UBS Group (UBSG.SIX) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS
Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.
Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026
Universal Investor AI
The Polymath FrameworkModel rating
Neutral
5-Year Return Est.
+41.2%
Includes 0.68% annual net dividend contribution
1. Investment Thesis — Base Case
The central tension is that UBS has won the argument it was asked to win and now faces one it cannot control. Integration is finished, costs are out, and returns are back near pre-acquisition levels; the market has paid for that in full. What remains undecided is how much of future retained earnings Bern claims. Base case: a workable compromise emerges during 2027, law arrives around 2028 with a long transition, buybacks continue at a reduced but meaningful pace, and the shares compound with book valuebook valueThe net asset value of a company calculated as total assets minus total liabilities.View full glossary entry rather than re-rating further. Investors own a well-run, fully-valued capital-return machine, not a discounted recovery story.
- TTM net income USD 9.28bn and EPS USD 2.87; base case assumes roughly USD 11-12bn normalised by 2029.
- At CHF 41.80 the shares carry about two times tangible book, demanding durable mid-teens returns on tangible equity.
- Book compounding near 8% with 2% annual share shrinkage supports roughly CHF 57 by 2031 on a slightly lower multiple.
Historical prices and published forecast
- Observed price
- Published advisor forecast
View chart values
| Series | Date | Value (CHF) |
|---|---|---|
| Observed price | 2021-09-16 | 14.88 |
| Observed price | 2021-09-21 | 14.47 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-01 | 14.95 |
| Observed price | 2021-10-11 | 15.56 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-01 | 16.79 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-06 | 16.82 |
| Observed price | 2021-11-21 | 16.37 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-06 | 16.63 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-16 | 16.16 |
| Observed price | 2021-12-26 | 16.42 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-16 | 17.96 |
| Observed price | 2022-01-31 | 17.28 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-10 | 19.69 |
| Observed price | 2022-02-15 | 19.00 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-07 | 14.52 |
| Observed price | 2022-03-12 | 15.89 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-02 | 18.26 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-07 | 17.10 |
| Observed price | 2022-04-27 | 16.67 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-07 | 16.62 |
| Observed price | 2022-05-22 | 17.71 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-06 | 18.19 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-17 | 15.17 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-22 | 15.10 |
| Observed price | 2022-06-27 | 16.09 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-22 | 16.12 |
| Observed price | 2022-07-27 | 14.69 |
| Observed price | 2022-08-16 | 16.07 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-01 | 14.99 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-11 | 16.05 |
| Observed price | 2022-09-26 | 14.61 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-06 | 14.96 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-11 | 14.07 |
| Observed price | 2022-10-31 | 15.96 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-10 | 17.44 |
| Observed price | 2022-11-21 | 17.48 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-11 | 17.30 |
| Observed price | 2022-12-16 | 16.53 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-05 | 18.24 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-10 | 18.82 |
| Observed price | 2023-01-25 | 19.58 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-05 | 20.0 |
| Observed price | 2023-02-15 | 20.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-07 | 20.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-17 | 17.89 |
| Observed price | 2023-03-27 | 17.77 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-01 | 19.06 |
| Observed price | 2023-04-22 | 18.10 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-12 | 17.17 |
| Observed price | 2023-05-17 | 17.39 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-06 | 18.24 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-16 | 18.49 |
| Observed price | 2023-06-26 | 17.57 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-07 | 17.41 |
| Observed price | 2023-07-27 | 18.96 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-01 | 18.96 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-21 | 20.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-08-26 | 21.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-15 | 23.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-09-20 | 23.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-06 | 22.3 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-16 | 22.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-10-21 | 21.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-10 | 22.1 |
| Observed price | 2023-11-30 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-05 | 24.5 |
| Observed price | 2023-12-21 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-05 | 25.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-20 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-01-25 | 25.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-09 | 24.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-02-19 | 24.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-11 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-03-31 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-05 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-10 | 27.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-04-30 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-05 | 24.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-26 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-05-31 | 28.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-15 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-06-25 | 26.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-15 | 27.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-07-20 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-05 | 23.8 |
| Observed price | 2024-08-25 | 26.4 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-04 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-09 | 24.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-09-29 | 26.0 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-04 | 26.5 |
| Observed price | 2024-10-20 | 28.2 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-04 | 27.1 |
| Observed price | 2024-11-09 | 28.7 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-04 | 28.9 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-09 | 28.3 |
| Observed price | 2024-12-19 | 26.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-09 | 30.3 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-14 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-01-29 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-23 | 30.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-02-28 | 31.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-05 | 29.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-10 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-03-31 | 27.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-10 | 22.9 |
| Observed price | 2025-04-25 | 24.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-15 | 27.7 |
| Observed price | 2025-05-30 | 26.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-04 | 27.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-06-20 | 25.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-05 | 27.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-15 | 28.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-07-25 | 30.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-04 | 30.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-08-25 | 32.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-09 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-19 | 33.0 |
| Observed price | 2025-09-24 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-14 | 31.6 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-19 | 30.1 |
| Observed price | 2025-10-29 | 30.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-11-24 | 29.8 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-04 | 31.4 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-09 | 33.2 |
| Observed price | 2025-12-24 | 36.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-08 | 38.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-18 | 37.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-01-29 | 36.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-13 | 32.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-02-28 | 32.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-15 | 29.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-03-20 | 29.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-09 | 32.7 |
| Observed price | 2026-04-25 | 32.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-05 | 34.9 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-10 | 35.0 |
| Observed price | 2026-05-25 | 37.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-04 | 37.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-19 | 41.2 |
| Observed price | 2026-06-30 | 40.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-15 | 44.1 |
| Observed price | 2026-07-25 | 42.5 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-09 | 43.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-08-19 | 42.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-03 | 44.8 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-13 | 43.3 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-24 | 39.4 |
| Observed price | 2026-09-25 | 40.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-09-18 | 41.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2026-12-18 | 43.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-03-18 | 45.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-06-18 | 43.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-09-18 | 45.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2027-12-18 | 46.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-03-18 | 44.1 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-06-18 | 45.5 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-09-18 | 46.4 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2028-12-18 | 47.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-03-18 | 48.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-06-18 | 46.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-09-18 | 48.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2029-12-18 | 49.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-03-18 | 50.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-06-18 | 51.6 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-09-18 | 52.2 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2030-12-18 | 53.7 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-03-18 | 54.8 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-06-18 | 55.9 |
| Published advisor forecast | 2031-09-18 | 57.0 |
2. Scenarios & Signals
Bull case
The bull case activates when Bern's compromise and America's deposit engine arrive together. A 50/50 AT1 substitution caps the marginal capital burden, freeing management to lift annual distributions sharply; simultaneously the OCC charter turns US wealth into a spread business, pushing group RoTEreturn on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets.View full glossary entry toward 18%. Each reinforces the other, because higher returns on a stable capital base justify a higher tangible-book multiple, and buybacks executed at that multiple still add value. The shares would clear CHF 70 well before 2031.
Bear case
The bear case begins in parliament and ends in the market. Hardline 90% CET1 backing lands during 2027, buybacks are suspended to build capital, and the equity story loses its per-share lever just as a capital-markets downturn strips cyclical revenue from the Investment Bank and wealth transaction lines. A new chief executive inherits both problems. Structural return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets. settles near 11%, two times tangible book becomes indefensible, and the shares retrace toward the high twenties.
Current crowd narrative
The settled belief is that Ermotti pulled off the deal of the decade and Bern will ultimately blink. Consensus of CHF 44.11 sits essentially at spot after a 31% ninety-day run [11][26], with integration completion and 16-17% RoCET1 treated as the new baseline rather than a peak. The anchoring bias: investors price the capital bill as headline noise, not as a permanent claim on retained earnings.
Alpha-gap assessment
The crowd modestly overestimates these shares, implying mild overpricing rather than a dramatic gap. Two pieces of evidence point the same way: roughly two times tangible book demands durable mid-teens return on tangible equityReturn on tangible equity (ROTE) measures profit generated relative to shareholders' tangible equity after excluding intangible assets., yet the 2Q26 beat leaned on a record Investment Bank quarter and 23% transaction-income growth [1], both cyclical. Meanwhile the Swiss capital requirement is a real, dated obligation competing with buybacks for six to eight years [13], which the price treats as a rounding error.
Convergence catalyst
The final Swiss law text, expected through the National Council in December 2026 and resolution during 2027 [17][20], is the trigger. It converts a negotiating range into a number. The first observable sign of repricing will be the size and duration of the buyback authorisation guided alongside FY2026 results.
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