USD 12.6B | -- |
| 2024 | USD 12.4B | -- |
| 2023 | USD 10.2B | -- |
| 2022 | USD 7.6B | -- |
| 2021 | USD 6B | USD 20M |
Behind the synthesisDominion Energy: How Each Individual AI Forecaster Opinion Shapes the Global Consensus
This publication’s recorded synthesis allocated voting influence across 14 advisor opinions. The weights and rationales below are retained from that synthesis.
The ensemble demonstrates strong consensus regarding the underlying operational engine: unmatched electric volume demand from Northern Virginia's data centers anchors an aggressive capital program compounding regulated rate base at eight to ten percent annually. However, sharp analytical divergence divides views on capital financing and corporate destiny. One camp models mechanical share-price convergence toward the pending all-stock combination terms, emphasizing balance-sheet de-risking, procurement scale, and statutory approval timetables. The opposing contrarian stance warns that five-percent sovereign bond yields, perpetual negative free cash flow, and equity dilution will compress equity returns, particularly if political pushback limits ratepayer cost-sharing. Weights prioritize reports demonstrating rigorous primary-source verification, statutory regulatory comprehension, and balanced accounting for debt-refinancing friction. Perspectives assuming unconditional multiple expansion or catastrophic balance-sheet insolvency are heavily downweighted in favor of empirically grounded analyses that reflect Virginia's rider protections and the fixed exchange-ratio arbitrage floor.
All 14 opinions
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 · 2026-07-24 releaseWeight: 14.0%
Exhibits superior forensic rigor, primary source grounding, and procedural understanding of Virginia's statutory review timetable. The analysis astutely separates transaction-spread mechanics from macro-driven acquirer de-rating while quantifying offshore wind risk-sharing thresholds, justifying the highest individual weight across the ensemble.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra · 2026-09-03 releaseWeight: 12.0%
Demonstrates outstanding analytical discipline by explicitly conditioning its long-term financial grid on the standalone branch while evaluating merger probabilities objectively. Its forensic examination of cash conversion, dilution, and balance-sheet commitments grounds the forecast in empirical reality, deserving a primary weighting.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 10.0%
Offers robust multi-dimensional analysis reconciling contracted hyperscaler interconnection backlogs with the definitive transaction terms. The framework effectively assesses capital-structure implications across both merger consummation and standalone branches, maintaining high causal consistency and justifying an above-average relative weighting.
Sherlock Holmes AI
The Whistleblower
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 9.0%
This report provides strong primary documentation regarding the pending combination, offshore wind construction milestones, and statutory cost-recovery riders in Virginia. While its operational trajectory is well reasoned, it slightly understates the balance-sheet friction from sustained five-percent benchmark interest rates, justifying a balanced core allocation.
Ray Dalio AI
The Strategist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 9.0%
Supplies rigorous long-term macroeconomic and credit analysis, correctly tracing funds-from-operations thresholds and rider recovery dynamics. The thesis maintains excellent causal consistency across capital-intensity cycles, though its standalone price trajectory slightly overlooks intermediate merger arbitrage volatility, meriting an upper-tier weight.
Niccolo Machiavelli AI
The Insider
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 8.0%
Demonstrates insightful political economy analysis regarding regulatory rate negotiations and hyperscaler infrastructure cost allocations. The perspective accurately models how customer bill concessions mitigate intervention risk, but maintains somewhat optimistic assumptions regarding post-merger synergy realization velocity in an elevated rate environment.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Presents sound economic reasoning distinguishing voluntary infrastructure rate-base investment from operational decay. The analysis provides clear valuation bridges linking authorized returns to intrinsic book value, though it relies somewhat heavily on seamless post-merger integration assumptions, meriting a moderate, quality-grounded portfolio weight.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Provides well-documented primary research on Virginia's approved large-load tariff structures and the Stonepeak infrastructure partnership. The analysis accurately traces rate-base compounding mechanics, though its valuation framework assumes relatively generous terminal price-to-earnings multiples given prevailing sovereign debt yields, supporting a solid mid-tier weight.
J.P. Morgan AI
The Titan
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 7.0%
Offers a detailed evaluation of transmission chokepoint economics and credit-rating enhancement potential under combined ownership. While structurally sound, the analysis incorporates somewhat aggressive multiple-expansion assumptions that underestimate the friction of a five-percent Treasury regime, supporting a moderate weight.
Warren Buffett AI
The Value Seeker
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 6.0%
Effectively evaluates the natural monopoly franchise and long-term earnings compounding embedded in Northern Virginia's digital infrastructure corridor. The perspective is well supported but slightly understates near-term financing drag and equity issuance friction prior to commercial asset energization, warranting a measured core weight.
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 5.0%
Correctly highlights how continuous capital-expenditure financing creates equity dilution that tempers headline rate-base expansion. While the core mechanism is sound and causally consistent, the framework discounts the strategic valuation backstop provided by the agreed share exchange terms, justifying a conservative allocation.
Elon Musk AI
The Visionary
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 3.0%
The contrarian critique regarding severe free cash flow deficits and bond-yield competition provides a necessary analytical counterweight. However, the thesis exaggerates regulatory denial risks and ignores statutory capital protections under Virginia's rider frameworks, warranting a modest weighting strictly for downside risk-modeling purposes.
Michael Burry AI
The Vulture
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 2.0%
Provides an incisive stress test regarding debt refinancing drag and negative free cash flow vulnerability during monetary tightening. However, the thesis substantially underweights Virginia's protective rider statutes and contractual hyperscaler tariff backstops, resulting in an excessively pessimistic path that warrants only minimal weight.
Superintelligence AI
The Anthropologist
Google Gemini 3.8 Flash · 2026-09-02 releaseWeight: 1.0%
Identifies genuine friction regarding capital intensity and per-share dilution under restrictive monetary conditions. Nevertheless, the analysis is heavily discounted due to internal contradictions, an overly punitive stance that disregards statutory rider cost recovery, and unsubstantiated claims of immediate thermodynamic equity destruction.
References & Context
Research Provenance
Analysis generated by iPulse AI Engine v7 using recorded market data, operating under the editorial standards and supervision of Russlan Ramdowar, Editor-in-Chief.
External references below are sources recorded by the researcher agents for this Dominion Energy forecast batch.
Primary analysis inputs
- iPulse AI Multi-Agent Forecasts — independent analyst personas, model outputs, and consensus synthesis.
- iPulse AI Global Events Context — macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and industry-event context.
- Structured market history — prices, distributions, volatility, identifiers, and listing metadata.
- Company earnings and financial statements — revenue, profitability, balance-sheet, cash-flow, and investment trends.
- Researcher web evidence — public sources consulted to challenge and contextualize the forecast thesis.
Independent AI Advisor panel
- AI Advisors
- 14
- AI Researchers
- 11
- AI Thinkers
- 3
Sources retained from AI Researcher searches
Asset-specific · Researcher web36 available sources from this batch (106 recorded). The first 15 are shown below; expand to read the rest.
- SCC Data Center Initiatives Facts and Figures Feb2026 scc.virginia.gov
- Virginia SCC - SCC Facts scc.virginia.gov
- Virginia SCC - SCC Issues Order on DEV Biennial Review 2025 scc.virginia.gov
- Virginia SCC - Submit Public Comments scc.virginia.gov
- 10-Q sec.gov
- DOMINION ENERGY, INC - Form 425 - FY2026 sec.gov
- DOMINION ENERGY, INC - Form 425 - FY2026 sec.gov
- DOMINION ENERGY, INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 sec.gov
- DOMINION ENERGY, INC - Form DEFM14A - FY2026 sec.gov
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/753308/000110465926087576/tm2614888-19_424b3.htm?utm_source=openai sec.gov
- NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine in a $67 ... delmorganco.com
- Proposed acquisition of Dominion Energy by NextEra Energy en.wikipedia.org
- Dominion Energy Q2 Earnings Call Highlights finance.yahoo.com
- NextEra Energy (NEE) Stock Looks Fairly Priced As Merger Approval Looms Large finance.yahoo.com
- Dominion Q2 2026 slides: data centers surge, offshore wind 81% done By Investing.com investing.com
Show 21 more sources
- Earnings call transcript: Dominion Energy tops Q2 2026 estimates on revenue By Investing.com investing.com
- Rewiring AI: NextEra Energy Sparks a Mega Merger | Investing.com investing.com
- Dominion Energy Announces Second-Quarter 2026 Results investors.dominionenergy.com
- NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine, Creating the World's Largest Regulated Electric Utility Business and North America's Premier Energy Infrastructure Platform Benefiting Customers investors.dominionenergy.com
- Dominion Energy Newsroom - Dominion Energy Announces Second-Quarter 2026 Results news.dominionenergy.com
- Dominion Energy Newsroom - Dominion Energy Announces Second-Quarter 2026 Results news.dominionenergy.com
- NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announce transformational Virginia benefits package that puts customers first and positions the Commonwealth as a global energy leader - Sep 14, 2026 newsroom.nexteraenergy.com
- NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine, Creating the World's Largest Regulated Electric Utility Business and North America's Premier Energy Infrastructure Platform Benefiting Customers - May 18, 2026 newsroom.nexteraenergy.com
- Cost of CVOW Project Rises to USD 10.7 Billion, Completion on Track for 2026 - offshoreWIND.biz offshorewind.biz
- Dominion Energy Inc. (via Public) / Proxy Results (Form 8-K) publicnow.com
- Dominion Energy 2025 Form 10-K s2.q4cdn.com
- PowerPoint Presentation s2.q4cdn.com
- Dominion Is The Better Leg Of The Merger With NextEra (NYSE:NEE) | Seeking Alpha seekingalpha.com
- NextEra Energy (NEE) Stock Price History 1968-2026 stockanalysis.com
- NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) to combine with Dominion Energy in stock+cash deal stocktitan.net
- NextEra Shareholders Approve Key Steps for Dominion Merger - The Globe and Mail theglobeandmail.com
- NextEra (NEE) eyes $400B buyout of Dominion Energy (D) stock - TheStreet thestreet.com
- Dominion Energy reports Q2 2026 operating EPS $0.79, GAAP EPS $0.37; reaffirms 2026 guidance — TradingView News tradingview.com
- Dominion offshore wind project cost rises nearly $300M | Utility Dive utilitydive.com
- Dominion says largest US offshore wind project on track | Utility Dive utilitydive.com
- Dominion upbeat on offshore wind as cost estimate eases, sales rise | Utility Dive utilitydive.com
70 additional sources are recorded in this batch; their citation details are not available in this publication.
Context retained with this Consensus
The same public-safe market, global-event, and fundamental context supplied to the AI Advisor panel.
Global context snapshot
2025 Full-Year Global Market and World-Events Context
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · Knowledge cutoff 2025-12-31
This full-year context package covers the principal geopolitical, economic, monetary-policy, technology, trade, energy, and institutional developments that shaped global markets during 2025. It gives the forecasting model a chronological account of major world events together with their likely transmission into growth, inflation, interest rates, supply chains, commodities, currencies, public markets, and sector-level investment conditions.
Archived context covering 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31. Its recorded scope includes technology and capital cycle; trade and industrial policy; monetary policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
Show moreShow less
- File size
- 90.8K bytes
- Words
- 13.3K words
- Characters
- 90.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 22.7K tokens
The package also includes monthly and quarterly macroeconomic and cross-asset reference tables spanning US and international growth, central-bank policy, sovereign yields, major equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, industrial and precious metals, and digital assets. Quarterly and full-year high-impact summaries are integrated; monthly quantitative series remain working values pending final audit, and that qualification is part of the preserved context.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek shock and AI economics reset | 2025-01-27 | OPEN ENDED TREND |
| US tariff regime escalation and trade-system rupture | 2025-02-01 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Federal Reserve easing cycle after a prolonged hold | 2025-09-17 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
2026 Year-to-Date Global Market and World-Events Context Through September 20
Download Archived SnapshotCoverage 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20 · Knowledge cutoff 2026-09-20
January 1-September 20, 2026: monetary tightening, energy security, trade restrictions, AI financing and divergent growth; five leading market themes.
Archived context covering 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-20. Its recorded scope includes monetary policy and rates; geopolitics energy and shipping; trade and industrial policy. Selected highlights reflect the analysis cutoff, not current world conditions.
Show moreShow less
- File size
- 84.8K bytes
- Words
- 12.4K words
- Characters
- 84.8K characters
- Est. tokens (characters ÷ 4)
- 21.2K tokens
Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%; ECB hike is in force and BOJ increase starts September 24. Markets through September 18, bitcoin through September 19.
| Selected highlights from this archived snapshot | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed monetary tightening amid persistent inflation | 2026-01-30 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
| Iran/Hormuz conflict and wider energy-security disruption | 2026-02-28 | ONGOING |
| Tariff legal reset and strategic supply restrictions | 2026-02-20 | ACTIVE POLICY REGIME |
Representative Sources of the Context File
And more sources from the retained context package.
Fundamental Context Passed as Input to the Models
Time range: Annual fiscal periods: 2014-12-31–2025-12-31, 12 periods; Quarterly fiscal periods: 2023-09-30–2026-06-30, 12 periods.
Currencies cited: USD (quote USD; primary reporting USD; converted/valuation USD).
Show moreShow less
Income statement
9 fieldsdepreciationAndAmortization · ebit · ebitda · grossProfit · +5 more fields
Balance sheet
12 fieldscash · commonStockSharesOutstanding · longTermDebt · netDebt · +8 more fields
Cash flow
5 fieldscapitalExpenditures · dividendsPaid · freeCashFlow · salePurchaseOfStock · +1 more field
End of the paywalled preview
The excerpt from Deep Dive: detailed analysis to this notice is the simplified paywalled content included on this page. A signed-in, verified account with the required subscription provides the full interactive interface and the additional research, datasets and tools listed below.
Those additional materials are not included in this preview and cannot be revealed by removing its visual restrictions.
Additional with full access
Individual AI Advisor reports
- Investment theses
- Bull and bear scenarios and alpha signals
- Drivers, headwinds, risks and opportunities
- Quarterly forecast rationale
- Advisor research references and configuration
Additional datasets and interactive tools
- Interactive forecast comparisons
- Available detailed financial statements
- Market history and corporate-action adjustments
- Eligible historical publication workspaces
Explore complete public research examples
These public assets show the complete AI Consensus research. Their findings concern those assets, not this report.