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UBSG.SIX
UBS Group
Financials · Diversified Banks

Swiss financial group providing global wealth management, asset management, investment banking and Swiss retail and corporate banking.

HQ: SwitzerlandListed: Switzerland

AI Opinions

Compare independent AI Advisor forecasts, ratings, scenarios, risks, configurations, sources, and step-by-step prediction paths for UBS Group.

UBS Group (UBSG.SIX) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 18 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

The central tension is that UBS has won the argument it was asked to win and now faces one it cannot control. Integration is finished, costs are out, and returns are back near pre-acquisition levels; the market has paid for that in full. What remains undecided is how much of future retained earnings Bern claims. Base case: a workable compromise emerges during 2027, law arrives around 2028 with a long transition, buybacks continue at a reduced but meaningful pace, and the shares compound with rather than re-rating further. Investors own a well-run, fully-valued capital-return machine, not a discounted recovery story.

  • TTM net income USD 9.28bn and USD 2.87; base case assumes roughly USD 11-12bn normalised by 2029.
  • At CHF 41.80 the shares carry about two times tangible book, demanding durable mid-teens returns on tangible equity.
  • Book compounding near 8% with 2% annual share shrinkage supports roughly CHF 57 by 2031 on a slightly lower multiple.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in CHF.9.7822.6635.5448.4261.3Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in CHF.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (CHF)
Observed price2021-09-1614.88
Observed price2021-09-2114.47
Observed price2021-10-0114.95
Observed price2021-10-1115.56
Observed price2021-11-0116.79
Observed price2021-11-0616.82
Observed price2021-11-2116.37
Observed price2021-12-0616.63
Observed price2021-12-1616.16
Observed price2021-12-2616.42
Observed price2022-01-1617.96
Observed price2022-01-3117.28
Observed price2022-02-1019.69
Observed price2022-02-1519.00
Observed price2022-03-0714.52
Observed price2022-03-1215.89
Observed price2022-04-0218.26
Observed price2022-04-0717.10
Observed price2022-04-2716.67
Observed price2022-05-0716.62
Observed price2022-05-2217.71
Observed price2022-06-0618.19
Observed price2022-06-1715.17
Observed price2022-06-2215.10
Observed price2022-06-2716.09
Observed price2022-07-2216.12
Observed price2022-07-2714.69
Observed price2022-08-1616.07
Observed price2022-09-0114.99
Observed price2022-09-1116.05
Observed price2022-09-2614.61
Observed price2022-10-0614.96
Observed price2022-10-1114.07
Observed price2022-10-3115.96
Observed price2022-11-1017.44
Observed price2022-11-2117.48
Observed price2022-12-1117.30
Observed price2022-12-1616.53
Observed price2023-01-0518.24
Observed price2023-01-1018.82
Observed price2023-01-2519.58
Observed price2023-02-0520.0
Observed price2023-02-1520.3
Observed price2023-03-0720.3
Observed price2023-03-1717.89
Observed price2023-03-2717.77
Observed price2023-04-0119.06
Observed price2023-04-2218.10
Observed price2023-05-1217.17
Observed price2023-05-1717.39
Observed price2023-06-0618.24
Observed price2023-06-1618.49
Observed price2023-06-2617.57
Observed price2023-07-0717.41
Observed price2023-07-2718.96
Observed price2023-08-0118.96
Observed price2023-08-2120.8
Observed price2023-08-2621.8
Observed price2023-09-1523.5
Observed price2023-09-2023.3
Observed price2023-10-0622.3
Observed price2023-10-1622.5
Observed price2023-10-2121.1
Observed price2023-11-1022.1
Observed price2023-11-3024.8
Observed price2023-12-0524.5
Observed price2023-12-2126.4
Observed price2024-01-0525.5
Observed price2024-01-2025.0
Observed price2024-01-2525.7
Observed price2024-02-0924.2
Observed price2024-02-1924.4
Observed price2024-03-1127.2
Observed price2024-03-3127.7
Observed price2024-04-0528.4
Observed price2024-04-1027.0
Observed price2024-04-3024.3
Observed price2024-05-0524.9
Observed price2024-05-2628.3
Observed price2024-05-3128.5
Observed price2024-06-1527.2
Observed price2024-06-2526.5
Observed price2024-07-1527.9
Observed price2024-07-2027.2
Observed price2024-08-0523.8
Observed price2024-08-2526.4
Observed price2024-09-0425.0
Observed price2024-09-0924.3
Observed price2024-09-2926.0
Observed price2024-10-0426.5
Observed price2024-10-2028.2
Observed price2024-11-0427.1
Observed price2024-11-0928.7
Observed price2024-12-0428.9
Observed price2024-12-0928.3
Observed price2024-12-1926.8
Observed price2025-01-0930.3
Observed price2025-01-1429.7
Observed price2025-01-2932.4
Observed price2025-02-2330.1
Observed price2025-02-2831.0
Observed price2025-03-0529.6
Observed price2025-03-1027.7
Observed price2025-03-3127.2
Observed price2025-04-1022.9
Observed price2025-04-2524.8
Observed price2025-05-1527.7
Observed price2025-05-3026.2
Observed price2025-06-0427.8
Observed price2025-06-2025.0
Observed price2025-07-0527.6
Observed price2025-07-1528.4
Observed price2025-07-2530.6
Observed price2025-08-0430.2
Observed price2025-08-2532.4
Observed price2025-09-0932.0
Observed price2025-09-1933.0
Observed price2025-09-2432.8
Observed price2025-10-1431.6
Observed price2025-10-1930.1
Observed price2025-10-2930.8
Observed price2025-11-2429.8
Observed price2025-12-0431.4
Observed price2025-12-0933.2
Observed price2025-12-2436.9
Observed price2026-01-0838.1
Observed price2026-01-1837.3
Observed price2026-01-2936.8
Observed price2026-02-1332.1
Observed price2026-02-2832.0
Observed price2026-03-1529.7
Observed price2026-03-2029.2
Observed price2026-04-0932.7
Observed price2026-04-2532.8
Observed price2026-05-0534.9
Observed price2026-05-1035.0
Observed price2026-05-2537.4
Observed price2026-06-0437.5
Observed price2026-06-1941.2
Observed price2026-06-3040.1
Observed price2026-07-1544.1
Observed price2026-07-2542.5
Observed price2026-08-0943.8
Observed price2026-08-1942.8
Observed price2026-09-0344.8
Observed price2026-09-1343.3
Observed price2026-09-2439.4
Observed price2026-09-2540.8
Published advisor forecast2026-09-1841.8
Published advisor forecast2026-12-1843.8
Published advisor forecast2027-03-1845.2
Published advisor forecast2027-06-1843.8
Published advisor forecast2027-09-1845.6
Published advisor forecast2027-12-1846.5
Published advisor forecast2028-03-1844.1
Published advisor forecast2028-06-1845.5
Published advisor forecast2028-09-1846.4
Published advisor forecast2028-12-1847.8
Published advisor forecast2029-03-1848.7
Published advisor forecast2029-06-1846.8
Published advisor forecast2029-09-1848.2
Published advisor forecast2029-12-1849.6
Published advisor forecast2030-03-1850.6
Published advisor forecast2030-06-1851.6
Published advisor forecast2030-09-1852.2
Published advisor forecast2030-12-1853.7
Published advisor forecast2031-03-1854.8
Published advisor forecast2031-06-1855.9
Published advisor forecast2031-09-1857.0

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

The bull case activates when Bern's compromise and America's deposit engine arrive together. A 50/50 AT1 substitution caps the marginal capital burden, freeing management to lift annual distributions sharply; simultaneously the OCC charter turns US wealth into a spread business, pushing group toward 18%. Each reinforces the other, because higher returns on a stable capital base justify a higher tangible-book multiple, and buybacks executed at that multiple still add value. The shares would clear CHF 70 well before 2031.

Bear case

The bear case begins in parliament and ends in the market. Hardline 90% CET1 backing lands during 2027, buybacks are suspended to build capital, and the equity story loses its per-share lever just as a capital-markets downturn strips cyclical revenue from the Investment Bank and wealth transaction lines. A new chief executive inherits both problems. Structural settles near 11%, two times tangible book becomes indefensible, and the shares retrace toward the high twenties.

Current crowd narrative

The settled belief is that Ermotti pulled off the deal of the decade and Bern will ultimately blink. Consensus of CHF 44.11 sits essentially at spot after a 31% ninety-day run [11][26], with integration completion and 16-17% RoCET1 treated as the new baseline rather than a peak. The anchoring bias: investors price the capital bill as headline noise, not as a permanent claim on retained earnings.

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd modestly overestimates these shares, implying mild overpricing rather than a dramatic gap. Two pieces of evidence point the same way: roughly two times tangible book demands durable mid-teens , yet the 2Q26 beat leaned on a record Investment Bank quarter and 23% transaction-income growth [1], both cyclical. Meanwhile the Swiss capital requirement is a real, dated obligation competing with buybacks for six to eight years [13], which the price treats as a rounding error.

Convergence catalyst

The final Swiss law text, expected through the National Council in December 2026 and resolution during 2027 [17][20], is the trigger. It converts a negotiating range into a number. The first observable sign of repricing will be the size and duration of the buyback authorisation guided alongside FY2026 results.

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UBS Group (UBSG) AI Opinions & Stock Price Targets | iPulse AI