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Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Aerospace and defense company providing advanced systems and services for commercial, military, and government customers.

HQ: United StatesListed: United States

Historical AI Opinions

Audit every published iPulse AI forecast batch and immutable historical research document for RTX.

RTX Corporation (RTX.NYSE) AI OPINIONS & ADVISOR ANALYSIS

Read and compare the 14 individual AI Advisor deep-dive reports, including their forecast paths, ratings, price targets, and reasoning.

Updated on 20 September 2026Deep analysis 20 September 2026

25 min readAudit All Past Forecasts
Universal Investor AI advisor icon

Universal Investor AI

Gemini 3.8 Flash
The Polymath FrameworkAI Researcher

Model rating

Buy

5-Year Return Est.

+75.6%

Includes 1.02% annual net dividend contribution

1. Investment Thesis — Base Case

RTX represents a premier aerospace and defense whose economic engine is entering a multiyear expansion phase. Evidence confirms that the market's obsession with past GTF powder metal liabilities and near-term has created an attractive entry point at $194. The company's $289 billion , supplemented by the $22.9 billion Tomahawk award, ensures durable top-line compounding above 8% annually. As high-margin volume accelerates at Collins Aerospace and munitions production rates double at Raytheon, operating drop-through will expand consolidated beyond 12.5%, driving superior compounding.

  • Full-year 2026 adjusted reaching $7.25 anchors robust baseline earnings power and validates operational execution targets.
  • Expanding forward toward $10.5 billion by 2028 justifies multiple re-rating to $250 per share.
  • Implied of $360 billion reflects durable mid-single-digit across long-cycle defense programs.

Historical prices and published forecast

Historical prices and published forecastObserved prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.44.81120.9196.99273.08349.16Sep 2021Mar 2024Sep 2026Mar 2029Sep 2031Forecast starts
  • Observed price
  • Published advisor forecast
Observed prices and the selected advisor's published projection share a split-adjusted price basis. Prices after the forecast start are later observations, not information known at publication. Forecasts are uncertain. Values in USD.
View chart values
Historical prices and published forecast — published chart values
SeriesDateValue (USD)
Observed price2021-09-1484.8
Observed price2021-09-1983.7
Observed price2021-10-0689.3
Observed price2021-10-1991.3
Observed price2021-11-0188.5
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Observed price2021-12-0179.8
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Observed price2021-12-2785.9
Observed price2022-01-1491.2
Observed price2022-01-2288.5
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Observed price2022-02-2292.6
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Observed price2022-03-1595.9
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Observed price2024-01-1186.2
Observed price2024-01-2087.2
Observed price2024-02-0691.7
Observed price2024-02-1590.9
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Observed price2025-06-26143
Observed price2025-07-14148
Observed price2025-07-18152
Observed price2025-07-31157
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Observed price2025-12-04169
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Observed price2026-01-12193
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Observed price2026-06-21185
Observed price2026-07-04200
Observed price2026-07-17194
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Observed price2026-09-02202
Observed price2026-09-07199
Observed price2026-09-17194
Observed price2026-09-21194
Published advisor forecast2026-09-18194
Published advisor forecast2026-12-18202
Published advisor forecast2027-03-18212
Published advisor forecast2027-06-18218
Published advisor forecast2027-09-18227
Published advisor forecast2027-12-18234
Published advisor forecast2028-03-18243
Published advisor forecast2028-06-18248
Published advisor forecast2028-09-18255
Published advisor forecast2028-12-18260
Published advisor forecast2029-03-18268
Published advisor forecast2029-06-18274
Published advisor forecast2029-09-18282
Published advisor forecast2029-12-18288
Published advisor forecast2030-03-18296
Published advisor forecast2030-06-18299
Published advisor forecast2030-09-18305
Published advisor forecast2030-12-18308
Published advisor forecast2031-03-18314
Published advisor forecast2031-06-18321
Published advisor forecast2031-09-18324

2. Scenarios & Signals

Bull case

An aggressive expansion of allied defense budgets activates this upside scenario, accelerating international orders across Patriot, LTAMDS, and Tomahawk effectors. Concurrently, rapid debottlenecking in commercial aerospace supply chains allows Pratt & Whitney to deliver geared turbofans ahead of schedule, expanding high-margin aftermarket shop visits. This dual acceleration pushes annual past $12 billion by 2028, driving aggressive and re-rating the equity above $290 per share.

Bear case

Severe sub-tier supplier insolvency and persistent raw material shortages activate the downside scenario, stalling Raytheon missile assembly lines and stranding work-in-process inventory. Compounding this, a synchronized global airline recession curbs commercial flight hours, abruptly compressing Collins Aerospace aftermarket parts demand and . Incurring unexpected fixed-price contract overrun charges while absorption rates decline compresses below 9%, precipitating multiple contraction and driving shares down toward $145.

Current crowd narrative

The consensus narrative treats RTX as fully priced following its recovery from the 2023 powdered metal crisis, anchoring on a seemingly full 27x forward price-to-. The crowd assumes commercial aerospace aftermarket growth is peaking while will cap defense throughput, overlooking how multiyear munitions frameworks convert into .

Alpha-gap assessment

The crowd underestimates the earnings power embedded in RTX's record $289 billion , implying clear share underpricing. Sell-side consensus incorrectly models Raytheon as a low-margin cyclical contractor rather than an essential multiyear defense platform provider. Crucially, the market has not integrated the margin inflection from five landmark Department of Defense munitions frameworks and the recent $22.9 billion Tomahawk contract, which bypass annual appropriation volatility. As capacity expansions double munition output, operating drop-through will drive structural earnings beats through 2029.

Convergence catalyst

The decisive catalyst will be RTX's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings release in January 2027. Demonstrating sustained exceeding $8.75 billion, alongside formal recognition of landmark multiyear munitions frameworks, will definitively prove and force Wall Street analysts to aggressively upgrade forward consensus earnings estimates.

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